Analysis

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Stocks of Canadian grain at March 31, 2008

Except for corn for grain and oats, total stocks of major grains and oilseeds, including commercial and on-farm inventories, had declined as of March 31, 2008, compared with the same date in 2007, according to a survey of grain farmers and commercial grain holders.

Total corn for grain stocks were a record, and total oat storage levels remained well above the five-year average.

Stocks of wheat tumble

Total stocks of wheat excluding durum amounted to an estimated 8.8 million tonnes, down 4.0 million tonnes in March of 2007. The decline was mainly the result of a 25.3 % drop in production in 2007. Prairie on-farm stocks alone were down 36.6% to 5.6 million tonnes, well below the five-year average of 7.6 million tonnes.

Commercially held stocks and on-farm stocks in all Prairie provinces tumbled to levels below the five-year average.

Total stocks of durum wheat fell 35.2% to 2.1 million tonnes, an estimate below the five-year average of 3.8 million tonnes. Just two years ago, a record 5.2 million tonnes of durum was reported.

On-farm durum stock amounts in the Prairie provinces tumbled to levels not seen since 1989. On-farm stocks of durum were down in all Prairie provinces and in commercial positions to estimates dramatically below the five-year average.

Stocks of canola down

Total stocks of canola were 3.7 million tonnes, 22.2% below March 2007. On-farm stock levels in the Prairie provinces where the majority of Canadian canola is grown were all down. Total prairie province on-farm stocks of canola were 2.5 million tonnes, compared to the five-year average of 2.8 million tonnes. Lower production in 2007 and increased exports and record crushings led to the draw-down in total stocks.

Oats stocks rise

Total stocks of oats at the end of March were the highest since the year 2000, primarily due to very strong production levels in 2007. The total stock estimate for oats was 2.0 million tonnes, an increase of 30.3% from 2007 and substantially above the five-year average of 1.6 million tonnes.

Total stocks of barley down marginally

Total stocks of barley were down just 2.4% from March 2007 to 4.5 million tonnes. The five-year average is 5.4 million tonnes.

Stock levels remained unchanged in Manitoba, but declined in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Record stocks of grain corn

Despite increasing demand for ethanol and for animal feed, record high supplies from imports and production have kept total stocks of grain corn at 6.0 million tonnes, 10.0% higher than March 2007. This level easily exceeds the previous record of 5.8 million tonnes set in 2006.

In Ontario, on-farm stocks of corn for grain rose 18.2% to a record 2.7 million tonnes, surpassing the record of 2.5 million tonnes set in March 2006. Quebec farmers reported a robust increase of 40.7% to 1.9 million tonnes.