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62-001-XIB Consumer Price Index February 2003 |
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Highlights
Twelve-month percentage change in the CPI: +4.6%Twelve-month percentage change in the CPI excluding energy: +3.4%Energy prices, and especially gasoline prices, were the main factor in raising the All-items CPI by 4.6% between February 2002 and February 2003. This 12-month increase in the index is comparable to that of the previous month, which was 4.5%. The 12-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding energy has seen little variation over the past four months, remaining relatively stable at 3.4% in February after registering 3.5% in the previous three months. In February 2003, gasoline prices were up 32.1% compared to February 2002, while they had increased 25.1% between January 2002 and January 2003. Fuel oil price increases also contributed to the rise in the energy index in February. The 12-month increase in fuel oil prices climbed from 31.2% in January to 47.8% in February. The base effect will be completely eliminated next month when the index used as the base for comparison (March 2002) will return to a level comparable to that of September 2001.
Percentage Change from the Same Month of the Previous Year, Canada
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Basket update: In January 2003, the weights used to calculate the CPI were updated to take into account changes in consumer spending patterns. Weights that were based up until then on 1996 spending patterns were replaced by those reflecting 2001 spending patterns. For users that might be interested in finding out the effect of the change in weights for analytical purposes, the January CPI was recalculated using 1996 basket weights. Here are the results:
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After a 0.8% increase between December 2002 and January 2003, the CPI rose 0.7% between January and February 2003. The increase is largely due to higher prices for gasoline, women’s clothing, travel tours, fuel oil, cigarettes and traveller accommodation. The drop in prices of fresh fruit and fresh vegetables slightly offset these increases.
In February, consumers paid 7.0% more for gasoline than they had in January 2003. This monthly increase is greater than that of the previous month (+6.2%). Price increases ranged from 2.1% in Newfoundland and Labrador to 9.2% in Manitoba. The steady rise in crude oil prices since November 2002 contributed to the price hikes.
The women’s clothing index rose 5.8% in February as several items returned to regular price following discounts in January. Price hikes in this sector were felt most in Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.
Travel tours prices rose 11.0% between January 2003 and February 2003. This monthly increase is in keeping with the changes observed for the same month over the past five years.
The price of fuel oil increased 11.9%. This is the largest increase since the 16.0% increase in September 2000. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the price of fuel oil rose only 1.4%, while increases in the other Atlantic Provinces, Quebec and Ontario ranged between 11.0% and 15.9%. Price increases in the Western Provinces were lower, ranging between 5.0% and 6.6%.
Overall, the price of cigarettes in Canada rose 2.1% between January and February 2003. This rise is due mainly to higher in manufacturers’ prices and to increased taxes on tobacco products in British Columbia.
Travellers also experienced a 5.1% increase in accommodation prices. The largest increase was recorded in Quebec (+10.5%) where the Carnaval de Québec was in full swing.
The price of fresh vegetables fell 5.8% and that of fresh fruit 4.1%. Price decreases were mainly due to favourable weather conditions in exporting countries, as well as to the simultaneous harvesting of crops from many different countries.
After adjustment for seasonal variations, the All-items CPI increased 0.4% between January and February 2003. The transportation index (+1.6%), led by the increase in gasoline prices, contributed the most to the rise in the index. The indexes for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (+1.0%), shelter (+0.4%), clothing and footwear (+0.4%), household operations and furnishings (+0.2%), as well as for recreation, education and reading (+0.2%) also contributed to this monthly increase. The seasonally adjusted indexes for food and for health and personal care remained stable.
The prices of goods and services included in the All-items index excluding the 8 most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada increased by 3.1% between February 2002 and February 2003. This increase represents a slowdown in relation to last month (+3.3%). The cumulative effect of several minor factors, rather than that of a major factor, explains this slowdown.
The All-items index excluding the 8 most volatile components as defined by the Bank of Canada increased by 0.5% between January and February 2003, after climbing 0.7% in January. Contributing the most to this monthly increase were travel tours, women’s clothing and traveller accommodation.
Energy prices continued to rise, jumping by 19.7% between February 2002 and February 2003. Higher gasoline prices (+32.1%) accounted for three-quarters of this increase, while higher prices for fuel oil (+47.8%), natural gas (+6.8%) and electricity (+2.0%) accounted for the rest.
Between January and February 2003, energy prices rose by 4.3%. Aside from electricity prices, which remained unchanged, prices for all components of energy increased. The factors that played the largest role in this increase were still gasoline prices, which were up 7.0% in February. This is the highest monthly increase since March of last year when the gasoline index climbed by 9.2%. In March 2002 the price of a barrel of crude oil shot up by almost $6 while in February 2003 we observed an average increase of approximately $4 a barrel.
Prices in the goods sector rose by 4.8% from February 2002 to February 2003, after posting an increase of 4.5% in January. The rise in the non-durable goods index (+8.3%) was fuelled by prices for gasoline, cigarettes, fuel oil, natural gas, electricity and beef. Decreases in the prices of some vegetables, particularly lettuce, mitigated these increases to some extent. The durable goods category also progressed (+0.9%), under the effect of an increase in prices for new automotive vehicles and recreational vehicles. The semi-durable goods category index fell by 0.9%, a result of the downward pressure exerted by lower men’s and women’s clothing prices.
The cost of services rose 4.5% between February 2002 and February 2003. This increase was similar to the one recorded last month.
The goods index rose 1.1% between January 2003 and February 2003. All sectors had an upward effect on this index. The non-durable goods index (+1.3%), having a greater weight than semi-durable goods (+1.8%), had a stronger impact on the goods index. The effect of the durable goods index (+0.3%) was less significant. The major portion of the increase in prices for non-durable goods is attributable to higher gasoline prices. The decrease in fresh vegetable prices had a very slight moderating effect on the increase in the non-durable goods index. The rise in the semi-durable goods index could largely be explained by higher women’s clothing prices. The increase in prices for furniture and recreational vehicles accounted in part for the increase in the durable goods index.
The services index rose 0.5% between January 2003 and February 2003, after increasing 0.2% in January. The increases were widespread but prices for travel tours and traveller accommodation accounted for almost half of this movement.
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