Optimal linear estimation in two-phase sampling
Section 4. Optimal linear estimation in two-phase sampling
4.1 The two-phase optimal estimator
The matrix in (3.7) comprises variances and covariances
which need to be estimated. In view of
and
and recalling (3.8), the obvious unbiased
estimates are and where the matrix has diagonal blocks ,
and off-diagonal blocks
with and are the sample matrices in (3.5).
We now obtain, as elements of the matrices and the unbiased estimates of all variances and
covariances in (3.9), i.e,
However, the matrix includes also the elements
and
which clearly do not retain the properties
and respectively. Unbiased estimates for the
variances and covariances in (3.9) could be directly used, but then the
estimate of the simple form in (3.9) could not be expressed as and thus the resulting estimator would not
retain the calibration form of the BLUE in (3.12). This complication is
circumvented using the following reformulation. Reset and as
where the sample matrices and are as before, and is the matrix of for sample with dummy values for Clearly, and are exactly as in (3.6). Then, having as
before and we obtain again where
and
as in (3.7) but with and being the population counterparts of the
redefined An extension of Lemma 1 to the redefined gives
where and are the same as in Lemma 1. It is easy now to
verify that again may be expressed analytically as in (3.9), and
the two components of the BLUE are identical to those given by (3.10). More
importantly, it follows from this special form of that we have again
and
where now and as already defined. Thus we obtain again the
BLUE in the calibration form of (3.12), and the retained orthogonal
decomposition of the vector of calibrated weights in (3.13) leads readily to
the expression (3.14). Now the orthogonality property
is induced by the block-diagonal structure of
the redefined rather than by the special structure of the
initial matrix used in (3.12).
For the reconstructed
BLUE we now have the unbiased estimates and where are the
sample matrices in (4.1), and with as defined at the beginning of the section.
From these we rederive easily the unbiased estimates of the variances and
covariances in (3.9), but two of the elements of the sample matrix which involve namely
and
require special consideration. The dummy
(unobserved) values for necessary for expanding to the population matrix in the reconstructed BLUE, are set equal to zero, and the values for are then
necessarily weighted by Then
and
reduce to
and
which are
the unbiased estimates and respectively. The estimated in (3.9) is
now given by
The BLUE with estimated will be called optimal linear unbiased
estimator, optimal estimator in short, denoted by with its two components given by
This is the sample version of the BLUEs in (3.14), with estimated
coefficients. In particular, is the customary single-phase optimal
estimator of using as auxiliary variable, and data from the full
first-phase sample see Montanari (1987) and Rao (1994).
Remark 4.1. When is very close to the optimal estimator can be quite unstable because of the near
singularity of the inverted matrix in the coefficient of and thus can become very inefficient; see,
though, later Remark 6.1 on two-phase designs in which this is not an issue.
Generally this is not a realistic setting in two-phase sampling, where is typically much smaller than
Following the construction of
and
as two of the estimates in it transpires that these two bilinear forms
can be written alternatively as
and
respectively, where is a weighted version of in which if and if Then where is in (4.1) with in place of and can be written compactly as where Henceforth, will be meant to be the matrix
As in Montanari (1987) and Rao (1994) for the
single-phase optimal estimator, for large samples and the optimal estimator approximates the BLUE and thus it is approximately unbiased.
Furthermore, the variance of approximates that of which works out easily to be
i.e., the compact form of (3.11). Then, using
the estimates and derived earlier, we obtain the estimated
approximate variance of as From this we derive the computationally
convenient expressions
where is the first column submatrix of and
4.2 The two-phase optimal estimator as calibration
estimator
The optimal estimator with , takes the form
of a calibration estimator, with vector of calibration totals and sample vector of calibrated weights satisfying This is established formally by the following
theorem; the proof is similar to that of Theorem 1, and is omitted.
Theorem 2. The
vector minimizes the generalized least-squares
distance subject to the constraints i.e.,
and
where
corresponds to
The sample vector admits the same orthogonal decomposition as
its population counterpart in (3.13). We may now write formally the
optimal estimator as a calibration estimator which in view of is generated by the simultaneous calibration
of the two estimates and of to each other, and of the estimate to the total
Now, in expanded form the vector is
Then, using the partition where and are the two orthogonal column submatrices of shown in (4.1), the two constraints are
written as
and
It also follows from (4.3) that implies (4.2). Regarding the two components of
we observe that
and that
The explicit expression of in terms of sample units, is
where and are the elements of and respectively. Formula (4.4) is simplified in
certain two-phase designs employed in important large scale surveys; examples
of such surveys are presented in Hidiroglou and Särndal (1998) and Turmelle and
Beaucage (2013). Specifically, this is the case when independent sampling (Poisson,
or stratified Poisson) is used in one of the two phases, that is, when or The simplification is considerable in the case
of independent sampling in both phases. Then, both and are diagonal, with diagonal elements and respectively, and (4.4) involves only single
summations. Other two-phase designs in which (4.4) involves single summations
only, although and are not diagonal, involve simple random
sampling or stratified simple random sampling in either phase; for an example
of a survey with such two-phase design see Hidiroglou (2001). In general,
however, the optimal estimator may not be practical because it requires the use
of first-phase and second-phase joint inclusion probabilities and which are not known for some complex sampling
designs. Even when these joint probabilities are known, but the matrices and are not diagonal, the estimated coefficient
and, hence, the optimal estimator may be
unstable in very small samples ‒ especially if the dimension of the auxiliary
vector
is large. These difficulties may be overcome,
at some loss of optimality, by employing simple approximations of the variances
and covariances in for approximate variance estimates based only
on first order inclusion probabilities see, for example, Haziza, Mecatti and Rao (2008) and references therein. A computationally very convenient
approximation of leading to a two-phase estimator that belongs
to the class of generalized regression estimators is described in the next
section.