VISTA on the Agri-food Industry and the Farm Community
Effects of the Crop Reporting Cycle on Field Crop Statistics

by Omar Youssouf

Release date: November 8, 2018

Introduction 

 The Field Crop Reporting Series produces national and provincial estimates on seeded and harvested areas, yields, production and on-farm stocks over the course of a crop cycle. The data provide an overview of field crops and insight into the farming industry in Canada. The timing of the survey collection period is crucial and ensures a timely and accurate picture of the crop situation, thereby meeting the industry need for these data.

The March farm survey provides preliminary area estimates for the type of crop area that, at the time of collection, farmers intend to seed. The acreage is often reported at a time when there is still snow on the ground. However, the data on seeding intentions are used by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to calculate its first grain estimates for the summer farm income forecast.

The June farm survey provides the final estimates of the area that farmers actually seeded. The preliminary data obtained in the July farm survey provide AAFC with an early indication of production for the upcoming crop year. These estimates are used as a basis for subsequent surveys throughout the year (harvested area, yield and production).

The model-based principal field crop estimates released in September provide yield and production data for select crops later in the season when crops are closer to maturity or in some cases when harvest has begun. Prior to 2016, traditional survey methodology was used to collect yield and production data for all crops at this time of year. In 2016, the September farm survey was replaced with model-based estimates derived using an innovative approach developed by Statistics Canada and AAFC.

Lastly, the November farm survey collects final yield and production data once harvest is finished, except for a few crops for which harvest may continue later into the fall.  

In the field crop industry, several factors have a significant impact on farmers’ seeding decisions, affecting the preliminary intention (March) and final seeded area (June) data that producers provide to Statistics Canada. Factors such as price variability, weather events and socioeconomic influences have important impacts on seeded area estimates. With regard to production estimates, weather variances that occur between all the surveys can explain differences between estimates.

Comparisons between March seeding intentions and June final seeded area

Canola and all wheat

Trends published regarding the seeding area of Canada’s two top crops—canola and all wheat—were consistent when the March and June surveys were compared (charts 1 and 2) from 2008 to 2018.

From 2008 to 2014, the canola area estimates from the June surveys were an average of 4.4% higher than those from the March occasion. The difference between the two survey occasions decreased to an average of 3.5% from 2015 to 2018.

Trends in seeded area estimates for all wheat were similar in the two survey occasions. From 2008 to 2018, the difference between the March and June estimates of actual seeded area varied from almost 0.0% in 2008 to a maximum difference of 4.7% in 2011.

Chart 1 Preliminary and final canola seeded area estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 1
Data table for Chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 1 March seeded area and June seeded area, calculated using thousands of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
March seeded area June seeded area
thousands of acres
2008 14,805 15,812
2009 14,990 15,825
2010 16,907 17,895
2011 19,225 19,800
2012 20,372 21,273
2013 19,133 19,738
2014 19,801 20,228
2015 19,416 19,840
2016 19,345 20,020
2017 22,387 22,837
2018 21,383 22,740

Chart 2 Preliminary and final all wheat seeded area estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 2
Data table for Chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 2 March seeded area and June seeded area, calculated using thousands of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
March seeded area June seeded area
thousands of acres
2008 25,109 25,100
2009 25,161 24,932
2010 23,221 22,720
2011 24,724 23,568
2012 24,325 23,812
2013 26,618 25,906
2014 24,766 24,087
2015 24,765 24,142
2016 23,846 23,177
2017 23,182 22,361
2018 25,259 24,710

Soybeans and corn for grain

While soybeans and corn for grain have a later growing season, Statistics Canada’s March survey results are in line with the final June survey results (charts 3 and 4). From 2008 to 2011, the average difference between the two survey occasions for corn for grain estimates was -2.2%. From 2008 to 2018, the difference between the March and June survey results was at its lowest in 2015 at -0.5%, while the highest difference was in 2014 at -7.4%.

Canada’s soybean area grew significantly from 3.0 million acres in 2008 to 6.3 million acres in June 2018. Statistics Canada was able to capture the expansion of soybean acreage in its March estimates, a trend confirmed in the June final estimates. From 2008 to 2018, the average percentage difference between the estimates from the two surveys was +3.9%. In 2008, the difference between the survey results was at its lowest at +0.3%. In contrast, the largest relative difference between the estimates from the two surveys was +8.7% in 2012.

Chart 3 Preliminary and final soybean seeded area estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 3
Data table for Chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 3 March seeded area and June seeded area, calculated using thousands of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
March seeded area June seeded area
thousands of acres
2008 2,985 2,993
2009 3,284 3,476
2010 3,532 3,724
2011 3,757 3,885
2012 3,969 4,316
2013 4,294 4,589
2014 5,264 5,583
2015 5,375 5,420
2016 5,306 5,465
2017 6,956 7,282
2018 6,452 6,320

Chart 4 Preliminary and final corn for grain seeded area estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 4
Data table for Chart 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 4 March seeded area and June seeded area, calculated using thousands of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
March seeded area June seeded area
thousands of acres
2008 3,005 2,975
2009 3,084 3,041
2010 3,016 2,981
2011 3,211 3,041
2012 3,562 3,638
2013 3,813 3,645
2014 3,369 3,119
2015 3,268 3,252
2016 3,477 3,330
2017 3,751 3,576
2018 3,758 3,634

Barley and oats

As is the case for other principal field crops, Statistics Canada’s area estimates for barley and oats consistently exhibit the same trends between the two survey occasions (charts 5 and 6). For oat estimates, the lowest percentage difference between the estimates from the two surveys was in 2013 at -0.2%, while the greatest percentage difference was in 2012 at -9.4%. Over the last five years, the difference between the March and June estimates was, on average, below 5.0%.

For barley, the lowest percentage difference between the two estimates was in 2015 at +0.5%. The highest percentage difference was -8.9% in 2011, a year when severe flooding occurred across the nation.

Chart 5 Preliminary and final oats seeded area estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 5
Data table for Chart 5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 5 March seeded area and June seeded area, calculated using thousands of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
March seeded area June seeded area
thousands of acres
2008 4,485 4,382
2009 3,955 3,879
2010 3,992 3,738
2011 4,056 3,814
2012 3,393 3,074
2013 3,379 3,371
2014 3,188 3,046
2015 3,645 3,403
2016 2,972 2,861
2017 3,419 3,220
2018 3,148 3,053

Chart 6 Preliminary and final barley seeded area estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 6
Data table for Chart 6
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 6 March seeded area and June seeded area, calculated using thousands of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
March seeded area June seeded area
thousands of acres
2008 9,332 9,072
2009 9,476 8,778
2010 8,344 8,052
2011 7,833 7,139
2012 7,968 7,365
2013 7,240 7,175
2014 6,311 6,089
2015 6,478 6,511
2016 6,777 6,385
2017 5,880 5,771
2018 6,059 6,499

Preliminary July and September production estimates compared to final November production

Canola and all wheat

For canola, the greatest percentage difference between the July and November survey estimates was in 2015 at 29.1%, while the lowest was in 2011 at +7.4%. From 2008 to 2017, the average difference between the July estimate and final production in November was 13.7%, compared with an average difference of 10.6% between September and November.

The difference between the July and November survey results for all wheat production estimates was at its lowest in 2012 at 0.7%, while the greatest difference was in 2013 at +22.8%. The average difference between the July estimate and November production was 9.5%, falling to 6.1% when the September estimate is compared with November final production.

Results show that the September occasion consistently provides estimates closer to the final November results. The crops are further advanced in the growing season, and farmers are able to provide better estimates about harvest and yield.

In 2016, Statistics Canada began using a yield-model approach, which incorporates remote sensing technology to produce estimates of yields. Results from this new approach have been consistent with September data produced using traditional survey techniques. Specifically, both the survey and the yield-model data for September align more closely with final production data from November than preliminary estimates from July.

In the last decade, relative differences between preliminary and final production estimates for canola and all wheat were on average greater than the differences for the other major field crops (charts 7 and 8).

Chart 7 Preliminary and final canola production estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2017

Data table for Chart 7
Data table for Chart 7
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 7 July production, September production and November production, calculated using thousands of tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
July production September production November production
thousands of tonnes
2008 10,375 10,870 12,643
2009 9,541 10,270 11,825
2010 10,867 10,430 11,866
2011 13,192 12,928 14,164
2012 15,409 13,359 13,309
2013 14,734 15,963 17,960
2014 13,908 14,080 15,555
2015 13,343 14,298 17,231
2016 17,024 18,384 18,424
2017 18,203 19,708 21,313

Chart 8 Preliminary and final all wheat production estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2017

Data table for Chart 8
Data table for Chart 8
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 8 July production, September production and November production, calculated using thousands of tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
July production September production November production
thousands of tonnes
2008 25,426 27,266 28,611
2009 23,614 24,581 26,515
2010 22,659 22,205 23,167
2011 24,076 24,160 25,261
2012 27,012 26,733 27,205
2013 30,562 33,026 37,529
2014 27,704 27,481 29,281
2015 24,625 26,061 27,594
2016 30,487 31,530 31,729
2017 25,541 27,130 29,984

Soybeans and corn for grain

The difference between the July and November survey estimates for soybeans varied from -0.3% in 2017 to a maximum difference of +11.9% in 2012. From 2008 to 2017, final soybean production estimates were on average 6.6% greater than the preliminary production figures captured in July (Chart 9). The overall average difference fell to 4.6% when the September estimates were compared with final production from November.

The average difference between the July and November production estimates for corn for grain was virtually the same as the difference for soybeans—final production estimates were on average 6.5% greater than the July estimates (chart 10). The lowest relative difference between the estimates from the two surveys was +0.5% in 2014, and the greatest difference occurred in 2012 at +11.6%. The average difference between the September estimate and November final production for corn for grain was lower than the difference between the July estimate and November final production, falling to 5.3%.

Soybeans and corn for grain start to mature in September. This causes uncertainty with regards to the reporting of production figures in July. Regardless, Statistics Canada July survey results have been in line with the final November estimates on numerous occasions.

Chart 9 Preliminary and final soybean production estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2017

Data table for Chart 9
Data table for Chart 9
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 9 July production, September production and November production, calculated using thousands of tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
July production September production November production
thousands of tonnes
2008 3,167 3,240 3,336
2009 3,483 3,597 3,504
2010 3,951 4,028 4,345
2011 3,862 3,921 4,246
2012 4,405 4,280 4,929
2013 4,798 4,817 5,198
2014 5,901 5,961 6,049
2015 5,857 5,928 6,235
2016 5,827 6,058 6,463
2017 7,743 8,321 7,717

Chart 10 Preliminary and final corn for grain production estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2017

Data table for Chart 10
Data table for Chart 10
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 10 July production, September production and November production, calculated using thousands of tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
July production September production November production
thousands of tonnes
2008 9,892 9,893 10,592
2009 9,437 9,739 9,561
2010 10,823 10,865 11,715
2011 9,983 10,067 10,689
2012 11,703 11,576 13,060
2013 13,075 12,943 14,194
2014 11,431 11,397 11,487
2015 12,312 12,204 13,559
2016 12,349 13,118 13,193
2017 13,645 14,313 14,095

Barley and oats

In the last decade, barley final production estimates were on average relatively close to the July and September estimates when compared with those for other principal field crops (Chart 11). Barley estimates in November were on average 2.1% greater than the July estimate. The difference ranged from ‑15.7% in 2012 to a maximum of +16.2% in 2013. The average difference between the September estimate and the November estimate was slightly higher, at 2.2%.

Oat production figures were on average 4.2% greater in July than in November (Chart 12). The difference ranged from +33.7% in 2013 to -5.7% in 2009. When the September production estimates were compared to the final November estimates, the average difference fell to 2.9%.

When reporting production figures in July, farmers rely on their best assessment given the growth stage of the crop at the time of the interview. Although predicting growing conditions and their impact on production figures remains a challenge for anyone in the agricultural industry, the preliminary July estimates have proven to be an important indicator of final production figures.

Chart 11 Preliminary and final barley production estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2017

Data table for Chart 11
Data table for Chart 11
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 11 July production, September production and November production, calculated using thousands of tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
July production September production November production
thousands of tonnes
2008 10,876 11,219 11,781
2009 8,948 9,165 9,517
2010 8,488 8,259 7,605
2011 8,274 7,898 7,755
2012 9,507 8,591 8,012
2013 8,807 9,247 10,237
2014 7,163 7,120 7,119
2015 7,305 7,610 8,226
2016 8,704 8,562 8,784
2017 7,212 7,306 7,891

Chart 12 Preliminary and final oats production estimates, Canada, 2008 to 2017

Data table for Chart 12
Data table for Chart 12
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 12 July production, September production and November production, calculated using thousands of tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
July production September production November production
thousands of tonnes
2008 4,061 4,321 4,273
2009 2,967 2,900 2,798
2010 2,392 2,321 2,298
2011 2,886 2,887 2,997
2012 2,994 2,939 2,684
2013 2,907 3,163 3,888
2014 2,639 2,686 2,908
2015 3,312 3,292 3,428
2016 3,018 2,976 3,147
2017 3,685 3,802 3,724

Impact of weather events on seeded area and production estimates

Preliminary and final seeded area

The field crop industry is heavily dependent on weather since the weather plays a major role in determining the success of a crop. Despite all other factors, weather events could result in late seeding or land left idle.

The year 2011 serves as a prime example of how weather variability and its effect on seeding can cause differences in area estimates published by the Field Crop Reporting Series between March and June. In 2011, temperatures across Canada, including the Prairies, where the majority of field crops are grown, were below average (Map 1).

Map 1

Map 1 Monthly Mean Temperature Difference from Normal (National), March 2011

Description for Map 1

"Monthly Mean Temperature Difference from Normal (National), March 2011"

This map image represents Canada in static scale details the mean temperature difference from normal in March 2011

The mean temperature differences were at least 2.0 degrees Celsius below normal for the majority of western Canada. All other regions experienced no difference, to above normal temperature difference from normal.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Drought Watch Map Archive.

As the growing season progressed, planting conditions, such as heavy rains (Map 2), and later-than-normal snow melt resulted in severe flooding in some parts of the Prairies. This left several thousand acres of land unplanted. Although 2011 is an extreme example, more moderate variability in weather and even economic factors can result in farmers altering their seeding decisions between March and June.

Map 2

Map 2 1 Month (30 Days) Accumulated Precipitation (National), May 22, 2011 to June 20, 2011

Description for Map 2

"1 Month (30 Days) Accumulated Precipitation (National), May 22, 2011 to June 20, 2011"

This map image represents Canada in static scale details the accumulated precipitation between May 22, 2011 to June 20, 2011.

The accumulated precipitation ranged between 70 to 250 mm for the majority of cropable land in western Canada. All other regions experienced accumulated precipitation ranging from 10 to 100 mm.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Drought Watch Map Archive.

Chart 13 indicates the percentage differences between the March and June survey results for all six major field crops in Canada from 2008 to 2018. The largest difference between seeding intentions and final seeding estimates occurred in 2011, when the average percentage difference between the two occasions for the six major field crops was -3.1%. This further confirms that the variability of weather events between survey collection periods can influence survey results.

Chart 13 Average difference between prelimininary and final seeding estimates for the six major field crops, Canada, 2008 to 2018

Data table for Chart 13
Data table for Chart 13
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for Chart 13. The information is grouped by Canada (appearing as row headers), Average difference, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Canada Average difference
percent
2008 0.2
2009 0.0
2010 -0.3
2011 -3.1
2012 -0.6
2013 0.3
2014 -1.6
2015 -1.0
2016 -1.7
2017 -1.5
2018 0.5

Similar weather events occurred in 2014, when a late snow melt coupled with heavy precipitation near planting season caused farmers to change their seeding intentions (Maps 3 and 4). During this year, the relative difference between the estimates for the six major field crops from the two surveys ranged from ‑7.4% to 6.1%. In the same year, canola estimates accounted for the largest increase in acreage between the two occasions at +427,000 acres, while areas for all wheat varieties accounted for the largest difference at -680,000 acres.

Map 3

Map 3 Monthly Mean Temperature Difference from Normal (National), March 2014

Description for Map 3

"Monthly Mean Temperature Difference from Normal (National), March 2014"

This map image represents Canada in static scale details the mean temperature difference from normal in March 2014.

The mean temperature differences were below normal for the majority of Canada.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Drought Watch Map Archive.

Map 4

Map 4 Accumulated Precipitation (mm), in past 30 days, as of June 30, 2014

Description for Map 4

"Accumulated Precipitation (mm), in past 30 days, as of June 30, 2014"

This map image represents Canada in static scale details the accumulated precipitation in the past 30 days as of June 30, 2014.

The accumulated precipitation ranged between 100 to 200 mm for regions encompassing most of Saskatchewan, southern portions of Manitoba, eastern regions of Ontario and southern part of Quebec. The vast majority of the Maritimes also accumulated similar ranges of precipitation. All other regions experienced precipitation between 10 to 100 mm.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Drought Watch Map Archive.

Preliminary and final production estimates

The weather variations captured between the July and September preliminary production estimates and the November final productions contributed to the variability between the survey results. However, Statistics Canada was able to capture the direction of the final estimates of Canada’s top six major field crops with the July preliminary survey (charts 7 to 12).

For instance, at the time of both the July and September 2013 surveys, Prairies farmers reported that recent weather events, such as hail and heavy rain episodes, may have had adverse effects on some areas to be harvested. However, during the November 2013 survey, producers reported that, despite a late start to the spring seeding, weather conditions that prevailed up to the end of the summer led to higher yields. This was especially true in Western Canada, and it paved the way for what was referred to as the “bumper crop year”. July 2013 results pegged national canola production at 14.7 million tonnes; however, results from September occasion placed estimates at 16.0 million tonnes, closer to the November 2013 final production at 18.0 million tonnes (up 21.9% compared with July 2013). Similarly, all wheat production increased 22.8% from the 30.6 million tonnes estimated in July 2013 to 33.0 million tonnes in September and finally 37.5 million tonnes estimated in November 2013.

The year 2015 serves as another important example of how weather variances can influence estimates in the two survey occasions. At the time of the July 2015 survey, Alberta and Saskatchewan farmers reported concerns of lower yields and decreased harvestable areas because of excessively dry growing conditions. Leading up to harvest, soil conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan improved. The early dry weather gave way to mid- to late-summer rains. As a result, expected yield improved through the latter parts of the growing season. Canola production was estimated at 13.3 million tonnes in July 2015 but increased to 14.3 million tonnes by September and was updated to 17.2 million tonnes in November 2015 (up 29.1% from the July 2015 estimate). Likewise, national barley production increased from the 7.3 million tonnes estimated in July 2015, to 7.6 million tonnes in September, to 8.2 million tonnes in November 2015.

Although weather can negatively affect the production estimates between July and November, Statistics Canada has captured instances when the opposite was true. For example, in 2012, producers in Western Canada reported weather conditions to be close to normal. However, during the November 2012 survey, the producers reported that disease coupled with hail had an impact on their canola yields. National canola production was 13.3 million tonnes in November, down 13.6% from the 15.4 million tonnes anticipated in July 2012, but in line with the September estimate, which projected 13.4 million tonnes. Similarly, national barley production was 8.0 million tonnes in November, down 15.7% from the 9.5 million tonnes expected in July 2012 and down 6.7% from the September estimate of 8.6 million tonnes. Eastern regions experienced favourable growing conditions, which contributed to higher yields of corn for grain and soybeans, which are predominantly grown in Eastern Canada. Corn for grain production increased 11.6% between the July and November survey occasions, while soybean production increased 11.9%.

Market conditions

Crop farming can also be affected by market conditions on a national or global scale. One such factor is the exchange rate and the role that it can play in crop planting decisions. Competitive pricing of Canadian agricultural goods in the global market can be affected by currency fluctuations. A weak currency can increase global demand for more competitively priced crops, thereby strengthening crop returns and encouraging farmers to seed specific crops. In contrast, high exchange rates can introduce a decrease in returns for the producer, causing a change in planting decisions.

Another market condition that can affect crop seeding intentions is a change in production with a stagnant demand. If demand for a specific crop remains low for a prolonged period of time, farmers who traditionally grew this crop may decide to diversify. As a result, farmers may turn to crops that are in high demand and more likely to result in higher returns. This could influence the crop planting intentions of farmers with low risk tolerance to change. A variety of factors, ranging from political to socioeconomic, can explain why some producers change their crop selection. In addition to those previously mentioned, other factors can result in changes to crop selection, including transportation issues, recent pest and disease issues, and tariffs imposed by foreign governments on Canadian agricultural goods.

Conclusion

By analyzing data obtained through Statistics Canada’s Field Crop Reporting Series, this article evaluates the differences between preliminary and final data related to the area and production of Canada’s six major field crops.

The accuracy of the March seeding intentions is strong, especially when general trends in crop area are compared. The relative changes between both datasets at the national level are minor. From 2008 to 2018, the average percentage difference at the national level in the preliminary acreage reports collected through the March farm survey ranged between +/-5.0% for Canada’s major field crops (i.e., wheat, canola, soybeans, barley, oats and corn for grain). On occasions when estimates for a particular crop exceeded +/-5.0%, factors such as weather usually played an important role. Weather events or market conditions can cause unexpected differences between the preliminary and final seeded area and production estimates. Regardless of these differences, Statistics Canada is accurately projecting the direction of the field crop estimates with data obtained through its preliminary surveys (March and July). Therefore, both the March and the July surveys serve as important indicators of final field crop statistics.

While production data collected in July and September tended to differ from final production data to varying extents depending on crop type, trends in estimated production were generally characterized correctly. Differences between production estimates and final production data can largely be attributed to weather events including excess or inadequate precipitation and temperature. In addition, the differences between the July and September estimated yields and November’s final production point allude to the inherent difficulty of predicting one’s crop production. Even in so-called “bumper crop years,” general optimism regarding yield is often muted because projecting one’s yield based on a visual inspection of standing crops is difficult.

Table 1
March and June seeded area estimates, principal field crops, Canada, 2008 to 2018
Table summary
This table displays the results of March and June seeded area estimates. The information is grouped by Seeded area (appearing as row headers), Canola, All Wheat, Soybeans, Barley, Oats and Corn for grain, calculated using thousand of acres units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Seeded area Canola All Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn for grain
thousand of acres
2018
March 21,383 25,259 6,452 6,059 3,148 3,758
June 22,740 24,710 6,320 6,499 3,053 3,634
% Difference 6.3% -2.2% -2.0% 7.3% -3.0% -3.3%
2017
March 22,387 23,182 6,956 5,880 3,419 3,751
June 22,837 22,361 7,282 5,771 3,220 3,576
% Difference 2.0% -3.5% 4.7% -1.9% -5.8% -4.7%
2016
March 19,345 23,846 5,306 6,777 2,972 3,477
June 20,020 23,177 5,465 6,385 2,861 3,330
% Difference 3.5% -2.8% 3.0% -5.8% -3.7% -4.2%
2015
March 19,416 24,765 5,375 6,478 3,645 3,268
June 19,840 24,142 5,420 6,511 3,403 3,252
% Difference 2.2% -2.5% 0.8% 0.5% -6.6% -0.5%
2014
March 19,801 24,766 5,264 6,311 3,188 3,369
June 20,228 24,087 5,583 6,089 3,046 3,119
% Difference 2.2% -2.7% 6.1% -3.5% -4.4% -7.4%
2013
March 19,133 26,618 4,294 7,240 3,379 3,813
June 19,738 25,906 4,589 7,175 3,371 3,645
% Difference 3.2% -2.7% 6.9% -0.9% -0.2% -4.4%
2012
March 20,372 24,325 3,969 7,968 3,393 3,562
June 21,273 23,812 4,316 7,365 3,074 3,638
% Difference 4.4% -2.1% 8.7% -7.6% -9.4% 2.2%
2011
March 19,225 24,724 3,757 7,833 4,056 3,211
June 19,800 23,568 3,885 7,139 3,814 3,041
% Difference 3.0% -4.7% 3.4% -8.9% -6.0% -5.3%
2010
March 16,907 23,221 3,532 8,344 3,992 3,016
June 17,895 22,720 3,724 8,052 3,738 2,981
% Difference 5.8% -2.2% 5.4% -3.5% -6.4% -1.2%
2009
March 14,990 25,161 3,284 9,476 3,955 3,084
June 15,825 24,932 3,476 8,778 3,879 3,041
% Difference 5.6% -0.9% 5.8% -7.4% -1.9% -1.4%
2008
March 14,805 25,109 2,985 9,332 4,485 3,005
June 15,812 25,100 2,993 9,072 4,382 2,975
% Difference 6.8% 0.0% 0.3% -2.8% -2.3% -1.0%
Average % change by crop type 4.1% -2.4% 3.9% -3.1% -4.5% -2.8%
Table 2
July, September and November production estimates, principal field crops, Canada, 2008 to 2017
Table summary
This table displays the results of July, September and November production estimates. The information is grouped by Production (appearing as row headers), Canola, All Wheat, Soybeans, Barley, Oats and Corn for grain, calculated using thousand of metric tonnes units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Production Canola All Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn for grain
thousand of metric tonnes
2017
July 18,203 25,541 7,743 7,212 3,685 13,645
September 19,708 27,130 8,321 7,306 3,802 14,313
November 21,313 29,984 7,717 7,891 3,724 14,095
% Difference (July-Nov) 17.1% 17.4% -0.3% 9.4% 1.1% 3.3%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 8.1% 10.5% -7.3% 8.0% -2.1% -1.5%
2016
July 17,024 30,487 5,827 8,704 3,018 12,349
September 18,384 31,530 6,058 8,563 2,976 13,118
November 18,424 31,729 6,463 8,784 3,147 13,193
% Difference (July-Nov) 8.2% 4.1% 10.9% 0.9% 4.3% 6.8%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 0.2% 0.6% 6.7% 2.6% 5.7% 0.6%
2015
July 13,343 24,625 5,857 7,305 3,312 12,312
September 14,297 26,061 5,928 7,610 3,292 12,204
November 17,231 27,594 6,235 8,226 3,428 13,559
% Difference (July-Nov) 29.1% 12.1% 6.5% 12.6% 3.5% 10.1%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 20.5% 5.9% 5.2% 8.1% 4.1% 11.1%
2014
July 13,908 27,705 5,901 7,164 2,639 11,431
September 14,080 27,481 5,961 7,120 2,686 11,397
November 15,555 29,281 6,049 7,119 2,908 11,487
% Difference (July-Nov) 11.8% 5.7% 2.5% -0.6% 10.2% 0.5%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 10.5% 6.5% 1.5% 0.0% 8.3% 0.8%
2013
July 14,735 30,562 4,798 8,807 2,907 13,075
September 15,963 33,026 4,817 9,247 3,163 12,943
November 17,960 37,530 5,198 10,237 3,888 14,194
% Difference (July-Nov) 21.9% 22.8% 8.3% 16.2% 33.7% 8.6%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 12.5% 13.6% 7.9% 10.7% 22.9% 9.7%
2012
July 15,410 27,013 4,405 9,508 2,994 11,703
September 13,359 26,733 4,280 8,591 2,939 11,576
November 13,310 27,205 4,930 8,012 2,684 13,060
% Difference (July-Nov) -13.6% 0.7% 11.9% -15.7% -10.4% 11.6%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) -0.4% 1.8% 15.2% -6.7% -8.7% 12.8%
2011
July 13,193 24,076 3,862 8,274 2,886 9,983
September 12,928 24,160 3,921 7,898 2,887 10,067
November 14,165 25,261 4,246 7,756 2,997 10,689
% Difference (July-Nov) 7.4% 4.9% 9.9% -6.3% 3.8% 7.1%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 9.6% 4.6% 8.3% -1.8% 3.8% 6.2%
2010
July 10,867 22,659 3,951 8,488 2,392 10,823
September 10,430 22,205 4,028 8,259 2,321 10,865
November 11,866 23,167 4,345 7,605 2,298 11,715
% Difference (July-Nov) 9.2% 2.2% 10.0% -10.4% -3.9% 8.2%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 13.8% 4.3% 7.9% -7.9% -1.0% 7.8%
2009
July 9,541 23,614 3,483 8,948 2,967 9,437
September 10,270 24,581 3,597 9,165 2,900 9,739
November 11,825 26,515 3,504 9,517 2,798 9,561
% Difference (July-Nov) 23.9% 12.3% 0.6% 6.4% -5.7% 1.3%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 15.1% 7.9% -2.6% 3.8% -3.5% -1.8%
2008
July 10,375 25,426 3,167 10,876 4,061 9,892
September 10,870 27,266 3,240 11,219 4,321 9,893
November 12,643 28,611 3,336 11,781 4,273 10,592
% Difference (July-Nov) 21.9% 12.5% 5.3% 8.3% 5.2% 7.1%
% Difference (Sept-Nov) 16.3% 4.9% 3.0% 5.0% -1.1% 7.1%
Average % change by crop type (July-Nov) 13.7% 9.5% 6.6% 2.1% 4.2% 6.5%
Average % change by crop type (September-Nov) 10.6% 6.1% 4.6% 2.2% 2.9% 5.3%

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