Twelve-month percentage change in the CPI: +2.3%

Twelve-month percentage change in the CPI excluding energy: +2.8%

In September 2002, consumers paid 2.3% more than in September 2001 for the goods and services included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket. This increase followed a 2.6% rise in August 2002 from August 2001. The deceleration in the CPI's rate of increase to 2.3% in September from 2.6% in August is explained by the 1.8% fall in energy prices from September 2001 to September 2002, whereas they had remained stable between August 2001 and August 2002.

The twelve-month change in the CPI excluding energy reached 2.8% in September. This is comparable to the increases observed in August (+2.9%) and July (+2.8%).

Cigarette prices, which rose 39.7% over September 2001, once again exerted the strongest upward pressure on the All-items CPI. This rise was essentially due to the increases in provincial and federal taxes introduced in the fall of 2001 and the spring of 2002.

Automotive vehicle insurance premiums increased by 15.7%, while electricity prices rose 12.8% over their September 2001 level. This latter rise was due mainly to sharp price increases in Ontario.

Homeowners' replacement cost, the prices of restaurant meals and rent also added to the upward pressure on the All-items CPI.

The marked decrease in natural gas prices (-25.8%) and the drop in mortgage interest cost (-3.3%) were the strongest moderating effects on the increase in the All-items CPI. Decreases in traveller accommodation and gasoline prices also helped slow the rise in the CPI.

Monthly percentage change in the CPI: 0.0%

The CPI remained unchanged between August and September 2002, following a rise of 0.4% in August. Higher women's clothing prices, tuition fees and natural gas tariffs exerted upward pressure on the All-items CPI, while lower prices for fresh vegetables, traveller accommodation and air transportation exerted downward pressure.

The women's clothing index rose by 4.1%, due largely to higher prices for the new fall line items.

Students had to pay 4.8% more this year in tuition fees, a slight acceleration over the increases of the last two years. Nonetheless, this increase remained among the lowest observed over the past fifteen years. It should be noted, however, that tuition fees doubled over the last ten years. In 2002, average tuition fee increases varied from 0.2% for Quebec residents to 21.1% for British Columbia's. Only the tuition fees for Newfoundland residents (-6.1%) fell. It should be noted that the tuition fee index for a given province takes into account the fact that some of that province's residents attend educational institutions in other provinces.

The natural gas index rose by 5.2% in September as a result of price increases in Alberta. This rise is attributable to an increase in natural gas prices, as well as to the partial return to billing for ATCO Gas' Northern subscribers which includes Edmonton, as the average consumer used up the credit allocated in March 2002.

In September, fresh vegetable prices fell by 12.4%. Decreases were attributed mainly to the ongoing supply of local products.

With the end of the summer tourist season, traveller accommodation prices fell on average by 5.4%. The residents of every province, except Newfoundland (+4.4%), experienced a drop in prices. The traveller accommodation index, like the one for tuition fees, takes into account the fact that the residents of a given province travel to other provinces.

The cost of air transportation fell by 3.9% in September 2002, after rising by 2.2% in August. This drop was largely attributable to the move from high season prices to intermediate season prices on transatlantic and transpacific routes.

The seasonally adjusted CPI advanced by 0.1% between August 2002 and September 2002

After adjusting for seasonal variations, the All-items CPI rose by 0.1% between August 2002 and September 2002. The factors contributing to this rise were increases in the indexes for clothing and footwear (+0.4%), shelter (+0.3%), health and personal care (+0.3%), recreation, education and reading (+0.3%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (+0.3%) and food (+0.1%). These increases were partly offset by a drop in the seasonally adjusted indexes for household operations and furnishings (-0.4%) and transportation (-0.3%).

Special aggregates

Energy

The energy index fell by 1.8% in September 2002 from September 2001, while it had remained stable between August 2001 and August 2002. Natural gas prices (-25.8%) had the strongest downward effect on the energy index. Gasoline (-1.2%) and fuel oil (-3.4%) prices also contributed to the decline, whereas electricity prices were on the rise (+12.8%) mainly because of the Ontario market. Since May 2002, electricity is sold on an open market in this province and as a result, prices are more sensitive to changes in demand as was observed this summer.

The energy index rose by 0.9% between August and September 2002, a more moderate increase than the 3.4% rise recorded in the previous month. A 5.2% increase in natural gas prices was the determining factor underlying September's advance, followed by the increase in fuel oil prices (+3.8%). A slight increase in gasoline prices (+0.2%) also contributed to this increase, while the 0.2% drop in electricity prices had somewhat of a neutralizing effect.

Goods and services

Prices in the goods sector rose by 1.7% from September 2001 to September 2002, slowing down from a 2.2% increase in August. The non-durable goods category (+2.9%) was the main factor underlying September's rise, which was due mostly to higher cigarette and electricity prices. These increases were to some extent compensated by weaker natural gas and gasoline prices. The increase in semi-durable goods prices was more modest (+0.2%), most of it coming from the price increases for school textbooks, newspapers, as well as magazines and periodicals. Prices in the durable goods category fell by 0.4%, while the drop in automotive vehicle prices and computer equipment and supplies prices were slightly offset by the price increases in automotive vehicle parts and supplies.

The cost of services increased by 2.9% as a result of widespread increases, the strongest being in automotive vehicle insurance premiums. The drop in mortgage interest cost moderated somewhat these increases.

The goods index remained stable between August and September 2002. Prices in the semi-durable goods sector increased by 1.7%, while those of non-durable and durable goods fell by 0.2% each. The increase in semi-durable goods prices occurred mainly in the women's clothing category. The drop in non-durable goods prices was attributable largely to the drop in fresh vegetable prices, which the increase in natural gas prices could not offset entirely. As for the drop in durable goods prices, it was due mainly to the furniture category.

The services index also remained unchanged between August 2002 and September 2002. Essentially, the drops in traveller accommodation and air transportation prices were offset by the increases in tuition fees, homeowners' replacement cost and rent.