21F0018XIE

Rural and Small Town Canada: An Overview

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Slides: 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Slide 11

This map emphasises the diversity of population growth and decline among census divisions in Canada.

Note strong population growth in northern regions.

Note (continuing) population declines in the agricultural regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Note continuing population declines in parts of the Gaspé region of Quebec, northern New Brunswick, the tips of Nova Scotia and in Newfoundland.

Population continues to grow in census divisions where the workforce can access large cities.

Slide 12

The purpose of this map was to illustrate the diversity of outcomes within census divisions.

However, perhaps the more startling finding is the spread of territory where every community reported population declines in three consecutive intercensal periods (from 1981 to 1986 and from 1986 to 1991 and from 1991 to 1996). These areas have an orange shade and are most noticeable in Saskatchewan, the lower St. Lawrence region of Québec, northern New Brunswick, Cape Breton Island and parts of Newfoundland.

A similar finding is the spread of territory where every community reported population growth in three consecutive intercensal periods. These communities include communities in the northern regions, some communities in British Columbia, communities in the Lethbridge to Edmonton axis, most communities in southern Ontario, many communities in the vicinity of Montréal, and communities close to large cities in the Atlantic Provinces.

Slide 13

Overall, more individuals moved into predominantly rural regions than moved out of predominantly rural regions in the 1991 to 1996 period. The largest rate of in-migration was into the rural metro-adjacent regions. Rural northern regions suffered net out-migration equal to 2.6 percent of their population.

Slide 14

Patterns of net migration (i.e. individuals voting with their feet) show which rural regions are gaining new migrants and which rural regions are losing population due to migration.

Areas gaining population are associated with cities or with desirable places to live (such as southern British Columbia, cottage country north of Toronto and cottage country north of Montréal).

Net outmigration occurred between 1991 and 1996 in most of Saskatchewan, in most agricultural regions of Manitoba outside the commuting zone of Winnipeg, in three counties in southwestern Ontario, much of Quebec outside the influence of Montréal and many areas of the Atlantic Provinces outside the influence of larger cities.

Slide 15

The Rural Dialogue participants used the words "out-migration of youth" to verbalise one problem requiring attention by rural community leaders and by provincial and federal policy and programs.

In fact, both rural and urban youth leave their home communities. Interestingly, youth leave both rural and urban communities at about the same rate. For example, compare the rural and urban out-migration rates for persons 20 to 24 years of age - from 1986 to 1991 and from 1991 to 1996, about 25 percent of residents in rural and small (RST) communities left their communities and about 22 percent of residents of urban communities left their communities.

In addition, youth are more mobile - the percent of rural and urban individuals who leave their community is much higher for individuals in younger age classes (and this observation is the same for rural youth and for urban youth). The bars in Figure 1 are taller for the younger age groups.

Rural individuals are more mobile - the rate of out-migration from one's community is somewhat, but systematically, higher in rural communities compared to urban communities, within each age class. In Figure 1, within each age group, out-migration by rural residents is higher than the out-migration of urban residents.

A final and important observation is that a much higher share of rural teenagers, 15 to 19 years of age, leave their rural community, compared to teenagers in urban communities. It appears that it is a necessity for many rural and small town teenagers to "leave home" to pursue post-secondary education.

Note that in the next age class (typically after some post-secondary education), urban young adults are (almost) as mobile as rural young adults in the same age class, 20 to 24 years of age.

The large difference in teenage out-migration rates between rural and urban communities speaks to the angst of rural people as their teenagers "leave home". This large rural-urban differential means that rural teenagers face higher economic costs because they must pay room and board in the city and they face higher social and psychological costs as they leave their support networks of family and friends to live in the city.

Slide 16

Within rural and small town communities across Canada, there is a wide range of rural teenage out-migration rates. When summarised by province, we see that rural teenager out-migration rates are relatively higher in the four western provinces (Figure 2). Rural teenager out-migration rates are relatively lower in the four Atlantic Provinces. The latter observation is one piece of evidence of the stronger cultural ties (or social cohesion) within rural and small town communities in the Atlantic Provinces.

Slide 17

It is instructive to note that the employment rate (i.e. the percent of individuals in each age group who have employment) for rural youth also varies widely across the provinces. The rural youth employment rate is relatively lower in the four Atlantic Provinces (and dramatically lower in rural and small town communities in Newfoundland). In this figure, we show the employment rate for young adults, age 20 to 24, residing in predominantly rural regions. A similar ranking by province exists for each age group of rural youth: 15 to 19, 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 years of age. Note that the availability of jobs is the lowest (i.e. the employment rates are the lowest) in the same rural areas with the lowest rate of out-migration.

Slide 18

On a net basis (i.e. accounting for out-migration and in-migration), the average rural and small town community in Canada loses youth in the age classes from 15 to 24 years of age but rural and small town communities attract young adults (and older adults) in all age groups from 25 to 69 years of age. In this sense, rural and small town communities are "competitive" with cities because more people "vote with their feet" and choose to live in a rural and small town community rather to live in a larger urban centre.

Slide 19

However, as we noted above, job prospects (as indicated by the employment rate – the percent of individuals in each age group who have employment) varies widely in rural and small town communities across the provinces. This influences the ability of rural communities to attract young adults. In the 1991 to 1996 period, the western and central provinces were most successful in attracting young adults, 25 to 29 years of age, to their rural communities. The rate of in-migration into rural and small town communities in the four Atlantic Provinces was substantially less. This ranking essentially mirrors the availability of jobs as indicated above by the employment rate of rural youth.

Slide 20

What is the prospect of recruiting rural out-migrants to return to their original rural community? We looked at individuals who were 15 to 19 years of age in 1987 and, for those who left their rural community once over the next 10 years, what proportion returned by 1997 (i.e. by the time they were 25 to 29 years of age). At most, 25 percent of out-migrants returned to their original community within 10 years. The rate of return migration to rural communities is lowest in the two provinces that have experienced on-going rural depopulation over the last decades: Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Recall that the rate of out-migration is relatively low from rural communities in Newfoundland and Labrador; now we find that for the small share that do leave, only a small share return within 10 years. The rate of out-migration is relatively high from rural communities in Saskatchewan; now we find that for the large share that do leave, only a small share return within 10 years.

Slides: 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-69

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Date Modified: 2004-11-23 Important Notices

	Slide 11 This map emphasises the diversity of population growth and decline among census divisions in Canada. Note strong population growth in northern regions. Note (continuing) population declines in the agricultural regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Note continuing population declines in parts of the Gaspé region of Quebec, northern New Brunswick, the tips of Nova Scotia and in Newfoundland. Population continues to grow in census divisions where the workforce can access large cities.
	Slide 12 The purpose of this map was to illustrate the diversity of outcomes within census divisions. However, perhaps the more startling finding is the spread of territory where every community reported population declines in three consecutive intercensal periods (from 1981 to 1986 and from 1986 to 1991 and from 1991 to 1996). These areas have an orange shade and are most noticeable in Saskatchewan, the lower St. Lawrence region of Québec, northern New Brunswick, Cape Breton Island and parts of Newfoundland. A similar finding is the spread of territory where every community reported population growth in three consecutive intercensal periods. These communities include communities in the northern regions, some communities in British Columbia, communities in the Lethbridge to Edmonton axis, most communities in southern Ontario, many communities in the vicinity of Montréal, and communities close to large cities in the Atlantic Provinces.
	Slide 13 Overall, more individuals moved into predominantly rural regions than moved out of predominantly rural regions in the 1991 to 1996 period. The largest rate of in-migration was into the rural metro-adjacent regions. Rural northern regions suffered net out-migration equal to 2.6 percent of their population.
	Slide 14 Patterns of net migration (i.e. individuals voting with their feet) show which rural regions are gaining new migrants and which rural regions are losing population due to migration. Areas gaining population are associated with cities or with desirable places to live (such as southern British Columbia, cottage country north of Toronto and cottage country north of Montréal). Net outmigration occurred between 1991 and 1996 in most of Saskatchewan, in most agricultural regions of Manitoba outside the commuting zone of Winnipeg, in three counties in southwestern Ontario, much of Quebec outside the influence of Montréal and many areas of the Atlantic Provinces outside the influence of larger cities.
	Slide 15 The Rural Dialogue participants used the words "out-migration of youth" to verbalise one problem requiring attention by rural community leaders and by provincial and federal policy and programs. In fact, both rural and urban youth leave their home communities. Interestingly, youth leave both rural and urban communities at about the same rate. For example, compare the rural and urban out-migration rates for persons 20 to 24 years of age - from 1986 to 1991 and from 1991 to 1996, about 25 percent of residents in rural and small (RST) communities left their communities and about 22 percent of residents of urban communities left their communities. In addition, youth are more mobile - the percent of rural and urban individuals who leave their community is much higher for individuals in younger age classes (and this observation is the same for rural youth and for urban youth). The bars in Figure 1 are taller for the younger age groups. Rural individuals are more mobile - the rate of out-migration from one's community is somewhat, but systematically, higher in rural communities compared to urban communities, within each age class. In Figure 1, within each age group, out-migration by rural residents is higher than the out-migration of urban residents. A final and important observation is that a much higher share of rural teenagers, 15 to 19 years of age, leave their rural community, compared to teenagers in urban communities. It appears that it is a necessity for many rural and small town teenagers to "leave home" to pursue post-secondary education. Note that in the next age class (typically after some post-secondary education), urban young adults are (almost) as mobile as rural young adults in the same age class, 20 to 24 years of age. The large difference in teenage out-migration rates between rural and urban communities speaks to the angst of rural people as their teenagers "leave home". This large rural-urban differential means that rural teenagers face higher economic costs because they must pay room and board in the city and they face higher social and psychological costs as they leave their support networks of family and friends to live in the city.
	Slide 16 Within rural and small town communities across Canada, there is a wide range of rural teenage out-migration rates. When summarised by province, we see that rural teenager out-migration rates are relatively higher in the four western provinces (Figure 2). Rural teenager out-migration rates are relatively lower in the four Atlantic Provinces. The latter observation is one piece of evidence of the stronger cultural ties (or social cohesion) within rural and small town communities in the Atlantic Provinces.
	Slide 17 It is instructive to note that the employment rate (i.e. the percent of individuals in each age group who have employment) for rural youth also varies widely across the provinces. The rural youth employment rate is relatively lower in the four Atlantic Provinces (and dramatically lower in rural and small town communities in Newfoundland). In this figure, we show the employment rate for young adults, age 20 to 24, residing in predominantly rural regions. A similar ranking by province exists for each age group of rural youth: 15 to 19, 20 to 24 and 25 to 29 years of age. Note that the availability of jobs is the lowest (i.e. the employment rates are the lowest) in the same rural areas with the lowest rate of out-migration.
	Slide 18 On a net basis (i.e. accounting for out-migration and in-migration), the average rural and small town community in Canada loses youth in the age classes from 15 to 24 years of age but rural and small town communities attract young adults (and older adults) in all age groups from 25 to 69 years of age. In this sense, rural and small town communities are "competitive" with cities because more people "vote with their feet" and choose to live in a rural and small town community rather to live in a larger urban centre.
	Slide 19 However, as we noted above, job prospects (as indicated by the employment rate – the percent of individuals in each age group who have employment) varies widely in rural and small town communities across the provinces. This influences the ability of rural communities to attract young adults. In the 1991 to 1996 period, the western and central provinces were most successful in attracting young adults, 25 to 29 years of age, to their rural communities. The rate of in-migration into rural and small town communities in the four Atlantic Provinces was substantially less. This ranking essentially mirrors the availability of jobs as indicated above by the employment rate of rural youth.
	Slide 20 What is the prospect of recruiting rural out-migrants to return to their original rural community? We looked at individuals who were 15 to 19 years of age in 1987 and, for those who left their rural community once over the next 10 years, what proportion returned by 1997 (i.e. by the time they were 25 to 29 years of age). At most, 25 percent of out-migrants returned to their original community within 10 years. The rate of return migration to rural communities is lowest in the two provinces that have experienced on-going rural depopulation over the last decades: Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Recall that the rate of out-migration is relatively low from rural communities in Newfoundland and Labrador; now we find that for the small share that do leave, only a small share return within 10 years. The rate of out-migration is relatively high from rural communities in Saskatchewan; now we find that for the large share that do leave, only a small share return within 10 years.