Do producer prices predict consumer prices?

Acknowledgements

This work would not have been possible without the contributions of dedicated staff from Statistics Canada: Lydia Couture, Ning Huang and Devin MacKay.

Introduction

There has been a persistent curiosity about the predictability of consumer price inflation by looking at the pass-through effect of prices from earlier stages of production.^Note The theory is that the prices of consumer items, particularly goods, respond to cost pressures from the inputs to production. For example, iron ore is an input to the steel industry, which in turn fabricates products used by automotive manufacturers. The finished cars pass on to dealerships, and are sold to consumers. All else equal, a change in price in an important input gets “passed through” the value chain to the consumer. In the actual economy, however, not all else is equal. Price formation in a market economy does not occur on a “cost plus profit margin” model, but along the price that the market bears. Consumers can show resistance to price increases by purchasing domestically produced or imported substitutes, or by simply doing without. Producers similarly can substitute materials or otherwise reduce use of specific inputs. Additionally, and returning to the example, following the higher cost of iron ore, competitive market forces may adjust margins related to transportation, wholesale and retail in such a way as to absorb the price increase and show little movement, if any, in final consumer prices.

This paper examines in particular a limited portion of the value chain, namely the predictive power of producer prices of goods as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) on consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Specifically, the question to what extent producer prices predict consumer prices, is of heightened current interest. The study focuses on price series excluding the energy component.^Note

Presently, there is a surge in popularity in predicting the direction of future consumer price inflation. Inflation has been low and predictable for 30 years in Canada and shows the success of the Bank of Canada’s policy of inflation targeting. First introduced in 1991, the Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 percent midpoint of an inflation-control target range 1 to 3 percent. Internationally, the Central Banks of the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the EU and the USA have pursued similar policy goals. Inflation has been around the 2% mark for our key trading partners for a long time now. Several events, however, have led to questions by prominent economists as to whether Central Banks will continue to be able to pursue inflation targeting in the same way as they have the last 30 years.^Note First, monetary policy has been expansionary for the better part of 20 years and particularly so since the financial crisis that started in 2008. Both centrally administered, as well as mortgage, interest rates have been kept low and thereby boosted credit and money supply, where a particularly strong acceleration of monetary expansion during the pandemic led to an increase in total credit to the economy at more than twice the rate of GDP. Second, the pandemic led to expansionary fiscal policy of unprecedented fiscal deficits.

Data table for Chart 1



Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 Money Supply (M2+, billions $CAD) and 5-year mortgage rate (appearing as column headers).

	Money Supply (M2+, billions $CAD)	5-year mortgage rate
2000
January	673	8.34
February	674	8.43
March	679	8.24
April	687	8.23
May	686	8.50
June	692	8.34
July	694	8.18
August	695	8.08
September	697	8.08
October	699	8.08
November	702	8.04
December	712	7.81
2001
January	709	7.58
February	712	7.52
March	718	7.19
April	724	7.22
May	728	7.38
June	731	7.47
July	734	7.46
August	736	7.39
September	746	7.03
October	752	6.74
November	763	6.51
December	775	6.64
2002
January	774	6.62
February	774	6.59
March	776	6.80
April	779	7.00
May	781	7.00
June	787	6.98
July	790	6.90
August	794	6.61
September	798	6.49
October	802	6.50
November	807	6.47
December	813	6.39
2003
January	810	6.26
February	809	6.29
March	812	6.33
April	816	6.44
May	820	6.10
June	828	5.62
July	833	5.71
August	836	5.87
September	836	5.97
October	837	5.83
November	843	6.02
December	851	6.00
2004
January	849	5.78
February	849	5.51
March	849	5.31
April	858	5.56
May	865	5.82
June	873	6.06
July	876	6.10
August	875	5.97
September	875	5.94
October	878	5.95
November	880	5.87
December	893	5.69
2005
January	892	5.60
February	892	5.59
March	892	5.60
April	902	5.67
May	907	5.55
June	915	5.31
July	915	5.26
August	913	5.32
September	917	5.30
October	923	5.39
November	927	5.56
December	940	5.60
2006
January	935	5.65
February	937	5.75
March	940	5.78
April	952	5.88
May	955	6.05
June	966	6.12
July	974	6.26
August	977	6.24
September	986	6.13
October	993	6.01
November	1003	5.99
December	1018	5.89
2007
January	1013	5.91
February	1014	6.00
March	1019	5.91
April	1031	5.92
May	1035	6.01
June	1048	6.51
July	1058	6.60
August	1062	6.62
September	1069	6.61
October	1067	6.69
November	1076	6.73
December	1096	6.75
2008
January	1098	6.81
February	1104	6.72
March	1114	6.60
April	1130	6.40
May	1141	6.21
June	1155	6.20
July	1162	6.37
August	1169	6.25
September	1178	6.16
October	1192	6.46
November	1213	6.51
December	1241	6.17
2009
January	1247	5.78
February	1253	5.28
March	1264	5.14
April	1281	4.79
May	1289	4.62
June	1297	4.90
July	1306	5.14
August	1310	5.13
September	1312	4.97
October	1316	5.00
November	1321	5.06
December	1330	4.83
2010
January	1319	4.80
February	1319	4.73
March	1317	4.71
April	1326	5.15
May	1337	5.30
June	1349	5.18
July	1354	5.02
August	1354	4.82
September	1360	4.60
October	1365	4.52
November	1365	4.45
December	1379	4.50
2011
January	1371	4.55
February	1369	4.68
March	1372	4.70
April	1382	4.87
May	1387	4.83
June	1401	4.60
July	1405	4.57
August	1409	4.52
September	1426	4.42
October	1438	4.35
November	1445	4.38
December	1461	4.36
2012
January	1457	4.31
February	1451	4.23
March	1450	4.21
April	1463	4.36
May	1474	4.35
June	1493	4.25
July	1501	4.23
August	1503	4.23
September	1503	4.20
October	1507	4.17
November	1517	4.15
December	1532	4.15
2013
January	1526	4.14
February	1531	4.11
March	1539	4.02
April	1547	4.02
May	1549	4.02
June	1561	4.00
July	1564	4.08
August	1572	4.14
September	1577	4.33
October	1583	4.40
November	1595	4.39
December	1614	4.39
2014
January	1611	4.38
February	1605	4.32
March	1606	4.16
April	1613	4.02
May	1621	4.02
June	1630	4.00
July	1634	4.01
August	1643	4.01
September	1651	4.02
October	1661	4.00
November	1666	4.00
December	1683	3.98
2015
January	1675	3.96
February	1676	3.91
March	1677	3.84
April	1688	3.76
May	1692	3.74
June	1702	3.72
July	1718	3.71
August	1728	3.71
September	1740	3.71
October	1744	3.72
November	1756	3.72
December	1772	3.75
2016
January	1772	3.76
February	1775	3.75
March	1776	3.73
April	1792	3.70
May	1802	3.67
June	1818	3.66
July	1840	3.67
August	1848	3.68
September	1864	3.67
October	1878	3.68
November	1893	3.70
December	1911	3.74
2017
January	1917	3.73
February	1905	3.75
March	1912	3.66
April	1932	3.62
May	1947	3.59
June	1956	3.60
July	1957	3.72
August	1955	3.82
September	1966	3.89
October	1975	3.98
November	1986	4.04
December	2013	4.07
2018
January	2002	4.14
February	1996	4.26
March	2001	4.27
April	2012	4.27
May	2016	4.35
June	2032	4.32
July	2037	4.42
August	2047	4.43
September	2061	4.43
October	2071	4.48
November	2089	4.38
December	2120	4.59
2019
January	2114	4.59
February	2112	4.52
March	2124	4.44
April	2147	4.33
May	2161	4.30
June	2174	4.23
July	2185	4.14
August	2201	4.08
September	2218	4.07
October	2233	4.09
November	2248	4.09
December	2276	4.08
2020
January	2267	4.08
February	2273	4.08
March	2316	3.90
April	2396	3.95
May	2452	3.86
June	2502	3.77
July	2532	3.64
August	2566	3.57
September	2592	3.51
October	2618	3.45
November	2639	3.42
December	2655	3.34
2021
January	2655	3.30
February	2674	3.25
March	2680	3.26
April	2716	3.25
May	2747	3.25
June	2768	3.26
July	2792	3.20
August	2812	3.20
September	2818	3.22
October	2823	3.29
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 10-10-0112-01  Currency outside banks and chartered bank deposits, month-end, Bank of Canada; Statistics Canada. Table 34-10-0145-01  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, conventional mortgage lending rate, 5-year term

Data table for Chart 2



Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2 Budgetary balance - General governments (Table 36-10-0477-01), calculated using billions $CAD units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Budgetary balance - General governments (Table 36-10-0477-01)
	billions $CAD
2000
Q1	23.117
Q2	28.577
Q3	32.692
Q4	33.367
2001
Q1	31.650
Q2	30.097
Q3	20.786
Q4	11.135
2002
Q1	5.277
Q2	-0.383
Q3	0.197
Q4	4.202
2003
Q1	7.000
Q2	3.706
Q3	5.513
Q4	6.262
2004
Q1	8.271
Q2	12.841
Q3	17.196
Q4	19.916
2005
Q1	25.579
Q2	28.825
Q3	30.654
Q4	35.015
2006
Q1	36.369
Q2	38.887
Q3	40.137
Q4	41.616
2007
Q1	44.755
Q2	48.405
Q3	48.490
Q4	45.897
2008
Q1	44.085
Q2	36.618
Q3	31.358
Q4	18.025
2009
Q1	4.183
Q2	-14.348
Q3	-31.653
Q4	-38.163
2010
Q1	-43.522
Q2	-40.064
Q3	-44.271
Q4	-49.755
2011
Q1	-50.328
Q2	-48.430
Q3	-43.447
Q4	-37.676
2012
Q1	-32.709
Q2	-30.802
Q3	-28.680
Q4	-27.902
2013
Q1	-27.724
Q2	-25.261
Q3	-20.615
Q4	-16.052
2014
Q1	-4.545
Q2	0.321
Q3	3.858
Q4	6.738
2015
Q1	3.312
Q2	5.918
Q3	3.153
Q4	6.187
2016
Q1	8.669
Q2	6.650
Q3	5.766
Q4	0.180
2017
Q1	-0.947
Q2	4.747
Q3	7.730
Q4	10.641
2018
Q1	15.408
Q2	14.903
Q3	19.536
Q4	22.413
2019
Q1	22.042
Q2	18.127
Q3	11.272
Q4	6.133
2020
Q1	-15.097
Q2	-128.015
Q3	-192.914
Q4	-236.446
2022
Q1	-263.033
Q2	-186.767
Q3	-150.216
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 36-10-0477-01  Revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance - General governments, author's calculations.

Data table for Chart 3



Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3 Total Business and Household Credit, calculated using percent of GDP units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Total Business and Household Credit
	percent of GDP
2000
Q1	135.0023
Q2	134.3238
Q3	132.8161
Q4	131.8913
2001
Q1	130.5489
Q2	130.6636
Q3	132.5086
Q4	133.8497
2002
Q1	135.0705
Q2	135.5512
Q3	135.4164
Q4	134.4762
2003
Q1	133.1385
Q2	133.1815
Q3	133.7217
Q4	134.3506
2004
Q1	135.1891
Q2	136.5107
Q3	136.6481
Q4	137.3872
2005
Q1	137.3436
Q2	138.4896
Q3	139.4887
Q4	139.9522
2006
Q1	140.0554
Q2	140.9161
Q3	141.9663
Q4	143.2532
2007
Q1	144.5601
Q2	146.7193
Q3	148.4023
Q4	149.7992
2008
Q1	150.0668
Q2	151.2354
Q3	150.9339
Q4	152.5327
2009
Q1	154.3223
Q2	158.9137
Q3	164.0669
Q4	167.1036
2010
Q1	165.8772
Q2	165.6404
Q3	165.4327
Q4	165.1375
2011
Q1	164.4886
Q2	164.5465
Q3	164.2206
Q4	163.4382
2012
Q1	163.6728
Q2	164.7774
Q3	166.5523
Q4	168.3374
2013
Q1	169.0359
Q2	169.9953
Q3	170.2977
Q4	170.5247
2014
Q1	169.8959
Q2	170.2407
Q3	171.4389
Q4	173.3041
2015
Q1	175.8038
Q2	178.6189
Q3	182.1213
Q4	184.7791
2016
Q1	185.7421
Q2	187.9824
Q3	190.4013
Q4	191.3115
2017
Q1	192.5576
Q2	193.1635
Q3	193.3649
Q4	193.3507
2018
Q1	193.4216
Q2	193.7206
Q3	193.4941
Q4	194.6332
2019
Q1	194.7840
Q2	195.4992
Q3	196.5624
Q4	196.2365
2020
Q1	198.6570
Q2	206.8723
Q3	209.5252
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 10-10-0118-01  Credit measures, Bank of Canada; Statistics Canada. Table 36-10-0104-01  Gross domestic product, expenditure-based, Canada, quarterly; author's calculations.

The macroeconomic outcomes of current economic events on consumer price inflation are unknown, but have led to a renewed interest in identifying advance signals of consumer price inflation. One traditional approach, already alluded to earlier, is to start with the observation that producer prices at earlier stages of production can be viewed as the price of inputs, which are in turn used in the production of final goods. In this uncomplicated view, the IPPI for first stage intermediate goods, second stage intermediate goods and final goods correspond to different input goods linked by their respective place in the different stages of the value-added chain, before goods eventually arrive at retail outlets, where prices get measured by the CPI. In short, changes in prices along the chain of production should link changes in the IPPI to changes in the CPI. This is the often-mentioned pass-through effect.

Statistics Canada has previously examined possible pass-through effects in 1997 and in 2009.^Note The earlier study used VAR modelling and found no useable predictive power of the IPPI for the CPI, including for the restrictive definition of the IPPI excluding energy and the Goods-only CPI. The later study found statistical links in some time periods, but identified no solid predictive relation that could be used going forward. Numerous international studies have also failed to identify consistent pass-through effects.^Note Results vary between significant and insignificant and even the direction of causation of producer prices to consumer prices has been found to be reversed. With the exception of energy (gasoline) and some food products, the conclusion from the literature is that economists cannot use, however defined, the IPPI to predict movements in the CPI in a way that is valuable to policy makers.

Data and methods

The article studies predictive relations between producer and consumer prices separately for three levels of aggregations: top-level, mid-level and detailed commodities, based on Statistics Canada’s IPPI and CPI programs, from January 2000 to October 2021. The top level of aggregation examines the IPPI excluding energy and the CPI excluding energy using inflation cycle analysis as well as Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models or Vector Error Correction Models (VECM).^Note The mid-level aggregates studied are groupings that are available for both the IPPI and the CPI: food, passenger vehicles, householdfurniture.^Note The primary analysis tool are graphical descriptions and Pearson appliances, household cleaning products, and correlations. Finally, what makes the current study novel is its investigation of the predictive power of producer prices on consumer prices at the lowest level of aggregation, such as beef and cheese. Methods used are graphical analysis and VAR or VCEM models.

Beyond the 2000-2021 time frame, the study starts with an overview and assessment of the predictive link from the last 40 years.

Top-level aggregate movements in producer and consumer prices

Data table for Chart 4



Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4 CPI excl. energy and Total Industrial product price index (IPPI), excluding energy and petroleum products, calculated using year-over-year percent change units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI excl. energy	Total Industrial product price index (IPPI), excluding energy and petroleum products
	year-over-year percent change
1982
January	10.3	6.5
February	10.4	6.5
March	10.1	6.7
April	10.0	6.6
May	10.5	6.6
June	10.4	6.1
July	10.1	5.7
August	9.9	5.0
September	9.2	5.0
October	9.1	4.1
November	9.1	4.3
December	8.6	3.9
1983
January	7.8	3.3
February	7.4	3.4
March	7.1	3.0
April	6.5	3.0
May	6.1	3.0
June	5.1	2.8
July	4.9	3.2
August	4.8	3.4
September	4.8	3.2
October	5.0	3.8
November	4.2	3.8
December	4.2	4.4
1984
January	5.0	4.1
February	4.7	4.1
March	4.7	5.1
April	4.9	5.1
May	4.2	4.6
June	4.5	4.6
July	4.5	5.0
August	4.1	4.6
September	4.1	4.6
October	3.2	4.2
November	3.7	4.2
December	3.6	3.6
1985
January	3.4	3.4
February	3.5	3.2
March	3.3	3.2
April	3.5	2.4
May	3.5	2.2
June	3.8	2.2
July	3.6	1.5
August	3.9	1.5
September	3.8	1.8
October	3.9	2.0
November	3.8	2.2
December	4.4	2.6
1986
January	4.4	3.3
February	4.4	3.1
March	4.5	2.5
April	4.8	3.3
May	5.3	3.1
June	4.8	3.2
July	5.4	3.4
August	5.4	4.3
September	5.7	4.5
October	5.8	4.9
November	6.0	4.7
December	5.8	4.1
1987
January	5.6	3.5
February	5.3	2.8
March	5.1	2.5
April	4.8	2.5
May	4.7	3.5
June	4.7	3.5
July	4.7	3.8
August	4.2	3.5
September	4.0	3.3
October	4.0	3.1
November	4.0	3.6
December	3.7	4.3
1988
January	3.7	5.0
February	4.1	5.3
March	4.4	5.7
April	4.2	5.5
May	4.2	4.9
June	4.1	5.1
July	4.0	5.2
August	4.3	5.2
September	4.6	5.0
October	4.6	4.8
November	4.7	5.1
December	4.7	4.6
1989
January	5.0	3.9
February	5.0	4.2
March	4.9	4.2
April	4.9	3.6
May	5.2	3.1
June	5.4	2.6
July	5.4	1.8
August	5.2	1.3
September	5.1	1.0
October	5.2	0.3
November	5.0	-0.6
December	4.9	-1.1
1990
January	5.2	-1.6
February	5.1	-0.8
March	5.0	-1.3
April	4.7	-1.3
May	4.1	-0.3
June	4.2	-0.6
July	4.1	-0.8
August	4.1	-0.6
September	4.2	0.3
October	4.0	0.6
November	4.0	0.8
December	4.2	0.8
1991
January	6.2	1.1
February	5.9	0.2
March	6.1	0.0
April	6.3	0.0
May	6.2	-0.9
June	6.2	-0.8
July	5.8	-0.6
August	5.8	-1.3
September	5.3	-2.0
October	4.9	-2.0
November	4.7	-2.4
December	4.5	-1.7
1992
January	2.1	-2.2
February	1.9	-0.9
March	1.7	-0.2
April	1.7	-0.5
May	1.4	0.3
June	1.1	0.5
July	1.3	0.6
August	1.2	1.6
September	1.3	2.4
October	1.6	3.0
November	1.8	3.9
December	1.9	4.2
1993
January	2.0	5.2
February	2.3	4.3
March	1.9	4.1
April	1.8	4.5
May	1.9	3.3
June	1.8	3.2
July	1.6	3.5
August	1.6	4.4
September	2.0	3.8
October	2.0	3.6
November	2.0	3.7
December	2.0	4.2
1994
January	1.6	3.8
February	0.3	4.6
March	0.1	4.9
April	0.1	5.3
May	-0.1	6.3
June	0.0	7.4
July	0.0	7.5
August	0.0	7.1
September	0.0	7.1
October	-0.2	7.2
November	-0.2	7.9
December	0.1	8.1
1995
January	0.6	10.2
February	1.7	9.3
March	2.2	9.4
April	2.6	8.5
May	2.7	7.8
June	2.6	7.7
July	2.8	7.8
August	2.7	7.1
September	2.5	7.2
October	2.5	6.5
November	2.3	5.3
December	1.8	4.2
1996
January	1.6	1.7
February	1.4	1.2
March	1.5	-0.4
April	1.2	-0.3
May	1.4	1.1
June	1.4	-0.3
July	1.2	-0.8
August	1.4	-0.1
September	1.4	-0.4
October	1.5	-1.1
November	1.8	-1.4
December	1.9	-1.2
1997
January	1.8	-1.3
February	1.8	-0.8
March	1.8	0.7
April	1.8	2.0
May	1.8	0.8
June	1.9	1.1
July	1.6	0.8
August	1.6	0.5
September	1.3	0.4
October	1.4	1.2
November	0.8	2.0
December	0.8	1.6
1998
January	1.4	2.0
February	1.5	1.9
March	1.4	0.4
April	1.2	0.4
May	1.3	0.4
June	1.3	1.1
July	1.4	1.7
August	1.4	1.8
September	1.5	1.4
October	1.4	2.2
November	1.6	1.7
December	1.5	1.2
1999
January	1.0	1.0
February	1.0	0.5
March	1.1	2.2
April	1.4	0.9
May	1.5	1.0
June	1.5	0.8
July	1.5	1.6
August	1.5	0.8
September	1.7	1.6
October	1.5	0.6
November	1.4	0.6
December	1.5	1.7
2000
January	1.2	1.6
February	1.3	2.3
March	1.3	2.1
April	1.2	3.1
May	1.3	3.1
June	1.5	2.6
July	1.6	1.4
August	1.7	1.5
September	1.5	1.4
October	1.6	2.3
November	1.8	3.1
December	2.2	1.9
2001
January	2.1	1.9
February	2.4	2.2
March	2.4	2.4
April	2.6	2.0
May	2.6	2.3
June	2.5	1.6
July	2.7	1.4
August	2.5	1.3
September	2.5	1.6
October	2.4	-0.1
November	2.1	-0.2
December	2.0	-0.4
2002
January	2.3	0.9
February	2.3	0.6
March	2.4	0.0
April	2.5	-0.2
May	2.4	-1.1
June	2.6	-0.4
July	2.7	0.0
August	2.9	0.6
September	2.8	0.9
October	3.0	2.0
November	3.6	1.2
December	3.6	1.6
2003
January	3.6	0.5
February	3.4	0.2
March	3.2	-0.4
April	2.8	-1.1
May	2.7	-2.1
June	2.2	-2.9
July	1.8	-1.9
August	1.7	-2.3
September	1.9	-2.6
October	1.9	-3.7
November	1.8	-3.9
December	1.7	-3.5
2004
January	1.5	-3.1
February	1.1	-1.2
March	1.2	-0.1
April	1.2	1.9
May	1.4	4.8
June	1.6	5.5
July	1.6	4.1
August	1.4	4.3
September	1.5	3.2
October	1.5	2.9
November	1.7	1.7
December	1.6	2.6
2005
January	1.5	2.7
February	1.6	1.6
March	1.7	0.7
April	1.6	-0.2
May	1.5	-1.3
June	1.5	-1.6
July	1.3	-2.2
August	1.7	-2.7
September	1.6	-2.2
October	1.5	-0.4
November	1.4	1.6
December	1.3	0.6
2006
January	1.7	0.6
February	1.6	-0.4
March	1.6	0.2
April	1.6	0.4
May	1.8	0.5
June	1.6	0.6
July	1.5	2.9
August	1.5	2.6
September	1.8	2.9
October	2.0	2.9
November	1.8	2.6
December	1.7	3.6
2007
January	1.8	3.8
February	2.3	4.3
March	2.1	4.5
April	2.3	4.0
May	2.1	3.0
June	2.2	2.6
July	2.5	0.4
August	2.3	0.1
September	2.1	-1.0
October	1.9	-2.8
November	1.7	-3.1
December	1.7	-3.0
2008
January	1.3	-2.7
February	1.0	-3.2
March	1.0	-2.8
April	1.1	-1.9
May	1.3	-1.3
June	1.6	0.7
July	1.6	2.3
August	1.8	4.4
September	1.9	5.0
October	1.8	8.4
November	2.6	8.0
December	2.6	6.2
2009
January	2.3	5.0
February	2.5	5.2
March	2.5	4.6
April	2.4	3.1
May	2.3	1.3
June	2.1	-0.2
July	1.8	-1.1
August	1.4	-2.3
September	1.3	-2.2
October	1.4	-4.7
November	1.0	-3.6
December	0.8	-2.7
2010
January	1.3	-2.4
February	1.3	-2.5
March	1.0	-3.2
April	1.1	-2.2
May	1.0	0.5
June	0.9	0.2
July	1.3	0.4
August	1.4	1.0
September	1.5	1.8
October	1.9	2.9
November	1.5	2.8
December	1.7	3.0
2011
January	1.7	3.2
February	1.4	3.8
March	2.4	4.8
April	2.0	4.8
May	2.4	3.5
June	1.9	4.6
July	1.7	4.4
August	2.0	5.1
September	2.3	4.9
October	2.1	3.4
November	2.2	3.1
December	1.8	2.0
2012
January	2.1	1.8
February	2.2	1.7
March	1.6	1.0
April	2.1	0.6
May	1.7	0.8
June	1.7	0.8
July	1.5	0.3
August	1.4	-1.3
September	0.9	-1.1
October	1.1	-0.1
November	0.9	0.0
December	1.0	0.6
2013
January	0.7	0.3
February	1.2	0.3
March	1.1	0.5
April	0.7	0.0
May	0.7	-0.1
June	0.9	-0.3
July	1.0	0.0
August	1.0	0.8
September	1.0	-0.1
October	0.9	-0.2
November	0.8	-0.2
December	1.0	0.1
2014
January	1.2	1.5
February	1.1	1.9
March	1.3	2.5
April	1.4	2.7
May	1.7	2.5
June	1.9	2.5
July	1.8	3.2
August	2.0	3.0
September	2.1	3.4
October	2.2	3.6
November	2.2	3.5
December	2.2	3.4
2015
January	2.3	3.6
February	2.2	3.5
March	2.3	2.8
April	2.2	2.6
May	2.2	3.0
June	2.1	3.2
July	2.2	3.8
August	2.0	4.1
September	2.1	4.2
October	2.1	3.6
November	2.0	3.2
December	2.0	3.5
2016
January	2.2	3.5
February	2.0	1.9
March	2.1	0.7
April	2.1	0.2
May	1.9	0.9
June	2.0	0.9
July	1.9	0.8
August	1.8	0.1
September	1.6	0.3
October	1.4	1.0
November	1.3	2.1
December	1.3	1.2
2017
January	1.4	0.0
February	1.3	0.9
March	1.0	3.3
April	1.0	4.6
May	1.1	4.7
June	1.2	3.6
July	1.3	0.9
August	1.3	1.3
September	1.3	-0.1
October	1.4	0.7
November	1.7	0.6
December	1.7	1.0
2018
January	1.7	0.8
February	2.0	1.0
March	1.9	0.8
April	1.9	0.5
May	1.6	0.6
June	1.6	2.1
July	2.1	3.5
August	2.2	3.0
September	1.8	4.1
October	2.0	3.1
November	1.9	2.6
December	2.5	3.0
2019
January	2.1	2.7
February	2.1	1.9
March	2.2	1.6
April	2.2	1.9
May	2.7	1.0
June	2.6	-0.4
July	2.5	-0.7
August	2.4	0.5
September	2.4	0.3
October	2.3	0.1
November	2.3	-0.1
December	2.0	-0.2
2020
January	2.0	0.2
February	2.0	1.0
March	1.7	1.6
April	1.6	1.3
May	1.0	2.0
June	1.3	1.8
July	0.8	2.9
August	0.7	3.4
September	1.0	4.8
October	1.1	4.9
November	1.4	4.2
December	1.1	5.0
2021
January	1.3	6.4
February	1.0	8.2
March	1.1	8.6
April	1.6	11.0
May	2.2	13.6
June	2.0	14.6
July	2.6	13.6
August	3.0	11.9
September	3.3	11.8
October	3.3	12.5
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0265-01  Industrial product price index, by major product group, monthly.

The sustained fall in consumer price inflation during the early 1990s coincided with the policy regime change towards inflation targets. Between 1992 and 2020, consumer price inflation was within a narrow range of 0.8–3.6%. The period between 2004 and 2020 in particular have showed remarkably stable inflation, with the CPI anchored to a tight band between 0.7-2.8%. The band had been maintained by the Bank of Canada’s management of inflationary expectations, whereby employers, labour and consumers resisted wage and price increases that extended above the target range. The same period, however, had been marked by pronounced fluctuations in producer prices.

Table 1 shows turning points in the IPPI (rather than by business cycles) where the peak to trough, or trough to peak, movement was greater than 5 percentage points (pp), together with the corresponding CPI response. Based on this method, the CPI responds to the IPPI, with a lag, in 10 of the 12 occurrences. These data demonstrate a weak predictive power of the IPPI, the CPI moving within its narrow target band. For the most part, the lags are quite short. For illustration, the IPPI dropped by 13.1 pp in the course of the financial crisis 2008/09 and reached its low in October 2009. The CPI reached its trough 2 months later, in December 2009, with a modest fall of 1.6 pp from its prior peak in November 2008. It bears noting that in some cycles, the CPI moves independently from the IPPI, particularly in the cycle that ended in 2015.



The results from VAR models (Granger causality) show that movements in the IPPI unidirectionally caused movements in the top-line CPI aggregates between 2000 and August 2021.^Note The predictive relation held for the CPI excluding energy and the CPI goods excluding energy aggregate.^Note Over the most recent ten-year period, the relation was however unusable for confident prediction because Granger causality was either absent or flowed bidirectionally.^Note Results from the Granger tests are in Appendix “A”.

The results from the VAR models and the analysis of inflation cycles point in the same direction. There is a weak and variable predictive link, if any, between movements in the IPPI and later movements in the CPI.

Mid-level aggregates

At mid-level aggregates the extent of overlap of commodities sold and consumed between the IPPI and CPI increases conceptually. For example, there is a higher level of conceptual overlap within the coverage of automobiles in the CPI and IPPI, than there is within the total IPPI and CPI. From the higher conceptual overlap, however, does not necessarily follow that producer prices and consumer prices will show stronger correlations. One such instance can occur where the domestically produced items are a small subset of consumer purchases. For example, relatively few of the clothing items Canadians purchase are produced in Canada. The ones that are produced and purchased domestically might show quite different price movement compared to the imported items. Conversely, in markets where exports predominate, the IPPI reflects to a high extent prices received in foreign markets rather than the Canadian marketplace, such as automobiles. Finally, the IPPI and CPI in certain instances have quite different coverage, for example, the IPPI for furniture includes sales to all clients, not just consumers. Office furniture prices may move quite differently compared to consumer furniture.^Note In short, the predictive power of the IPPI may be no stronger at the mid-aggregate level compared to the headline number, indeed, in some instances, it may be lower.

This study presents five mid-level aggregates available for the IPPI and CPI: food, passenger vehicles, furniture, household appliances and household cleaning products. The charts show the year-over-year price changes for the IPPI (in red) and the CPI (in blue). The table reports the Pearson correlation coefficient for various lag structures.

Data table for Chart 5



Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 CPI and IPPI, calculated using percent (12month change) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	percent (12month change)
2001
January	3.9	2.2
February	5.4	3.1
March	5.9	2.9
April	6.1	3.2
May	6.1	2.1
June	5.3	2.3
July	5.0	3.7
August	4.3	3.4
September	4.4	3.7
October	4.4	3.3
November	3.8	2.6
December	3.6	2.3
2002
January	4.9	2.3
February	4.6	2.1
March	3.2	1.8
April	3.3	0.3
May	1.6	0.3
June	1.9	0.1
July	1.5	0.4
August	1.8	0.4
September	1.5	1.0
October	1.1	2.2
November	2.8	2.7
December	2.1	3.7
2003
January	1.8	3.3
February	0.8	3.0
March	1.3	2.9
April	0.8	3.2
May	1.8	3.8
June	1.7	3.1
July	1.7	0.4
August	1.3	-0.5
September	1.6	0.6
October	1.9	-0.1
November	1.1	0.7
December	1.5	0.0
2004
January	0.4	-0.8
February	0.4	0.3
March	0.4	0.9
April	0.0	2.6
May	0.7	3.2
June	1.8	3.1
July	1.7	4.7
August	2.6	4.3
September	2.8	0.8
October	3.8	0.1
November	3.8	-1.9
December	3.1	-1.8
2005
January	2.5	-1.2
February	2.5	-1.9
March	2.8	-2.5
April	4.4	-4.1
May	3.5	-4.3
June	2.4	-4.7
July	2.2	-5.0
August	2.3	-3.2
September	1.7	-1.4
October	1.5	-1.0
November	0.8	0.4
December	1.0	0.4
2006
January	2.9	0.3
February	2.9	-0.7
March	2.1	-0.5
April	0.7	-0.5
May	1.2	-1.0
June	1.4	0.7
July	2.1	1.9
August	2.3	0.4
September	3.2	1.5
October	3.1	1.4
November	3.3	2.3
December	2.3	2.5
2007
January	2.2	3.2
February	4.7	4.8
March	4.4	4.8
April	4.5	5.2
May	4.0	5.1
June	3.4	4.2
July	2.7	3.2
August	2.0	3.7
September	1.3	3.0
October	0.6	2.2
November	0.6	1.6
December	1.1	2.4
2008
January	1.1	2.7
February	-0.6	2.2
March	-0.3	2.2
April	0.9	2.7
May	1.9	3.8
June	3.0	5.2
July	4.3	5.9
August	5.2	6.7
September	6.7	5.8
October	7.3	6.0
November	9.0	5.7
December	9.0	4.3
2009
January	8.6	4.0
February	8.9	3.1
March	9.5	3.3
April	8.3	3.3
May	7.4	1.9
June	6.4	0.7
July	5.6	-0.6
August	4.4	-0.9
September	2.7	-0.5
October	2.1	0.0
November	1.3	0.4
December	1.3	0.4
2010
January	0.9	-0.7
February	0.6	-1.0
March	0.7	-1.9
April	0.4	-2.0
May	0.2	-1.4
June	0.1	-1.6
July	0.6	-0.9
August	1.2	-0.2
September	2.2	1.5
October	2.1	2.8
November	1.0	2.9
December	1.4	3.8
2011
January	1.9	4.5
February	2.0	6.2
March	3.7	7.1
April	3.7	7.5
May	4.2	6.8
June	4.8	7.3
July	5.1	7.1
August	5.0	7.3
September	4.8	5.9
October	4.9	4.6
November	5.7	3.6
December	5.0	2.9
2012
January	4.9	3.0
February	4.7	2.3
March	2.0	2.6
April	2.4	2.1
May	2.5	2.5
June	1.8	3.0
July	1.9	3.5
August	2.2	3.1
September	1.4	3.3
October	1.9	2.9
November	1.5	3.3
December	1.2	3.2
2013
January	0.6	2.7
February	1.8	2.3
March	1.7	1.3
April	1.7	1.1
May	1.3	2.1
June	1.3	1.9
July	0.5	1.8
August	0.7	0.7
September	1.1	0.2
October	0.7	-0.1
November	1.1	-0.2
December	0.8	-0.2
2014
January	1.0	0.1
February	1.0	1.1
March	1.7	3.6
April	1.7	5.0
May	2.5	3.8
June	3.2	3.6
July	3.2	3.7
August	2.3	3.8
September	3.0	4.3
October	3.1	4.9
November	3.3	5.2
December	4.2	6.0
2015
January	5.4	6.4
February	4.3	5.3
March	4.2	2.8
April	4.0	1.2
May	4.1	2.3
June	3.6	2.6
July	3.5	2.7
August	4.0	3.7
September	3.9	3.4
October	4.6	3.4
November	3.7	2.4
December	4.1	1.3
2016
January	4.6	1.9
February	4.4	2.2
March	4.0	1.2
April	3.3	1.1
May	1.4	0.5
June	0.8	1.3
July	1.1	0.1
August	0.4	-1.6
September	-0.9	-1.7
October	-2.1	-1.3
November	-2.0	-0.3
December	-2.8	-0.5
2017
January	-4.0	-0.8
February	-4.1	-0.7
March	-3.6	0.7
April	-2.6	0.8
May	-1.2	1.9
June	-0.3	1.5
July	-0.1	1.8
August	0.3	2.3
September	0.9	1.0
October	0.6	0.7
November	0.9	1.4
December	1.5	1.7
2018
January	1.6	1.2
February	1.4	0.4
March	0.5	0.2
April	0.7	0.3
May	-0.5	-0.4
June	0.1	-1.0
July	0.1	-0.9
August	0.3	-1.1
September	0.6	0.4
October	1.1	1.6
November	1.4	0.6
December	2.5	0.9
2019
January	2.5	1.4
February	3.4	0.7
March	4.0	1.1
April	3.0	2.8
May	4.0	2.7
June	3.9	2.2
July	4.2	1.2
August	3.9	3.6
September	4.1	2.0
October	4.1	1.3
November	3.9	2.1
December	3.2	3.2
2020
January	3.8	3.0
February	2.4	3.5
March	2.4	4.0
April	4.0	4.5
May	3.5	8.0
June	3.0	5.1
July	2.4	3.0
August	1.6	1.4
September	1.3	5.0
October	2.3	5.2
November	1.6	4.2
December	0.5	2.4
2021
January	0.1	3.2
February	1.3	6.0
March	1.3	6.3
April	0.1	7.1
May	0.9	6.0
June	0.7	9.5
July	1.0	11.4
August	2.6	13.3
September	4.2	11.4
October	3.9	9.1
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0267-01  Industrial product price index, by industry, monthly, NAICS 311

Data table for Chart 6



Data table for Chart 6
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 6 CPI and IPPI, calculated using percent (12 month change) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	percent (12 month change)
2001
January	-1.2	5.1
February	-1.2	5.9
March	-1.2	7.2
April	0.6	6.1
May	0.5	5.1
June	0.5	4.5
July	1.6	5.3
August	1.5	4.4
September	1.5	6.6
October	1.5	2.3
November	-3.0	2.0
December	-3.0	2.7
2002
January	-1.0	5.1
February	-1.0	3.4
March	-1.0	1.3
April	-0.8	0.6
May	-0.8	-0.6
June	-0.9	0.6
July	-0.8	-1.4
August	-0.7	0.6
September	-0.7	0.2
October	-0.7	1.4
November	2.0	-0.5
December	2.0	-0.5
2003
January	1.2	-3.5
February	1.2	-4.3
March	1.2	-6.0
April	0.1	-7.5
May	0.1	-10.0
June	-1.4	-12.1
July	-1.1	-7.9
August	-1.9	-9.6
September	-2.2	-12.4
October	-2.8	-15.5
November	-1.5	-16.6
December	-2.3	-15.0
2004
January	-0.8	-14.8
February	-2.7	-11.9
March	-2.3	-10.1
April	-1.5	-7.1
May	-1.2	-0.4
June	0.2	1.0
July	1.2	-5.1
August	-0.5	-5.3
September	-0.9	-5.7
October	-1.2	-5.6
November	0.9	-7.6
December	2.7	-6.5
2005
January	1.2	-5.1
February	2.6	-6.2
March	1.4	-7.8
April	0.2	-7.4
May	0.5	-8.3
June	0.1	-8.2
July	-1.7	-7.2
August	1.7	-7.8
September	2.3	-8.0
October	3.8	-5.5
November	2.7	-1.8
December	1.8	-5.2
2006
January	2.9	-6.1
February	3.2	-7.6
March	3.5	-5.4
April	3.4	-7.9
May	2.2	-11.6
June	1.6	-10.2
July	2.4	-8.1
August	0.8	-7.5
September	1.8	-5.7
October	1.3	-4.0
November	-2.0	-4.4
December	-1.9	-1.5
2007
January	-1.4	0.8
February	-1.0	1.1
March	-1.1	0.2
April	-1.2	-1.5
May	-0.3	-2.1
June	0.5	-4.8
July	-0.2	-7.2
August	-1.3	-5.9
September	-1.0	-8.5
October	-2.5	-13.6
November	-3.8	-14.0
December	-4.0	-12.3
2008
January	-4.9	-13.3
February	-6.7	-13.7
March	-7.1	-13.3
April	-6.6	-9.9
May	-8.3	-7.9
June	-8.4	-4.0
July	-8.9	-3.0
August	-7.4	0.1
September	-9.4	3.4
October	-9.0	20.4
November	-2.8	24.3
December	-3.6	21.6
2009
January	-8.2	19.9
February	-6.5	23.4
March	-7.5	24.8
April	-8.3	19.7
May	-6.6	14.4
June	-5.2	10.5
July	-4.3	10.8
August	-4.7	3.6
September	-5.9	2.6
October	-4.1	-9.6
November	-6.0	-11.2
December	-3.3	-12.6
2010
January	3.1	-12.4
February	3.5	-13.3
March	3.9	-16.4
April	5.3	-14.8
May	5.1	-7.9
June	2.8	-6.1
July	1.7	-5.9
August	2.2	-3.1
September	5.0	-3.3
October	4.9	-2.1
November	3.9	-3.3
December	1.5	-3.2
2011
January	0.8	-2.5
February	-0.9	-3.7
March	0.2	-2.7
April	0.0	-2.5
May	0.7	-4.2
June	-3.1	-3.7
July	-1.0	-5.3
August	0.3	-3.6
September	1.8	-1.6
October	2.5	0.7
November	1.8	1.4
December	-0.2	1.3
2012
January	1.4	0.6
February	1.4	-0.1
March	2.2	0.7
April	3.4	1.7
May	1.7	2.5
June	3.9	3.0
July	2.3	3.9
August	2.0	0.5
September	0.2	-1.6
October	0.1	-2.4
November	-1.8	-2.0
December	-0.6	-2.3
2013
January	-0.8	-1.7
February	2.5	-0.1
March	0.8	0.8
April	-0.7	0.6
May	-0.5	-0.5
June	2.0	-1.0
July	2.0	0.1
August	0.6	1.9
September	1.4	2.4
October	1.7	2.0
November	0.4	1.9
December	1.4	4.2
2014
January	0.9	5.7
February	0.3	6.0
March	1.5	5.6
April	1.5	4.9
May	2.0	4.0
June	1.6	3.6
July	1.3	2.1
August	2.9	3.4
September	0.5	4.5
October	0.9	5.3
November	1.3	5.7
December	1.6	5.5
2015
January	1.2	7.5
February	-1.0	9.2
March	1.8	9.4
April	1.4	9.1
May	1.8	9.3
June	2.0	10.5
July	2.5	14.5
August	0.6	14.3
September	1.6	14.3
October	1.6	12.4
November	1.9	12.7
December	3.1	13.4
2016
January	4.0	12.5
February	5.0	7.8
March	3.2	4.1
April	4.6	3.1
May	4.3	4.2
June	5.6	2.8
July	5.4	0.9
August	5.2	-0.6
September	5.8	-0.8
October	4.4	0.7
November	3.0	0.7
December	2.6	-1.8
2017
January	3.8	-4.5
February	3.6	-3.3
March	2.1	1.0
April	0.9	3.3
May	0.2	2.9
June	-0.2	1.5
July	0.2	-2.5
August	0.7	-2.6
September	1.0	-5.1
October	1.9	-4.6
November	3.6	-5.4
December	3.7	-4.7
2018
January	1.4	-4.6
February	2.5	-4.0
March	1.7	-6.0
April	1.8	-5.5
May	0.8	-5.6
June	1.8	-4.1
July	2.0	-0.5
August	2.3	-0.3
September	0.6	2.2
October	1.7	0.9
November	0.8	0.6
December	0.3	0.4
2019
January	1.3	0.4
February	1.4	0.5
March	3.0	1.4
April	2.7	0.7
May	4.2	1.1
June	3.0	1.1
July	2.8	0.8
August	2.9	0.9
September	3.4	0.8
October	1.8	1.1
November	2.9	1.4
December	1.4	1.5
2020
January	2.3	1.4
February	2.2	1.0
March	1.0	1.2
April	1.9	1.4
May	2.0	1.1
June	2.8	0.9
July	3.2	1.0
August	2.2	0.8
September	2.7	0.6
October	2.9	0.2
November	2.0	0.3
December	2.5	0.4
2021
January	2.9	0.9
February	2.8	1.0
March	3.5	0.7
April	3.4	0.7
May	5.0	0.6
June	4.1	1.1
July	5.5	1.0
August	7.2	1.4
September	7.2	1.6
October	6.1	1.6
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0267-01  Industrial product price index, by industry, monthly, NAICS 33611.

Data table for Chart 7



Data table for Chart 7
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 7 CPI and IPPI, calculated using percent (12 month change) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	percent (12 month change)
2001
January	0.1	1.4
February	0.0	1.6
March	0.1	1.8
April	-1.6	1.6
May	-1.6	1.6
June	0.5	1.7
July	0.5	1.6
August	0.5	1.6
September	-1.0	1.6
October	-2.8	1.7
November	-2.9	1.7
December	-1.4	1.7
2002
January	-1.4	0.5
February	-0.8	0.1
March	-0.6	-0.1
April	1.1	-0.1
May	0.8	0.1
June	-0.4	0.0
July	-0.3	0.1
August	-0.3	0.1
September	-0.1	-0.1
October	1.2	-0.2
November	1.5	-0.2
December	1.0	-0.2
2003
January	1.0	0.3
February	-0.5	0.6
March	-0.8	0.6
April	-0.2	0.6
May	-0.1	0.3
June	-1.5	0.4
July	-1.6	0.5
August	-1.6	0.5
September	-1.7	0.7
October	-0.9	0.7
November	-1.0	0.6
December	-1.5	0.6
2004
January	-1.5	0.1
February	-1.5	0.0
March	-1.3	-0.1
April	-0.5	0.1
May	-0.6	0.2
June	-2.5	0.3
July	-2.6	0.2
August	-2.6	0.3
September	-1.8	0.4
October	-2.8	1.0
November	-2.8	1.3
December	-3.2	1.3
2005
January	-3.2	2.1
February	-3.0	2.4
March	-3.0	2.5
April	-3.8	2.3
May	-4.1	2.2
June	-1.6	1.5
July	-1.5	1.7
August	-1.5	1.5
September	-2.2	1.2
October	-2.7	0.6
November	-2.6	0.4
December	-2.2	0.3
2006
January	-2.2	0.1
February	-2.4	-0.1
March	-2.5	-0.4
April	-2.6	-1.3
May	-1.9	-1.4
June	-2.1	-0.8
July	-3.0	-0.9
August	-3.0	0.0
September	-3.4	0.3
October	-2.4	0.3
November	-2.3	1.0
December	-3.1	1.1
2007
January	-3.1	0.5
February	-2.6	0.1
March	-2.9	0.4
April	-2.5	1.3
May	-2.5	1.3
June	-2.4	1.2
July	-1.5	0.5
August	-1.5	-0.3
September	-1.1	-0.5
October	-1.9	-0.7
November	-2.0	-1.2
December	-1.3	-1.1
2008
January	-2.2	-1.0
February	-1.3	-0.7
March	-0.8	-0.7
April	-1.3	-0.6
May	-2.2	-0.5
June	-4.2	-0.4
July	-4.0	0.9
August	-4.0	1.3
September	-4.0	1.9
October	-4.7	2.8
November	-4.6	2.7
December	-4.1	3.0
2009
January	-3.3	3.2
February	-2.2	3.6
March	-2.1	3.5
April	-0.9	3.6
May	-0.2	3.2
June	2.2	3.2
July	2.0	2.2
August	2.0	2.1
September	0.9	1.6
October	1.4	0.8
November	1.5	0.9
December	-1.2	0.5
2010
January	-1.2	0.2
February	-1.9	-0.2
March	-2.3	-0.1
April	-2.6	-0.2
May	-3.1	0.0
June	-2.1	0.0
July	-2.1	0.2
August	-2.1	0.0
September	-2.4	-0.1
October	-1.0	0.2
November	-1.6	0.0
December	-1.2	0.0
2011
January	-0.9	0.0
February	-0.4	-0.3
March	-0.6	0.0
April	-3.1	0.0
May	-1.8	-1.5
June	-1.8	-1.5
July	-2.0	-1.2
August	-2.0	-1.1
September	-1.4	-1.1
October	-0.7	-1.3
November	-1.4	-1.3
December	2.2	-1.3
2012
January	2.1	-1.2
February	0.5	-0.9
March	0.7	-1.2
April	3.5	-1.2
May	3.1	0.6
June	1.6	1.6
July	1.6	1.1
August	1.6	1.0
September	1.7	1.1
October	-0.2	1.1
November	1.5	1.2
December	-2.3	1.2
2013
January	-2.6	1.1
February	-2.6	3.9
March	-1.3	3.3
April	-2.1	3.3
May	-4.3	3.4
June	-2.8	2.3
July	-2.8	2.3
August	-2.9	2.4
September	-3.1	2.1
October	-2.6	2.2
November	-4.0	2.3
December	-2.3	2.1
2014
January	-2.3	2.2
February	-0.7	-0.4
March	-1.9	0.2
April	-3.0	0.2
May	-1.3	1.0
June	-1.0	1.0
July	-0.8	0.3
August	-0.8	0.2
September	0.4	0.5
October	0.4	0.5
November	1.3	0.3
December	2.0	0.6
2015
January	2.0	0.6
February	1.4	1.4
March	2.0	1.5
April	4.2	1.4
May	4.1	0.4
June	3.8	2.1
July	3.8	3.0
August	4.7	3.1
September	5.3	3.0
October	7.2	2.9
November	4.8	2.9
December	3.5	2.8
2016
January	5.2	3.1
February	5.5	4.7
March	5.4	4.4
April	4.7	4.4
May	4.1	4.4
June	4.7	2.6
July	3.4	2.8
August	3.8	2.7
September	0.8	2.7
October	-0.7	2.7
November	0.8	2.8
December	0.7	2.6
2017
January	-0.9	2.2
February	-0.5	-0.2
March	0.4	-2.2
April	-1.2	-0.5
May	-2.1	-3.5
June	-3.3	-0.7
July	-2.0	-0.9
August	-3.0	-1.0
September	-0.8	-1.4
October	-0.9	2.0
November	-1.2	-0.5
December	-1.3	-0.8
2018
January	-1.3	1.2
February	-1.9	-0.4
March	-1.3	1.7
April	0.3	2.7
May	0.3	6.1
June	0.6	3.1
July	0.3	-1.9
August	0.1	-1.1
September	-0.3	-0.7
October	-0.6	-3.6
November	-0.2	-1.1
December	-2.2	-0.6
2019
January	-2.2	-2.7
February	0.1	-1.1
March	-0.7	-6.7
April	-1.6	-9.4
May	-0.5	-9.5
June	-0.3	-9.6
July	-0.1	-4.9
August	-0.9	-5.4
September	-0.1	-5.5
October	-1.1	-6.0
November	-1.3	-6.0
December	-0.1	-6.2
2020
January	-0.1	-5.5
February	-2.8	-4.2
March	-2.0	2.2
April	-0.6	1.3
May	-0.2	3.6
June	0.0	7.4
July	0.2	12.1
August	2.1	7.8
September	1.7	9.3
October	3.0	8.6
November	2.9	7.5
December	3.4	9.1
2021
January	3.4	6.9
February	6.1	7.5
March	5.6	6.3
April	5.4	7.9
May	4.2	3.5
June	5.2	3.3
July	5.0	3.1
August	5.3	2.8
September	5.5	4.2
October	5.5	8.9
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0267-01  Industrial product price index, by industry, monthly, NAICS 3352.

Data table for Chart 8



Data table for Chart 8
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 8 CPI and IPPI, calculated using percent (12 month change) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	percent (12 month change)
2001
January	0.2	1.5
February	-1.4	1.5
March	-1.4	1.6
April	1.9	1.6
May	1.8	1.5
June	-1.0	1.9
July	-1.4	1.9
August	-1.4	1.6
September	2.4	1.5
October	0.3	1.5
November	0.3	1.6
December	2.5	1.8
2002
January	2.5	1.3
February	0.8	1.2
March	0.9	0.9
April	1.2	0.8
May	0.8	0.8
June	2.6	0.4
July	3.1	0.3
August	3.1	0.5
September	-2.2	0.5
October	-0.1	1.1
November	-0.1	1.2
December	-1.2	0.9
2003
January	-1.2	0.9
February	1.3	0.9
March	1.2	0.9
April	-0.5	1.1
May	-0.5	0.9
June	-0.9	0.8
July	-0.8	1.7
August	-0.8	1.6
September	1.6	1.8
October	0.9	1.4
November	0.9	1.3
December	0.7	1.3
2004
January	0.7	1.7
February	-0.8	1.6
March	-0.8	2.0
April	0.0	1.8
May	0.0	2.4
June	-0.7	2.8
July	-1.5	2.0
August	-1.5	2.3
September	-0.4	2.1
October	-1.0	1.9
November	-1.0	2.7
December	0.3	2.8
2005
January	0.3	3.0
February	-0.5	3.1
March	-0.5	2.4
April	-3.0	2.4
May	-2.3	2.8
June	1.3	2.9
July	1.6	2.8
August	1.6	2.7
September	0.8	2.4
October	0.2	3.2
November	0.2	2.5
December	0.1	3.0
2006
January	0.1	3.3
February	0.4	3.3
March	0.4	3.5
April	1.2	3.9
May	0.8	3.1
June	-1.6	2.7
July	-2.6	3.2
August	-2.6	3.1
September	-4.5	3.5
October	-4.2	2.8
November	-4.2	2.8
December	-2.8	2.3
2007
January	-2.8	1.7
February	-1.5	1.7
March	-1.5	1.8
April	-1.3	1.7
May	-0.8	1.8
June	-0.2	1.7
July	1.2	1.3
August	1.2	1.3
September	1.0	1.2
October	-0.1	1.2
November	-0.1	1.1
December	0.3	1.1
2008
January	-0.5	1.9
February	-3.2	2.0
March	-3.2	1.9
April	-1.4	2.0
May	-1.9	2.5
June	-2.6	2.7
July	-3.3	3.4
August	-3.3	3.6
September	0.3	3.6
October	-0.5	3.8
November	-0.5	3.8
December	-2.9	3.7
2009
January	-2.1	3.3
February	1.8	3.4
March	1.8	3.3
April	3.0	2.9
May	3.1	2.2
June	0.3	2.0
July	-0.3	1.3
August	-0.3	0.9
September	-0.8	0.8
October	2.2	0.5
November	2.2	0.5
December	-2.6	0.5
2010
January	-2.6	-0.3
February	-4.2	-0.5
March	-4.2	-0.5
April	-4.9	-0.5
May	-4.3	-0.2
June	-2.2	-0.1
July	-1.5	-0.3
August	-1.5	-0.5
September	-1.6	-0.3
October	-2.9	-0.2
November	-2.9	-0.1
December	1.3	-0.1
2011
January	1.5	0.5
February	2.4	0.3
March	2.4	0.2
April	-3.6	0.1
May	-3.7	0.0
June	-2.9	0.0
July	-2.7	0.1
August	-2.7	0.3
September	-5.2	0.5
October	-2.1	0.5
November	-2.1	0.3
December	-3.6	0.3
2012
January	-3.6	0.5
February	-4.9	0.7
March	-4.9	0.9
April	-2.2	1.0
May	-2.2	1.0
June	-2.8	1.0
July	-3.0	1.4
August	-3.0	1.2
September	0.7	1.1
October	0.5	1.0
November	0.5	1.1
December	1.2	1.1
2013
January	1.0	0.3
February	1.1	-0.1
March	1.1	0.2
April	0.3	0.3
May	-0.2	0.2
June	3.6	0.1
July	3.7	-0.2
August	3.6	-0.1
September	1.9	0.1
October	1.1	0.3
November	1.1	0.2
December	0.2	0.2
2014
January	0.2	1.1
February	1.5	1.5
March	1.5	1.5
April	-0.2	1.5
May	-0.6	1.6
June	-2.2	1.7
July	-2.3	1.7
August	-2.4	1.8
September	-4.1	1.5
October	-2.9	1.5
November	-2.9	1.8
December	-1.5	1.7
2015
January	-1.5	1.4
February	0.1	1.4
March	0.1	1.2
April	6.3	1.4
May	6.3	1.7
June	4.7	1.9
July	6.2	2.3
August	5.4	2.2
September	4.9	2.8
October	2.4	2.5
November	1.7	2.3
December	0.6	2.7
2016
January	1.8	2.6
February	-1.0	2.6
March	0.4	2.8
April	-0.1	2.5
May	1.0	2.3
June	1.3	2.2
July	0.4	1.7
August	1.6	1.8
September	1.6	1.5
October	1.8	1.7
November	2.4	2.4
December	4.8	1.6
2017
January	1.1	1.2
February	0.5	1.0
March	-1.4	0.8
April	-1.7	1.5
May	-1.6	1.6
June	-2.1	1.9
July	-2.9	2.0
August	-2.7	2.0
September	-3.3	2.0
October	-3.1	2.0
November	-1.1	1.9
December	-1.1	2.3
2018
January	-1.8	2.2
February	-1.8	2.2
March	-1.4	2.5
April	-2.5	3.0
May	-2.2	3.0
June	-2.5	2.8
July	-1.4	3.0
August	-1.8	3.1
September	0.1	3.1
October	0.1	3.3
November	-2.1	3.0
December	-2.1	2.8
2019
January	-0.2	3.0
February	-0.2	3.1
March	0.1	2.8
April	0.9	1.5
May	-0.5	1.8
June	-0.3	1.5
July	-1.7	1.2
August	-1.9	0.9
September	-1.1	1.2
October	-1.1	0.8
November	0.0	0.6
December	0.0	0.8
2020
January	-1.4	0.1
February	-1.4	1.6
March	-0.4	2.1
April	-0.4	2.3
May	-3.7	1.6
June	-3.5	1.3
July	0.9	2.0
August	0.8	1.6
September	0.9	2.0
October	0.9	1.9
November	2.8	1.7
December	2.8	2.3
2021
January	4.7	3.2
February	4.7	1.9
March	5.8	2.6
April	5.1	3.7
May	9.8	4.2
June	9.7	5.4
July	8.4	5.3
August	8.7	6.5
September	6.7	5.9
October	6.7	6.7
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0267-01  Industrial product price index, by industry, monthly, NAICS 337.

Data table for Chart 9



Data table for Chart 9
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 9 CPI and IPPI, calculated using percent (12 month change) units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	percent (12 month change)
2001
January	0.833333	1.893939
February	0.519751	2.395965
March	1.570681	1.503759
April	1.148225	1.877347
May	1.348548	0.869565
June	2.180685	0.743494
July	2.484472	0.493827
August	2.694301	0.867410
September	3.020833	0.123457
October	3.746098	1.111111
November	3.437500	0.370370
December	3.092784	1.602959
2002
January	2.685950	1.363073
February	3.102378	1.354680
March	2.577320	1.975309
April	2.167183	1.842752
May	2.354145	1.600985
June	1.626016	1.353014
July	1.515152	1.842752
August	1.210898	2.211302
September	1.112235	2.096178
October	-0.100301	1.221001
November	1.107754	1.353014
December	1.700000	0.364078
2003
January	1.408451	0.977995
February	1.103310	0.972053
March	1.507538	0.847458
April	1.414141	1.085645
May	0.500000	0.969697
June	0.200000	2.548544
July	-0.497512	1.206273
August	-0.099701	0.480769
September	0.800000	1.932367
October	0.301205	0.844391
November	-0.099602	0.970874
December	0.098328	2.781137
2004
January	-0.297619	1.452785
February	-0.297619	0.240674
March	-1.089109	0.960384
April	-0.199203	0.000000
May	-0.597015	0.600240
June	0.299401	-0.355030
July	0.100000	1.072706
August	-0.099800	1.913876
September	-0.793651	0.118483
October	-0.100100	1.435407
November	0.199402	1.923077
December	-0.982318	-1.294118
2005
January	-0.099502	0.715990
February	0.497512	2.280912
March	0.500501	0.832342
April	0.698603	1.073986
May	0.800801	0.835322
June	0.398010	0.593824
July	0.899101	1.179245
August	1.098901	0.469484
September	1.300000	0.710059
October	1.603206	1.415094
November	1.293532	0.471698
December	1.289683	1.072706
2006
January	2.091633	2.132701
February	0.792079	0.938967
March	1.593625	2.004717
April	2.378593	1.534829
May	2.184707	0.828402
June	2.576809	1.298701
July	1.980198	0.815851
August	1.778656	-0.233645
September	1.875617	1.175088
October	2.071006	0.581395
November	2.161100	0.704225
December	1.371205	1.650943
2007
January	1.463415	1.044084
February	2.357564	0.581395
March	2.058824	0.578035
April	0.677638	0.813953
May	0.971817	1.877934
June	1.062802	1.165501
July	1.067961	0.578035
August	0.970874	1.053864
September	0.968992	1.277584
October	1.062802	0.000000
November	-0.096154	1.398601
December	0.869565	0.812065
2008
January	-0.673077	0.918485
February	-1.055662	1.965318
March	-0.288184	1.149425
April	-0.192308	1.038062
May	0.673725	2.880184
June	-0.095602	0.921659
July	0.576369	2.528736
August	1.153846	3.244496
September	0.767754	2.178899
October	1.720841	3.468208
November	4.716073	2.643678
December	5.076628	3.107020
2009
January	6.292352	2.389078
February	6.498545	0.907029
March	6.454721	1.590909
April	6.840077	2.397260
May	5.736138	0.783875
June	5.071770	1.598174
July	4.489016	0.448430
August	3.897338	1.346801
September	3.428571	-0.448934
October	1.503759	-0.558659
November	-0.735294	0.671892
December	-0.729262	-1.227679
2010
January	-1.457195	-1.333333
February	-2.003643	-0.112360
March	-3.529412	0.111857
April	-4.057710	-1.337793
May	-3.978300	-0.111111
June	-3.278689	0.000000
July	-2.559415	-1.227679
August	-3.110704	-1.993355
September	-1.841621	-0.225479
October	-2.129630	0.224719
November	-1.666667	-1.557286
December	-2.203857	-0.338983
2011
January	-1.016636	-0.675676
February	-1.579926	-0.337458
March	-0.750469	-1.005587
April	1.033835	0.112994
May	1.694915	0.444939
June	1.035782	-0.112360
July	1.313321	1.581921
August	2.927290	2.146893
September	1.219512	1.920904
October	3.405866	-0.112108
November	2.919021	0.564972
December	2.253521	0.566893
2012
January	2.427638	0.453515
February	3.871577	-0.225734
March	3.497164	0.112867
April	2.046512	0.112867
May	1.296296	-1.550388
June	2.050326	0.000000
July	2.407407	-0.667408
August	1.376147	-1.327434
September	2.502317	-1.441242
October	1.738335	-0.224467
November	1.738335	0.000000
December	1.928375	0.338219
2013
January	0.729262	0.790068
February	0.090909	1.470588
March	1.095890	1.240135
April	1.823154	1.127396
May	1.919561	0.899888
June	1.095890	1.462317
July	0.361664	1.679731
August	0.000000	1.793722
September	-0.180832	1.912261
October	-0.449640	1.912261
November	-0.269784	2.022472
December	0.270270	2.359551
2014
January	0.090498	2.911534
February	0.635786	2.675585
March	0.632340	2.672606
April	-0.805730	2.564103
May	-0.538117	2.341137
June	0.813008	1.773836
July	0.090090	1.211454
August	0.995475	1.541850
September	0.452899	1.986755
October	0.271003	2.428256
November	0.631199	2.312775
December	0.898473	2.963776
2015
January	1.717902	3.046790
February	1.083032	3.474484
March	0.897666	3.579176
April	1.263538	3.369565
May	1.352570	3.376906
June	0.716846	3.485839
July	0.450045	4.570185
August	1.523297	4.772234
September	1.172227	4.761905
October	1.801802	3.987069
November	1.075269	4.305705
December	0.267142	4.051173
2016
January	0.622222	3.695882
February	1.428571	2.728227
March	1.334520	1.570681
April	0.445633	1.366982
May	0.266904	1.896733
June	0.355872	1.578947
July	1.523297	0.728408
August	0.706090	0.517598
September	-1.158645	0.516529
October	-1.415929	0.829016
November	-1.329787	0.825593
December	-1.332149	0.512295
2017
January	-2.561837	-0.610998
February	-2.200704	-0.510725
March	-1.404741	1.237113
April	0.000000	1.659751
May	-0.088731	1.758014
June	1.241135	1.036269
July	0.617829	-1.342975
August	-0.175285	-1.853759
September	0.901713	-2.980473
October	1.885099	-2.774923
November	1.886792	-2.763562
December	2.880288	-3.160041
2018
January	3.354488	-2.766393
February	3.150315	-2.156057
March	0.801425	-1.629328
April	0.887311	-1.836735
May	0.799290	-1.829268
June	-0.612960	0.923077
July	-0.438596	3.455497
August	-0.087796	3.357817
September	0.178731	4.449153
October	0.352423	4.122622
November	1.763668	4.315789
December	1.399825	5.052632
2019
January	2.368421	5.057956
February	2.268761	4.512067
March	2.826855	3.519669
April	2.990325	4.054054
May	3.524229	3.830228
June	4.933921	1.524390
July	5.462555	0.607287
August	4.920914	1.624365
September	7.582516	1.419878
October	4.741001	1.421320
November	3.812825	1.009082
December	2.588438	0.100200
2020
January	2.399314	0.300903
February	2.645051	1.004016
March	2.319588	2.200000
April	6.404782	2.797203
May	6.978723	2.293121
June	4.366079	1.701702
July	3.425230	0.905433
August	3.685092	-0.399600
September	1.409619	0.700000
October	5.783738	0.700701
November	4.257095	0.999001
December	5.046257	0.700701
2021
January	3.849372	0.200000
February	2.909393	-0.298211
March	3.694374	-1.859100
April	-1.123596	-2.721088
May	-1.511535	-2.046784
June	0.402253	-1.870079
July	0.323102	0.897308
August	-0.969305	1.905717
September	-0.245298	0.794439
October	-0.950872	0.695825
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0267-01  Industrial product price index, by industry, monthly, NAICS 3256.



Visual inspection of the graph for food shows that a correlation between cycles in the IPPI and the CPI exists in a majority of the periods. The correlation, however, is variable in its lag and extent, and is absent in some periods.^Note The remaining aggregates show visually and statistically negligible correlation.

The conclusion from the mid-level aggregates is that the predictive power of producer prices on consumer prices has been low to non-existent, except possibly for food, where a weak predictive link exists. The fact that contemporaneous correlations are stronger than lagged correlations (Table 2) is indicative that both producer prices and consumer prices respond to external factors, rather than to each other. Overall, the results from the mid-level aggregates point in the same direction as those from the top-line aggregates.

Low level aggregates

The method starts by identifying, at the lowest level of aggregation, commodities that are closely related in their IPPI and CPI definitions. Twenty such commodities were identified and the graphs show representative results for nine of those (for space reasons).^Note An example is butter. In the IPPI, fresh packaged butter as it leaves the creamery is identified by NAPCS 173121. When the producer price for fresh butter changes, a pass-through effect would be expected to show up in consumer prices. The pass-through effect will not be perfect, as margins related to transportation costs, wholesale, retail and taxes can buffer the effects before reaching the grocery store shelves. A visual inspection of the graphs however shows substantially different price indices corresponding to each IPPI/CPI pair for a majority of the commodities.

VAR modelling showed the presence of a predictive short-term link in some commodities; however, where the results were statistically reliable, the effect was muted. For example, after a percentage point increase in the price of pork on the producer side, consumer prices on average increased by 0.078 percentage points one month later. The magnitude of response did not increase after and the cumulative response remained at 0.071 percentage points twelve months after the initial increase in producer prices. In other cases, such as butter, the initial response to an increase in producer prices on consumer prices was higher, (0.49 percentage point after one month), but was not persistent. In the case of butter, after twelve months, the cumulative response was reduced to a muted 0.11 percentage point response.

Similarly, Granger causality was generally absent. A particularly striking finding was that no relation was found between some closely related food items. The primary ingredient in making bread is flour. Granger causality between the IPPI for flour and the IPPI for bread was tested, and none found. Likewise, there was no Granger causality between the IPPI price of bread and the CPI price of bread.

These observations are consistent with evidence from the graphical representations above and are consistent with the findings from the intermediate-level and top-level aggregates.

Data table for Chart 10



Data table for Chart 10
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 10 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	100.1	100.0
March	100.3	100.0
April	100.3	100.0
May	100.4	100.0
June	100.5	100.0
July	101.9	100.0
August	103.3	100.0
September	105.1	100.0
October	105.4	100.0
November	105.9	100.0
December	105.9	100.0
2001
January	106.0	100.2
February	106.1	99.8
March	106.1	99.9
April	106.3	100.1
May	106.3	99.9
June	106.5	99.9
July	106.7	101.3
August	106.8	101.2
September	106.7	101.2
October	106.8	101.2
November	106.9	101.3
December	106.9	101.3
2002
January	107.0	104.6
February	107.0	104.7
March	107.1	104.8
April	107.4	104.9
May	107.5	104.9
June	107.5	104.9
July	107.6	104.3
August	107.7	104.4
September	107.7	104.4
October	107.7	104.4
November	107.8	104.4
December	108.1	104.4
2003
January	108.3	105.2
February	108.4	105.3
March	108.5	105.3
April	108.5	105.5
May	108.6	105.4
June	108.5	105.8
July	108.6	106.0
August	106.9	106.0
September	106.9	106.0
October	107.0	106.1
November	107.1	106.1
December	107.1	106.1
2004
January	107.2	106.2
February	107.3	106.3
March	107.3	106.4
April	107.2	106.4
May	107.1	106.4
June	107.1	106.4
July	107.0	106.9
August	107.0	106.9
September	107.1	106.9
October	107.3	106.9
November	107.4	106.9
December	107.6	106.9
2005
January	107.7	107.2
February	108.1	107.3
March	108.4	107.3
April	108.3	107.4
May	108.4	107.5
June	108.3	107.5
July	108.8	107.7
August	108.8	107.7
September	108.7	107.7
October	109.0	107.7
November	109.0	107.7
December	109.1	107.9
2006
January	109.2	109.9
February	108.9	110.3
March	108.8	110.4
April	108.8	110.6
May	108.9	110.6
June	109.1	110.7
July	109.2	110.7
August	108.8	110.7
September	108.5	110.7
October	108.4	110.7
November	108.5	110.7
December	108.6	110.7
2007
January	108.7	110.8
February	108.9	111.0
March	108.5	111.0
April	108.6	111.0
May	109.1	111.0
June	109.2	111.0
July	109.4	111.5
August	109.4	111.6
September	109.2	111.6
October	109.2	111.6
November	109.6	111.6
December	109.0	111.6
2008
January	108.8	112.0
February	108.4	112.1
March	108.4	112.1
April	108.2	113.0
May	108.5	113.0
June	108.8	113.0
July	108.9	113.1
August	108.9	113.1
September	108.8	113.1
October	108.7	113.1
November	108.7	113.1
December	108.7	113.1
2009
January	108.9	113.5
February	109.1	113.6
March	108.6	113.6
April	108.5	114.6
May	110.1	114.6
June	111.7	114.6
July	112.3	115.0
August	112.9	115.0
September	113.2	115.0
October	113.0	115.6
November	113.3	115.6
December	113.0	115.7
2010
January	112.3	116.0
February	110.4	115.9
March	108.5	116.0
April	109.2	116.4
May	109.7	116.3
June	110.0	116.4
July	109.4	116.4
August	108.5	116.5
September	107.7	116.5
October	107.0	116.5
November	106.8	116.5
December	106.7	116.5
2011
January	106.3	116.7
February	106.2	117.0
March	106.1	116.9
April	105.9	117.9
May	105.3	117.9
June	104.9	117.9
July	104.3	117.9
August	104.3	117.9
September	104.1	118.0
October	104.1	117.9
November	104.1	117.6
December	104.1	117.5
2012
January	103.9	117.7
February	104.0	117.6
March	103.9	117.7
April	103.3	118.2
May	102.3	118.2
June	101.4	118.1
July	101.2	117.9
August	101.0	117.8
September	101.0	117.2
October	100.6	117.0
November	100.5	117.0
December	100.5	117.0
2013
January	100.4	117.3
February	100.4	117.4
March	100.5	117.2
April	99.6	117.6
May	97.8	117.7
June	97.2	117.5
July	96.8	117.9
August	96.8	117.9
September	96.8	117.9
October	96.7	117.9
November	96.7	118.0
December	96.7	118.5
2014
January	96.7	118.8
February	96.6	118.8
March	96.6	118.7
April	96.3	119.2
May	96.5	118.6
June	96.1	118.6
July	96.3	118.4
August	96.3	118.4
September	96.3	118.6
October	96.5	118.6
November	96.5	118.5
December	96.5	118.7
2015
January	96.5	119.0
February	96.5	119.1
March	96.5	119.2
April	96.3	119.4
May	96.5	119.2
June	96.1	119.5
July	96.0	119.5
August	96.0	119.6
September	96.0	119.5
October	96.0	119.5
November	96.0	119.6
December	95.8	120.1
2016
January	95.7	121.0
February	95.8	120.8
March	95.7	120.7
April	95.7	122.0
May	95.9	121.8
June	95.4	121.6
July	95.5	121.6
August	95.6	121.6
September	95.9	121.7
October	96.1	121.7
November	96.3	121.8
December	96.5	121.8
2017
January	96.5	122.0
February	96.5	122.0
March	96.5	122.1
April	96.3	122.4
May	96.1	122.5
June	95.8	122.3
July	95.9	122.2
August	95.8	122.2
September	95.8	122.1
October	95.8	122.1
November	95.7	122.2
December	95.6	122.2
2018
January	95.6	122.2
February	95.7	122.2
March	95.7	122.4
April	94.9	119.3
May	93.5	119.4
June	93.3	119.3
July	93.2	119.3
August	93.2	119.3
September	93.0	119.3
October	92.8	119.3
November	92.8	119.3
December	92.9	119.4
2019
January	92.8	119.3
February	92.8	119.3
March	92.9	119.6
April	92.9	120.4
May	93.1	120.4
June	93.2	120.4
July	93.3	120.3
August	93.3	120.5
September	93.4	120.5
October	93.4	120.5
November	93.5	120.4
December	93.5	120.3
2020
January	93.5	120.2
February	93.5	120.4
March	93.5	120.9
April	93.9	121.1
May	93.8	121.0
June	93.9	120.4
July	94.0	121.2
August	94.0	120.9
September	94.0	120.9
October	94.0	120.2
November	94.0	120.0
December	94.0	119.7
2021
January	94.0	119.6
February	94.0	121.3
March	94.0	120.8
April	94.1	120.2
May	94.4	123.9
June	94.5	124.1
July	94.5	124.7
August	94.5	124.5
September	94.5	124.5
October	94.5	124.4
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 273.

Data table for Chart 11



Data table for Chart 11
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 11 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	98.2	99.4
March	100.3	97.7
April	99.4	97.7
May	100.2	97.7
June	100.0	97.7
July	100.5	103.4
August	100.2	99.4
September	103.1	100.6
October	99.9	102.4
November	101.9	101.0
December	101.3	101.0
2001
January	104.4	100.6
February	102.7	101.1
March	103.3	100.4
April	100.9	100.4
May	102.8	100.4
June	104.4	100.4
July	104.1	100.4
August	101.7	100.4
September	103.5	99.8
October	102.6	99.9
November	104.8	99.5
December	104.3	99.2
2002
January	106.1	98.8
February	104.7	99.6
March	108.0	99.6
April	107.0	99.1
May	106.0	98.4
June	105.0	100.2
July	105.5	102.3
August	105.6	99.5
September	106.6	98.0
October	106.2	97.4
November	107.5	98.7
December	107.1	100.0
2003
January	109.0	99.9
February	108.3	100.0
March	109.7	100.5
April	107.1	102.2
May	108.0	102.1
June	108.8	102.0
July	106.8	102.3
August	108.1	101.5
September	108.6	101.5
October	108.1	103.7
November	110.6	102.8
December	110.0	103.5
2004
January	111.6	103.2
February	110.7	103.3
March	111.5	103.7
April	109.5	107.1
May	111.5	104.3
June	111.2	104.9
July	111.3	106.3
August	111.7	104.6
September	112.4	107.0
October	110.2	106.9
November	111.6	106.7
December	110.1	107.0
2005
January	115.1	106.7
February	114.7	107.3
March	115.2	108.2
April	118.0	108.8
May	115.8	109.9
June	117.0	107.2
July	114.8	110.5
August	117.1	110.5
September	117.7	110.5
October	112.1	110.5
November	118.9	110.5
December	117.0	110.5
2006
January	118.8	110.5
February	118.9	111.2
March	119.7	111.2
April	119.3	111.9
May	120.9	111.9
June	119.9	111.9
July	118.8	111.9
August	119.8	111.9
September	124.7	111.9
October	118.7	110.3
November	122.7	110.3
December	120.2	110.3
2007
January	123.1	110.3
February	123.0	110.3
March	121.9	110.3
April	121.7	111.9
May	125.6	111.9
June	125.0	113.1
July	123.0	113.8
August	122.7	113.8
September	125.9	113.8
October	122.7	113.8
November	125.0	113.8
December	128.6	113.8
2008
January	130.0	113.8
February	128.2	113.8
March	124.9	115.1
April	129.1	117.4
May	130.2	117.4
June	130.2	117.4
July	127.9	117.4
August	128.3	117.4
September	130.8	117.4
October	129.8	118.4
November	133.2	118.4
December	131.9	118.4
2009
January	138.8	118.4
February	137.6	118.4
March	138.8	119.5
April	133.6	119.5
May	135.1	119.5
June	137.8	119.5
July	136.3	119.5
August	134.5	119.5
September	137.4	119.5
October	136.5	119.5
November	137.3	121.9
December	139.5	121.9
2010
January	141.8	121.9
February	140.8	121.9
March	138.4	121.9
April	136.7	121.9
May	140.3	121.9
June	138.3	121.9
July	138.8	121.9
August	141.3	121.9
September	141.6	121.9
October	140.3	121.9
November	141.7	120.8
December	140.1	120.8
2011
January	142.8	120.8
February	143.0	120.8
March	145.0	121.7
April	142.5	124.8
May	143.3	126.5
June	139.1	126.5
July	139.1	126.5
August	142.2	126.5
September	142.8	126.5
October	143.9	126.5
November	144.3	126.9
December	141.7	126.9
2012
January	145.9	126.9
February	145.5	127.7
March	145.0	127.7
April	143.8	127.7
May	147.5	127.7
June	146.2	127.7
July	146.8	131.4
August	146.5	131.4
September	145.1	132.7
October	144.8	132.7
November	149.1	132.7
December	144.6	132.7
2013
January	147.7	132.7
February	149.0	132.7
March	145.4	132.7
April	144.7	132.7
May	147.1	132.7
June	144.8	132.7
July	140.2	132.7
August	146.2	132.7
September	141.8	132.7
October	144.4	132.7
November	144.6	132.7
December	141.4	132.7
2014
January	144.1	132.7
February	145.2	132.7
March	144.5	132.7
April	139.2	132.7
May	140.3	132.7
June	138.4	132.7
July	137.0	132.7
August	141.4	132.7
September	140.1	132.7
October	138.2	132.7
November	137.3	132.7
December	138.6	132.7
2015
January	141.9	132.7
February	141.4	132.7
March	139.5	132.7
April	140.1	132.7
May	139.3	132.7
June	137.6	132.7
July	135.2	132.7
August	134.4	132.7
September	137.3	132.7
October	139.2	132.7
November	134.3	132.7
December	135.0	132.7
2016
January	136.6	132.7
February	138.2	132.7
March	135.9	132.7
April	136.5	132.7
May	135.5	132.7
June	131.0	132.7
July	133.5	132.7
August	135.1	132.7
September	131.2	132.7
October	133.2	132.7
November	131.7	132.7
December	133.0	132.7
2017
January	138.0	135.0
February	137.3	135.0
March	133.5	135.0
April	132.4	136.5
May	134.6	136.5
June	130.5	134.2
July	131.2	133.3
August	131.2	133.3
September	130.5	133.2
October	130.5	133.2
November	132.4	133.2
December	133.0	133.2
2018
January	135.5	133.2
February	136.0	133.2
March	138.0	130.8
April	133.7	130.8
May	131.3	130.8
June	127.5	130.8
July	127.2	130.8
August	128.7	130.8
September	127.2	146.1
October	130.0	146.1
November	130.6	146.1
December	132.0	153.3
2019
January	134.8	153.3
February	135.5	153.3
March	136.1	153.3
April	136.2	153.3
May	134.0	153.3
June	127.9	153.3
July	129.9	153.3
August	129.9	153.3
September	134.4	153.3
October	135.8	153.3
November	133.9	153.3
December	135.2	153.3
2020
January	138.0	153.3
February	135.7	153.3
March	142.2	153.3
April	137.4	153.3
May	145.0	153.3
June	141.0	153.3
July	141.9	153.3
August	140.5	153.3
September	142.8	153.3
October	141.0	153.3
November	140.4	153.3
December	135.8	153.3
2021
January	139.9	153.3
February	141.7	153.3
March	140.2	149.7
April	138.5	149.7
May	143.0	149.7
June	136.0	150.0
July	137.5	150.0
August	135.8	150.0
September	145.4	150.0
October	140.4	150.0
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 17314.

Data table for Chart 12



Data table for Chart 12
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 12 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2011
January	100.0	100.0
February	100.5	101.3
March	102.3	102.3
April	100.7	102.7
May	101.8	102.7
June	102.5	102.7
July	101.2	102.7
August	100.5	103.0
September	101.8	103.0
October	102.1	103.0
November	101.0	103.0
December	100.2	102.9
2012
January	99.3	102.9
February	101.3	103.5
March	102.8	104.5
April	101.1	105.0
May	101.2	104.9
June	100.9	105.0
July	101.4	105.0
August	102.0	104.9
September	101.8	105.0
October	100.4	105.0
November	101.2	105.0
December	100.9	105.1
2013
January	99.5	105.1
February	102.5	105.1
March	101.4	105.1
April	101.8	105.7
May	100.8	106.2
June	99.5	106.2
July	101.5	106.2
August	102.4	106.2
September	100.2	106.2
October	99.4	106.2
November	100.2	106.2
December	98.9	106.6
2014
January	99.8	106.6
February	100.2	107.4
March	99.9	107.9
April	100.4	107.9
May	100.1	107.9
June	100.3	107.9
July	100.3	107.9
August	100.5	107.9
September	102.3	107.9
October	100.6	107.9
November	103.8	107.9
December	103.2	107.9
2015
January	101.3	107.9
February	103.2	107.9
March	102.4	107.9
April	100.7	107.9
May	102.5	107.9
June	104.5	108.5
July	102.5	108.6
August	101.6	108.6
September	101.2	108.6
October	103.3	108.6
November	103.1	108.6
December	101.9	108.6
2016
January	101.4	108.6
February	101.8	109.3
March	100.8	110.3
April	101.8	111.2
May	100.6	111.3
June	99.8	111.3
July	99.1	111.3
August	99.8	111.3
September	97.9	112.9
October	99.2	113.0
November	100.1	113.0
December	98.0	113.0
2017
January	100.2	112.8
February	98.8	112.8
March	98.8	112.8
April	99.8	113.8
May	99.0	113.8
June	98.8	113.8
July	96.8	113.8
August	97.5	113.8
September	96.7	113.8
October	96.0	113.8
November	96.1	113.8
December	96.9	113.8
2018
January	96.7	113.8
February	96.7	114.4
March	96.1	114.8
April	97.7	114.8
May	97.9	114.8
June	97.0	114.6
July	96.0	113.5
August	96.3	114.3
September	97.2	114.8
October	94.8	116.3
November	95.2	114.1
December	97.2	114.4
2019
January	95.9	117.2
February	96.6	115.0
March	96.6	114.4
April	98.2	117.1
May	98.7	117.2
June	97.5	116.8
July	98.1	117.0
August	98.3	116.5
September	98.3	116.9
October	97.0	116.6
November	97.4	116.9
December	98.9	116.7
2020
January	100.2	116.7
February	99.8	118.9
March	99.8	120.3
April	103.5	120.3
May	102.7	120.3
June	101.2	120.3
July	101.3	120.0
August	102.1	120.0
September	100.3	120.0
October	98.8	119.9
November	102.1	119.9
December	101.5	119.9
2021
January	103.1	119.9
February	102.9	121.9
March	102.5	122.1
April	104.4	122.1
May	104.8	122.1
June	104.3	122.1
July	103.9	122.3
August	106.2	122.8
September	104.9	122.9
October	103.4	123.0
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 17313.

Data table for Chart 13



Data table for Chart 13
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 13 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	100.8	100.1
March	100.6	100.2
April	100.6	100.6
May	102.1	100.7
June	102.6	100.7
July	102.2	100.7
August	100.7	100.8
September	102.2	100.9
October	102.3	100.4
November	102.2	100.7
December	102.7	100.5
2001
January	103.4	100.1
February	105.8	100.8
March	107.3	101.3
April	107.3	102.5
May	107.6	102.5
June	108.1	102.6
July	108.0	102.8
August	107.8	102.9
September	107.8	102.9
October	107.9	102.6
November	107.9	102.7
December	108.2	102.3
2002
January	108.3	102.6
February	109.5	104.3
March	111.5	104.6
April	112.2	105.7
May	112.2	105.5
June	110.3	106.1
July	111.8	106.1
August	111.6	105.9
September	111.9	106.0
October	111.9	106.1
November	111.7	105.7
December	112.1	105.9
2003
January	112.5	105.5
February	115.6	106.5
March	115.8	107.3
April	116.5	108.4
May	116.7	108.3
June	116.0	108.5
July	116.0	108.2
August	116.6	108.4
September	116.2	108.5
October	116.4	108.4
November	116.0	108.3
December	115.5	108.2
2004
January	115.9	108.6
February	118.0	110.3
March	119.0	111.5
April	118.8	112.8
May	119.1	112.5
June	118.5	112.4
July	119.5	111.8
August	118.9	112.9
September	118.6	112.9
October	118.9	112.9
November	119.2	112.5
December	119.7	113.3
2005
January	120.1	112.1
February	121.8	119.7
March	127.6	120.4
April	128.9	119.3
May	129.7	119.3
June	130.7	119.2
July	130.3	119.4
August	131.0	119.2
September	130.9	119.1
October	131.0	119.2
November	130.7	120.1
December	130.7	119.8
2006
January	130.9	118.7
February	130.7	121.0
March	131.5	119.2
April	130.5	119.7
May	131.8	119.5
June	132.0	120.7
July	132.0	120.2
August	132.0	120.4
September	131.5	120.0
October	128.7	120.1
November	131.3	120.7
December	131.0	120.3
2007
January	133.0	118.9
February	132.5	119.2
March	133.1	119.4
April	133.7	119.6
May	132.6	120.7
June	134.5	120.3
July	134.0	118.1
August	134.3	120.0
September	133.8	120.3
October	133.4	119.4
November	132.4	119.3
December	130.6	120.2
2008
January	135.8	119.2
February	135.8	120.1
March	136.2	122.9
April	135.7	120.8
May	136.0	120.9
June	138.6	121.4
July	138.3	121.9
August	138.5	121.4
September	137.8	121.4
October	139.4	122.0
November	139.6	122.8
December	138.6	124.2
2009
January	141.3	124.0
February	141.2	122.2
March	142.9	123.6
April	142.3	123.3
May	141.9	123.6
June	143.3	123.7
July	142.0	124.1
August	139.3	123.9
September	140.2	124.6
October	138.9	123.6
November	139.3	123.4
December	138.0	123.5
2010
January	140.0	123.0
February	141.9	124.3
March	142.8	125.0
April	140.2	123.8
May	139.9	125.6
June	138.2	124.1
July	137.6	125.3
August	136.6	124.1
September	137.6	124.1
October	136.8	125.3
November	139.3	123.9
December	137.6	122.0
2011
January	139.5	121.9
February	142.6	122.5
March	143.7	122.5
April	142.2	122.3
May	144.0	122.4
June	142.2	122.5
July	142.7	124.1
August	143.0	122.4
September	144.2	123.6
October	143.4	122.1
November	141.7	123.1
December	142.6	122.4
2012
January	144.2	122.4
February	144.7	124.1
March	146.1	124.1
April	144.7	124.5
May	145.2	124.3
June	145.2	124.3
July	146.1	124.6
August	144.8	124.6
September	143.9	124.6
October	143.2	124.7
November	143.9	124.8
December	141.2	124.7
2013
January	144.2	124.7
February	144.0	124.7
March	141.9	124.5
April	142.7	125.2
May	142.2	124.7
June	145.6	125.4
July	143.8	124.3
August	145.6	124.6
September	144.5	124.1
October	142.9	124.0
November	143.5	123.8
December	143.0	124.7
2014
January	143.0	124.2
February	142.3	125.5
March	146.5	125.9
April	148.4	127.4
May	147.6	127.2
June	146.6	127.7
July	145.2	126.9
August	147.9	128.1
September	147.5	128.4
October	147.1	129.2
November	148.5	130.5
December	147.1	129.4
2015
January	147.4	126.8
February	148.7	124.7
March	149.3	125.6
April	145.7	125.8
May	149.4	125.8
June	148.6	125.9
July	150.1	125.4
August	148.3	127.8
September	150.7	127.4
October	148.1	128.0
November	151.2	128.3
December	150.4	128.1
2016
January	153.1	127.5
February	156.4	131.9
March	156.1	130.2
April	156.8	129.2
May	156.4	128.1
June	153.2	128.9
July	156.7	128.7
August	155.5	129.2
September	153.3	130.4
October	146.6	130.5
November	147.5	131.0
December	148.4	130.5
2017
January	149.2	129.7
February	148.7	130.2
March	155.6	131.3
April	153.3	130.7
May	154.5	131.6
June	155.5	131.3
July	155.8	131.2
August	155.2	131.8
September	156.0	131.9
October	152.6	132.8
November	152.6	133.4
December	150.9	132.0
2018
January	154.9	131.5
February	156.3	132.0
March	153.5	133.6
April	153.2	134.2
May	151.4	131.7
June	149.5	131.3
July	154.7	132.1
August	151.6	130.1
September	154.9	129.3
October	154.1	130.2
November	154.9	129.3
December	154.4	129.8
2019
January	162.7	130.8
February	162.6	130.7
March	161.5	130.1
April	154.1	130.2
May	160.2	130.1
June	155.3	132.1
July	166.1	130.8
August	161.4	130.1
September	162.6	129.3
October	162.3	130.5
November	157.2	129.3
December	159.0	127.6
2020
January	160.2	129.2
February	173.0	129.5
March	170.9	128.3
April	166.0	127.7
May	167.3	127.4
June	164.2	121.6
July	163.1	122.3
August	163.8	126.9
September	171.0	127.9
October	168.0	124.4
November	170.4	123.2
December	169.0	123.8
2021
January	176.1	123.3
February	170.9	125.9
March	178.9	125.9
April	176.5	125.4
May	181.4	127.3
June	180.3	128.0
July	179.3	128.3
August	180.5	128.9
September	181.8	129.2
October	177.2	129.1
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 173121.

Data table for Chart 14



Data table for Chart 14
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 14 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	97.1	99.5
March	97.7	99.7
April	99.0	97.6
May	98.3	97.1
June	98.2	97.5
July	99.2	97.6
August	99.5	98.2
September	98.2	98.8
October	101.6	100.5
November	101.0	100.4
December	101.0	100.7
2001
January	103.4	102.7
February	102.4	103.2
March	102.2	103.8
April	102.4	104.8
May	103.4	105.6
June	103.5	105.9
July	105.5	106.7
August	105.2	107.1
September	106.0	106.7
October	106.8	105.1
November	104.8	104.0
December	105.0	103.7
2002
January	105.3	104.0
February	104.1	104.7
March	104.4	105.0
April	104.2	102.6
May	105.1	100.6
June	103.5	100.7
July	104.2	100.9
August	104.4	101.9
September	103.7	101.1
October	106.9	100.4
November	105.4	103.7
December	105.3	105.1
2003
January	107.2	104.0
February	107.1	104.1
March	107.9	104.5
April	109.7	104.4
May	110.2	105.2
June	109.8	105.2
July	113.1	105.9
August	114.0	108.4
September	110.8	109.7
October	113.5	109.7
November	114.0	109.7
December	113.2	111.7
2004
January	113.1	111.7
February	113.7	111.7
March	115.5	111.7
April	116.9	111.8
May	116.5	111.8
June	122.9	112.1
July	123.9	112.1
August	125.3	110.9
September	123.6	110.7
October	123.7	109.6
November	118.0	107.7
December	119.6	107.0
2005
January	119.0	106.6
February	119.0	105.9
March	120.5	104.9
April	120.2	104.1
May	117.9	104.0
June	119.6	104.3
July	119.2	104.3
August	120.0	103.8
September	120.1	105.2
October	122.5	103.6
November	118.1	103.0
December	118.4	100.8
2006
January	119.4	100.6
February	115.8	100.7
March	119.4	100.6
April	119.5	100.4
May	118.4	101.2
June	118.0	103.1
July	117.3	103.8
August	121.6	105.2
September	121.9	108.1
October	122.7	106.6
November	123.8	109.7
December	122.7	111.3
2007
January	124.4	112.7
February	126.0	113.2
March	128.6	115.2
April	130.9	115.5
May	128.5	117.7
June	128.9	117.1
July	129.6	117.7
August	129.7	117.3
September	130.3	115.1
October	129.2	110.6
November	129.7	109.8
December	128.8	107.5
2008
January	133.1	105.3
February	130.2	104.2
March	131.7	104.4
April	129.3	104.4
May	131.3	104.2
June	132.8	104.2
July	134.2	104.5
August	136.9	104.7
September	136.0	104.8
October	137.4	105.0
November	139.9	105.0
December	135.4	105.0
2009
January	141.8	104.9
February	137.6	105.0
March	142.5	105.2
April	140.9	105.1
May	137.3	105.0
June	139.3	105.4
July	140.7	105.4
August	141.0	105.3
September	140.7	105.3
October	140.8	105.2
November	141.8	105.5
December	138.8	105.5
2010
January	140.0	105.7
February	138.4	105.2
March	139.4	105.1
April	141.0	105.4
May	137.5	105.5
June	139.2	105.6
July	140.9	105.8
August	140.6	105.7
September	140.0	105.6
October	141.4	105.5
November	140.5	105.5
December	143.2	105.6
2011
January	145.0	105.7
February	141.6	105.8
March	140.6	106.3
April	143.6	106.3
May	143.5	106.1
June	143.2	106.2
July	145.7	106.2
August	145.7	106.2
September	147.9	106.5
October	144.9	106.7
November	146.3	107.5
December	146.9	107.4
2012
January	150.6	107.7
February	149.6	107.2
March	148.5	107.1
April	149.8	106.9
May	153.5	107.9
June	148.0	108.2
July	151.9	108.1
August	152.0	108.4
September	151.3	107.8
October	153.0	108.2
November	150.3	108.5
December	152.1	108.4
2013
January	154.6	108.3
February	151.4	108.3
March	152.8	108.3
April	153.9	108.2
May	152.3	107.9
June	150.8	108.1
July	153.9	108.2
August	156.0	109.8
September	153.3	107.1
October	156.6	104.5
November	153.5	105.4
December	153.3	103.0
2014
January	152.6	105.1
February	149.6	105.4
March	150.2	105.0
April	152.0	107.3
May	153.3	109.0
June	153.8	110.2
July	155.0	112.2
August	158.5	110.9
September	159.1	111.5
October	160.8	110.2
November	156.0	108.4
December	158.4	108.0
2015
January	160.0	106.3
February	158.7	107.4
March	157.7	105.6
April	160.9	105.2
May	159.9	106.7
June	158.6	109.9
July	163.2	109.3
August	164.1	109.6
September	164.6	109.5
October	166.9	113.2
November	165.8	109.6
December	164.2	110.6
2016
January	162.9	109.7
February	160.8	108.5
March	163.2	108.2
April	160.2	106.3
May	162.1	105.8
June	159.9	105.8
July	163.2	105.5
August	163.8	106.9
September	165.1	108.2
October	166.5	109.2
November	162.1	107.7
December	163.1	105.6
2017
January	164.7	106.1
February	160.1	106.0
March	161.0	106.6
April	161.8	107.5
May	160.8	108.6
June	165.5	109.5
July	167.6	111.1
August	168.8	112.0
September	171.7	111.2
October	169.2	108.8
November	170.3	106.2
December	168.0	106.7
2018
January	170.7	106.5
February	166.6	105.4
March	164.4	105.9
April	168.8	105.8
May	162.2	106.0
June	163.2	105.4
July	166.4	107.8
August	166.4	107.1
September	168.8	108.3
October	171.9	107.3
November	166.8	107.2
December	169.5	105.8
2019
January	169.3	106.0
February	165.1	107.2
March	163.6	107.0
April	166.5	108.6
May	166.2	109.9
June	169.5	111.4
July	179.9	112.2
August	179.7	112.4
September	181.2	111.5
October	181.7	109.3
November	174.3	107.4
December	169.7	106.6
2020
January	182.1	113.4
February	178.2	116.3
March	179.3	118.4
April	176.1	108.5
May	175.0	99.9
June	167.2	113.0
July	178.2	121.3
August	178.3	121.2
September	177.2	117.8
October	186.1	110.4
November	180.0	108.1
December	176.3	107.8
2021
January	182.4	110.5
February	175.7	115.4
March	178.8	123.9
April	187.7	126.3
May	183.7	126.8
June	185.0	133.5
July	191.3	134.3
August	193.3	129.7
September	195.4	126.6
October	201.6	125.6
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 17213.

Data table for Chart 15



Data table for chart 15
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 15 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	99.0	95.7
March	102.2	102.4
April	103.3	112.8
May	107.5	118.5
June	109.2	120.5
July	112.3	118.8
August	110.6	116.2
September	111.0	98.0
October	110.0	95.7
November	108.7	92.1
December	111.4	91.6
2001
January	111.1	94.7
February	108.5	103.1
March	112.1	106.3
April	121.6	118.6
May	118.5	111.7
June	117.7	115.9
July	119.9	125.3
August	120.5	124.2
September	119.0	116.3
October	120.0	112.6
November	117.6	101.8
December	116.2	101.2
2002
January	117.7	100.3
February	118.0	101.8
March	112.4	101.7
April	114.6	97.7
May	114.4	95.3
June	114.6	91.5
July	112.8	102.5
August	113.2	99.9
September	112.1	92.2
October	112.3	104.0
November	110.2	95.0
December	109.4	95.9
2003
January	112.3	101.3
February	112.4	99.9
March	115.1	100.3
April	113.1	101.3
May	115.1	105.1
June	115.7	104.1
July	114.0	106.8
August	111.9	104.2
September	111.5	102.5
October	115.4	101.3
November	113.2	94.4
December	113.2	95.4
2004
January	112.7	92.2
February	113.7	105.9
March	114.2	111.0
April	114.3	114.7
May	118.0	126.9
June	124.9	116.9
July	126.3	118.3
August	125.8	113.8
September	123.8	100.4
October	125.0	100.6
November	120.9	97.3
December	120.8	99.1
2005
January	120.8	96.6
February	122.8	96.7
March	122.2	94.0
April	121.6	90.9
May	120.5	98.0
June	123.2	88.0
July	120.9	84.6
August	122.1	98.9
September	120.1	92.5
October	120.5	88.4
November	117.0	85.6
December	117.4	83.2
2006
January	114.4	82.2
February	116.7	78.1
March	114.3	82.0
April	115.8	79.3
May	113.3	80.8
June	113.1	86.8
July	112.8	96.5
August	116.3	88.2
September	117.0	91.5
October	115.3	82.2
November	113.1	81.4
December	112.3	83.5
2007
January	115.8	86.3
February	115.2	96.7
March	111.4	94.1
April	116.3	89.5
May	115.6	94.2
June	116.1	91.9
July	116.3	90.2
August	118.2	86.9
September	117.4	82.9
October	115.6	78.0
November	113.5	75.4
December	110.8	78.6
2008
January	114.5	76.4
February	113.4	76.8
March	114.4	76.0
April	114.3	74.9
May	115.9	86.5
June	116.9	87.3
July	116.9	88.2
August	117.6	92.8
September	119.9	91.5
October	118.0	91.2
November	120.1	90.4
December	119.5	90.1
2009
January	120.1	88.4
February	119.9	88.9
March	122.0	91.2
April	122.6	91.6
May	123.8	91.5
June	121.7	89.3
July	120.9	89.1
August	120.9	89.1
September	122.1	88.5
October	120.8	88.5
November	119.8	88.7
December	117.7	89.1
2010
January	116.7	90.1
February	118.4	90.4
March	116.1	90.4
April	117.8	90.5
May	120.8	90.8
June	121.9	91.2
July	121.2	90.8
August	121.7	90.8
September	123.8	92.6
October	125.5	92.5
November	123.0	91.3
December	123.0	92.9
2011
January	124.3	92.4
February	124.6	99.4
March	126.9	100.5
April	127.6	102.8
May	129.1	100.9
June	127.9	98.3
July	128.7	100.8
August	131.8	102.2
September	134.3	98.6
October	130.9	100.9
November	131.8	97.7
December	130.0	95.5
2012
January	129.2	95.6
February	134.2	99.4
March	133.3	98.1
April	135.5	95.4
May	134.7	92.6
June	131.1	95.1
July	135.9	100.4
August	137.9	97.0
September	135.0	92.9
October	137.8	96.1
November	134.8	97.5
December	133.9	96.9
2013
January	134.3	99.1
February	135.2	97.3
March	136.0	96.1
April	133.0	99.8
May	135.0	103.9
June	137.5	112.8
July	138.5	120.6
August	138.7	119.4
September	141.4	116.1
October	142.2	114.6
November	140.5	110.9
December	139.4	109.5
2014
January	140.4	109.8
February	143.7	119.5
March	144.3	139.2
April	152.2	149.9
May	157.5	140.7
June	160.3	144.3
July	159.9	152.0
August	157.5	141.9
September	161.0	138.2
October	162.8	134.8
November	160.8	132.0
December	161.1	128.1
2015
January	162.2	133.5
February	161.5	130.7
March	161.3	127.2
April	163.1	130.6
May	162.2	140.3
June	162.1	143.6
July	163.1	142.2
August	165.8	145.1
September	165.5	147.2
October	166.5	146.6
November	162.9	142.6
December	163.1	133.5
2016
January	163.6	139.9
February	160.4	149.7
March	164.6	145.6
April	159.9	146.9
May	160.3	149.0
June	158.3	158.2
July	164.2	153.5
August	161.9	144.7
September	161.0	139.9
October	157.5	140.5
November	158.1	139.1
December	158.5	129.8
2017
January	156.5	138.7
February	154.7	149.4
March	153.5	150.2
April	157.9	145.7
May	159.5	149.4
June	161.3	164.9
July	163.1	165.7
August	165.0	157.0
September	159.5	143.0
October	160.3	139.9
November	158.2	148.2
December	160.5	143.8
2018
January	156.4	144.9
February	157.7	142.6
March	157.2	136.4
April	161.2	139.5
May	159.1	142.8
June	161.9	148.2
July	165.0	151.3
August	162.3	140.7
September	163.5	140.4
October	162.7	149.6
November	159.9	147.2
December	158.9	143.0
2019
January	161.5	144.8
February	157.0	142.1
March	153.6	150.2
April	159.7	168.6
May	161.4	171.8
June	163.1	171.0
July	166.3	158.8
August	161.7	174.6
September	166.3	153.7
October	161.5	149.5
November	161.1	149.6
December	165.4	170.2
2020
January	166.9	166.3
February	168.3	145.2
March	165.3	146.9
April	174.1	159.1
May	171.3	210.9
June	176.8	168.7
July	172.1	151.6
August	166.1	149.6
September	165.6	164.1
October	167.0	169.3
November	169.2	143.7
December	169.2	136.4
2021
January	170.4	138.9
February	164.9	145.7
March	164.2	148.7
April	168.8	159.5
May	167.9	175.1
June	172.6	186.6
July	178.1	154.0
August	181.5	153.4
September	181.4	156.2
October	181.7	146.2
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 17212.

Data table for Chart 16



Data table for chart 16
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 16 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	102.3	99.8
March	102.8	100.6
April	105.7	102.1
May	106.0	102.0
June	106.8	102.2
July	108.1	101.8
August	108.7	101.6
September	108.9	100.4
October	107.7	101.0
November	107.4	102.1
December	110.1	101.7
2001
January	112.7	104.5
February	117.1	102.8
March	122.1	107.4
April	124.7	107.0
May	126.2	106.2
June	126.0	105.3
July	123.4	104.7
August	122.3	105.0
September	123.7	103.8
October	122.9	104.3
November	122.1	105.0
December	124.3	105.3
2002
January	124.0	106.2
February	125.5	107.5
March	125.9	107.4
April	128.9	107.0
May	127.4	105.1
June	127.9	105.3
July	127.4	104.1
August	127.4	101.3
September	126.6	99.8
October	126.5	100.5
November	126.0	101.6
December	127.6	108.2
2003
January	129.7	108.8
February	134.5	112.3
March	134.6	114.4
April	136.8	112.3
May	133.8	112.3
June	132.3	110.7
July	125.7	91.6
August	115.3	83.3
September	114.4	90.7
October	119.8	94.7
November	127.8	104.9
December	127.0	104.9
2004
January	125.1	100.3
February	126.6	102.5
March	127.4	104.0
April	127.4	107.8
May	130.4	108.7
June	136.2	110.0
July	136.0	110.6
August	136.9	107.5
September	136.1	95.0
October	133.6	95.3
November	134.5	90.2
December	134.7	92.2
2005
January	135.5	96.2
February	134.2	99.4
March	135.9	98.7
April	135.5	97.0
May	135.0	97.5
June	136.0	91.5
July	134.1	90.7
August	133.3	88.9
September	133.0	89.0
October	132.7	90.5
November	134.7	90.6
December	134.3	95.7
2006
January	133.3	93.9
February	133.8	95.4
March	132.4	93.9
April	132.4	94.1
May	133.5	96.6
June	135.0	93.9
July	134.3	97.2
August	133.6	95.5
September	136.8	98.0
October	136.4	96.7
November	137.3	94.8
December	136.6	95.0
2007
January	135.1	96.2
February	137.5	99.2
March	137.6	101.0
April	139.7	103.6
May	140.6	102.7
June	141.2	98.1
July	139.5	97.8
August	137.5	93.2
September	137.6	92.1
October	138.4	87.5
November	136.2	88.7
December	137.6	92.2
2008
January	135.9	93.0
February	137.1	92.0
March	137.0	93.6
April	138.8	95.6
May	139.5	96.1
June	139.4	97.7
July	139.2	101.7
August	142.2	105.5
September	144.1	96.9
October	144.0	95.3
November	146.9	97.0
December	148.2	97.9
2009
January	146.5	97.2
February	149.6	97.9
March	148.4	101.4
April	151.3	105.2
May	152.2	98.8
June	153.0	96.2
July	151.5	93.8
August	149.6	94.3
September	148.4	92.0
October	146.1	90.8
November	146.6	93.1
December	147.1	90.8
2010
January	145.2	89.1
February	146.9	89.3
March	147.1	91.4
April	147.3	94.8
May	150.2	94.8
June	148.7	91.0
July	149.9	89.5
August	149.3	90.6
September	151.2	90.6
October	150.4	89.6
November	148.9	92.2
December	152.9	92.7
2011
January	150.8	91.5
February	151.6	92.5
March	156.7	97.3
April	158.2	98.2
May	160.2	94.1
June	162.4	93.5
July	161.3	92.9
August	161.5	92.9
September	162.5	93.0
October	162.2	92.4
November	162.7	94.3
December	165.3	98.4
2012
January	168.8	98.5
February	168.3	104.4
March	169.3	107.6
April	168.2	107.6
May	171.7	108.7
June	173.8	112.4
July	173.1	106.3
August	173.9	106.7
September	172.6	108.1
October	171.6	109.0
November	174.0	107.4
December	173.9	103.4
2013
January	172.4	107.0
February	177.6	107.0
March	175.3	106.7
April	176.2	105.6
May	176.3	110.8
June	176.8	110.7
July	176.7	108.5
August	176.8	107.1
September	177.1	108.2
October	176.9	107.4
November	178.3	109.6
December	178.3	112.5
2014
January	179.5	114.2
February	188.1	114.6
March	192.0	119.2
April	193.8	120.5
May	197.3	121.2
June	199.5	124.3
July	199.5	133.3
August	200.9	136.9
September	209.6	138.1
October	211.3	142.1
November	215.5	144.7
December	218.5	150.8
2015
January	218.6	151.3
February	223.2	152.7
March	226.2	155.6
April	229.9	157.3
May	232.3	158.1
June	236.1	158.4
July	233.7	157.6
August	231.8	159.5
September	234.9	153.6
October	238.4	147.3
November	233.0	147.0
December	231.2	144.4
2016
January	230.2	150.8
February	230.4	150.3
March	240.4	142.5
April	235.6	140.6
May	234.7	134.9
June	228.3	135.1
July	226.7	133.5
August	224.3	129.7
September	224.6	131.0
October	225.6	129.1
November	219.6	127.7
December	218.9	126.8
2017
January	218.3	133.6
February	220.8	132.2
March	223.6	138.3
April	224.2	142.3
May	226.9	149.8
June	226.7	149.0
July	227.9	141.3
August	226.6	140.6
September	225.2	134.0
October	220.2	135.8
November	223.8	139.3
December	225.0	138.5
2018
January	222.7	142.9
February	222.9	141.3
March	221.5	143.8
April	228.8	140.2
May	225.5	142.7
June	227.5	140.9
July	225.2	141.7
August	229.5	138.6
September	227.6	134.4
October	224.1	132.7
November	227.2	134.1
December	224.7	138.5
2019
January	228.3	139.9
February	226.0	138.1
March	228.8	140.6
April	227.0	144.4
May	231.2	145.8
June	234.1	140.3
July	231.7	135.7
August	234.2	139.2
September	238.4	136.1
October	238.9	137.7
November	241.4	148.6
December	242.8	147.8
2020
January	240.8	144.9
February	237.3	148.5
March	244.4	158.8
April	246.3	210.3
May	262.9	228.0
June	284.7	204.2
July	265.7	149.7
August	245.4	152.1
September	237.3	154.2
October	241.4	150.3
November	240.3	159.0
December	239.3	141.0
2021
January	243.0	148.8
February	237.9	166.3
March	239.2	164.0
April	247.0	191.8
May	251.6	209.9
June	253.1	213.3
July	259.3	191.5
August	258.3	227.2
September	268.1	217.9
October	275.2	186.7
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 17211. Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 17212.

Data table for Chart 17



Data table for chart 17
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 17 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	101.4	101.4
March	101.3	101.4
April	99.9	102.9
May	100.6	102.9
June	100.2	99.8
July	99.7	99.8
August	99.8	99.8
September	98.5	99.8
October	98.4	98.7
November	97.3	98.7
December	98.1	98.7
2001
January	97.2	97.0
February	97.6	95.2
March	98.3	95.2
April	97.3	95.2
May	97.9	95.2
June	97.7	95.2
July	94.8	95.2
August	96.4	95.2
September	96.1	95.2
October	94.6	95.2
November	95.0	95.2
December	95.4	95.2
2002
January	95.1	95.1
February	93.4	95.1
March	93.0	93.4
April	91.7	93.4
May	93.4	93.4
June	91.9	93.4
July	90.7	93.4
August	91.7	93.4
September	90.0	93.4
October	90.0	93.4
November	88.7	93.4
December	91.3	93.4
2003
January	88.6	93.4
February	91.5	93.4
March	91.4	97.0
April	92.6	97.0
May	92.9	97.0
June	92.0	97.0
July	93.4	97.0
August	93.1	97.0
September	93.3	97.0
October	93.9	97.0
November	94.2	97.0
December	94.3	97.0
2004
January	93.4	97.0
February	93.0	97.0
March	93.1	97.0
April	92.2	97.0
May	94.7	97.0
June	94.2	97.0
July	94.8	97.0
August	94.5	97.0
September	93.7	97.0
October	94.3	97.0
November	94.6	97.0
December	94.2	97.0
2005
January	94.2	97.0
February	94.3	98.8
March	95.3	100.9
April	95.6	100.9
May	93.4	100.9
June	98.3	102.9
July	99.4	102.9
August	99.7	102.9
September	100.6	102.9
October	100.4	102.9
November	100.2	102.9
December	101.9	102.9
2006
January	100.7	102.9
February	100.9	102.9
March	100.6	102.9
April	102.5	102.9
May	101.7	102.9
June	103.0	102.9
July	101.4	102.9
August	103.4	102.9
September	102.9	102.9
October	102.6	104.5
November	101.4	104.5
December	101.0	104.5
2007
January	100.3	104.5
February	103.0	104.5
March	101.4	104.5
April	102.4	104.5
May	101.7	104.5
June	103.5	104.5
July	103.1	104.5
August	102.6	104.5
September	101.9	104.5
October	101.1	104.5
November	100.0	104.5
December	101.4	104.5
2008
January	102.0	104.5
February	100.7	104.5
March	99.9	104.5
April	101.0	104.5
May	100.2	104.5
June	103.1	104.5
July	103.5	104.5
August	105.2	104.5
September	107.3	104.5
October	106.5	104.5
November	105.9	104.5
December	106.1	104.5
2009
January	104.4	104.5
February	106.1	104.5
March	105.1	104.5
April	107.4	104.5
May	108.0	104.5
June	109.8	104.5
July	110.5	104.5
August	109.7	104.5
September	107.9	104.5
October	109.0	104.5
November	109.4	104.5
December	111.1	104.5
2010
January	110.8	104.5
February	111.4	104.5
March	111.7	104.5
April	108.9	104.5
May	110.2	106.0
June	111.4	106.0
July	110.6	106.0
August	112.8	106.2
September	112.9	106.2
October	114.4	111.3
November	118.0	111.3
December	117.6	111.3
2011
January	116.7	111.3
February	118.8	113.1
March	122.8	116.6
April	123.6	121.9
May	125.4	121.9
June	127.4	121.9
July	129.4	129.1
August	131.4	129.1
September	132.5	127.1
October	131.2	127.1
November	132.2	127.1
December	129.7	127.1
2012
January	132.3	127.1
February	132.8	127.1
March	132.1	127.1
April	133.4	127.1
May	131.1	119.7
June	133.5	119.7
July	134.3	119.7
August	132.0	119.7
September	133.9	120.4
October	131.4	116.6
November	132.8	116.6
December	131.7	116.6
2013
January	132.4	116.6
February	133.1	116.6
March	134.4	108.6
April	131.3	103.6
May	132.7	103.6
June	131.2	103.6
July	130.7	103.6
August	129.6	101.9
September	131.1	101.9
October	131.5	101.9
November	129.5	101.9
December	125.8	101.9
2014
January	127.6	101.9
February	126.5	99.0
March	124.6	99.0
April	124.0	99.0
May	121.4	99.0
June	122.6	99.0
July	121.9	97.5
August	125.7	97.5
September	125.8	97.5
October	125.4	97.5
November	123.6	97.5
December	125.8	97.5
2015
January	124.9	101.7
February	126.4	104.8
March	126.0	104.8
April	128.9	104.8
May	128.3	104.8
June	128.2	104.8
July	127.4	104.8
August	129.9	105.9
September	128.8	105.9
October	130.0	108.6
November	128.2	108.6
December	127.7	108.6
2016
January	128.2	107.4
February	128.1	107.4
March	129.8	107.4
April	127.1	107.4
May	126.6	107.4
June	126.4	107.4
July	126.2	108.7
August	126.6	109.4
September	125.0	110.4
October	125.0	110.4
November	124.3	110.4
December	121.2	110.4
2017
January	123.0	110.1
February	123.2	110.1
March	126.1	110.1
April	126.7	110.1
May	125.0	110.1
June	126.6	107.2
July	126.9	108.6
August	125.7	108.6
September	125.0	108.6
October	124.8	107.3
November	124.3	107.3
December	123.1	107.3
2018
January	124.8	106.4
February	124.9	106.4
March	123.8	106.4
April	124.8	106.4
May	120.9	106.4
June	123.3	106.4
July	123.3	105.3
August	122.2	105.3
September	123.8	105.3
October	121.5	105.3
November	120.4	105.3
December	121.0	105.3
2019
January	122.0	105.5
February	128.9	105.6
March	128.0	105.6
April	125.6	105.6
May	124.4	105.6
June	124.1	105.6
July	124.4	105.1
August	124.2	105.1
September	121.9	105.1
October	121.5	105.1
November	121.4	105.1
December	121.7	105.1
2020
January	122.4	104.8
February	124.7	104.8
March	123.1	104.8
April	123.4	104.8
May	122.1	104.8
June	122.8	104.8
July	122.9	105.7
August	121.8	105.7
September	122.8	105.7
October	122.9	105.7
November	122.7	105.7
December	123.3	105.7
2021
January	123.3	106.0
February	122.8	106.0
March	120.3	106.0
April	119.5	106.0
May	125.0	106.0
June	124.5	106.0
July	122.3	106.0
August	122.7	106.0
September	123.3	106.0
October	127.4	106.0
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 191111.

Data table for Chart 18



Data table for chart 18
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 18 CPI and IPPI, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	CPI	IPPI
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0
February	100.9	101.8
March	102.3	103.4
April	102.2	103.4
May	101.3	103.4
June	101.7	104.1
July	101.8	104.4
August	101.8	104.4
September	102.7	105.4
October	102.1	104.7
November	103.7	105.5
December	103.1	105.6
2001
January	103.7	106.4
February	104.4	106.4
March	104.7	106.3
April	104.9	106.3
May	105.4	106.7
June	105.2	106.7
July	107.0	106.7
August	105.9	106.7
September	105.3	106.7
October	106.4	107.9
November	108.0	107.9
December	107.3	108.4
2002
January	107.8	107.7
February	108.4	109.3
March	107.2	110.5
April	108.2	111.5
May	108.2	111.5
June	108.7	111.5
July	107.6	111.5
August	108.5	111.5
September	109.1	112.5
October	108.6	114.8
November	110.1	114.9
December	109.2	114.9
2003
January	110.5	114.9
February	110.6	114.9
March	110.8	115.5
April	111.0	116.3
May	112.0	118.1
June	112.0	118.1
July	112.1	118.1
August	112.6	119.0
September	112.5	120.4
October	112.7	120.4
November	113.3	120.6
December	113.0	119.7
2004
January	113.4	121.1
February	115.5	121.6
March	115.4	122.3
April	115.6	122.3
May	116.1	123.5
June	116.1	123.5
July	116.5	123.5
August	116.7	124.0
September	116.3	124.4
October	117.4	123.0
November	117.8	123.0
December	116.2	123.0
2005
January	117.2	123.0
February	117.2	123.0
March	117.6	123.8
April	118.7	123.9
May	118.2	123.9
June	118.5	123.9
July	118.1	123.9
August	119.2	124.7
September	120.0	124.7
October	117.8	124.7
November	119.5	124.7
December	116.5	124.7
2006
January	119.1	125.5
February	119.1	125.5
March	119.1	125.5
April	120.0	125.6
May	119.3	125.7
June	119.0	126.2
July	118.8	126.0
August	119.2	126.0
September	119.2	126.1
October	118.2	126.2
November	118.4	126.2
December	116.3	126.2
2007
January	120.7	127.9
February	120.5	127.7
March	121.0	128.6
April	121.9	129.1
May	121.4	129.2
June	120.6	129.1
July	121.6	129.8
August	121.3	130.8
September	123.4	130.8
October	122.3	130.8
November	123.0	130.8
December	121.6	130.8
2008
January	123.0	130.8
February	124.4	130.8
March	123.1	131.9
April	122.5	132.1
May	123.6	132.1
June	123.4	132.1
July	122.2	132.1
August	120.6	132.1
September	122.2	132.1
October	121.7	132.8
November	123.5	134.9
December	123.5	134.8
2009
January	125.5	135.1
February	125.1	135.1
March	125.4	136.4
April	125.2	136.9
May	126.4	136.9
June	126.5	136.9
July	125.2	136.9
August	124.8	136.9
September	124.9	137.7
October	125.7	140.2
November	125.2	140.2
December	124.9	140.2
2010
January	123.4	140.2
February	123.6	140.8
March	123.9	140.8
April	124.5	140.9
May	125.2	141.4
June	125.3	141.4
July	124.4	141.4
August	124.1	141.4
September	124.2	142.1
October	124.6	143.0
November	124.3	143.0
December	124.2	143.0
2011
January	125.1	143.0
February	124.7	143.0
March	121.9	143.4
April	121.9	143.2
May	122.6	143.3
June	122.6	143.3
July	124.0	143.8
August	123.3	145.6
September	122.9	145.6
October	122.0	145.6
November	122.0	146.2
December	121.6	146.2
2012
January	122.1	146.2
February	123.5	146.2
March	125.5	146.2
April	126.0	146.7
May	124.7	147.4
June	124.4	147.4
July	124.8	147.4
August	124.7	147.4
September	124.5	147.4
October	124.9	147.4
November	125.6	147.4
December	124.9	147.4
2013
January	125.7	147.4
February	126.0	148.3
March	126.0	148.3
April	126.4	148.5
May	128.9	148.3
June	128.0	148.4
July	125.3	148.4
August	124.9	148.3
September	126.6	146.2
October	127.0	149.1
November	126.5	149.3
December	127.5	149.1
2014
January	125.7	149.3
February	127.2	149.1
March	127.9	149.7
April	125.8	149.9
May	126.1	150.3
June	125.4	150.3
July	125.7	150.4
August	128.4	151.1
September	128.7	150.8
October	131.3	151.5
November	132.1	151.5
December	131.2	151.5
2015
January	131.8	151.5
February	132.0	151.5
March	133.2	151.5
April	134.1	152.1
May	135.4	152.1
June	135.1	152.1
July	135.5	152.4
August	135.0	152.5
September	134.6	152.7
October	135.0	152.7
November	135.5	152.7
December	134.7	152.5
2016
January	135.4	153.0
February	136.0	153.0
March	136.9	153.9
April	136.9	154.1
May	137.7	153.9
June	135.4	154.0
July	135.6	154.0
August	135.8	154.0
September	137.0	154.2
October	136.9	153.9
November	137.6	154.2
December	137.3	154.1
2017
January	138.4	154.2
February	138.4	154.8
March	139.9	155.5
April	139.7	155.5
May	140.7	155.4
June	139.7	155.6
July	140.1	155.4
August	140.2	155.6
September	141.6	155.4
October	141.0	155.6
November	140.7	155.3
December	140.9	155.4
2018
January	141.3	155.6
February	141.5	155.4
March	142.7	156.3
April	143.2	156.1
May	142.6	156.1
June	142.4	156.5
July	142.7	156.1
August	142.6	156.1
September	143.3	158.1
October	143.1	158.1
November	144.0	158.1
December	143.4	158.1
2019
January	144.1	157.9
February	144.5	157.9
March	145.1	158.2
April	145.4	159.9
May	145.8	159.9
June	144.9	160.0
July	143.5	159.9
August	143.7	159.7
September	143.1	159.5
October	145.0	160.0
November	144.8	158.8
December	144.8	158.6
2020
January	145.1	159.1
February	145.3	158.4
March	144.4	160.1
April	145.0	159.8
May	144.8	159.8
June	144.8	159.1
July	145.2	159.6
August	144.7	158.1
September	145.6	158.8
October	147.0	155.1
November	146.4	158.3
December	145.2	155.1
2021
January	145.9	158.3
February	148.0	159.9
March	149.0	158.6
April	149.1	160.4
May	148.8	160.4
June	148.0	160.4
July	148.3	158.8
August	149.9	158.8
September	149.2	158.6
October	150.1	158.6
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-13  Consumer Price Index by product group, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 21111.

The results are interesting economically and discouraging for forecasting purposes. They are interesting economically, as they are consistent with a view that intermediation margins between the factory gate and the retail outlet have a strong influence on movements of consumer prices, to the point of lastingly negate cost and price impulses from the producer side. The same lack of visible “pass through” from the most detailed commodity level, however, is discouraging for forecasting purposes. As a group, the lowest aggregates of the IPPI do not show convincing predictive power on corresponding CPI aggregates. In consequence, expectations for a solid predictive link on higher aggregates, where compositional factors figure in more strongly, are low. Overall, however, the link between producer and consumer prices at the lowest level of aggregation is weak, at best, and places serious doubts on using lagged producer prices to predict consumer prices.

Impact of the pandemic and lumber prices (February 2020 – October 2021)

The pandemic has caused economic dislocations that have resulted in a marked increase in the IPPI. Strong increases in the price of lumber in particular were widely reported in the media and have caught the public eye. The events taken together with highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policy have raised questions if the response of the CPI will remain mute in the face of rising price pressures lower down the production chain. A reminder is useful at this stage that inflation is a broad-based phenomenon where prices rise in unison for a majority of items, and not just that a few items go up in price.

Data table for Chart 19



Data table for chart 19
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 19 Lumber, Metal products and construction materials and Cement and glass, calculated using Index Jan 2000=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Lumber	Metal products and construction materials	Cement and glass
	Index Jan 2000=100
2000
January	100.0	100.0	100.0
February	100.0	100.3	100.6
March	99.1	100.5	100.6
April	95.2	100.6	100.7
May	88.7	100.8	100.6
June	86.4	100.3	100.7
July	81.7	100.3	100.7
August	78.1	100.0	100.9
September	78.3	100.0	101.1
October	77.8	100.2	101.4
November	80.2	100.3	101.6
December	77.7	100.0	101.6
2001
January	73.9	99.8	102.3
February	76.5	100.3	102.6
March	79.3	100.3	102.8
April	85.0	100.3	103.1
May	100.9	100.6	103.1
June	97.6	100.5	103.1
July	91.6	100.6	103.3
August	98.1	100.5	103.4
September	94.2	100.8	103.1
October	81.7	100.8	103.0
November	83.8	100.5	103.1
December	83.3	100.3	103.1
2002
January	86.4	100.9	103.7
February	92.2	100.9	103.6
March	99.2	100.8	103.6
April	96.9	101.1	104.3
May	92.8	101.4	104.3
June	84.0	101.5	104.3
July	85.5	102.2	104.3
August	82.9	102.8	104.6
September	80.5	103.1	104.6
October	81.0	103.1	104.4
November	79.5	103.1	104.7
December	79.8	102.9	104.6
2003
January	79.2	102.9	104.7
February	82.1	103.3	105.3
March	76.7	103.4	104.8
April	74.5	103.4	105.3
May	70.1	102.6	105.4
June	71.7	102.5	105.3
July	75.7	102.8	104.4
August	78.4	102.8	104.4
September	87.0	103.1	104.4
October	77.9	102.8	104.3
November	75.4	102.8	104.3
December	76.0	103.3	104.3
2004
January	80.1	104.2	105.3
February	87.0	105.6	105.3
March	88.4	107.9	105.5
April	93.3	109.9	106.0
May	101.5	111.3	106.0
June	98.9	112.2	106.1
July	98.3	113.2	106.4
August	104.2	114.6	106.7
September	101.1	115.3	107.3
October	86.6	115.5	107.1
November	78.4	115.0	107.4
December	83.4	115.0	107.4
2005
January	84.9	115.9	108.7
February	89.8	116.9	109.2
March	89.7	116.7	109.2
April	86.7	116.9	109.0
May	82.2	116.4	109.1
June	82.8	115.9	109.2
July	81.0	115.5	109.2
August	77.2	115.2	109.2
September	78.5	115.3	109.2
October	77.3	115.5	109.2
November	77.4	115.6	109.7
December	78.7	115.9	109.8
2006
January	81.6	116.1	112.1
February	80.2	116.3	112.2
March	79.5	116.4	112.8
April	78.1	116.7	113.7
May	76.5	117.0	113.7
June	74.1	117.6	113.7
July	75.1	117.6	113.7
August	72.4	117.8	113.9
September	73.2	117.6	113.7
October	71.1	117.5	113.7
November	70.1	117.2	113.7
December	71.6	117.0	113.7
2007
January	75.8	117.5	115.4
February	73.8	118.0	115.5
March	72.7	118.6	115.9
April	71.9	119.2	116.4
May	69.3	118.7	116.4
June	71.0	118.6	116.4
July	70.2	118.3	116.2
August	70.1	118.3	116.4
September	67.4	118.0	116.5
October	64.5	117.5	115.9
November	63.8	117.2	116.2
December	64.9	117.8	116.1
2008
January	63.8	118.9	117.9
February	62.3	119.8	117.5
March	62.3	120.4	117.1
April	63.0	122.6	118.3
May	63.3	123.8	118.1
June	65.0	126.5	118.2
July	65.8	128.5	118.2
August	69.1	130.3	118.3
September	68.5	130.3	118.6
October	69.9	131.0	119.6
November	69.7	130.0	119.5
December	69.1	129.3	119.5
2009
January	66.6	129.6	121.1
February	67.8	129.3	121.5
March	67.8	128.3	121.6
April	66.6	126.6	121.2
May	63.4	125.9	121.8
June	65.2	124.6	121.5
July	66.7	124.6	121.8
August	66.6	124.1	122.0
September	65.5	123.7	121.9
October	64.2	122.4	121.6
November	64.9	122.4	121.8
December	66.1	122.4	121.3
2010
January	66.7	122.8	122.5
February	73.0	122.8	122.8
March	72.1	122.8	122.8
April	74.5	124.3	122.5
May	76.1	125.2	122.6
June	68.3	125.9	122.8
July	66.9	124.1	122.6
August	67.3	124.1	122.8
September	67.8	124.8	122.6
October	68.6	124.0	122.5
November	70.0	124.1	122.9
December	70.4	124.3	122.8
2011
January	71.7	125.2	123.3
February	70.2	126.0	122.9
March	69.9	127.1	123.2
April	67.5	127.1	123.3
May	63.9	126.8	123.3
June	65.1	126.2	123.3
July	66.3	126.8	124.3
August	66.6	126.8	124.2
September	68.3	126.3	124.3
October	67.9	127.4	124.6
November	66.9	126.5	124.6
December	67.8	126.6	124.6
2012
January	68.8	126.8	125.2
February	68.8	126.8	125.3
March	71.2	126.8	125.3
April	71.7	127.1	125.3
May	75.8	126.9	125.5
June	77.4	126.2	125.3
July	76.6	124.8	125.3
August	77.6	124.5	125.7
September	74.9	124.0	125.6
October	74.8	124.0	125.6
November	78.1	123.8	125.7
December	81.4	124.1	125.7
2013
January	87.3	123.5	126.5
February	89.2	123.5	127.3
March	92.8	123.8	127.2
April	93.0	124.0	127.7
May	86.0	124.3	127.9
June	82.2	124.9	128.3
July	82.3	125.1	128.3
August	84.8	124.8	128.7
September	86.8	124.8	128.6
October	89.2	124.8	129.3
November	92.4	125.2	130.4
December	91.1	125.5	129.0
2014
January	93.6	126.5	130.0
February	94.4	126.5	130.6
March	94.3	127.4	130.0
April	92.1	127.2	130.2
May	92.6	126.9	129.9
June	90.8	126.9	131.0
July	91.7	127.6	131.4
August	94.3	127.7	131.6
September	94.9	128.2	131.6
October	95.5	128.6	132.4
November	94.9	129.3	132.4
December	95.8	129.3	131.6
2015
January	98.7	130.8	131.0
February	99.3	132.2	133.9
March	96.0	132.4	132.0
April	91.0	132.0	132.1
May	87.9	132.0	132.4
June	92.4	132.4	132.0
July	97.0	132.8	133.4
August	97.8	133.1	133.0
September	94.4	133.4	133.6
October	93.0	133.3	134.1
November	95.5	133.4	134.0
December	96.9	134.1	133.4
2016
January	98.9	135.8	134.4
February	95.9	135.4	136.0
March	96.5	134.1	135.1
April	97.1	133.3	133.3
May	99.2	133.7	132.9
June	100.3	134.1	134.0
July	101.7	136.7	132.7
August	102.2	138.1	132.1
September	101.2	138.7	134.1
October	100.6	137.5	134.7
November	99.6	138.1	135.3
December	99.4	138.1	134.7
2017
January	100.3	138.1	135.7
February	105.6	138.7	135.7
March	109.0	139.9	134.9
April	113.9	140.1	135.3
May	112.5	141.2	136.6
June	109.8	141.5	136.0
July	111.6	142.0	136.6
August	115.1	141.3	136.8
September	115.5	140.6	137.1
October	123.4	142.1	137.3
November	127.4	142.6	138.1
December	124.4	142.6	138.4
2018
January	122.4	143.3	139.0
February	129.7	144.9	139.8
March	134.1	145.7	139.7
April	132.8	146.6	141.0
May	144.0	149.7	141.3
June	147.5	151.1	140.3
July	141.5	152.9	141.1
August	124.5	153.1	141.5
September	120.5	154.6	141.5
October	104.0	151.9	141.7
November	102.3	152.6	141.1
December	103.7	153.9	140.4
2019
January	104.4	155.3	141.4
February	110.7	154.3	141.5
March	110.7	154.8	142.5
April	105.8	155.3	143.2
May	102.4	155.3	142.8
June	103.6	156.2	142.5
July	106.6	154.5	142.7
August	104.3	154.2	141.7
September	106.5	154.5	142.0
October	106.7	154.8	143.2
November	109.5	152.3	142.8
December	109.4	153.6	143.0
2020
January	110.0	154.8	142.2
February	118.6	153.7	142.5
March	120.2	154.6	143.2
April	108.8	155.4	142.8
May	110.7	154.3	141.1
June	116.9	154.0	140.8
July	143.2	153.7	139.1
August	176.7	153.7	138.7
September	211.8	153.6	139.8
October	194.4	154.6	140.3
November	165.2	154.3	140.8
December	198.2	155.9	140.3
2021
January	225.3	159.1	141.5
February	240.4	166.3	142.0
March	259.5	167.5	142.0
April	289.3	173.1	143.5
May	360.8	179.1	145.4
June	315.7	180.3	146.8
July	211.9	189.6	147.5
August	168.6	192.3	147.7
September	167.5	197.1	148.4
October	187.5	206.3	148.1
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0266-01  Industrial product price index, by product, monthly, NAPCS 241, P63, P81

The cost of construction materials in the course of the pandemic increased at rates that reflected various bottlenecks and ranged from barely noticeable such as cement, to moderate such as metal products, to dramatic in the case of lumber. The Building Construction Cost Index (BCPI) measures the cost of building single-detached homes as well as townhouses.^Note Costs are up by approx. 30% since the start of the pandemic, on the most recent measures. The increase in the price of lumber raised construction costs noticeably, according to industry reports. The CBC quoted the Canadian Home Builder’s Association, which said that lumber raised construction cost of a typical townhouse by $10,000 and by $30,000 for a house that is 230 m² in size.^Note

^Note The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) measures the prices builders receive for selling new homes to consumers, and is thereby a broader measure of home price inflation.^Note The structure component of the NHPI has increased approx. by 19% since the start of the pandemic.

Data table for Chart 20



Data table for chart 20
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 20 NHPU House, BCPI Single-detached house and Homeowners' replacement cost, calculated using Index 2017-Q1=100 units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	NHPI House	BCPI Single-detached house	Homeowners' replacement cost
	Index 2017-Q1=100
2017
Q1	100.0	100.0	100.0
Q2	101.5	101.5	101.8
Q3	101.9	104.4	102.6
Q4	102.0	106.0	103.1
2018
Q1	101.5	107.8	102.9
Q2	101.9	110.1	103.1
Q3	101.7	111.0	103.1
Q4	101.6	111.3	103.2
2019
Q1	101.4	111.8	103.1
Q2	101.0	112.4	102.8
Q3	101.5	113.1	103.0
Q4	101.4	113.5	103.3
2020
Q1	102.3	114.2	104.0
Q2	102.7	114.7	104.4
Q3	106.0	118.0	106.7
Q4	108.0	122.6	109.3
2021
Q1	112.9	130.9	113.6
Q2	118.8	142.2	118.8
Q3	121.4	148.5	121.2
Source: Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0205-01  New housing price index, monthly; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0135-01  Building construction price indexes, by type of building; Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0004-04  Consumer Price Index, monthly, percentage change, not seasonally adjusted.

The NHPI is a component of the CPI and the driving factor that measures the replacement cost of housing (depreciation), which is an integral part of the home ownership “user cost concept” used in the CPI.^Note The CPI basket weight of the replacement cost component is 5.6%, and the overall effect of high construction costs on the CPI, muted.^Note

Conclusion

The issue regarding the predictive power of the IPPI on the CPI periodically comes up at Statistics Canada. This is the third study that looked at the topic in detail. Each study took a different approach and angle. Except for energy (gasoline) and some food groupings, none found an economically meaningful persistent predictive link. The conclusions of this paper are fundamentally the same as those of the two previous studies, and the broader literature. As a group, the various national and international studies have not found discernable stable and consistent relationships between producer price aggregates and consumer price aggregates that can be used for prediction.

This is unsurprising. Given the lack of evidence of a predictive link at the most disaggregated level for most basic commodities, it is even likely that to the extent that relationships are found in some time periods and not others, or with reverse causalities, spurious statistic random relationships predominate. At best, predictive power is muted and moderate. The substantial conclusion is the following. If there were strong IPPI increases to come, there is no evidence in the data that the CPI will increase to an extent where it moves outside the Bank of Canada target range. In general, there is no consistent relationship between the IPPI and CPI for the time period under examination.