Logo StatCan COVID-19: Data to Insights for a Better CanadaCOVID-19 Impact Analysis and 2020 Outlook: Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment Rental and Leasing Services Price Index

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Highlights

  • CIMERLSPI’s movements are cyclical and significantly impacted by crude oil prices and show longer recovery times after economic impacts are observed.
  • CIMERLSPI is estimated to show an overall decrease in 2020 and with a long term recovery beyond 2020.

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CIMERLSPI measures the change in price of the commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing services for the construction, transportation, mining and forestry (NAICS 53241), office (NAICS 53242), and other commercial and industrial machinery and equipment (NAICS 53249) industries.

Chart 1 CIMERLSPI Index and Year-over-Year change (%)

Data table for Chart 1 
Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 CIMERLSPI Index and CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year Change, calculated using index value and percent change units of measure (appearing as column headers).
CIMERLSPI Index CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year Change
index value percent change
2008
Quarter 1 100.3 0.5
Quarter 2 99.9 -0.4
Quarter 3 99.3 -1.1
Quarter 4Data table Note 1 99.3 -0.2
2009
Quarter 1Data table Note 1 98.9 -1.4
Quarter 2Data table Note 1 97.5 -2.4
Quarter 3 95.9 -3.4
Quarter 4 94.7 -4.6
2010
Quarter 1 94.1 -4.9
Quarter 2 93.6 -4.0
Quarter 3 93.4 -2.6
Quarter 4 93.4 -1.4
2011
Quarter 1 93.4 -0.7
Quarter 2 94.4 0.9
Quarter 3 95.1 1.8
Quarter 4 95.1 1.8
2012
Quarter 1 95.2 1.9
Quarter 2 95.2 0.8
Quarter 3 95.6 0.5
Quarter 4 94.8 -0.3
2013
Quarter 1 94.7 -0.5
Quarter 2 95.6 0.4
Quarter 3 96.1 0.5
Quarter 4 96.0 1.3
2014
Quarter 1 96.6 2.0
Quarter 2 97.2 1.7
Quarter 3 97.3 1.2
Quarter 4 96.9 0.9
2015
Quarter 1Data table Note 2 95.5 -1.1
Quarter 2Data table Note 2 95.0 -2.3
Quarter 3 94.4 -3.0
Quarter 4 93.5 -3.5
2016
Quarter 1 92.3 -3.4
Quarter 2 91.0 -4.2
Quarter 3 90.5 -4.1
Quarter 4 90.7 -3.0
2017
Quarter 1 90.5 -2.0
Quarter 2 90.8 -0.2
Quarter 3 90.6 0.1
Quarter 4 90.6 -0.1
2018
Quarter 1 90.5 0.0
Quarter 2 91.3 0.6
Quarter 3 91.3 0.8
Quarter 4 90.8 0.2
2019
Quarter 1 90.9 0.4
Quarter 2 91.4 0.1
Quarter 3 91.3 0.0
Quarter 4 90.9 0.1


CIMERLSPI movements are cyclical and show response to economic events, however the index takes several quarters to recover after downturns. Prices for crude oil, natural gas, mining products and other natural resources impact demand for equipment, therefore the commodity price influences the equipment requirements and thus rental pricing. Given the relative importance of the construction and heavy equipment rental industry (NAICS 53241) within the index, commodity prices, such as crude oil prices, can be used to help estimate CIMERLSPI trends.

As observed during declining crude oil and other commodity prices during the 2009 and 2015 recessions caused downturns in heavy equipment rental/leasing industry activity. Rental and leasing client companies, primarily in downstream construction, transportation, mining, and forestry market were affected, witnessing an overall decrease in activity. The 2015 recession, in particular, significantly impacted the heavy equipment rental industry (NAICS 53241) as many equipment clients are in oil production, which experienced slow recovery as crude oil and petroleum markets started to pick up on demand.

Chart 2 CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year (%) vs WCS Oil Prices (USD)

Data table for Chart 2 
Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2 CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year Change and WCS, calculated using percentage change and US dollars units of measure (appearing as column headers).
CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year Change WCS
percentage change US dollars
2008
Quarter 1 0.5 76.4
Quarter 2 -0.4 102.4
Quarter 3 -1.1 100.0
Quarter 4 -0.2 39.6
2009
Quarter 1 -1.4 34.1
Quarter 2 -2.4 52.2
Quarter 3 -3.4 58.2
Quarter 4 -4.6 64.1
2010
Quarter 1 -4.9 69.7
Quarter 2 -4.0 63.9
Quarter 3 -2.6 60.6
Quarter 4 -1.4 67.1
2011
Quarter 1 -0.7 71.2
Quarter 2 0.9 84.9
Quarter 3 1.8 72.1
Quarter 4 1.8 83.6
2012
Quarter 1 1.9 81.5
Quarter 2 0.8 70.6
Quarter 3 0.5 70.5
Quarter 4 -0.3 70.1
2013
Quarter 1 -0.5 62.4
Quarter 2 0.4 75.1
Quarter 3 0.5 88.3
Quarter 4 1.3 65.3
2014
Quarter 1 2.0 75.6
Quarter 2 1.7 82.9
Quarter 3 1.2 77.0
Quarter 4 0.9 58.9
2015
Quarter 1 -1.1 33.9
Quarter 2 -2.3 46.4
Quarter 3 -3.0 33.2
Quarter 4 -3.5 27.7
2016
Quarter 1 -3.4 19.2
Quarter 2 -4.2 32.3
Quarter 3 -4.1 31.4
Quarter 4 -3.0 35.0
2017
Quarter 1 -2.0 37.3
Quarter 2 -0.2 37.2
Quarter 3 0.1 38.3
Quarter 4 -0.1 43.1
2018
Quarter 1 0.0 38.6
Quarter 2 0.6 48.6
Quarter 3 0.8 47.3
Quarter 4 0.2 19.4
2019
Quarter 1 0.4 42.6
Quarter 2 0.1 49.1
Quarter 3 0.0 44.2
Quarter 4 0.1 41.1

To obtain the CIMERLSPI index projections for 2020, an initial comparison from the year-over-year percentage change of both CIMERLSPI and Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude oil prices from previous downturns. Using this comparison as a benchmark, CIMERLSPI 2020 year-over-year percentage change was estimated using 2020 WCS projected (GLJ Petroleum ConsultingNote .) year-over-year percentage change. Based on the CIMERLSPI 2020 year-over-year percent change the index value was calculated.

Decreases in oil prices at the beginning of 2020 combined with a projected slow recovery (based on the forecasting by GLJ Petroleum ConsultingNote ), will be reflected in CIMERLSPI by an overall decrease in 2020 and with a long term recovery beyond 2020, as seen in prior oil price downturns. From the first quarter of 2020 going forward, CIMERLSPI is expected to decrease year-over-year (-0.9% to -3.0%). Also for quarter over-quarter the index is also expected to decrease in 2020 for all quarters and begin to recover in the first quarter of 2021.

Chart 3 CIMERLSPI Projection 2020 Q1 to 2021 Q1: Index (L), QQ% (R), YY% (R)

Data table for Chart 3 
Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3 CIMERLSPI Index, Projection CIMERLSPI, CIMERLSPI Quarter-over-Quarter Change and CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year Change, calculated using index value and percent change units of measure (appearing as column headers).
CIMERLSPI Index Projection CIMERLSPI CIMERLSPI Quarter-over-Quarter Change CIMERLSPI Year-over-Year Change
index value percent change
2017
Quarter 1 90.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period -0.2 -2.0
Quarter 2 90.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 0.3 -0.2
Quarter 3 90.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period -0.2 0.1
Quarter 4 90.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 0 -0.1
2018
Quarter 1 90.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period -0.1 0.0
Quarter 2 91.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 0.9 0.6
Quarter 3 91.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 0.0 0.8
Quarter 4 90.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period -0.5 0.2
2019
Quarter 1 90.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 0.1 0.4
Quarter 2 91.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 0.6 0.1
Quarter 3 91.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period -0.1 0.0
Quarter 4 90.9 90.9 -0.1 0.1
2020
Quarter 1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 90.1 -0.9 -0.9
Quarter 2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 89.7 -0.5 -1.9
Quarter 3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 89.0 -0.7 -2.4
Quarter 4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 88.2 -0.9 -3.0
2021
Quarter 1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 88.7 0.6 -1.5
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