Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Interactive Dashboard

Additional information

The population projections produced by Statistics Canada’s Demography Division are not intended to be interpreted as predictions about what will happen in the future. They should instead be understood as an exercise designed to investigate what the Canadian population might become in the years ahead according to various scenarios of possible future change.

For this reason, Statistics Canada always publishes several scenarios and formulates several explicit assumptions regarding the main components of population growth. Accordingly, users are encouraged to consider several scenarios when they analyze the projection results.

For more information on the most recent population projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, users are invited to consult Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories.

For more information on the projection assumptions and their rationale, users are invited to consult Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions.

Projection scenarios

The base population for these projections is derived from the official preliminary postcensal estimates of the population for Canada, provinces and territories as of July 1, 2021. In all scenarios, the population is projected until 2043 for the provinces and territories, and until 2068 for Canada as a whole.

The medium-growth (M1) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 83.7 years for males and 87.4 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on linear interpolation of recently observed migration rates (average of rates observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021) to rates observed over a long period of time (average periods 1991/1992 to 2016/2017) reached in 2030/2031, and rates that remain constant thereafter; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,795,800 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The medium-growth (M2) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 83.7 years for males and 87.4 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 1995/1996 and 2010/2011; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,795,800 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The medium-growth (M3) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 83.7 years for males and 87.4 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2003/2004 and 2008/2009; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,795,800 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The medium-growth (M4) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 83.7 years for males and 87.4 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2009/2010 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,795,800 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The medium-growth (M5) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 83.7 years for males and 87.4 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2014/2015 and 2016/2017; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,795,800 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The medium-growth (M6) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.59 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 83.7 years for males and 87.4 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on the trends observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021; the immigration rate reaches 0.83% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,795,800 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.15% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The low-growth (LG) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.40 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 82.6 years for males and 86.6 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on linear interpolation of recently observed migration rates (average of rates observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021) to rates observed over a long period of time (average periods 1991/1992 to 2016/2017) reached in 2030/2031, and rates that remain constant thereafter; the immigration rate reaches 0.65% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,259,300 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.17% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The high-growth (HG) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.79 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 84.8 years for males and 88.2 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on linear interpolation of recently observed migration rates (average of rates observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021) to rates observed over a long period of time (average periods 1991/1992 to 2016/2017) reached in 2030/2031, and rates that remain constant thereafter; the immigration rate reaches 1.20% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 2,186,000 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.12% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The slow-aging (SA) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.79 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 82.6 years for males and 86.6 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on linear interpolation of recently observed migration rates (average of rates observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021) to rates observed over a long period of time (average periods 1991/1992 to 2016/2017) reached in 2030/2031, and rates that remain constant thereafter; the immigration rate reaches 1.20% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 2,186,000 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.12% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.

The fast-aging (FA) scenario contains the following assumptions at the Canada level: the total fertility rate reaches 1.40 children per woman in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; life expectancy at birth reaches 84.8 years for males and 88.2 years for females in 2042/2043; interprovincial migration is based on linear interpolation of recently observed migration rates (average of rates observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021) to rates observed over a long period of time (average periods 1991/1992 to 2016/2017) reached in 2030/2031, and rates that remain constant thereafter; the immigration rate reaches 0.65% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter; the annual number of non-permanent residents reaches 1,259,300 in 2043 and remains constant thereafter; the net emigration rate reaches 0.17% in 2042/2043 and remains constant thereafter.