Economic and Social Reports
The COVID-19 pandemic and gross domestic product per capita growth in Canada

Release date: May 25, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202200500002-eng

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting Canadians’ daily lives since the second quarter of 2020. During the pandemic, many economic activities have been restricted, fully or partially, to help slow down the spread of this contagious disease. As a result, production and employment were cut back substantially, leading to a sharp decrease in income and a rise in the unemployment rate. While gross domestic product (GDP) had largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021, GDP per capita has not. GDP per capita of a country is often used for assessing the standard of living. Since 2020, Canada’s GDP per capita growth has averaged a decrease of 1.3% per year, down from its long-term annual average of 1.2% from 1981 to 2019 and of 1.0% per year from 2010 to 2019.

For a better understanding of the sources of Canada’s GDP per capita growth, GDP per capita is decomposed into labour productivity, work intensity, the employment rate, the participation rate and the share of the working-age population. The results show that, in the long run, labour productivity growth is the major source of Canada’s GDP per capita growth, although the contribution of other factors is also significant. However, during the pandemic, the decline in GDP per capita was driven by drops in work intensity, the employment rate and the participation rate. The drops in the participation rate and employment rate were largely driven by young people and seniors, and the drop in work intensity was mainly driven by male workers. If all three ratios had not been affected by the pandemic and had kept their momentum from 2010 onward, GDP per capita in Canada could have been 4% higher than it actually was in 2021. 

Author

Weimin Wang is with the Economic Analysis Division at Statistics Canada.

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected economic activities in Canada for past two years. Since the second quarter of 2020, nonessential economic activities such as travel, hospitality and personal services were closed or restricted to help slow down the spread of COVID-19. These restrictions were relaxed or tightened at times to try to reach a good balance between saving lives and saving the economy. As a result, production and employment were significantly cut back in the second quarter of 2020. Both production and employment have been recovering gradually since then.

This study analyzes the trends in Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capitaNote  and its sources, and examines how these trends are influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP per capita is often used for assessing the standard of living and for making cross-country comparisons in the economic standing of a country (Easterlin, 2000; Maddison, 1983).Note  Canada’s GDP per capita decreased by 1.3% per year during the pandemic from 2020 to 2021, decelerating from its long-term trend of 1.2% per year over the period from 1981 to 2019. Although Canada’s GDP has almost reached its pre-pandemic level, Canadians may not feel the recovery of the economy since GDP per capita is still lagging.

There are three sources of GDP per capita growth. The first is the improvement of production efficiency often indicated by (labour) productivity growth; the second is the change in work intensity measured as hours worked per employment; and the third is the increase of the wide measure of employment, which is defined in this paper as the ratio of total employment to population. Any change in the wide measure of employment is a result of interaction between labour demand and labour supply, and also a reflection of demographic characteristics.

Productivity growth and GDP per capita growth have been widely used interchangeably in growth theory and empirical applications under the assumption of full use of resources. Krugman (1990) claimed that productivity growth is the only way to sustain improvements in living standards or quality of life. Tang and Wang (2004) pointed out that productivity is the fundamental determinant of differences in GDP per capita across a country or region since it provides the economic base for health, education, environmental improvement, infrastructure, poverty reduction and social security. Nevertheless, Marattin and Salotti (2011) showed that it is important to recognize the difference between productivity growth and GDP per capita growth, and failing to recognize the difference can be misleading.

The most important aspect of dynamics in the wide measure of employment is the increase in the female participation rate in past decades (see, for example, Beaudry and Lemieux [1999] for Canada from 1976 to 1994, Euwals et al. [2011] for the Netherlands in the 1980s and 1990s, and Jaumotte [2003] for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from 1985 to 1999).

For a better understanding of the sources of GDP per capita growth in Canada, this paper decomposes GDP per capita into five ratios: hourly labour productivity measured as GDP per hour worked, work intensity measured as hours worked per employment, employment rate measured as employment per labour force, participation rate measured as the labour force to working-age population ratio and the share of the working-age population in the total population. The last three ratios together give the ratio of employment to population, which is termed “wide measure of employment” in this paper. To examine the role of women in the labour market, the wide measure of employment and its three components were decomposed into contributions by men and women.

The results show that over the long term from 1981 to 2019, 92.5% of GDP per capita growth was attributable to hourly labour productivity growth that was partly offset by a 14.5% decline in work intensity, and 22.0% came from growth of the wide measure of employment during the same period. During the pandemic, work intensity, the employment rate and the participation rate decreased significantly, leading to a large drop in GDP per capita. At the same time, hourly labour productivity increased by 0.7% per year on average. Without the gain in hourly labour productivity, the drop in GDP per capita in the past two years could have been 50% more than reported.

Also, the drops in the participation rate and the employment rate during the pandemic were largely driven by young people and seniors, and the drop in work intensity was mainly driven by male workers. Had the steady momentum of all ratios from 2010 onward not been interrupted by the pandemic, GDP per capita in Canada could have been 4% higher than reported in 2021.

Gross domestic product per capita: A three-term decomposition

Let Y MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamywaaaa@36D5@  be real GDP, P MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuaaaa@36CC@  be the total population, h MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiAaaaa@36E4@  be total hours worked and E MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyraaaa@36C1@  be the employment of people aged 15 and older. GDP per capita can then be written as

Y P = ( Y h ) ( h E ) ( E P )    (1) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSaaaeaaca WGzbaabaGaamiuaaaacqGH9aqpdaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamywaaqa aiaadIgaaaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaWaaeWaaeaadaWcaaqaaiaadIgaae aacaWGfbaaaaGaayjkaiaawMcaamaabmaabaWaaSaaaeaacaWGfbaa baGaamiuaaaaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaaa@42AB@

Each of these three ratios gives different information about the economy. Hourly labour productivity ( Y / h MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca WGzbaabaGaamiAaaaaaaa@37D8@ ) indicates the efficiency level of the employed resources in production, which relies on both the capital–labour ratio and multifactor productivity levelNote  . The hours worked per employment ratio ( h / E MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca WGObaabaGaamyraaaaaaa@37C4@ ) provides information on labour supply and work intensity. Its trend over time largely reflects the social progress in work–life balance. The employment per population ratio ( E / P MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca WGfbaabaGaamiuaaaaaaa@37AC@ ) reflects a result of labour market conditions and demographic characteristics.

Chart 1 presents trends in GDP per capita, GDP per hours worked, hours worked per employment (work intensity) and employment per population (the wide measure of employment) from 1981 to 2021. As expected, GDP per capita and hourly labour productivity moved up closely together before the start of the pandemic in 2020. Meanwhile, the wide measure of employment increased at a much slower pace, and work intensity trended down moderately. The chart clearly shows that before the pandemic, productivity growth was the major source of growth in GDP per capita, although the contribution of the increase in the wide measure of employment is also not negligible.

Since 2020, economic activities in Canada such as travel, hospitality and personal services have been significantly affected by the pandemic-related restrictions and regulations implemented to help slow down the spread of COVID-19. The initial impact of these restrictions and regulations was a large drop in production and employment in the second quarter of 2020. The economy has recovered gradually since the initial shock. Chart 1 shows that GDP per capita, work intensity and the wide measure of employment dropped significantly in 2020, then partly recovered in 2021. At the same time, hourly labour productivity deviated from its long-term relationship with GDP per capita and moved in the opposite direction. It moved up in response to the shock in 2020, but moved down when the economy was recovering in 2021.

Chart 1 Trends in gross domestic product per capita and its components, 1981 to 2021

Data table for Chart 1 
Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 GDP per capita, GDP per hour, Hours per employment and Employment per population, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
GDP per capita GDP per hour Hours per employment Employment per population
percent
1981 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1982 95.7 101.4 98.6 95.7
1983 97.2 103.7 98.3 95.4
1984 102.0 106.5 98.8 96.9
1985 105.8 107.5 99.4 99.0
1986 107.0 106.6 99.4 101.0
1987 109.9 107.1 100.2 102.4
1988 113.3 108.2 100.5 104.1
1989 113.9 108.4 100.4 104.6
1990 112.3 108.4 99.9 103.8
1991 108.6 109.3 98.7 100.7
1992 108.3 111.4 98.7 98.5
1993 110.0 113.5 99.0 97.9
1994 113.7 115.4 99.6 98.9
1995 115.5 116.7 99.4 99.6
1996 116.2 116.5 100.2 99.5
1997 120.0 119.8 99.5 100.6
1998 123.6 122.0 99.1 102.3
1999 128.9 125.0 99.2 104.0
2000 134.4 129.0 98.6 105.6
2001 135.3 131.0 97.7 105.7
2002 137.9 133.2 96.7 107.1
2003 139.1 133.4 95.9 108.7
2004 142.1 134.5 96.5 109.4
2005 145.2 137.5 96.2 109.8
2006 147.6 139.1 96.1 110.4
2007 149.2 139.3 96.0 111.6
2008 149.0 138.8 95.9 112.0
2009 143.0 139.4 94.2 108.9
2010 145.8 140.9 94.8 109.2
2011 148.9 143.2 94.7 109.8
2012 149.9 143.7 95.0 109.8
2013 151.8 145.8 94.6 110.0
2014 154.6 149.8 94.3 109.5
2015 154.5 149.5 94.4 109.4
2016 154.3 150.1 94.4 108.9
2017 157.0 152.5 93.8 109.8
2018 159.1 153.0 94.6 110.0
2019 159.8 154.3 93.4 110.9
2020 149.7 165.6 87.0 103.9
2021 155.7 156.3 92.0 108.3

For having an exact growth accounting framework, decomposition can be rewritten in its logarithm form:

Δ ln ( Y P ) t = Δ ln ( Y h ) t + Δ ln ( h E ) t + Δ ln ( E P ) t    (2) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gadaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamywaaqaaiaadcfaaaaacaGL OaGaayzkaaWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaeyypa0JaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gadaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamywaaqaaiaadIgaaaaacaGL OaGaayzkaaWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gadaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamiAaaqaaiaadweaaaaacaGL OaGaayzkaaWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gadaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamyraaqaaiaadcfaaaaacaGL OaGaayzkaaWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaaaa@57D2@

Decomposition suggests that the growth in the natural logarithm (“growth” or “log growth” hereafter) in GDP per capita is additive on the log growth in GDP per hour worked, hours worked per employment and employment per population.

Table 1 shows the results of decomposition for Canada in the long term before the pandemic (1981 to 2019), in the medium term after the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) and during the pandemic (2019 to 2021). As shown, Canada’s GDP per capita dropped by 1.3% per year on average over the two years during the pandemic, down from an increase of 1.2% per year on average over the long term before the pandemic. The drop in GDP per capita growth during the pandemic was largely driven by both the wide measure of employment and work intensity. It was slightly improved by the increase in hourly labour productivity. In the long term before the pandemic, GDP per capita trended up by 1.2% per year on average from 1981 to 2019, of which 92.5% came from hourly labour productivity growth and 22.0% came from the increase in the wide measure of employment, and the decreasing work intensity lowered GDP per capita growth by 0.2 percentage points per year, or by 14.5%. Annual average growth of GDP per capita and its sources for the medium-term period after the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) are similar to those in the long run.


Table 1
Annual average growth of gross domestic product per capita and its components, 1981 to 2021
Table summary
This table displays the results of Annual average growth of gross domestic product per capita and its components Before the pandemic (1981 to 2019), After the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) and During the pandemic (2019 to 2021), calculated using percent and percentage point units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Before the pandemic (1981 to 2019) After the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) During the pandemic (2019 to 2021)
percent
GDP per capita growth 1.2 1.0 -1.3
percentage point
Source of GDP per capita growth
GDP per hour 1.1 1.0 0.7
Hours per employment -0.2 -0.2 -0.8
Employment per population 0.3 0.2 -1.2
Total 1.2 1.0 -1.3
percent
Source of GDP per capita growth
GDP per hour 92.5 98.8 -50.2
Hours per employment -14.5 -15.6 60.9
Employment per population 22.0 16.8 89.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Employment per population: A three-term decomposition

With L F MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamitaiaadA eaaaa@3793@ as the number of people in the labour force aged 15 and older, and P 15 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuaiaaig dacaaI1aaaaa@3846@ as the population aged 15 and older, employment per population can be written as

E P = ( E L F ) ( L F P 15 ) ( P 15 P )    (3) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSaaaeaaca WGfbaabaGaamiuaaaacqGH9aqpdaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamyraaqa aiaadYeacaWGgbaaaaGaayjkaiaawMcaamaabmaabaWaaSaaaeaaca WGmbGaamOraaqaaiaadcfacaaIXaGaaGynaaaaaiaawIcacaGLPaaa daqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamiuaiaaigdacaaI1aaabaGaamiuaaaaai aawIcacaGLPaaaaaa@46EB@

Thus, employment per population equals the product of three ratios: the employment rate ( E / L F MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca WGfbaabaGaamitaiaadAeaaaaaaa@3873@ ), the participation rate ( L F / P 15 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca WGmbGaamOraaqaaiaadcfacaaIXaGaaGynaaaaaaa@39F8@ ) and the share of the working population ( P 15 / P MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSGbaeaaca WGqbGaaGymaiaaiwdaaeaacaWGqbaaaaaa@3931@ ). The employment rate reflects the aggregate demand for labour in an economy in which many individuals who are looking for a job can actually have one. The participation rate indicates how many people out of the working population are looking for a job, and the share of the working population is a demographic feature of an economy.

Chart 2 presents the trends in employment per population and its three components. As shown, both employment per population and the share of the working population trended up at a similar pace, while the participation rate and the employment rate did not demonstrate a trend. It seems as though the trend in employment per population is mainly driven by the share of the working population, and its variations are driven by the variations in the participation rate and the employment rate. These relationships can also be seen from their movements during the pandemic. As expected, the movement in the share of the working population was not interrupted by the pandemic, because this ratio is a reflection of demographic characteristics. The other three ratios experienced a large drop in 2020 and a partial recovery in 2021.

Chart 2 Trends in employment per population and its components, 1981 to 2021

Data table for Chart 2 
Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2 Employment per population, Employment rate, Participation rate and Share of working population, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Employment per population Employment rate Participation rate Share of working population
percent
1981 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1982 95.7 96.3 99.0 100.4
1983 95.4 95.2 99.5 100.7
1984 96.9 96.0 100.0 101.0
1985 99.0 96.9 101.0 101.3
1986 101.0 97.9 101.6 101.6
1987 102.4 98.7 101.9 101.8
1988 104.1 99.8 102.4 101.9
1989 104.6 100.1 102.5 102.0
1990 103.8 99.4 102.2 102.1
1991 100.7 97.1 101.6 102.1
1992 98.5 96.1 100.4 102.0
1993 97.9 95.9 100.0 102.1
1994 98.9 97.0 99.7 102.2
1995 99.6 98.0 99.3 102.4
1996 99.5 97.8 99.1 102.7
1997 100.6 98.4 99.3 103.0
1998 102.3 99.3 99.8 103.3
1999 104.0 100.0 100.3 103.6
2000 105.6 100.8 100.7 104.0
2001 105.7 100.4 100.8 104.4
2002 107.1 99.9 102.2 104.8
2003 108.7 100.0 103.3 105.1
2004 109.4 100.5 103.2 105.5
2005 109.8 100.9 102.7 105.9
2006 110.4 101.4 102.4 106.4
2007 111.6 101.7 102.9 106.7
2008 112.0 101.5 103.1 106.9
2009 108.9 99.2 102.5 107.2
2010 109.2 99.5 102.2 107.4
2011 109.8 100.1 102.0 107.6
2012 109.8 100.3 101.7 107.7
2013 110.0 100.5 101.6 107.8
2014 109.5 100.7 100.9 107.8
2015 109.4 100.7 100.8 107.8
2016 108.9 100.6 100.4 107.8
2017 109.8 101.3 100.5 107.9
2018 110.0 101.8 100.0 108.0
2019 110.9 102.0 100.5 108.1
2020 103.9 97.9 98.0 108.2
2021 108.3 100.2 99.7 108.4

Similarly, to obtain the associated growth accounting results, decomposition can be rewritten in its logarithm form as

Δ ln ( E P ) t = Δ ln ( E L F ) t + Δ ln ( L F P 15 ) t + Δ ln ( P 15 P ) t    (4) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gadaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamyraaqaaiaadcfaaaaacaGL OaGaayzkaaWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaeyypa0JaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gadaqadaqaamaalaaabaGaamyraaqaaiaadYeacaWGgbaa aaGaayjkaiaawMcaamaaBaaaleaacaWG0baabeaakiabgUcaRiabfs 5aejGacYgacaGGUbWaaeWaaeaadaWcaaqaaiaadYeacaWGgbaabaGa amiuaiaaigdacaaI1aaaaaGaayjkaiaawMcaamaaBaaaleaacaWG0b aabeaakiabgUcaRiabfs5aejGacYgacaGGUbWaaeWaaeaadaWcaaqa aiaadcfacaaIXaGaaGynaaqaaiaadcfaaaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaWaaS baaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaaaa@5C12@

Table 2 presents the results of decomposition for Canada from 1981 to 2021. During the pandemic, the wide measure of employment declined by 1.2% per year, of which 79.1% came from the drop in the employment rate and 33.2% came from the drop in the participation rate. In the long term, the wide measure of employment increased steadily by 0.3% per year on average, mainly driven by the increase in the employment rate and the share of the working population. There was little change in the participation rate in the long run.


Table 2
Annual average growth of employment per population and its components, 1981 to 2021
Table summary
This table displays the results of Annual average growth of employment per population and its components Before the pandemic (1981 to 2019), After the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) and During the pandemic (2019 to 2021), calculated using percent and percentage point units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Before the pandemic (1981 to 2019) After the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) During the pandemic (2019 to 2021)
percent
Employment per population growth 0.3 0.2 -1.2
percentage point
Source of employment per population growth
Employment rate 0.1 0.3 -0.9
Participation rate 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
Share of working population 0.2 0.1 0.1
Total 0.3 0.2 -1.2
percent
Source of employment per population growth
Employment rate 19.5 166.1 79.1
Participation rate 4.7 -109.3 33.2
Share of working population 75.8 43.2 -12.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Participation rate, employment rate and work intensity by gender

Although productivity growth is the major driving force of GDP per capita growth in the long run, the participation rate, the employment rate and work intensity play an important role in the short run, especially during the pandemic. This subsection examines the extent to which women contribute to changes in the participation rate, the employment rate and work intensity during the pandemic and in the longer term.

Participation rate

As shown in Table 2, the participation rate dropped by 0.4% per year during the pandemic, but it was hardly changed over the period from 1981 to 2019. However, the stable overall participation rate is a result of the increasing female participation rate and the decreasing male participation rate. As shown in Chart 3, the female participation rate rose rapidly in the 1980s and 1990s, from 50.8% in 1981 to 60.0% in 2003, and remained stable thereafter. Meanwhile, the male participation rate declined steadily over the whole sample, from 76.4% in 1981 to 67.6% in 2021. The female participation rate was 59.0% in 2021, 8.6 percentage points lower than that of men.

Chart 3 Trends in participation rate, by gender, 1981 to 2021

Data table for Chart 3 
Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3 All, Male and Female, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
All Male Female
percent
1981 100.0 100.0 100.0
1982 99.0 98.2 100.2
1983 99.5 98.0 101.8
1984 100.0 97.8 103.3
1985 101.0 97.9 105.5
1986 101.6 97.9 107.0
1987 101.9 97.6 108.2
1988 102.4 97.3 109.9
1989 102.5 97.0 110.7
1990 102.2 96.2 111.3
1991 101.6 94.8 111.6
1992 100.4 93.7 110.4
1993 100.0 93.1 110.2
1994 99.7 92.8 110.0
1995 99.3 92.1 109.9
1996 99.1 91.8 109.9
1997 99.3 91.8 110.5
1998 99.8 91.8 111.6
1999 100.3 92.1 112.6
2000 100.7 92.0 113.5
2001 100.8 91.8 114.0
2002 102.2 92.8 116.2
2003 103.3 93.3 118.1
2004 103.2 92.9 118.3
2005 102.7 92.4 117.7
2006 102.4 91.8 117.8
2007 102.9 92.1 118.7
2008 103.1 92.4 118.9
2009 102.5 91.4 118.8
2010 102.2 90.9 118.7
2011 102.0 90.8 118.4
2012 101.7 90.3 118.3
2013 101.6 90.1 118.4
2014 100.9 89.7 117.3
2015 100.8 89.8 116.9
2016 100.4 89.3 116.8
2017 100.5 89.2 117.0
2018 100.0 88.6 116.7
2019 100.5 89.0 117.2
2020 98.0 87.2 113.8
2021 99.7 88.5 116.1

To examine the contribution by gender, the log growth of a particular measure can be written as the weighted sum of the log growth of the measure by gender as follows:

Δ ln X t = w t Δ ln X t female + ( 1 w t ) Δ ln X t male    (5) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gacaWGybWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaeyypa0Jaam4D amaaBaaaleaacaWG0baabeaakiabfs5aejGacYgacaGGUbGaamiwam aaDaaaleaacaWG0baabaGaaeOzaiaabwgacaqGTbGaaeyyaiaabYga caqGLbaaaOGaey4kaSIaaiikaiaaigdacqGHsislcaWG3bWaaSbaaS qaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaaiykaiabfs5aejGacYgacaGGUbGaamiwamaa DaaaleaacaWG0baabaGaaeyBaiaabggacaqGSbGaaeyzaaaaaaa@5856@

The weight ( w t MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4DamaaBa aaleaacaWG0baabeaaaaa@3818@ ) can then be solved as 

w t = Δ ln X t Δ ln X t male Δ ln X t female Δ ln X t male    (6) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4DamaaBa aaleaacaWG0baabeaakiabg2da9maalaaabaGaeuiLdqKaciiBaiaa c6gacaWGybWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaOGaeyOeI0IaeuiLdqKaci iBaiaac6gacaWGybWaa0baaSqaaiaadshaaeaacaqGTbGaaeyyaiaa bYgacaqGLbaaaaGcbaGaeuiLdqKaciiBaiaac6gacaWGybWaa0baaS qaaiaadshaaeaacaqGMbGaaeyzaiaab2gacaqGHbGaaeiBaiaabwga aaGccqGHsislcqqHuoarciGGSbGaaiOBaiaadIfadaqhaaWcbaGaam iDaaqaaiaab2gacaqGHbGaaeiBaiaabwgaaaaaaaaa@5D34@

Substituting into enables the decomposition of the log growth of a particular variable into the contributions by men and women. Table 3 presents the corresponding decomposition results for the participation rate. As shown, the female participation rate declined by 0.4% per year during the pandemic and declined by 0.2% per year over the period from 2010 to 2019. Women and men contributed almost equally to the decline of the participation rate during these two periods. However, over the long run before the pandemic, from 1981 to 2019, the rising female participation rate led to an increase of 0.2 percentage points per year in the overall participation rate.

Employment rate

The employment rate declined during economic downturns (the early 1980s recession, the early 1990s recession, the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the current economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic), then recovered gradually after each downturn, as shown in Chart 4. Also, there are no significant differences between male and female employment rates in terms of their patterns over time.

Chart 4 Trends in employment rate, by gender, 1981 to 2021

Data table for Chart 4 
Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4 All, Male and Female, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
All Male Female
percent
1981 100.0 100.0 100.0
1982 96.3 95.6 97.3
1983 95.2 94.4 96.4
1984 96.0 95.5 96.7
1985 96.9 96.5 97.5
1986 97.9 97.5 98.4
1987 98.7 98.5 99.0
1988 99.8 99.7 100.1
1989 100.1 99.8 100.5
1990 99.4 98.9 100.2
1991 97.1 96.1 98.4
1992 96.1 94.8 97.9
1993 95.9 94.8 97.4
1994 97.0 96.0 98.3
1995 98.0 97.2 99.1
1996 97.8 97.1 98.9
1997 98.4 97.8 99.3
1998 99.3 98.5 100.3
1999 100.0 99.3 101.0
2000 100.8 100.2 101.7
2001 100.4 99.6 101.5
2002 99.9 99.0 101.2
2003 100.0 99.2 101.2
2004 100.5 99.7 101.5
2005 100.9 100.2 102.0
2006 101.4 100.7 102.4
2007 101.7 100.8 102.8
2008 101.5 100.6 102.8
2009 99.2 97.5 101.3
2010 99.5 98.2 101.0
2011 100.1 99.1 101.3
2012 100.3 99.4 101.5
2013 100.5 99.6 101.8
2014 100.7 99.7 102.0
2015 100.7 99.6 102.1
2016 100.6 99.4 102.1
2017 101.3 100.4 102.5
2018 101.8 101.1 102.9
2019 102.0 101.1 103.2
2020 97.9 97.4 98.7
2021 100.2 99.4 101.1

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the employment rate declined sharply because of the full or partial closure of many nonessential businesses. As shown in Table 3, the employment rate dropped by 0.9% per year from 2019 to 2021, of which 0.4 percentage points came from the drop in the male employment rate and 0.5 percentage points came from the drop in the female employment rate, suggesting that men and women more or less equally contributed to the drop in the employment rate during the pandemic. However, over the period after the 2009 financial crisis and before the pandemic, Canada’s employment rate increased steadily by 0.3 percentage points per year on average, totally driven by the rise in the female employment rate.


Table 3
Annual average growth in various measures and their sources, by gender, 1981 to 2019
Table summary
This table displays the results of Annual average growth in various measures and their sources Log growth , Contribution , Male and Female, calculated using percent and percentage point units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Log growth Contribution
Male Female
percent percentage point
Participation rate
2019 to 2021 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
2010 to 2019 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
1981 to 2019 0.0 -0.2 0.2
Employment rate
2019 to 2021 -0.9 -0.4 -0.5
2010 to 2019 0.3 0.0 0.3
1981 to 2019 0.1 0.0 0.0
Work intensity
2019 to 2021 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2
2010 to 2019 -0.2 -0.2 0.0
1981 to 2019 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

Work intensity

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many workers had their hours reduced involuntarily, leading to a large decline in work intensity. As shown in Table 3, work intensity dropped by 0.8% per year from 2019 to 2021, of which about three-fourths were attributable to male workers and one-fourth were attributable to female workers.

Over the long term, work intensity also trended down, but at a much smaller pace. Over the longer period (1981 to 2019) and the more recent period (2010 to 2019), work intensity declined by 0.2% per year. In both periods, the drop in work intensity was totally driven by male workers, and female work intensity remained almost unchanged, as shown in Chart 5. This finding may be because male workers worked longer hours than female workers. Average hours worked were 41.6 in 1981 and 38.7 in 2021 for male workers aged 15 and older, while they were 33.3 in 1981 and 33.9 in 2021 for female workers aged 15 and older.Note 

Chart 5 Trends in work intensity, by gender, 1981 to 2021

Data table for Chart 5 
Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 All, Male and Female, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
All Male Female
percent
1981 100.0 100.0 100.0
1982 98.6 98.8 98.8
1983 98.3 98.7 98.4
1984 98.8 99.1 99.3
1985 99.4 99.9 99.7
1986 99.4 99.9 100.1
1987 100.2 100.6 101.2
1988 100.5 101.1 101.5
1989 100.4 100.7 101.9
1990 99.9 100.1 101.8
1991 98.7 99.2 100.7
1992 98.7 99.3 100.4
1993 99.0 99.6 100.6
1994 99.6 100.4 101.1
1995 99.4 99.9 101.3
1996 100.2 100.9 102.0
1997 99.5 100.2 101.3
1998 99.1 99.6 101.2
1999 99.2 99.4 101.8
2000 98.6 98.4 101.9
2001 97.7 97.3 101.3
2002 96.7 96.4 100.4
2003 95.9 95.6 99.6
2004 96.5 96.2 100.4
2005 96.2 95.8 100.1
2006 96.1 95.5 100.3
2007 96.0 95.3 100.4
2008 95.9 95.1 100.3
2009 94.2 93.4 98.9
2010 94.8 94.1 99.3
2011 94.7 93.8 99.6
2012 95.0 94.1 99.9
2013 94.6 93.5 99.6
2014 94.3 93.2 99.2
2015 94.4 93.1 99.7
2016 94.4 93.0 99.8
2017 93.8 92.2 99.5
2018 94.6 93.0 100.2
2019 93.4 91.7 99.3
2020 87.0 85.2 92.6
2021 92.0 89.8 98.3

Participation rate, employment rate and work intensity by age group

Different age groups may respond differently to changes in labour market conditions because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this subsection, changes in the participation rate, the employment rate and work intensity by age group during the pandemic are reviewed and compared with long-term trends. All workers are divided into three age groups: young (aged 15 to 24 years), prime (aged 25 to 54 years) and senior (aged 55 years and older).

Participation rate

As shown in Table 4, the participation rate for the prime age group increased slightly over the pandemic period (2019 to 2021), driven by prime-aged women, while the participation rates for the young and senior age groups were more affected. The participation rate for young people decreased by 0.3% per year during the pandemic, compared with their unchanged participation rate over the period from 2010 to 2019. This drop in the growth of the participation rate was totally driven by young women. For the senior age group, the participation rate dropped by 0.7% per year during the pandemic, compared with an increase of 0.6% per year on average from 1981 to 2019 and 0.8% per year on average from 2010 to 2019. The large increase in the senior participation rate over the longer term was mainly driven by senior women.

Employment rate

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the employment rate of all age groups, especially the young age group. As shown in Table 4, from the period after the financial crisis (2010 to 2019) to the period of the pandemic (2019 to 2021), the employment rate dropped by 7.1 percentage points, from an increase of 4.2% per year to a decrease of 2.9% per year, for the young age group. In comparison, the prime age group saw a drop of 3.9 percentage points, from an increase of 2.4% per year to a decrease of 1.5% per year, and the senior age group saw a drop of 3.8 percentage points, from an increase of 1.4% per year to a decrease of 2.4% per year. In all age groups, men and women more or less contributed equally to the drop in the growth of the employment rate between the two periods.

Work intensity

As expected, Canadian workers have gradually reduced their average working hours since 1981, reflecting an improvement in work–life balance. As shown in Table 4, work intensity declined by 0.6% per year from 1981 to 2019 for the young age group, mainly driven by young women. This decrease is much larger than the drop of 0.1% per year for the prime age group and the drop of 0.2% per year for the senior group. In more recent years (2010 to 2019), the work intensity of all age groups declined at a similar pace.

During the pandemic, the decline in work intensity accelerated because of a large involuntary reduction of working hours, especially for the prime and senior age groups. Work intensity dropped by 0.3% per year for the young age group, 0.9% for the prime group and 1.0% for the senior group. Such rate drops were mainly driven by a decline in hours worked for male workers.   


Table 4
Annual average growth in various measures and their sources, by age group
Table summary
This table displays the results of Annual average growth in various measures and their sources Log growth, Contribution , Male and Female, calculated using percent and percentage point units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Log growth Contribution
Male Female
percent percentage point
During the pandemic (2019 to 2021)
Participation rate
Aged 15 to 24 years -0.3 0.0 -0.3
Aged 25 to 54 years 0.1 0.0 0.1
Aged 55 years and older -0.7 -0.3 -0.4
Employment rate
Aged 15 to 24 years -2.9 -1.3 -1.6
Aged 25 to 54 years -1.5 -0.7 -0.7
Aged 55 years and older -2.4 -1.1 -1.3
Work intensity
Aged 15 to 24 years -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Aged 25 to 54 years -0.9 -0.6 -0.3
Aged 55 years and older -1.0 -0.7 -0.2
After the financial crisis (2010 to 2019)
Participation rate
Aged 15 to 24 years 0.0 0.0 0.0
Aged 25 to 54 years 0.1 0.0 0.1
Aged 55 years and older 0.8 0.2 0.6
Employment rate
Aged 15 to 24 years 4.2 2.7 1.5
Aged 25 to 54 years 2.4 1.4 1.0
Aged 55 years and older 1.4 1.0 0.4
Work intensity
Aged 15 to 24 years -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Aged 25 to 54 years -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Aged 55 years and older -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Before the pandemic (1981 to 2019)
Participation rate
Aged 15 to 24 years -0.2 -0.2 0.0
Aged 25 to 54 years 0.2 -0.1 0.3
Aged 55 years and older 0.6 0.0 0.6
Employment rate
Aged 15 to 24 years 2.0 0.7 1.3
Aged 25 to 54 years 1.3 0.2 1.1
Aged 55 years and older -0.9 -0.3 -0.7
Work intensity
Aged 15 to 24 years -0.6 -0.2 -0.4
Aged 25 to 54 years -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Aged 55 years and older -0.2 -0.2 0.0

Conclusion

Consistent with the findings in the literature, improvement in productivity is the most important source of Canada’s GDP per capita growth. However, the wedge between GDP per capita growth and productivity growth is not negligible. This paper shows that in Canada, 92.5% of GDP per capita growth over the period from 1981 to 2019 came from hourly labour productivity growth that was partly offset by a 14.5% decline in work intensity, and 22% came from growth of the wide measure of employment during the same period.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected economic activities in Canada. During the pandemic, GDP per capita and hourly labour productivity moved in opposite directions; this is different from their relationship in the long run. GDP per capita in Canada dropped by 1.3% per year from 2019 to 2021, and the drop was driven by decreases in work intensity, the employment rate and the participation rate. The drops in the participation rate and the employment rate during the pandemic were largely driven by the young and senior age groups, and the drop in work intensity was mainly driven by male workers. If all three ratios had not been interrupted by the pandemic and had kept their momentum from 2010 onward (i.e., the participation rate decreased by 0.2% per year instead of by 0.4% per year, the employment rate increased by 0.3% per year instead of dropping by 0.9% per year and work intensity decreased by 0.2% per year instead of by 0.8% per year), GDP per capita in Canada could have been 4% higher than it actually was in 2021.  

References

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