Conclusion
Anne Massiani
Previous
We have proposed a variance estimator for poverty and
social exclusion indicators, one that takes account of the non-linearity of the
estimators, total non-response in different stages of the survey, indirect
sampling and calibration. Ideally, the effects of imputations should also be
taken into account. However, it should be noted that our approach is compatible
with the requirements of Eurostat (2010), to whom many European countries
provide only an approximation of the variance due to sampling and total non-response,
along with minimal indications on imputations such as the percentage of imputed
values. We have modified the method proposed by Lavallée (2002) for estimating
variance in the presence of non-response after weight sharing in order to
correct the bias that this method induces. Our estimator is always positive in
the case of the SILC-Switzerland survey, and it consists of three terms that
are quite simple to program. Also, in calculating only the first of these three
terms, we obtain an excellent approximation of variance.
Acknowledgements
I wish to thank Yves Tillé and Lionel Qualité of the
Université de Neuchâtel for the productive discussions, advice and attentive
review. Warms thanks are also extended to Eric Graf, Johan Pea, Thomas Christin
and Stéphane Fleury of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, who provided the
information needed for the project to go smoothly. I would like to thank
Philippe Eichenberger and Monique Graf of the Federal Statistical Office for
their support. Finally, I am very grateful to the judges and the associate
editor for having taken the time to carefully review this work. Their comments
led to many improvements.
Appendix A
Linearization formulas
What follows is a review of the linearization formulas
of Osier (2009) in the case of the four poverty indicators examined in Section
7. Let be the population of individuals present in
the survey year. In accordance with the notations used in Section 5, denotes the size of since corresponds to the target population of the
panel responding in wave 1. However, to simplify the notations in this
appendix, the size of is simply denoted by Let denote the equivalent income of individual used to calculate the poverty indicators, and
the following notation is used for any
where is an indicator variable that equals 1 if the
income of individual is less than or equal to and 0 otherwise. Linearization formulas for
the poverty indicators are first obtained by assuming that is derivable and that is non-nil. Since this is not the case, we get
around this problem by approaching by the function defined, for any as:
where
with the parameter being a smoothing parameter.
1.
At-risk-of-poverty rate
The
at-risk-of-poverty threshold, ARPT, is calculated on the basis of the median
income of the
population
The
at-risk-of-poverty rate, is defined as
follows:
The linearized that appears in
the approximation of the variance of the at-risk-of-poverty rate estimator,
given in formula (4.1), is written as follows for each individual
In Section 7,
the poverty rate was also estimated within different sub-populations. Formula (A.6)
is easily generalized in the case of sub-populations and is not reviewed here.
2.
Quintile share ratio
Let be the quantile
of order 0.8 and let be the quantile
of order 0.2, and then let:
The quintile
share ratio, denoted is defined as
follows:
Similar to what
was done for the function we approach the
function by the
derivable function defined as:
The linearized that appears in
the approximation of the variance of the quintile share ratio estimator, which
was given in formula (4.1), is written as follows for each individual
where the
quantity is defined, for
any quantile of order as follows:
3. Gini coefficient
The Gini coefficient, denoted is defined as:
where
and is defined by (A.7).
The linearized appearing in
the approximation of the variance of the Gini coefficient estimator, given in
formula (4.1), is written as follows for each individual
where the
quantity is defined by
4.
Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap
Relative median
at-risk-of-poverty gap, denoted by is defined by:
where as
previously noted, ARPT designates the poverty threshold and where is the median
income calculated for individuals with an income below the poverty threshold.
The linearized appearing in
the approximation of the variance of the RMPG estimator, given in formula (4.1),
is written as follows for each individual
where is defined by
and verifies the
equation
Appendix B
Demonstration of proposition
1
The proof has four parts.
1. Definition
of
For all longitudinals and within and belonging to households and respectively during the survey year, let
with the result that
2. Estimation
of
If the values were known for we could estimate without bias by Since this is not the case, we estimate without bias by:
Indeed, for all longitudinals and belonging to we have:
which implies that
3. Estimation
of
We can estimate by:
4. Final
formula
We estimate by:
After a few simplifications, we have:
Using (B.1), we can simplify the second term of the right member, so as
to obtain formula (5.19) given in proposition 1.
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