Population projections on immigration and diversity: Interactive Dashboard

Racialized groups

The "racialized" population is measured with the "visible minority" variable. It includes the persons belonging to one of the visible minority groups defined by the Employment Equity Act. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour." The visible minority population consists mainly of the following groups: South Asian, Chinese, Black, Filipino, Latin American, Arab, Southeast Asian, West Asian, Korean and Japanese.

Generation status

The respondent’s generation rank since the settlement of his/her family (meaning direct ascendants) in Canada. In these projections, immigrants are the first generation; the second generation refers to non-immigrants (born in Canada or abroad) to at least one foreign-born parent; the generations that follow (third or more) comprise non-immigrants (born in Canada or abroad) to two Canadian-born parents. This definition of generation status differs slightly from the one used in the census, which is based only on the place of birth (without regard to immigrant status).

Base population for projections

The base population of these projections is derived from 2016 Census (long-form questionnaire) data, for which the weights were adjusted to account for the population living in collective dwellings and institutions, for the census net undercoverage and for the population living on incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and Indian settlements.

Populations observed in 2016

The population figures for 2016 are as of May 10, the reference date for the 2016 Census. These population figures were extracted directly from the base population file of the projection.

Populations projected from 2017 to 2041

For the period from 2017 to 2041, these are projected populations based on eleven projection scenarios. For these years, the population figures are in person-years, that is, the number of years lived in a given state by the individuals who make up the population from January 1 to December 31 of a given year.

Projection scenario

A projection scenario is made up of a set of assumptions about the future evolution of different components. In this visualization tool, eleven scenarios are presented. Here is a brief description of each:

Reference scenario:

The reference scenario combines the following assumptions:

• A medium immigration rate reaching 8.3 immigrants per 1,000 inhabitants at the end of the projection;
• A provincial or territorial distribution of new immigrants upon arrival corresponding to the values observed in 2021 at the beginning of the projection and gradually converging towards the average distribution estimated between 2007 and 2021, reaching it at the end of the projection;
• A distribution of new immigrants by place of birth corresponding to the values observed on average between 2017 and 2021 and gradually converging to the average distribution estimated for 2007 to 2021, reaching it at the end of the projection;
• A medium gross migraproduction rate of net emigration reaching 1.5 emigrants per 1,000 inhabitants at the end of the projection;
• A medium increase in the number of non-permanent residents to 1,556,000 at the end of the projection;
• A total fertility rate of 1.40 children per woman in 2020, which rises to 1.59 children per woman at the end of the projection;
• A constantly increasing life expectancy, reaching 84.8 years for men and 88.4 years for women in 2041;
• Internal migration patterns representative of the estimated average over the following five-year periods: 1996 to 2001, 2001 to 2006, 2006 to 2011 and 2011 to 2016.

Low-immigration scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the immigration rate reaches 6.5 immigrants per 1,000 inhabitants in 2041.

High-immigration scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the immigration rate is kept constant at 11.9 immigrants per 1,000 inhabitants.

Alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the geographical distribution converges toward the average distribution estimated over the period 2017 to 2021 by 2041.

Alternative immigration composition by place of birth scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the geographical origin of immigrants is representative of the average distribution observed between 2017 and 2021 throughout the projection.

Low-growth scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except for the following five assumptions:
• A low immigration rate reaching 6.5 immigrants per 1,000 inhabitants at the end of the projection;
• A high gross migraproduction rate of net emigration reaching 1.7 emigrants per 1,000 inhabitants at the end of the projection;
• An increase in the number of non-permanent residents at the beginning of the projection followed by a slow decrease thereafter reaching 1,031,000 at the end of the projection;
• A total fertility rate of 1.40 children per woman in 2020, which decreases to 1.28 children per woman in 2027 and then increases to 1.40 children per woman at the end of the projection;
• A relatively slow rise in life expectancy, reaching 83.5 years for men and 87.4 years for women in 2041.

High-growth scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except for the following five assumptions:
• A high immigration rate maintained at 11.9 immigrants per 1,000 inhabitants;
• A low gross migraproduction rate of net emigration reaching 1.2 emigrants per 1,000 inhabitants at the end of the projection;
• A high increase in the number of non-permanent residents reaching 1,947,000 at the end of the projection;
• A total fertility rate of 1.40 children per woman in 2020, which rises to 1.79 children per woman at the end of the projection;
• A relatively rapid rise in life expectancy, reaching 85.8 years for men and 89.6 years for women in 2041.

Alternative internal migration (2011 to 2016) scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the internal migration patterns are representative of the five-year period 2011/2016.

Alternative internal migration (2006 to 2011) scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the internal migration patterns are representative of the five-year period 2006/2011.

Alternative internal migration (2001 to 2006) scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the internal migration patterns are representative of the five-year period 2001/2006.

Alternative internal migration (1996 to 2001) scenario:

• Same assumptions as the reference scenario except that the internal migration patterns are representative of the five-year period 1996/2001.

For more details on assumptions and scenarios, please refer to "Population projections on immigration and diversity for Canada and its regions, 2016 to 2041: Overview of projection assumptions and scenarios" in Demosim: Reports and Analytical Studies (Catalogue number 17-20-0001). Please note that demographic projections are not predictions. Please consider the range of results given by the different scenarios instead of trying to find a more probable scenario.

Geography

The geography includes the provinces and the territories, the census metropolitan areas (CMA) identified in the 2016 Census as well as the non CMA part of each province and territory. The Ottawa-Gatineau CMA was divided into its Ontario's part and its Quebec's part.