Table 4
Probability of remaining conviction-free (any type) as a function of time in the community by type of correctional supervision


Table 4
Probability of remaining conviction-free (any type) as a function of time in the community by type of correctional supervision
Table summary
This table displays the results of Probability of remaining conviction-free (any type) as a function of time in the community by type of correctional supervision. The information is grouped by Months in the community (appearing as row headers), Type of correctional supervision, All, Custody and Community (appearing as column headers).
Months in the communityTable 4 Note 2 Type of correctional supervisionTable 4 Note 1
All Custody Community
Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 4 Note 3 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 4 Note 4 Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 4 Note 3 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 4 Note 4 Cumulative probability of remaining conviction-freeTable 4 Note 3 Conditional probability of a new convictionTable 4 Note 4
probability
0 to 3 0.80 0.20 0.70 0.30 0.86 0.14
3 to 6 0.72 0.11 0.58 0.17 0.80 0.08
6 to 9 0.66 0.08 0.51 0.11 0.75 0.06
9 to 12 0.62 0.06 0.47 0.09 0.72 0.05
12 to 15 0.60 0.04 0.44 0.06 0.69 0.04
15 to 18 0.58 0.03 0.42 0.05 0.67 0.03
18 to 21 0.56 0.03 0.40 0.05 0.65 0.02
21 to 24 0.54 0.03 0.38 0.04 0.64 0.02
24 to 27 0.53 0.02 0.36 0.04 0.63 0.02
27 to 30 0.52 0.02 0.35 0.03 0.61 0.02
30 to 33 0.51 0.02 0.34 0.03 0.60 0.02
33 to 36 0.50 0.02 0.33 0.03 0.59 0.02
36 to 39 0.49 0.02 0.33 0.03 0.59 0.02
39 to 42 0.48 0.01 0.32 0.02 0.58 0.01
42 to 45 0.48 0.01 0.31 0.01 0.57 0.01
45 to 48 0.47 0.01 0.31 0.01 0.57 0.01
Note 1

Type of correctional supervision is based on the correctional sentence that led to the individual's inclusion in this study. Custody supervision includes full-time custody and intermittent sentences; community supervision includes conditional sentences and probation.

Return to note 1 referrer

Note 2

Counts only the days where the individual was not in custody.

Return to note 2 referrer

Note 3

Estimated survival probabilities by three-month intervals. In this analysis, survival is interpreted as remaining conviction-free. Reconviction is defined as any new federal statute conviction (in any province or territory) with an offence date after release from full-time custody or start of an intermittent or community sentence and before the end of the follow-up period.

Return to note 3 referrer

Note 4

The probability of a new conviction within the three-month interval given that the individual has remained conviction-free up to the start of that interval.

Return to note 4 referrer

Note: This table presents data for the 2015/2016 cohort of adults supervised by five provincial correctional programs: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Centre for Justice and Community Safety Statistics, Linked Canadian Correctional Services Survey, Integrated Criminal Court Survey and Canadian Vital Statistics – Death Database.
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