Table 5
Probability of remaining conviction-free as a function of time in the community by type of new conviction


Table 5
Probability of remaining conviction-free as a function of time in the community by type of new conviction
Table summary
This table displays the results of Probability of remaining conviction-free as a function of time in the community by type of new conviction. The information is grouped by Months in the community (appearing as row headers), Type of new conviction, Violent, Property, Other Criminal Code or federal statute, Administration of justice, Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-free and Conditional probability of a new conviction, calculated using probability units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Months in the communityTable 5 Note 3 Type of new convictionTable 5 Note 1
ViolentTable 5 Note 2 Property Other Criminal Code or federal statute Administration of justice
Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 5 Note 4 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 5 Note 5 Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 5 Note 4 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 5 Note 5 Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 5 Note 4 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 5 Note 5 Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 5 Note 4 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 5 Note 5
probability
0 to 3 0.96 0.04 0.92 0.08 0.96 0.04 0.85 0.15
3 to 6 0.93 0.03 0.88 0.05 0.92 0.03 0.78 0.08
6 to 9 0.90 0.03 0.84 0.04 0.90 0.03 0.73 0.06
9 to 12 0.88 0.02 0.82 0.03 0.88 0.02 0.70 0.04
12 to 15 0.86 0.02 0.80 0.02 0.86 0.02 0.68 0.03
15 to 18 0.85 0.02 0.78 0.02 0.84 0.02 0.66 0.03
18 to 21 0.83 0.02 0.77 0.02 0.83 0.02 0.65 0.02
21 to 24 0.82 0.01 0.76 0.02 0.82 0.01 0.64 0.02
24 to 27 0.81 0.01 0.75 0.01 0.81 0.01 0.63 0.02
27 to 30 0.80 0.01 0.74 0.01 0.80 0.01 0.62 0.01
30 to 33 0.79 0.01 0.73 0.01 0.79 0.01 0.61 0.01
33 to 36 0.78 0.01 0.72 0.01 0.78 0.01 0.60 0.01
36 to 39 0.78 0.01 0.71 0.01 0.77 0.01 0.60 0.01
39 to 42 0.77 0.01 0.71 0.01 0.77 0.01 0.59 0.01
42 to 45 0.76 0.01 0.71 0.01 0.76 0.01 0.59 0.01
45 to 48 0.76 < 0.01 0.70 < 0.01 0.76 0.01 0.59 < 0.01
Note 1

Reconviction is defined as any new federal statute conviction (in any province or territory) with an offence date after release from full-time custody or start of an intermittent or community sentence and before the end of the follow-up period. Someone could have more than one type of new conviction within the follow-up period and, therefore, may be represented in more than one category.

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Note 2

Violent offences are defined as crimes against the person, which include criminal harassment, uttering threats, assault, sexual assault, other sexual offences and offences in relation to sexual services, robbery, attempted murder, and homicide.

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Note 3

Counts only the days where the individual was not in custody.

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Note 4

Estimated survival probabilities by three-month intervals. In this analysis, survival is interpreted as remaining conviction-free.

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Note 5

The probability of a new conviction within the three-month interval given that the individual has remained conviction-free up to the start of that interval.

Return to note 5 referrer

Note: This table presents data for the 2015/2016 cohort of adults supervised by five provincial correctional programs: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Centre for Justice and Community Safety Statistics, Linked Canadian Correctional Services Survey, Integrated Criminal Court Survey and Canadian Vital Statistics – Death Database.
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