Prices Analytical Series
Canadian Consumers Prepare for COVID-19

The features of the Canadian consumer environment are shifting rapidly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, shaped by a variety of interconnected and evolving factors. Restrictions on the activities of citizens and businesses and increased pressure on adapting supply chains are influencing the what, where, when and how of Canadian consumption, on an ongoing basis.

As news media provides daily coverage of shortages of non-durable goods across the country, Statistics Canada can help to shed light on the impact of COVID-19 on consumer purchasing patterns.

This study aims to analyze trends in consumer demand and sales, as Canadians stock up on grocery items and practice social distancing for an indefinite period. The information is based on transaction data for grocery products.^Note

Sales increase by 38%

On March 11^th, 2020 the federal government announced its COVID-19 response fund followed by a coordinated economic relief package. By the end of that same week, grocery sales had increased 38% compared to their average sales in 2019 (Chart 1). This represents 16% higher revenues than those reported in the week leading up to the December holiday, the busiest shopping week of the year. Compared to the same week in the previous year (52-week % change), sales increased by 46%.

Data table for Chart 1



Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 Index 2019=100
(appearing as column headers).

	% change relative to average 2019
2019
January
Week 1	-5
Week 2	-5
Week 3	-2
Week 4	-7
February
Week 1	-2
Week 2	-6
Week 3	-3
Week 4	-4
March
Week 1	-3
Week 2	-5
Week 3	-6
Week 4	-4
Week 5	-4
April
Week 1	-2
Week 2	-2
Week 3	10
Week 4	-12
May
Week 1	0
Week 2	3
Week 3	5
Week 4	0
June
Week 1	4
Week 2	3
Week 3	5
Week 4	3
Week 5	8
July
Week 1	3
Week 2	1
Week 3	3
Week 4	1
August
Week 1	6
Week 2	-2
Week 3	-1
Week 4	-1
Week 5	3
September
Week 1	0
Week 2	-3
Week 3	-3
Week 4	0
October
Week 1	1
Week 2	8
Week 3	-8
Week 4	-4
November
Week 1	-1
Week 2	-2
Week 3	-4
Week 4	0
Week 5	2
December
Week 1	4
Week 2	6
Week 3	19
Week 4	3
2020
January
Week 1	-2
Week 2	-1
Week 3	-6
Week 4	-3
February
Week 1Data table Note 1	-1
Week 2	-5
Week 3	0
Week 4Data table Note 2	-4
Week 5	1
March
Week 1Data table Note 3	3
Week 2Data table Note 4	38
Note 1 January 26 Government advisory against travel to areas of China Return to note 1 referrer Note 2 February 20 Evacuation from Wuhan, China Return to note 2 referrer Note 3 March 4 Interest rate cut to 1.25% Return to note 3 referrer Note 4 March 11 $1 billion response fund announced WHO announces COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic Return to note 4 referrer Note: Data are experimental and are subject to revision. Source: Consumer Prices program, special tabulation.

Personal care and household cleaning products sales surge

Data table for Chart 2



Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2. The information is grouped by Personal care and household cleaning products (appearing as row headers), % change relative to average 2019 (appearing as column headers).

Personal care and household cleaning productsData table Note 1	% change relative to average 2019
Hand sanitizers	639
Masks and gloves	377
Facial tissues	253
Bathroom tissue	241
Personal wipes	231
Cold remedies	226
Paper towels	187
Soap	166
Household cleaners	164
Shampoo & conditioners	74
Note 1 Items included in this study are derived from transaction data and are not necessarily priced as part of the Consumer Price Index. Return to note 1 referrer Note: Data are experimental and are subject to revision. Source: Consumer Prices program, special tabulation.

Hand sanitizer, and mask and glove sales provided an early indication of shifting consumer behaviour, increasing 477% and 122% respectively as early as the last week of January, and registering 639% and 377% increases respectively in the week ending March 14^th compared to the 2019 average (Chart 2).

In contrast, bathroom tissue sales (Chart 3), which received extensive media coverage,^Note only began to rise significantly in the first week of March shortly after Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu advised Canadians to be prepared with a week’s worth of supplies.^Note  

Data table for Chart 3



Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3 % change relative to average 2019
(appearing as column headers).

	% change relative to average 2019
2019
January
Week 1	-6
Week 2	0
Week 3	-1
Week 4	34
February
Week 1	17
Week 2	-8
Week 3	-11
Week 4	-9
March
Week 1	2
Week 2	-6
Week 3	-12
Week 4	19
Week 5	23
April
Week 1	-7
Week 2	-13
Week 3	-8
Week 4	-19
May
Week 1	0
Week 2	21
Week 3	19
Week 4	-14
June
Week 1	-3
Week 2	0
Week 3	-2
Week 4	-2
Week 5	0
July
Week 1	2
Week 2	22
Week 3	16
Week 4	-12
August
Week 1	-5
Week 2	-6
Week 3	-7
Week 4	-8
Week 5	19
September
Week 1	27
Week 2	15
Week 3	-10
Week 4	-10
October
Week 1	-5
Week 2	-10
Week 3	6
Week 4	12
November
Week 1	-9
Week 2	-7
Week 3	-17
Week 4	-9
Week 5	0
December
Week 1	-12
Week 2	3
Week 3	14
Week 4	-19
2020
January
Week 1	-5
Week 2	2
Week 3	10
Week 4	32
February
Week 1	5
Week 2	-12
Week 3	-15
Week 4	-11
Week 5	12
March
Week 1	89
Week 2	241
Note: Data are experimental and are subject to revision. Source: Consumer Prices program, special tabulation.

Bathroom tissue receipts reached a peak increase of 241% relative to the 2019 average in the week ending March 14^th despite reassurances from government, retail industry experts and Canada’s largest producer of bathroom tissue^Note that supply is plentiful.

Dry goods and shelf-stable foods surpass fresh and frozen foods

Over the past several weeks Canadians have turned to foods they can store, with retailers’ revenues for rice increasing more than 239% compared to the 2019 average in the week ending March 14^th.

Data table for Chart 4



Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4 % change relative to average 2019 (appearing as column headers).

	% change relative to average 2019
Rice	239
Pasta	205
Canned vegetables	180
Flour	179
Canned fish, meat and seafood	169
Canned soup	158
Pasta sauce	157
Canned fruit	111
Infant formula	103
Cereal	70
Coffee	52
Note: Data are experimental and are subject to revision. Source: Consumer Prices program, special tabulation.

Pasta, canned vegetables and flour also featured prominently in Canadian shopping carts alongside canned fish, meat, seafood, soup and pasta sauce (Chart 4). While Canadian staples such as eggs, butter and bread reported increased revenues in the second week of March alongside fresh foods including potatoes and meat, the sales for these perishables increased by a substantially smaller magnitude, suggesting a consumer focus on stockpiling against uncertain conditions (Chart 5).

Data table for Chart 5



Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 % change relative to average 2019 (appearing as column headers).

	% change relative to average 2019
Potatoes	51
Fresh pork	49
Fresh chicken	47
Fresh beef	36
Fresh vegetables	31
Fresh fish	20
Fresh fruit	17
Frozen vegetables	129
Frozen fruit	117
Frozen potatoes	65
Frozen fish	55
Eggs	63
Butter and margarine	46
Bread	40
Cheese	34
Milk	29
Note: Data are experimental and are subject to revision. Source: Consumer Prices program, special tabulation.

A work in progress

Over the next few weeks this study will be updated to incorporate more products of interest to the Canadian population.

Although concern has been raised about the possibility of price-gouging with new legislation being passed in Ontario on March 28^th,^Note retailers have made promises to Canadian consumers that they will not engage in predatory practices.^Note Statistics Canada’s ongoing work informing Canadians through data products such as this index and the Consumer Price Index will help give context to uncertain economic times, and enable data users to make informed decisions.

Appendix