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Labour Force Information

Not for release before 7 A.M. E.D.T.Friday August 10, 2007

July 15 to 21, 2007

71-001-XWE


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Analysis — July 2007

Employment was little changed in July, leaving growth so far this year at 1.3%, similar to the growth rate in the first seven months of 2006. The unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage points to reach 6.0%, the lowest since 1974.

Alberta was the only province to show a significant employment increase in July, as an estimated 14,000 more people were working. This pushed Alberta’s employment rate back to its record high of 71.6%.

In July, employment gains in professional, scientific and technical services; manufacturing; transportation and warehousing; and utilities offset declines in educational services and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing.

Employment growth continued to be vigorous for students aged 15 to 24, driven primarily by those aged 15 to 19. The employment rate among 15 to 19 year-olds approached the high levels last observed in the early 1990s.

Canadian labour market remains strong

Employment growth so far this year is stronger in Canada than in the United States. Once concepts are adjusted for comparability to US definitions, Canada’s employment rate in July was 64.1%, 0.3 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year. The employment rate in the United States, however, declined during the same period by 0.4 percentage points to 63.0%. While Canada is reaching record high rates of employment, the US is still far from the peak of 64.7% attained in April 2000.

Following slower wage increases in the first quarter of 2007, July marks the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase above 3%. Canadian employees, on average, made 3.7% more per hour in July than they did a year earlier, running ahead of the most recent year-over-year increase of 2.2% in the Consumer Price Index.

The youth unemployment rate dropped to a low of 10.6% in July, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from a year ago. This is their lowest unemployment rate since September 1989. Unemployment rates for youths have declined in each province in the past year with the exception of Ontario, where the rate remained unchanged from one year ago. So far this year, employment growth for youths (+2.1%) is higher than for both adult women (+1.5%) and adult men (+0.7%).

Employment gains have largely been in professional, scientific and technical services; information, culture and recreation; and trade so far in 2007. This is in contrast to the first seven months of 2006, when gains were mainly in health care and social assistance; finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; and ‘other services’. However, manufacturing employment declined by 72,000 during the first seven months of this year, similar to the losses in this industry during the same period of 2006.

Goods sector growth in July

Employment in the goods-producing sector was up in July, mainly in manufacturing (+20,000), and utilities (+6,000). In the service sector, more workers were added in professional, scientific and technical services (+25,000) and transportation and warehousing (+17,000). Total gains, however, were offset by service sector declines in educational services (-57,000) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (-13,000).

The large drop in educational services in July was spread across several provinces and was concentrated among teachers and educational assistants in primary and secondary schools. July’s decline in education employment follows a two-year upward trend in this industry.

Declines in the public sector (-20,000) partially offset gains among private sector employees (+35,000) in July. In the past twelve months, employment growth has been strongest among the self-employed (+7.8%) followed by private sector employees (+1.3%), while public sector growth was weakest (+0.5%).

Alberta continues to flourish

Alberta’s estimated employment increase of 14,000 in July contributed to total gains of 61,000 (+ 3.2%) so far this year, similar to the growth rate over the same period last year. Gains in July were in full-time work, and mainly in health care and social assistance and trade. In the first seven months of 2007, trade; construction; health care and social assistance and information, culture and recreation garnered the bulk of the increases.

Although Ontario’s overall employment level was little changed in July, there were a few notable industry movements. Manufacturing employment was up an estimated 27,000 in July, the first significant increase in more than a year, with gains spread across several manufacturing industries. There were also gains in professional, scientific and technical services while employment declined in educational services.

Quebec’s employment picture in July was essentially unchanged, leaving total gains since last December at 69,000 (+1.8%). For the second consecutive month in July, the rate of unemployment (6.9%) was at its 33-year low while the employment rate (61.1%) remained at its record high.

In New Brunswick, despite an employment decline of 3,000 in July, growth has been steady since September of 2006, up 3.6% or 13,000. Gains since then have predominantly been in construction; health care and social assistance; and information, culture and recreation.

Employment in Nova Scotia declined by an estimated 3,000 in July, continuing the weakness observed since May of this year. This is a reversal of the strength shown earlier, as employment grew 2.5% from September 2006 to April 2007.

Labour market for students heats up in July

From May to August, the LFS collects labour market information about young people aged 15 to 24 who were attending school full time in March and who intend to return to school in the fall. The published estimates are not seasonally adjusted, therefore comparisons can only be made on a year-over-year basis.

The summer months continued to sizzle for students aged 15 to 24. Their July employment rates were similar to the high levels last attained in the early 1990s, especially for 15 to 16 year-olds (40.2%) and 17 to 19 year-olds (69.2%). Employment rates for students aged 20 to 24 (75.3%) remained on par with levels of last summer. Prince Edward Island (79.0%) and Manitoba (70.9%) had the highest proportion of students aged 15 to 24 working this July.

Note to readers

The Labour Force Survey estimates are based on a sample, and are therefore subject to sampling variability. Estimates for smaller geographic areas or industries will have more variability. For an explanation of sampling variability of estimates, and how to use standard errors to assess this variability, consult the Data Quality section in this publication.

The 2006 Labour Force Historical Review on CD-ROM (71F0004XCB, $209) is now available.

Chart 1 Employment and unemployment indicators, Canada, seasonally adjusted
Chart 2 Employment and unemployment indicators, Canada, seasonally adjusted
Chart 3 Index of employment by industry, Canada, seasonally adjusted, January, 2004=100
Chart 4 Index of employment by industry, Canada, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100
Chart 5 Index of employment by industry, Canada, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100
Chart 6 Index of employment by province, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100
Chart 7 Index of employment by province, seasonally adjusted, January 2004 = 100