Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series
Wages for Young Workers up to the Age of 40
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by René Morissette
Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada
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Abstract
This study compares the earnings trajectories of several recent cohorts of young workers with those of cohorts who entered the labour market in the late 1970s. The study combines three versions of Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Worker file (LWF) and covers the 1978-to-2015 period. The main finding is that the degree of wage convergence that recent cohorts of young men have achieved relative to the 1978 cohort depends critically on which segments of the earnings distribution are considered. By the time they reached 40, young men who entered the labour market during the early 2000s and who were at the 75th or 90th percentile of the earnings distribution had higher annual wages than their counterparts who entered the labour market in the late 1970s. The opposite is true for young men who were at the 25th or 50th percentile of the earnings distribution. Hence, cross-cohort comparisons of age–earnings profiles of young men yield quite different conclusions, depending on the segment of the earnings distribution that is considered. In contrast, regardless of the segment of the earnings distribution considered, the annual wages at ages 39 to 40 and the cumulative annual wages generally increased across successive cohorts of young female employees.
Keywords: age–earnings profiles, earnings, youth, cohort analyses.
Executive summary
Over the last three decades, full-time jobs and permanent jobs have generally become scarcer for youth. In addition, median real hourly wages of young men employed in full-time jobs grew little, if at all, from the early 1980s to the mid-2010s. Along with other pieces of evidence from media reports, these facts have raised concerns that recent youth cohorts now experience less favourable earnings trajectories as they age than previous cohorts did 40 years ago.
Beaudry and Green (2000) examined this question for the first time in Canada several years ago. Using synthetic birth cohorts from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), they showed that cohorts of young Canadian men entering the labour market between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s had less favourable earnings trajectories than previous cohorts entering the labour market in the mid-1960s or early 1970s. In contrast, university-educated young women who entered the labour market in the early 1990s had more favourable age–earnings profiles than their counterparts who did so in the mid-1960s or early 1970s.
This article revisits the issue of wage convergence with previous cohorts using more recent data drawn from larger data sets than those used in the aforementioned studies. The study combines three versions of Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Worker file (LWF) that cover the 1978-to-2015 period and measures the annual wages of young workers as they move from their late 20s to age 40.
Because of its large sample size, the LWF yields accurate measurements of annual wages and allows analyses that focus not only on median annual wages, but also on wages at the 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the earnings distribution. This feature is particularly important in light of the growth in income inequality observed in Canada since the early 1980s.
The study finds the degree of wage convergence that recent cohorts of young men have achieved relative to the 1978 cohort depends critically on which segments of the earnings distribution are considered. By the time they reached 40, young men who entered the labour market during the early 2000s and who were at the 75th or 90th percentile of the earnings distribution had higher annual wages than their counterparts who entered the labour market in the late 1970s. The opposite is true for young men who were at the 25th or 50th percentile of the earnings distribution.
This finding has important implications. It indicates that previous results regarding the deterioration in entry-level wages of young men and the convergence (or lack thereof) of their wages with those of previous cohorts must be nuanced.
The story for young women is simpler. Regardless of the segment of the earnings distribution considered, the annual wages at ages 39 to 40 and the cumulative annual wages generally increased across successive cohorts of young female employees.
The results of the study are useful for a variety of reasons. First, they make it clear that, collectively, young men have experienced a diverse set of trends as they progressed in their career, depending on their position in the earnings distribution. As such, the results highlight the usefulness of large data sets that allow rigorous analyses at the tails of the earnings distribution. Second, the numbers provided in the study quantify the degree to which the growing involvement of young women in the labour market has increased their cumulative earnings over the last few decades. On both aspects, they help improve one’s understanding of the youth labour market.
1 Introduction
Changes in the employment prospects of youth and in their transitions to adulthood have attracted considerable attention over the last few years in Canada. Several studies have documented the evolution of wages, employment rates and job types of young men and women. Other research has shown that key life events such as schooling completion, leaving one’s parents’ home, marriage and family formation now occur later than they did in the 1970s.
One key finding from previous studies is that the youth labour market has changed along several dimensions since the mid-1970s. For young individuals not enrolled in school, full-time jobs have generally become scarcer than they were during the mid-1970s (Morissette, Hou and Schellenberg 2015). In addition, the percentage of full-time jobs that are permanent fell (Morissette 2016).Note 1 Third, median real hourly wages of young men employed in full-time jobs grew little, if at all, from the early 1980s to the mid-2010s.Note 2 Along with other pieces of evidence from media reports, these facts have raised concerns that recent youth cohorts now experience less favourable earnings trajectories as they age than previous cohorts did 40 years ago.
Beaudry and Green (2000) examined this question for the first time in Canada several years ago. Using synthetic birth cohorts from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), they showed that cohorts of young Canadian men entering the labour market between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s had less favourable earnings trajectories than previous cohorts entering the labour market in the mid-1960s or early 1970s.Note 3 In contrast, university-educated young women who entered the labour market in the early 1990s had more favourable age–earnings profiles than their counterparts who did so in the mid-1960s or early 1970s.Note 4
This article revisits the issue of wage convergence with previous cohorts using more recent data drawn from larger data sets than those used in the aforementioned studies. The study combines three versions of Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Worker file (LWF) that cover the 1978-to-2015 period and measures the annual wages of young workers as they move from their late 20s to age 40.
The LWF uses records from the T4 Statement of Remuneration Paid to measure annual wages for a 10% random sample of Canadian workers.Note 5 Because of its large sample size, the LWF yields accurate measurements of annual wages and allows analyses that focus not only on median annual wages, but also on wages at the 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the earnings distribution. This feature is particularly important in light of the growth in income inequality observed in Canada since the early 1980s (Lemieux and Riddell 2015).Note 6
As will be shown below, one key finding of the study is that cross-cohort comparisons of age–earnings profiles of young men yield quite different conclusions, depending on the segment of the earnings distribution that is considered. This finding has important implications. It indicates that previous results regarding the deterioration in entry-level wages of young men and the convergence (or lack thereof) of their wages with those of previous cohorts must be nuanced.
2 Background
To provide some context, Chart 1 shows the evolution of the median real annual wages and salaries of men aged 25 to 34 and those aged 35 to 44 over the 1965-to-2015 period.Note 7 After experiencing robust wage growth from the mid-1960s to the late 1970s, both groups of men saw their median wages fall from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. The net result was that by 2015, median wages of men aged 25 to 34 were substantially lower than those of their counterparts of the same age in 1977. In contrast, the growth in earnings that men aged 35 to 44 experienced from the mid-1990s onwards brought back their earnings in 2015 to levels similar to the peaks observed in the late 1970s.
Because of changes in their occupational profile and movements towards full-time employment, women aged 25 to 34 and those aged 35 to 44 did not experience the same wage patterns. The median wages of women aged 35 to 44 grew steadily (Chart 2). By 2015, they earned more than twice as much as their counterparts did in the mid-1960s. Median wages of women aged 25 to 34 grew rapidly from the mid-1960s to the late 1970s but stagnated up until the late 1990s. They started rising again after 1997.
Data table for Chart 1
Men aged 25 to 34 | Men aged 35 to 44 | |
---|---|---|
2015 dollars | ||
1965 | 37,392 | 40,580 |
1966 | 38,630 | 41,798 |
1967 | 39,869 | 43,016 |
1968 | 41,347 | 44,990 |
1969 | 42,826 | 46,964 |
1970 | 44,582 | 49,562 |
1971 | 46,339 | 52,160 |
1972 | 47,426 | 54,918 |
1973 | 48,628 | 55,597 |
1974 | 48,321 | 56,588 |
1975 | 50,396 | 57,804 |
1976 | 52,900 | 61,100 |
1977 | 51,800 | 60,300 |
1978 | 51,400 | 60,700 |
1979 | 50,600 | 58,800 |
1980 | 51,200 | 60,700 |
1981 | 49,900 | 58,800 |
1982 | 45,900 | 57,700 |
1983 | 44,100 | 56,700 |
1984 | 44,600 | 57,600 |
1985 | 44,200 | 59,100 |
1986 | 44,200 | 57,900 |
1987 | 44,000 | 58,500 |
1988 | 44,500 | 59,800 |
1989 | 43,200 | 58,500 |
1990 | 42,000 | 56,100 |
1991 | 39,800 | 54,300 |
1992 | 39,200 | 54,300 |
1993 | 39,900 | 52,800 |
1994 | 39,600 | 54,700 |
1995 | 38,500 | 53,200 |
1996 | 37,900 | 53,200 |
1997 | 39,200 | 52,200 |
1998 | 39,200 | 54,100 |
1999 | 41,500 | 54,700 |
2000 | 42,800 | 55,600 |
2001 | 41,300 | 55,500 |
2002 | 42,300 | 54,600 |
2003 | 42,600 | 54,000 |
2004 | 42,800 | 55,500 |
2005 | 42,000 | 55,000 |
2006 | 41,100 | 54,900 |
2007 | 41,100 | 56,600 |
2008 | 44,400 | 57,700 |
2009 | 42,000 | 57,300 |
2010 | 43,100 | 57,800 |
2011 | 44,200 | 59,100 |
2012 | 43,500 | 58,300 |
2013 | 42,300 | 56,000 |
2014 | 43,000 | 59,100 |
2015 | 43,700 | 59,300 |
Sources: Statistics Canada, Survey of Consumer Finances and CANSIM table 206-0052. |
Data table for Chart 2
Women aged 25 to 34 | Women aged 35 to 44 | |
---|---|---|
2015 dollars | ||
1965 | 16,752 | 15,071 |
1966 | 17,588 | 16,443 |
1967 | 18,423 | 17,815 |
1968 | 19,410 | 18,547 |
1969 | 20,397 | 19,279 |
1970 | 21,575 | 19,768 |
1971 | 22,752 | 20,256 |
1972 | 22,326 | 20,875 |
1973 | 24,204 | 21,458 |
1974 | 25,127 | 23,295 |
1975 | 26,276 | 24,181 |
1976 | 26,500 | 24,300 |
1977 | 27,500 | 24,700 |
1978 | 27,000 | 25,200 |
1979 | 27,900 | 26,100 |
1980 | 28,500 | 25,900 |
1981 | 27,200 | 27,500 |
1982 | 27,700 | 26,000 |
1983 | 27,100 | 26,700 |
1984 | 27,100 | 28,400 |
1985 | 27,300 | 28,500 |
1986 | 27,900 | 28,900 |
1987 | 27,500 | 28,800 |
1988 | 26,800 | 29,500 |
1989 | 27,900 | 31,700 |
1990 | 26,500 | 30,300 |
1991 | 26,200 | 29,400 |
1992 | 27,000 | 31,300 |
1993 | 26,300 | 31,000 |
1994 | 25,900 | 31,000 |
1995 | 26,300 | 30,900 |
1996 | 26,500 | 31,300 |
1997 | 26,300 | 31,600 |
1998 | 27,100 | 32,500 |
1999 | 27,400 | 32,700 |
2000 | 27,300 | 33,200 |
2001 | 27,800 | 33,200 |
2002 | 28,200 | 33,000 |
2003 | 28,600 | 33,000 |
2004 | 29,000 | 32,600 |
2005 | 29,100 | 33,700 |
2006 | 30,600 | 33,700 |
2007 | 30,100 | 35,500 |
2008 | 30,800 | 35,000 |
2009 | 30,500 | 37,100 |
2010 | 30,700 | 38,000 |
2011 | 31,800 | 39,200 |
2012 | 29,000 | 37,800 |
2013 | 31,300 | 39,000 |
2014 | 29,400 | 41,100 |
2015 | 31,900 | 41,000 |
Sources: Statistics Canada, Survey of Consumer Finances and CANSIM table 206-0052. |
The drop in the real wages of young men that occurred from the early 1980s onwards varied markedly across segments of the earnings distribution. Median real annual wages of men aged 28 to 29 fell 27% from 1978 to 1996 (Chart 3 and Table 1). However, real annual wages of their counterparts at the 10th percentile of the earnings distribution fell 40%, more than four times the 9% drop observed for young men at the 90th percentile of the earnings distribution.
Data table for Chart 3
10th percentile | 25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | 90th percentile | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
index (1978=100) | |||||
1978 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
1979 | 103.4 | 100.7 | 99.5 | 100.2 | 100.6 |
1980 | 99.5 | 96.8 | 98.7 | 99.9 | 100.6 |
1981 | 95.0 | 93.7 | 96.7 | 99.0 | 100.2 |
1982 | 76.4 | 80.1 | 91.0 | 96.2 | 98.3 |
1983 | 66.8 | 70.7 | 86.8 | 94.1 | 96.7 |
1984 | 68.1 | 72.1 | 86.7 | 94.7 | 97.5 |
1985 | 71.9 | 73.1 | 86.3 | 94.1 | 97.5 |
1986 | 70.9 | 72.3 | 84.6 | 92.6 | 96.4 |
1987 | 72.5 | 72.9 | 84.3 | 91.6 | 95.7 |
1988 | 77.2 | 75.0 | 85.2 | 92.3 | 96.3 |
1989 | 76.1 | 74.6 | 84.1 | 92.0 | 96.1 |
1990 | 72.0 | 69.8 | 81.6 | 90.0 | 94.1 |
1991 | 60.0 | 60.9 | 76.0 | 86.1 | 90.8 |
1992 | 56.4 | 57.4 | 74.9 | 86.3 | 91.7 |
1993 | 56.0 | 56.7 | 73.0 | 84.4 | 91.0 |
1994 | 58.9 | 58.6 | 72.9 | 84.8 | 91.7 |
1995 | 60.6 | 59.7 | 73.0 | 83.9 | 91.1 |
1996 | 59.5 | 59.9 | 72.6 | 83.7 | 90.8 |
1997 | 62.3 | 63.0 | 74.4 | 84.8 | 92.5 |
1998 | 64.8 | 64.9 | 76.0 | 86.6 | 95.4 |
1999 | 68.0 | 67.3 | 77.3 | 87.5 | 96.3 |
2000 | 70.2 | 70.0 | 79.4 | 89.4 | 98.9 |
2001 | 70.6 | 68.9 | 79.4 | 90.3 | 99.8 |
2002 | 69.7 | 68.4 | 78.7 | 89.8 | 99.8 |
2003 | 67.1 | 66.3 | 78.4 | 89.8 | 100.2 |
2004 | 65.9 | 65.9 | 78.3 | 90.4 | 100.3 |
2005 | 69.3 | 67.3 | 79.1 | 90.9 | 101.3 |
2006 | 71.6 | 69.3 | 80.5 | 92.7 | 103.4 |
2007 | 72.9 | 70.5 | 81.2 | 93.2 | 104.6 |
2008 | 74.6 | 71.8 | 82.2 | 94.9 | 106.8 |
2009 | 67.9 | 68.4 | 80.6 | 94.6 | 106.2 |
2010 | 69.0 | 67.2 | 79.8 | 94.7 | 106.7 |
2011 | 72.5 | 69.1 | 80.5 | 95.7 | 108.7 |
2012 | 75.0 | 71.9 | 83.1 | 98.5 | 112.3 |
2013 | 77.8 | 73.8 | 84.1 | 100.3 | 114.6 |
2014 | 79.5 | 73.9 | 84.1 | 100.3 | 116.5 |
2015 | 75.2 | 73.5 | 84.3 | 100.3 | 114.6 |
Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Data table for Chart 4
10th percentile | 25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | 90th percentile | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
index (1978=100) | |||||
1978 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
1979 | 102.9 | 103.8 | 100.0 | 99.6 | 98.6 |
1980 | 101.2 | 104.2 | 101.1 | 100.5 | 99.6 |
1981 | 102.9 | 101.7 | 98.8 | 100.0 | 98.9 |
1982 | 101.1 | 101.6 | 98.7 | 100.2 | 99.8 |
1983 | 99.2 | 97.4 | 97.5 | 99.0 | 97.7 |
1984 | 101.4 | 99.2 | 96.7 | 98.6 | 97.8 |
1985 | 99.5 | 96.9 | 95.3 | 97.2 | 96.3 |
1986 | 99.1 | 95.4 | 93.9 | 96.5 | 95.8 |
1987 | 100.7 | 95.6 | 93.5 | 96.6 | 95.8 |
1988 | 105.8 | 99.5 | 95.0 | 97.4 | 96.7 |
1989 | 105.2 | 99.2 | 94.9 | 97.7 | 97.2 |
1990 | 105.7 | 98.8 | 94.9 | 98.7 | 98.5 |
1991 | 104.4 | 96.6 | 92.3 | 98.0 | 97.9 |
1992 | 107.8 | 100.7 | 94.4 | 100.4 | 101.1 |
1993 | 106.6 | 100.4 | 94.5 | 100.2 | 99.9 |
1994 | 104.6 | 101.6 | 95.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
1995 | 106.2 | 101.9 | 93.9 | 99.4 | 97.7 |
1996 | 108.1 | 101.4 | 93.1 | 99.4 | 97.4 |
1997 | 111.4 | 104.5 | 93.9 | 98.8 | 97.1 |
1998 | 115.0 | 107.7 | 95.2 | 100.7 | 100.1 |
1999 | 118.4 | 109.7 | 96.3 | 102.0 | 101.8 |
2000 | 120.8 | 110.6 | 98.5 | 105.2 | 104.3 |
2001 | 118.4 | 111.0 | 101.0 | 107.5 | 106.9 |
2002 | 113.9 | 108.1 | 99.3 | 107.1 | 107.3 |
2003 | 118.4 | 107.6 | 99.3 | 107.4 | 108.2 |
2004 | 116.8 | 107.4 | 99.9 | 107.5 | 109.1 |
2005 | 119.2 | 108.8 | 100.6 | 108.2 | 109.6 |
2006 | 116.9 | 111.1 | 103.1 | 110.8 | 112.0 |
2007 | 121.4 | 114.8 | 105.4 | 112.4 | 113.7 |
2008 | 124.9 | 116.3 | 107.2 | 114.4 | 116.1 |
2009 | 125.4 | 115.8 | 106.6 | 115.6 | 118.8 |
2010 | 126.0 | 117.2 | 106.0 | 114.5 | 118.1 |
2011 | 126.5 | 116.8 | 105.6 | 113.9 | 117.9 |
2012 | 126.4 | 117.5 | 106.2 | 114.0 | 118.3 |
2013 | 129.5 | 121.5 | 109.5 | 116.4 | 119.6 |
2014 | 132.4 | 121.5 | 109.2 | 116.6 | 119.9 |
2015 | 133.6 | 122.3 | 109.9 | 116.9 | 120.2 |
Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
While wages of young men generally increased after 1996 (with 2008-2009 being a notable exception), the gains experienced by those in the bottom half of the earnings distribution did not offset the losses they experienced earlier. For example, median annual wages were 15% lower in 2015 than they were in 1978. Only young men at the 75th percentile of the earnings distribution ended up having similar wages in 2015 and 1978. In contrast, young men at the 90th percentile earned 15% more in 2015 than their counterparts did in 1978. Wages of young women displayed more favourable patterns. By 2015, young women in all segments of the earnings distribution―especially those at the 10th percentile―earned higher wages than their counterparts did in 1978 (Chart 4 and Table 2).
By the time the 1996 cohort of young men turned 39 or 40 years old (in 2007), had their annual wages converged to those of the 1978 cohort (measured in 1989) or were they still lower? Did annual wages of the 2004 cohort of young men, measured at ages 39 to 40 in 2015, eventually exceed those of the 1978 cohort? The next section answers these questions.
3 Wages up to the age of 40
To answer these questions, synthetic birth cohorts are constructed. The 1978 cohort consists of paid workers who were aged 28 to 29 in 1978. The 2004 cohort consists of their counterparts who were aged 28 to 29 in 2004. Ten other cohorts (aged 28 to 29 in 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002) are constructed (see Appendix for details).Note 8
Each of these 12 cohorts is tracked over a 12-year period, i.e., from ages 28 to 29 to ages 39 to 40. For example, the 1978 cohort is tracked from 1978 to 1989, at which point its members are aged 39 to 40. Likewise, the 2004 cohort is tracked from 2004 to 2015, the latest year for which LWF data are currently available.
It is important to note that the composition of individuals within a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born paid workers move in or out of the labour market, immigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. Hence, the earnings trajectories obtained with these synthetic birth cohorts are not necessarily representative of those experienced by paid workers who were in the labour market for 12 consecutive years. Nevertheless, they provide valuable information. They measure the degree to which members of a given cohort of paid workers, taken collectively, fared well or not over a given 12-year period.Note 9
Table 3 and Chart 5 provide a first look at this issue. They show how median real annual wages of various cohorts of young male and female employees have evolved from ages 28 to 29 to ages 39 to 40.
Data table for Chart 5
1978 cohort | 1996 cohort | 2004 cohort | |
---|---|---|---|
2015 dollars | |||
28 to 29 | 49,861 | 36,213 | 39,026 |
29 to 30 | 51,554 | 39,364 | 41,563 |
30 to 31 | 52,951 | 42,054 | 44,321 |
31 to 32 | 53,408 | 44,307 | 46,575 |
32 to 33 | 52,462 | 46,486 | 48,603 |
33 to 34 | 52,845 | 47,632 | 49,515 |
34 to 35 | 54,737 | 48,183 | 50,966 |
35 to 36 | 56,080 | 49,261 | 52,589 |
36 to 37 | 56,756 | 50,684 | 54,757 |
37 to 38 | 57,524 | 52,043 | 56,553 |
38 to 39 | 59,597 | 53,583 | 57,948 |
39 to 40 | 59,916 | 54,717 | 58,699 |
Note: The composition of individuals within a given cohort may change over time. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Data table for Chart 6
1978 cohort | 1996 cohort | 2004 cohort | |
---|---|---|---|
2015 dollars | |||
28 to 29 | 31,395 | 18,809 | 20,677 |
29 to 30 | 33,533 | 21,084 | 22,898 |
30 to 31 | 34,435 | 23,541 | 24,896 |
31 to 32 | 34,680 | 25,026 | 26,434 |
32 to 33 | 31,658 | 26,859 | 28,021 |
33 to 34 | 30,847 | 27,376 | 27,856 |
34 to 35 | 32,516 | 27,828 | 28,985 |
35 to 36 | 34,266 | 28,188 | 30,361 |
36 to 37 | 35,066 | 29,334 | 31,748 |
37 to 38 | 36,021 | 30,415 | 32,563 |
38 to 39 | 37,883 | 31,563 | 33,764 |
39 to 40 | 37,833 | 32,228 | 34,000 |
Note: The composition of individuals within a given cohort may change over time. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Most of the numbers shown in Table 3 for young men can be summarized by Chart 5. Young men who entered the labour market in 1996 had, at ages 28 to 29, lower median annual wages than their counterparts in 1978. While wages of the 1996 cohort grew over time, they had not converged to those of the 1978 cohort by the time both cohorts were aged 39 to 40. In contrast, the median annual wages of young men who entered the workforce in 2004 had almost fully converged to those of the 1978 cohort at ages 39 to 40.
More generally, young men who entered the labour market after 1978 earned less than the 1978 cohort not only at ages 28 to 29 but also at ages 39 to 40. However, the difference was smaller for the 2002 and 2004 cohorts than it was for previous cohorts. As a result, median cumulative earnings over the first 12 years in the workforce were lower for the cohorts that entered the labour market after 1978. For example, median cumulative earnings of young men who entered the workforce from 1990 to 1996 were 15% lower than those of the 1978 cohort. In contrast, the 2002 and 2004 cohorts of young men had median cumulative earnings that were about 10% lower than those of the 1978 cohort.
Similar qualitative patterns are observed in Table 4 when the focus is on wages at the 10th percentile and in Table 5 and Chart 6 when the focus is on wages at the 25th percentile.Note 10 Cumulative earnings at the 25th percentile for young men who entered the workforce from 1990 to 1996 were 21% to 24% lower than those of young men who entered the workforce in 1978. The corresponding declines for the 2002 and 2004 cohorts varied between 17% and 18%.
In sum, young men who were in the lower half of the earnings distribution and belonged to the 1984-to-2004 cohorts had lower annual wages at ages 28 to 29 and ages 39 to 40 than their counterparts who were members of the 1978 cohort. As a result, their cumulative earnings were also lower.
A different story is observed in the upper half of the earnings distribution. Considering young men in the 75th percentile of the earnings distribution, those in the 1984-to-2004 cohorts had lower annual wages at ages 28 to 29 than their counterparts in the 1978 cohort. However, by the time they reached ages 39 to 40, young men in the 2002 and 2004 cohorts earned almost $8,000 more than those in the 1978 cohort (Table 6 and Chart 7). In fact, cumulative earnings of young men at the 75th percentile were 2% to 4% higher for the 2002 and 2004 cohorts than they were for the 1978 cohort.
Numbers at the 90th percentile provide an even sharper contrast. In this case, wages at ages 28 to 29 were roughly the same for members of the 2002 and 2004 cohorts and those of the 1978 cohort (Table 7). Because annual wages subsequently grew faster for the 2002 and 2004 cohorts than they did for the 1978 cohort, members of the 2002 and 2004 cohorts ended up, by the time they reached ages 39 to 40, earning roughly $20,000 more than their counterparts in the 1978 cohort (Chart 8). As a result, the more recent cohorts had cumulative earnings that were 12% to 15% higher than those of the 1978 cohort.
Taken together, Tables 3 to 7 and Charts 5 to 8 highlight an important finding: cross-cohort comparisons of age–earnings profiles of young men yield quite different conclusions, depending on the segment of the earnings distribution that is considered. Recent cohorts of young men―those aged 28 to 29 in 2002 or 2004―had lower cumulative earnings than those in the 1978 cohort at the 10th, 25th or 50th percentile but had higher cumulative earnings when the focus is on the 75th and 90th percentile.Note 11 Hence, while some young men are faring worse in the labour market than their counterparts did in the late 1970s, others are faring better.
On average, the 2002 and 2004 cohorts of young men earned more when they reached the ages of 39 and 40, than their counterparts did in the 1978 cohort (Table 8 and Chart 9). They also had higher average cumulative earnings. In contrast, the 1984-to-1998 cohorts earned less, on average, on a cumulative basis than the 1978 cohort.
The story for young women is simpler. Regardless of the segment of the earnings distribution considered, the annual wages at ages 39 to 40 and the cumulative annual wages generally increased across successive cohorts of young female employees.
There are several reasons why the cumulative earnings of young female employees evolved more favorably than those of their male counterparts since the mid- to late 1970s. First, young women increased their educational attainment―and thus, their ability to hold highly paid jobs―faster than young men over the last four decades. Second, as they became more career-oriented than previous generations, women aged 25 and over moved away from part-time jobs and increased their tenure with their employers since the mid-1970s. Both of these factors tended to increase their annual wages. Third, young women moved to better paid occupations, increasing their presence in fields of study such as business, life sciences and social sciences.
Data table for Chart 7
1978 cohort | 1996 cohort | 2004 cohort | |
---|---|---|---|
2015 dollars | |||
28 to 29 | 64,274 | 53,794 | 58,104 |
29 to 30 | 66,597 | 57,075 | 62,066 |
30 to 31 | 68,707 | 60,531 | 65,641 |
31 to 32 | 70,359 | 63,901 | 69,237 |
32 to 33 | 70,345 | 67,139 | 72,594 |
33 to 34 | 71,108 | 69,231 | 74,716 |
34 to 35 | 73,372 | 70,915 | 77,115 |
35 to 36 | 74,838 | 72,719 | 79,667 |
36 to 37 | 76,074 | 75,117 | 83,221 |
37 to 38 | 77,117 | 77,776 | 86,297 |
38 to 39 | 80,412 | 80,278 | 88,137 |
39 to 40 | 81,320 | 82,308 | 89,229 |
Note: The composition of individuals within a given cohort may change over time. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Data table for Chart 8
1978 cohort | 1996 cohort | 2004 cohort | |
---|---|---|---|
2015 dollars | |||
28 to 29 | 77,518 | 70,420 | 77,745 |
29 to 30 | 80,325 | 75,275 | 83,589 |
30 to 31 | 83,389 | 80,389 | 89,033 |
31 to 32 | 85,656 | 85,138 | 94,131 |
32 to 33 | 86,435 | 89,906 | 99,483 |
33 to 34 | 87,732 | 94,364 | 101,778 |
34 to 35 | 90,127 | 96,326 | 105,955 |
35 to 36 | 92,576 | 98,608 | 109,182 |
36 to 37 | 94,449 | 102,779 | 114,520 |
37 to 38 | 96,312 | 106,478 | 119,243 |
38 to 39 | 102,553 | 111,003 | 122,154 |
39 to 40 | 103,408 | 114,255 | 123,756 |
Note: The composition of individuals within a given cohort may change over time. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Data table for Chart 9
1978 cohort | 1996 cohort | 2004 cohort | |
---|---|---|---|
2015 dollars | |||
28 to 29 | 48,524 | 38,733 | 42,444 |
29 to 30 | 50,571 | 41,965 | 45,992 |
30 to 31 | 52,377 | 45,429 | 49,546 |
31 to 32 | 53,365 | 48,502 | 52,418 |
32 to 33 | 52,469 | 52,218 | 55,430 |
33 to 34 | 52,756 | 54,218 | 56,661 |
34 to 35 | 54,917 | 55,170 | 58,875 |
35 to 36 | 56,872 | 56,578 | 61,271 |
36 to 37 | 57,981 | 58,706 | 64,514 |
37 to 38 | 59,640 | 61,112 | 66,706 |
38 to 39 | 62,974 | 63,887 | 68,852 |
39 to 40 | 63,869 | 66,180 | 69,757 |
Note: The composition of individuals within a given cohort may change over time. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
4 Wages up to the age of 34
Because the results shown so far are based on tracking several cohorts over periods of 12 years, the most recent cohort that has been considered was aged 28 to 29 in 2004. To allow analyses that involve more recent cohorts, cohorts of paid workers are now followed over a shorter period, i.e., over 6 years. This allows a comparison of the 2010 cohort with previous cohorts. For compactness, only median and average cumulative earnings are considered.
The results show that the 2010 cohort of young men had, from ages 28 to 29 to ages 33 to 34, 12% lower median cumulative earnings than the 1978 cohort (Table 9 and Chart 10). However, average cumulative earnings of the 2010 cohort were slightly higher than those of the 1978 cohort, reflecting growing earnings dispersion across cohorts. In contrast, both average and median cumulative earnings of the 2010 cohort of young women are higher than those of their counterparts in the 1978 cohort (Chart 11).
Data table for Chart 10
Median | Average | |
---|---|---|
ratio | ||
1980 | 0.971 | 0.970 |
1982 | 0.933 | 0.942 |
1984 | 0.912 | 0.936 |
1986 | 0.886 | 0.919 |
1988 | 0.859 | 0.897 |
1990 | 0.819 | 0.866 |
1992 | 0.799 | 0.861 |
1994 | 0.803 | 0.883 |
1996 | 0.818 | 0.906 |
1998 | 0.833 | 0.931 |
2000 | 0.844 | 0.951 |
2002 | 0.855 | 0.962 |
2004 | 0.861 | 0.976 |
2006 | 0.872 | 0.992 |
2008 | 0.873 | 0.994 |
2010 | 0.883 | 1.015 |
Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Data table for Chart 11
Median | Average | |
---|---|---|
ratio | ||
1980 | 1.004 | 1.001 |
1982 | 0.993 | 0.996 |
1984 | 0.991 | 0.997 |
1986 | 0.973 | 0.990 |
1988 | 0.987 | 1.008 |
1990 | 0.989 | 1.015 |
1992 | 0.997 | 1.028 |
1994 | 1.019 | 1.052 |
1996 | 1.035 | 1.077 |
1998 | 1.037 | 1.098 |
2000 | 1.045 | 1.114 |
2002 | 1.068 | 1.137 |
2004 | 1.100 | 1.168 |
2006 | 1.133 | 1.206 |
2008 | 1.152 | 1.221 |
2010 | 1.157 | 1.232 |
Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
5 Conclusion
While it is well known that real wages of young men fell during the 1980s and 1990s, it was unclear whether the wages of cohorts that entered the labour market during the early 2000s eventually converged to those of earlier cohorts. Using data from Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Worker File, this study fills this gap.
The main finding is that the degree of wage convergence that recent cohorts of young men have achieved relative to the 1978 cohort depends critically on which segments of the earnings distribution are considered. By the time they reached 40, young men who entered the labour market during the early 2000s and who were at the 75th or 90th percentile of the earnings distribution had higher annual wages than their counterparts who entered the labour market in the late 1970s. The opposite is true for young men who were at the 25th or 50th percentile of the earnings distribution.
A few limitations must be noted. Because the LWF contains no data on educational attainment or immigration status, no disaggregation was performed by workers’ education level or immigration status. Hence, it was not possible to compare the evolution of the age–earnings profiles of highly educated young workers with that of their less educated counterparts.
Because the LWF starts in 1978, earnings trajectories of cohorts that entered the labour market during the 2000s could not be compared with those of their counterparts who entered the workforce during the mid-1960s or early 1970s. As Chart 1 suggests, it is conceivable that the late 1970s represented a relatively short-lived ‘golden era’ for labour market entry.Note 12 This possibility implies that the computation of unemployment-adjusted earnings trajectories would be a worthwhile exercise for future research.
Nevertheless, the results are useful for a variety of reasons. First, they make it clear that, collectively, young men have experienced a diverse set of trends as they progressed in their career, depending on their position in the earnings distribution. As such, the results highlight the usefulness of large data sets that allow rigorous analyses at the tails of the earnings distribution. Second, they quantify the degree to which the growing involvement of young women in the labour market has increased their cumulative earnings over the last few decades. On both aspects, they help improve one’s understanding of youth labour market.
6 Tables
Year | Percentile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
10th | 25th | 50th | 75th | 90th | |
2015 dollars | |||||
1978 | 12,717 | 31,395 | 49,861 | 64,274 | 77,518 |
1979 | 13,153 | 31,604 | 49,618 | 64,428 | 77,945 |
1980 | 12,649 | 30,383 | 49,236 | 64,231 | 77,990 |
1981 | 12,082 | 29,421 | 48,229 | 63,619 | 77,694 |
1982 | 9,714 | 25,163 | 45,365 | 61,861 | 76,207 |
1983 | 8,490 | 22,203 | 43,256 | 60,503 | 74,923 |
1984 | 8,663 | 22,634 | 43,222 | 60,860 | 75,603 |
1985 | 9,146 | 22,941 | 43,010 | 60,469 | 75,605 |
1986 | 9,013 | 22,683 | 42,177 | 59,508 | 74,730 |
1987 | 9,225 | 22,873 | 42,051 | 58,874 | 74,153 |
1988 | 9,823 | 23,549 | 42,472 | 59,315 | 74,649 |
1989 | 9,673 | 23,420 | 41,955 | 59,108 | 74,533 |
1990 | 9,159 | 21,905 | 40,683 | 57,819 | 72,958 |
1991 | 7,628 | 19,128 | 37,910 | 55,343 | 70,390 |
1992 | 7,174 | 18,034 | 37,355 | 55,464 | 71,105 |
1993 | 7,127 | 17,786 | 36,387 | 54,231 | 70,535 |
1994 | 7,491 | 18,396 | 36,355 | 54,473 | 71,103 |
1995 | 7,709 | 18,743 | 36,381 | 53,906 | 70,603 |
1996 | 7,565 | 18,809 | 36,213 | 53,794 | 70,420 |
1997 | 7,925 | 19,785 | 37,098 | 54,504 | 71,732 |
1998 | 8,246 | 20,382 | 37,912 | 55,671 | 73,917 |
1999 | 8,648 | 21,134 | 38,563 | 56,223 | 74,631 |
2000 | 8,928 | 21,989 | 39,597 | 57,432 | 76,659 |
2001 | 8,974 | 21,628 | 39,575 | 58,040 | 77,354 |
2002 | 8,867 | 21,459 | 39,251 | 57,689 | 77,331 |
2003 | 8,537 | 20,824 | 39,090 | 57,721 | 77,709 |
2004 | 8,383 | 20,677 | 39,026 | 58,104 | 77,745 |
2005 | 8,817 | 21,116 | 39,460 | 58,449 | 78,510 |
2006 | 9,106 | 21,747 | 40,130 | 59,595 | 80,186 |
2007 | 9,272 | 22,133 | 40,468 | 59,932 | 81,106 |
2008 | 9,482 | 22,531 | 40,971 | 61,002 | 82,764 |
2009 | 8,640 | 21,470 | 40,186 | 60,834 | 82,336 |
2010 | 8,775 | 21,100 | 39,790 | 60,884 | 82,700 |
2011 | 9,220 | 21,688 | 40,153 | 61,482 | 84,276 |
2012 | 9,535 | 22,576 | 41,412 | 63,319 | 87,062 |
2013 | 9,890 | 23,184 | 41,921 | 64,490 | 88,823 |
2014 | 10,112 | 23,210 | 41,920 | 64,446 | 90,319 |
2015 | 9,558 | 23,089 | 42,047 | 64,437 | 88,853 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Year | Percentile | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
10th | 25th | 50th | 75th | 90th | |
2015 dollars | |||||
1978 | 4,776 | 12,640 | 28,578 | 42,522 | 57,051 |
1979 | 4,914 | 13,119 | 28,564 | 42,348 | 56,256 |
1980 | 4,835 | 13,167 | 28,878 | 42,734 | 56,810 |
1981 | 4,915 | 12,859 | 28,241 | 42,523 | 56,429 |
1982 | 4,830 | 12,837 | 28,211 | 42,591 | 56,912 |
1983 | 4,737 | 12,313 | 27,850 | 42,101 | 55,762 |
1984 | 4,843 | 12,543 | 27,629 | 41,930 | 55,802 |
1985 | 4,749 | 12,243 | 27,232 | 41,346 | 54,937 |
1986 | 4,731 | 12,054 | 26,824 | 41,032 | 54,672 |
1987 | 4,808 | 12,087 | 26,730 | 41,072 | 54,670 |
1988 | 5,051 | 12,577 | 27,154 | 41,432 | 55,178 |
1989 | 5,022 | 12,533 | 27,122 | 41,560 | 55,435 |
1990 | 5,046 | 12,492 | 27,114 | 41,954 | 56,167 |
1991 | 4,984 | 12,210 | 26,386 | 41,668 | 55,880 |
1992 | 5,150 | 12,723 | 26,977 | 42,700 | 57,651 |
1993 | 5,092 | 12,693 | 27,017 | 42,620 | 56,994 |
1994 | 4,998 | 12,846 | 27,224 | 42,514 | 57,035 |
1995 | 5,071 | 12,877 | 26,833 | 42,284 | 55,714 |
1996 | 5,164 | 12,812 | 26,602 | 42,278 | 55,593 |
1997 | 5,322 | 13,206 | 26,833 | 42,013 | 55,371 |
1998 | 5,490 | 13,618 | 27,218 | 42,828 | 57,095 |
1999 | 5,653 | 13,861 | 27,525 | 43,389 | 58,062 |
2000 | 5,770 | 13,984 | 28,136 | 44,715 | 59,503 |
2001 | 5,654 | 14,027 | 28,870 | 45,696 | 60,969 |
2002 | 5,440 | 13,670 | 28,389 | 45,541 | 61,235 |
2003 | 5,656 | 13,596 | 28,374 | 45,683 | 61,742 |
2004 | 5,580 | 13,581 | 28,546 | 45,713 | 62,231 |
2005 | 5,694 | 13,749 | 28,748 | 46,016 | 62,529 |
2006 | 5,585 | 14,047 | 29,470 | 47,119 | 63,884 |
2007 | 5,797 | 14,506 | 30,118 | 47,788 | 64,882 |
2008 | 5,966 | 14,705 | 30,624 | 48,632 | 66,227 |
2009 | 5,989 | 14,641 | 30,461 | 49,149 | 67,753 |
2010 | 6,016 | 14,817 | 30,298 | 48,700 | 67,358 |
2011 | 6,040 | 14,762 | 30,164 | 48,442 | 67,243 |
2012 | 6,035 | 14,847 | 30,352 | 48,492 | 67,478 |
2013 | 6,186 | 15,360 | 31,298 | 49,485 | 68,223 |
2014 | 6,325 | 15,352 | 31,220 | 49,577 | 68,416 |
2015 | 6,381 | 15,462 | 31,420 | 49,702 | 68,603 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Ages | Cumulative earnings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 to 29 | 29 to 30 | 30 to 31 | 31 to 32 | 32 to 33 | 33 to 34 | 34 to 35 | 35 to 36 | 36 to 37 | 37 to 38 | 38 to 39 | 39 to 40 | ||
2015 dollars | |||||||||||||
Cohort of young men | |||||||||||||
1978 | 49,861 | 51,554 | 52,951 | 53,408 | 52,462 | 52,845 | 54,737 | 56,080 | 56,756 | 57,524 | 59,597 | 59,916 | 657,689 |
1984 | 43,222 | 45,249 | 46,671 | 48,453 | 50,425 | 51,416 | 51,291 | 50,299 | 51,731 | 51,885 | 53,251 | 53,678 | 597,572 |
1986 | 42,177 | 44,362 | 46,783 | 48,254 | 48,397 | 47,543 | 48,771 | 49,350 | 51,043 | 51,661 | 52,227 | 53,121 | 583,688 |
1988 | 42,472 | 44,470 | 45,267 | 44,562 | 45,813 | 46,449 | 48,352 | 49,299 | 50,310 | 51,312 | 52,728 | 53,796 | 574,833 |
1990 | 40,683 | 40,176 | 41,656 | 42,815 | 44,817 | 46,168 | 47,303 | 48,825 | 50,512 | 51,534 | 52,645 | 53,093 | 560,227 |
1992 | 37,355 | 38,601 | 41,217 | 42,772 | 44,224 | 46,110 | 47,839 | 49,470 | 50,786 | 51,601 | 52,057 | 52,490 | 554,521 |
1994 | 36,355 | 38,668 | 40,699 | 42,925 | 45,460 | 47,294 | 48,840 | 49,677 | 50,563 | 51,021 | 52,378 | 53,373 | 557,251 |
1996 | 36,213 | 39,364 | 42,054 | 44,307 | 46,486 | 47,632 | 48,183 | 49,261 | 50,684 | 52,043 | 53,583 | 54,717 | 564,527 |
1998 | 37,912 | 40,822 | 43,449 | 45,114 | 46,254 | 47,368 | 48,915 | 50,605 | 52,265 | 53,825 | 55,295 | 55,329 | 577,152 |
2000 | 39,597 | 41,719 | 43,241 | 44,675 | 46,609 | 48,413 | 50,584 | 52,241 | 53,804 | 53,613 | 55,034 | 56,168 | 585,698 |
2002 | 39,251 | 41,534 | 43,428 | 45,713 | 47,822 | 50,060 | 51,884 | 51,694 | 53,524 | 55,093 | 56,470 | 58,216 | 594,689 |
2004 | 39,026 | 41,563 | 44,321 | 46,575 | 48,603 | 49,515 | 50,966 | 52,589 | 54,757 | 56,553 | 57,948 | 58,699 | 601,114 |
Cohort of young women | |||||||||||||
1978 | 28,578 | 28,230 | 28,375 | 28,110 | 28,763 | 29,074 | 29,100 | 29,660 | 30,064 | 30,646 | 32,113 | 32,507 | 355,221 |
1984 | 27,629 | 27,749 | 27,911 | 28,062 | 28,795 | 29,385 | 29,747 | 29,911 | 31,613 | 31,858 | 32,928 | 33,344 | 358,931 |
1986 | 26,824 | 27,235 | 27,672 | 27,989 | 28,372 | 28,452 | 30,053 | 30,652 | 31,424 | 31,880 | 32,382 | 33,194 | 356,129 |
1988 | 27,154 | 27,449 | 27,892 | 27,672 | 29,123 | 29,604 | 30,338 | 30,809 | 31,479 | 32,208 | 33,293 | 34,160 | 361,181 |
1990 | 27,114 | 26,693 | 27,658 | 28,512 | 29,385 | 29,888 | 30,213 | 30,915 | 31,934 | 32,842 | 33,501 | 33,998 | 362,654 |
1992 | 26,977 | 27,395 | 28,129 | 28,654 | 29,295 | 30,240 | 31,346 | 32,276 | 32,809 | 33,632 | 33,876 | 34,809 | 369,437 |
1994 | 27,224 | 27,554 | 28,480 | 29,394 | 30,460 | 31,228 | 32,164 | 32,750 | 32,986 | 33,720 | 34,873 | 35,724 | 376,557 |
1996 | 26,602 | 28,009 | 29,118 | 30,235 | 31,161 | 31,917 | 31,853 | 32,709 | 33,681 | 34,404 | 35,765 | 37,367 | 382,821 |
1998 | 27,218 | 28,641 | 29,876 | 30,442 | 30,198 | 31,110 | 31,820 | 32,960 | 34,556 | 35,978 | 37,405 | 38,706 | 388,912 |
2000 | 28,136 | 29,394 | 29,223 | 29,752 | 30,682 | 31,665 | 33,003 | 34,377 | 35,870 | 37,420 | 38,122 | 38,866 | 396,511 |
2002 | 28,389 | 28,844 | 29,866 | 30,663 | 31,765 | 33,263 | 34,618 | 35,896 | 37,033 | 37,812 | 38,965 | 40,407 | 407,522 |
2004 | 28,546 | 29,656 | 30,563 | 31,935 | 33,038 | 34,527 | 35,259 | 36,310 | 37,560 | 39,076 | 40,174 | 41,308 | 417,951 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. The composition of individuals in a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born individuals move in or out of the labour market, emigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Ages | Cumulative earnings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 to 29 | 29 to 30 | 30 to 31 | 31 to 32 | 32 to 33 | 33 to 34 | 34 to 35 | 35 to 36 | 36 to 37 | 37 to 38 | 38 to 39 | 39 to 40 | ||
2015 dollars | |||||||||||||
Cohort of young men | |||||||||||||
1978 | 12,717 | 14,441 | 15,036 | 14,971 | 12,649 | 11,994 | 12,668 | 13,755 | 14,085 | 14,496 | 15,784 | 15,766 | 168,362 |
1984 | 8,663 | 9,618 | 10,309 | 11,102 | 11,921 | 12,405 | 12,320 | 10,730 | 10,794 | 10,960 | 12,216 | 12,693 | 133,732 |
1986 | 9,013 | 9,768 | 10,748 | 11,490 | 11,375 | 10,075 | 9,927 | 10,342 | 11,242 | 11,649 | 12,265 | 13,067 | 130,960 |
1988 | 9,823 | 10,311 | 10,388 | 9,552 | 9,506 | 9,720 | 10,425 | 11,139 | 11,414 | 12,415 | 13,327 | 13,834 | 131,854 |
1990 | 9,159 | 8,133 | 8,092 | 8,509 | 9,666 | 10,248 | 10,772 | 11,274 | 12,438 | 13,055 | 13,541 | 13,992 | 128,878 |
1992 | 7,174 | 7,460 | 8,427 | 9,070 | 9,638 | 10,608 | 11,233 | 12,120 | 12,722 | 13,088 | 13,263 | 13,293 | 128,097 |
1994 | 7,491 | 8,258 | 8,700 | 9,751 | 10,753 | 11,089 | 12,131 | 12,300 | 12,621 | 12,802 | 13,123 | 13,669 | 132,687 |
1996 | 7,565 | 8,403 | 9,390 | 10,257 | 11,231 | 11,263 | 11,457 | 11,491 | 12,092 | 12,563 | 13,325 | 13,749 | 132,786 |
1998 | 8,246 | 9,076 | 10,336 | 10,377 | 10,847 | 11,043 | 11,469 | 12,126 | 12,959 | 13,625 | 13,980 | 13,038 | 137,124 |
2000 | 8,928 | 9,429 | 9,827 | 10,374 | 11,105 | 11,660 | 12,607 | 13,072 | 13,697 | 12,688 | 13,245 | 14,160 | 140,794 |
2002 | 8,867 | 9,053 | 9,735 | 10,644 | 11,726 | 12,234 | 12,628 | 11,898 | 13,040 | 14,211 | 14,721 | 15,011 | 143,767 |
2004 | 8,383 | 9,609 | 10,492 | 11,184 | 11,940 | 11,620 | 12,212 | 13,344 | 14,242 | 14,433 | 15,370 | 15,381 | 148,211 |
Cohort of young women | |||||||||||||
1978 | 4,776 | 4,710 | 4,658 | 4,814 | 5,025 | 4,952 | 5,059 | 5,254 | 5,502 | 5,456 | 6,263 | 6,638 | 63,107 |
1984 | 4,843 | 4,806 | 4,884 | 5,052 | 5,338 | 5,541 | 5,749 | 5,583 | 5,921 | 6,307 | 6,319 | 6,601 | 66,944 |
1986 | 4,731 | 4,862 | 4,968 | 5,228 | 5,348 | 5,258 | 5,698 | 5,755 | 6,134 | 6,298 | 6,368 | 6,773 | 67,421 |
1988 | 5,051 | 5,052 | 5,253 | 5,090 | 5,414 | 5,455 | 5,673 | 5,957 | 5,985 | 6,403 | 6,938 | 7,459 | 69,730 |
1990 | 5,046 | 4,939 | 5,093 | 5,324 | 5,426 | 5,635 | 5,723 | 6,039 | 6,404 | 6,852 | 7,120 | 7,476 | 71,077 |
1992 | 5,150 | 5,224 | 5,327 | 5,470 | 5,595 | 6,012 | 6,379 | 6,487 | 6,836 | 7,041 | 7,025 | 7,728 | 74,272 |
1994 | 4,998 | 5,240 | 5,386 | 5,792 | 5,965 | 6,194 | 6,330 | 6,670 | 6,816 | 7,058 | 7,432 | 7,829 | 75,710 |
1996 | 5,164 | 5,476 | 5,843 | 6,112 | 6,295 | 6,362 | 6,163 | 6,404 | 6,808 | 7,336 | 7,700 | 8,118 | 77,781 |
1998 | 5,490 | 5,785 | 5,988 | 5,833 | 5,822 | 6,243 | 6,259 | 6,487 | 6,989 | 7,457 | 8,078 | 8,476 | 78,905 |
2000 | 5,770 | 5,623 | 5,490 | 5,829 | 5,967 | 6,183 | 6,576 | 6,805 | 7,198 | 7,857 | 8,280 | 8,711 | 80,289 |
2002 | 5,440 | 5,585 | 5,640 | 5,825 | 6,179 | 6,451 | 6,754 | 7,089 | 7,607 | 8,109 | 8,676 | 9,279 | 82,633 |
2004 | 5,580 | 5,817 | 5,925 | 6,088 | 6,496 | 6,723 | 7,121 | 7,710 | 7,929 | 8,568 | 8,754 | 9,523 | 86,234 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. The composition of individuals in a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born individuals move in or out of the labour market, emigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Ages | Cumulative earnings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 to 29 | 29 to 30 | 30 to 31 | 31 to 32 | 32 to 33 | 33 to 34 | 34 to 35 | 35 to 36 | 36 to 37 | 37 to 38 | 38 to 39 | 39 to 40 | ||
2015 dollars | |||||||||||||
Cohort of young men | |||||||||||||
1978 | 31,395 | 33,533 | 34,435 | 34,680 | 31,658 | 30,847 | 32,516 | 34,266 | 35,066 | 36,021 | 37,883 | 37,833 | 410,132 |
1984 | 22,634 | 24,512 | 25,861 | 27,650 | 29,372 | 30,318 | 29,906 | 28,164 | 28,377 | 28,806 | 30,204 | 30,934 | 336,737 |
1986 | 22,683 | 24,499 | 26,643 | 27,860 | 27,854 | 26,096 | 26,325 | 26,795 | 28,203 | 29,380 | 29,854 | 31,232 | 327,424 |
1988 | 23,549 | 25,250 | 25,391 | 23,858 | 24,133 | 24,970 | 26,407 | 27,706 | 28,566 | 29,649 | 31,251 | 32,479 | 323,208 |
1990 | 21,905 | 20,738 | 20,981 | 22,156 | 23,973 | 25,586 | 26,528 | 27,902 | 29,344 | 30,602 | 31,612 | 31,976 | 313,302 |
1992 | 18,034 | 19,265 | 21,453 | 22,966 | 24,158 | 26,086 | 27,640 | 28,969 | 30,328 | 30,792 | 31,021 | 31,019 | 311,731 |
1994 | 18,396 | 20,197 | 21,515 | 23,857 | 25,937 | 27,250 | 28,614 | 29,205 | 29,638 | 30,027 | 30,905 | 31,671 | 317,212 |
1996 | 18,809 | 21,084 | 23,541 | 25,026 | 26,859 | 27,376 | 27,828 | 28,188 | 29,334 | 30,415 | 31,563 | 32,228 | 322,251 |
1998 | 20,382 | 22,725 | 24,651 | 25,482 | 26,035 | 26,875 | 28,024 | 29,083 | 30,293 | 31,438 | 32,424 | 31,705 | 329,118 |
2000 | 21,989 | 23,339 | 24,135 | 24,904 | 26,386 | 27,973 | 29,220 | 30,657 | 31,527 | 30,234 | 31,647 | 32,320 | 334,332 |
2002 | 21,459 | 22,359 | 23,975 | 25,652 | 27,209 | 28,800 | 29,815 | 28,780 | 30,730 | 31,773 | 33,073 | 33,780 | 337,405 |
2004 | 20,677 | 22,898 | 24,896 | 26,434 | 28,021 | 27,856 | 28,985 | 30,361 | 31,748 | 32,563 | 33,764 | 34,000 | 342,203 |
Cohort of young women | |||||||||||||
1978 | 12,640 | 12,686 | 12,738 | 12,934 | 13,206 | 13,121 | 13,325 | 13,769 | 14,127 | 14,335 | 15,822 | 16,357 | 165,060 |
1984 | 12,543 | 12,364 | 12,513 | 12,925 | 13,303 | 13,735 | 14,080 | 14,184 | 14,855 | 15,292 | 15,986 | 16,568 | 168,348 |
1986 | 12,054 | 12,220 | 12,687 | 13,123 | 13,172 | 13,225 | 14,155 | 14,402 | 14,873 | 15,559 | 15,965 | 16,745 | 168,181 |
1988 | 12,577 | 12,641 | 12,959 | 12,876 | 13,451 | 13,652 | 14,278 | 14,750 | 14,897 | 15,703 | 16,762 | 17,703 | 172,249 |
1990 | 12,492 | 12,258 | 12,726 | 13,223 | 13,684 | 14,136 | 14,285 | 14,902 | 15,665 | 16,353 | 17,290 | 17,588 | 174,602 |
1992 | 12,723 | 12,953 | 13,348 | 13,615 | 13,986 | 14,733 | 15,498 | 16,142 | 16,767 | 17,091 | 17,242 | 18,049 | 182,145 |
1994 | 12,846 | 13,192 | 13,678 | 14,191 | 15,055 | 15,436 | 15,925 | 16,398 | 16,772 | 17,206 | 17,953 | 18,688 | 187,339 |
1996 | 12,812 | 13,660 | 14,421 | 15,166 | 15,415 | 15,777 | 15,395 | 15,944 | 16,593 | 17,472 | 18,424 | 19,596 | 190,677 |
1998 | 13,618 | 14,309 | 15,000 | 14,837 | 14,651 | 15,175 | 15,643 | 16,407 | 17,464 | 18,430 | 19,516 | 20,141 | 195,192 |
2000 | 13,984 | 14,217 | 13,684 | 14,389 | 14,713 | 15,608 | 16,265 | 17,143 | 17,963 | 19,322 | 19,829 | 20,904 | 198,021 |
2002 | 13,670 | 13,702 | 14,222 | 14,772 | 15,611 | 16,467 | 17,303 | 17,982 | 18,853 | 19,808 | 20,809 | 21,936 | 205,136 |
2004 | 13,581 | 14,198 | 14,846 | 15,370 | 16,310 | 16,860 | 17,646 | 18,745 | 19,610 | 20,619 | 21,299 | 22,376 | 211,460 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. The composition of individuals in a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born individuals move in or out of the labour market, emigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Ages | Cumulative earnings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 to 29 | 29 to 30 | 30 to 31 | 31 to 32 | 32 to 33 | 33 to 34 | 34 to 35 | 35 to 36 | 36 to 37 | 37 to 38 | 38 to 39 | 39 to 40 | ||
2015 dollars | |||||||||||||
Cohort of young men | |||||||||||||
1978 | 64,274 | 66,597 | 68,707 | 70,359 | 70,345 | 71,108 | 73,372 | 74,838 | 76,074 | 77,117 | 80,412 | 81,320 | 874,525 |
1984 | 60,860 | 63,110 | 64,595 | 66,412 | 68,797 | 70,392 | 70,598 | 70,467 | 72,488 | 73,191 | 75,150 | 75,761 | 831,822 |
1986 | 59,508 | 61,601 | 64,347 | 66,210 | 66,920 | 66,744 | 69,040 | 69,815 | 72,193 | 73,251 | 74,424 | 76,614 | 820,668 |
1988 | 59,315 | 61,881 | 63,018 | 62,994 | 65,178 | 66,192 | 68,871 | 70,260 | 71,547 | 73,696 | 75,750 | 77,472 | 816,173 |
1990 | 57,819 | 58,072 | 60,445 | 61,839 | 64,372 | 66,153 | 67,628 | 70,119 | 72,401 | 74,345 | 76,294 | 77,410 | 806,896 |
1992 | 55,464 | 56,798 | 59,529 | 61,482 | 63,441 | 66,168 | 68,842 | 71,363 | 73,643 | 74,899 | 76,169 | 77,480 | 805,278 |
1994 | 54,473 | 56,685 | 59,508 | 62,432 | 65,532 | 68,138 | 70,848 | 72,589 | 74,492 | 75,738 | 77,637 | 79,757 | 817,830 |
1996 | 53,794 | 57,075 | 60,531 | 63,901 | 67,139 | 69,231 | 70,915 | 72,719 | 75,117 | 77,776 | 80,278 | 82,308 | 830,784 |
1998 | 55,671 | 59,503 | 63,037 | 65,710 | 67,791 | 69,753 | 72,313 | 75,355 | 78,228 | 80,704 | 83,179 | 84,359 | 855,603 |
2000 | 57,432 | 60,874 | 63,437 | 65,649 | 68,377 | 71,549 | 74,877 | 78,113 | 80,984 | 82,084 | 83,866 | 85,348 | 872,589 |
2002 | 57,689 | 60,720 | 63,724 | 67,201 | 70,922 | 74,054 | 77,593 | 78,795 | 81,229 | 83,348 | 86,342 | 89,103 | 890,720 |
2004 | 58,104 | 62,066 | 65,641 | 69,237 | 72,594 | 74,716 | 77,115 | 79,667 | 83,221 | 86,297 | 88,137 | 89,229 | 906,023 |
Cohort of young women | |||||||||||||
1978 | 42,522 | 42,807 | 43,750 | 43,732 | 44,779 | 45,118 | 45,752 | 46,060 | 47,090 | 47,485 | 48,846 | 49,709 | 547,650 |
1984 | 41,930 | 42,490 | 42,901 | 43,476 | 44,343 | 45,269 | 46,454 | 46,384 | 48,657 | 49,003 | 50,258 | 50,507 | 551,672 |
1986 | 41,032 | 41,910 | 42,757 | 43,591 | 44,514 | 44,599 | 46,874 | 47,376 | 48,437 | 48,918 | 49,426 | 50,366 | 549,799 |
1988 | 41,432 | 42,477 | 43,607 | 43,937 | 46,117 | 46,327 | 47,507 | 48,109 | 48,661 | 49,646 | 50,941 | 52,371 | 561,132 |
1990 | 41,954 | 42,379 | 44,223 | 44,762 | 46,030 | 46,706 | 47,262 | 48,378 | 49,849 | 50,893 | 52,474 | 52,474 | 567,385 |
1992 | 42,700 | 43,260 | 44,365 | 44,869 | 45,612 | 47,080 | 48,532 | 49,702 | 51,325 | 51,854 | 52,843 | 53,735 | 575,878 |
1994 | 42,514 | 43,356 | 44,404 | 45,597 | 47,241 | 48,897 | 50,737 | 51,151 | 52,001 | 52,907 | 54,405 | 55,653 | 588,865 |
1996 | 42,278 | 43,608 | 45,460 | 47,209 | 49,127 | 50,008 | 50,492 | 51,622 | 52,992 | 54,405 | 56,393 | 58,432 | 602,025 |
1998 | 42,828 | 44,974 | 47,070 | 48,182 | 48,837 | 49,940 | 51,266 | 52,734 | 55,195 | 57,225 | 59,119 | 61,578 | 618,947 |
2000 | 44,715 | 46,843 | 47,489 | 48,363 | 49,644 | 51,141 | 52,889 | 55,270 | 57,184 | 59,903 | 60,902 | 62,617 | 636,960 |
2002 | 45,541 | 46,509 | 47,898 | 49,137 | 51,205 | 53,422 | 55,278 | 57,652 | 58,906 | 60,396 | 62,250 | 64,824 | 653,018 |
2004 | 45,713 | 47,436 | 49,057 | 51,042 | 52,798 | 55,332 | 56,309 | 58,070 | 59,800 | 62,394 | 64,143 | 66,220 | 668,313 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. The composition of individuals in a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born individuals move in or out of the labour market, emigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Ages | Cumulative earnings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 to 29 | 29 to 30 | 30 to 31 | 31 to 32 | 32 to 33 | 33 to 34 | 34 to 35 | 35 to 36 | 36 to 37 | 37 to 38 | 38 to 39 | 39 to 40 | ||
2015 dollars | |||||||||||||
Cohort of young men | |||||||||||||
1978 | 77,518 | 80,325 | 83,389 | 85,656 | 86,435 | 87,732 | 90,127 | 92,576 | 94,449 | 96,312 | 102,553 | 103,408 | 1,080,481 |
1984 | 75,603 | 78,144 | 80,235 | 82,607 | 86,228 | 88,393 | 90,023 | 90,416 | 92,879 | 93,858 | 96,261 | 98,067 | 1,052,716 |
1986 | 74,730 | 77,389 | 80,728 | 83,539 | 84,884 | 85,331 | 88,201 | 89,582 | 92,849 | 94,913 | 96,587 | 100,389 | 1,049,124 |
1988 | 74,649 | 77,724 | 79,845 | 80,499 | 83,479 | 84,967 | 88,212 | 90,639 | 93,045 | 96,872 | 101,536 | 103,703 | 1,055,168 |
1990 | 72,958 | 74,203 | 77,335 | 79,231 | 82,912 | 85,377 | 88,127 | 92,026 | 96,676 | 100,220 | 103,605 | 106,296 | 1,058,967 |
1992 | 71,105 | 73,641 | 77,561 | 80,401 | 83,166 | 87,171 | 92,127 | 95,630 | 99,954 | 102,842 | 104,584 | 105,765 | 1,073,948 |
1994 | 71,103 | 74,480 | 77,716 | 81,790 | 87,332 | 91,089 | 95,844 | 98,863 | 101,267 | 102,935 | 106,047 | 109,285 | 1,097,751 |
1996 | 70,420 | 75,275 | 80,389 | 85,138 | 89,906 | 94,364 | 96,326 | 98,608 | 102,779 | 106,478 | 111,003 | 114,255 | 1,124,940 |
1998 | 73,917 | 79,518 | 85,143 | 89,346 | 92,003 | 94,666 | 98,792 | 103,147 | 107,986 | 111,707 | 116,248 | 116,864 | 1,169,336 |
2000 | 76,659 | 81,460 | 85,397 | 88,312 | 92,886 | 97,555 | 102,204 | 106,791 | 111,064 | 112,792 | 115,938 | 118,222 | 1,189,281 |
2002 | 77,331 | 81,194 | 85,959 | 91,062 | 96,659 | 101,395 | 106,670 | 107,071 | 110,747 | 114,224 | 119,072 | 123,713 | 1,215,097 |
2004 | 77,745 | 83,589 | 89,033 | 94,131 | 99,483 | 101,778 | 105,955 | 109,182 | 114,520 | 119,243 | 122,154 | 123,756 | 1,240,569 |
Cohort of young women | |||||||||||||
1978 | 57,051 | 57,288 | 59,235 | 60,315 | 62,271 | 62,367 | 63,365 | 64,372 | 64,878 | 66,541 | 68,268 | 69,062 | 755,012 |
1984 | 55,802 | 56,732 | 57,500 | 58,550 | 60,518 | 61,715 | 63,147 | 63,656 | 66,822 | 67,496 | 69,093 | 69,351 | 750,382 |
1986 | 54,672 | 56,442 | 57,963 | 59,192 | 60,665 | 61,129 | 64,288 | 64,599 | 66,386 | 66,969 | 68,146 | 69,664 | 750,115 |
1988 | 55,178 | 56,882 | 58,746 | 59,828 | 62,475 | 63,390 | 64,620 | 65,139 | 66,509 | 67,940 | 70,659 | 72,449 | 763,815 |
1990 | 56,167 | 57,103 | 59,672 | 60,386 | 62,199 | 62,917 | 64,278 | 65,941 | 68,605 | 70,093 | 73,720 | 74,042 | 775,124 |
1992 | 57,651 | 58,443 | 59,794 | 60,346 | 61,731 | 63,960 | 66,847 | 68,750 | 72,020 | 73,148 | 75,262 | 76,413 | 794,364 |
1994 | 57,035 | 57,811 | 59,808 | 61,638 | 64,354 | 66,611 | 69,992 | 71,397 | 73,413 | 74,988 | 77,311 | 79,530 | 813,888 |
1996 | 55,593 | 57,523 | 60,682 | 63,244 | 67,119 | 68,556 | 70,617 | 72,805 | 75,331 | 77,658 | 80,682 | 83,232 | 833,043 |
1998 | 57,095 | 60,033 | 63,797 | 65,928 | 67,855 | 69,533 | 72,110 | 74,772 | 78,441 | 81,542 | 84,356 | 87,917 | 863,379 |
2000 | 59,503 | 62,532 | 64,684 | 66,725 | 69,561 | 72,026 | 75,075 | 78,293 | 81,084 | 85,213 | 87,077 | 89,359 | 891,132 |
2002 | 61,235 | 63,727 | 66,287 | 68,790 | 71,773 | 74,456 | 78,353 | 82,102 | 83,957 | 85,777 | 88,421 | 91,792 | 916,670 |
2004 | 62,231 | 65,168 | 67,921 | 71,293 | 74,460 | 78,355 | 80,023 | 82,364 | 84,669 | 88,422 | 89,786 | 92,208 | 936,900 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. The composition of individuals in a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born individuals move in or out of the labour market, emigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Ages | Cumulative earnings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28 to 29 | 29 to 30 | 30 to 31 | 31 to 32 | 32 to 33 | 33 to 34 | 34 to 35 | 35 to 36 | 36 to 37 | 37 to 38 | 38 to 39 | 39 to 40 | ||
2015 dollars | |||||||||||||
Cohort of young men | |||||||||||||
1978 | 48,524 | 50,571 | 52,377 | 53,365 | 52,469 | 52,756 | 54,917 | 56,872 | 57,981 | 59,640 | 62,974 | 63,869 | 666,315 |
1984 | 43,360 | 45,472 | 47,226 | 49,170 | 51,716 | 53,368 | 53,351 | 52,579 | 54,120 | 54,797 | 56,860 | 57,882 | 619,900 |
1986 | 42,939 | 45,140 | 47,847 | 49,640 | 49,967 | 49,382 | 50,902 | 52,251 | 54,515 | 55,690 | 57,450 | 60,068 | 615,791 |
1988 | 43,416 | 45,538 | 46,471 | 46,177 | 47,571 | 48,962 | 51,185 | 52,858 | 54,920 | 57,839 | 60,330 | 62,699 | 617,966 |
1990 | 41,771 | 41,719 | 43,592 | 44,823 | 47,330 | 49,296 | 51,121 | 54,298 | 57,164 | 59,220 | 62,078 | 63,250 | 615,662 |
1992 | 39,160 | 40,666 | 43,358 | 45,401 | 47,751 | 50,728 | 53,494 | 56,080 | 59,313 | 60,456 | 61,456 | 61,787 | 619,650 |
1994 | 38,889 | 41,404 | 43,695 | 46,845 | 50,224 | 52,752 | 56,184 | 57,426 | 58,140 | 59,097 | 61,440 | 63,853 | 629,949 |
1996 | 38,733 | 41,965 | 45,429 | 48,502 | 52,218 | 54,218 | 55,170 | 56,578 | 58,706 | 61,112 | 63,887 | 66,180 | 642,697 |
1998 | 40,885 | 44,336 | 48,092 | 50,136 | 51,946 | 53,386 | 55,999 | 59,072 | 61,746 | 63,937 | 65,974 | 65,835 | 661,344 |
2000 | 43,108 | 45,993 | 48,211 | 49,568 | 52,604 | 55,275 | 58,750 | 61,489 | 63,560 | 63,795 | 66,094 | 67,684 | 676,133 |
2002 | 42,832 | 45,032 | 47,986 | 51,003 | 54,312 | 57,133 | 59,831 | 59,719 | 62,464 | 64,475 | 66,604 | 69,196 | 680,587 |
2004 | 42,444 | 45,992 | 49,546 | 52,418 | 55,430 | 56,661 | 58,875 | 61,271 | 64,514 | 66,706 | 68,852 | 69,757 | 692,465 |
Cohort of young women | |||||||||||||
1978 | 29,542 | 29,646 | 30,360 | 30,545 | 31,424 | 31,645 | 32,057 | 32,734 | 33,212 | 33,962 | 35,508 | 35,988 | 386,623 |
1984 | 29,169 | 29,517 | 29,895 | 30,453 | 31,436 | 32,219 | 32,880 | 32,983 | 34,654 | 35,095 | 36,060 | 36,469 | 390,831 |
1986 | 28,544 | 29,172 | 30,086 | 30,749 | 31,301 | 31,521 | 33,208 | 33,697 | 34,600 | 35,160 | 35,753 | 36,752 | 390,542 |
1988 | 29,025 | 29,708 | 30,472 | 30,687 | 32,173 | 32,592 | 33,522 | 34,132 | 34,923 | 35,896 | 37,435 | 38,923 | 399,488 |
1990 | 29,168 | 29,333 | 30,743 | 31,372 | 32,251 | 32,988 | 33,644 | 34,649 | 36,226 | 37,291 | 38,829 | 39,231 | 405,725 |
1992 | 29,786 | 30,133 | 30,939 | 31,449 | 32,304 | 33,669 | 35,423 | 36,382 | 37,991 | 38,484 | 39,159 | 39,870 | 415,589 |
1994 | 29,555 | 30,176 | 31,280 | 32,539 | 34,052 | 35,171 | 36,774 | 37,478 | 38,206 | 38,765 | 40,339 | 41,704 | 426,039 |
1996 | 29,241 | 30,594 | 32,304 | 33,745 | 35,302 | 36,169 | 36,375 | 37,488 | 38,655 | 39,977 | 41,662 | 43,488 | 434,999 |
1998 | 30,177 | 31,876 | 33,723 | 34,595 | 34,852 | 35,932 | 37,082 | 38,591 | 40,531 | 42,450 | 43,957 | 45,461 | 449,227 |
2000 | 31,509 | 32,940 | 33,307 | 34,163 | 35,388 | 36,713 | 38,309 | 40,091 | 41,566 | 43,412 | 44,388 | 45,681 | 457,465 |
2002 | 31,786 | 32,598 | 33,874 | 34,965 | 36,653 | 38,294 | 39,935 | 41,425 | 42,559 | 43,790 | 45,311 | 47,281 | 468,472 |
2004 | 31,984 | 33,426 | 34,764 | 36,373 | 37,891 | 39,545 | 40,550 | 41,930 | 43,304 | 45,181 | 46,455 | 48,099 | 479,502 |
Note: Percentiles are gender-specific. The composition of individuals in a given cohort may change over time as some Canadian-born individuals move in or out of the labour market, emigrate to other countries or die and as some immigrants enter or leave a given cohort of paid workers. The sample consists of individuals who earned $10 million or less in a given year in 2015 dollars. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Cohort | Cumulative earnings | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Men | Women | |||
Median | Average | Median | Average | |
2015 dollars | ||||
1978 | 313,080 | 310,062 | 171,130 | 183,162 |
1980 | 303,968 | 300,856 | 171,830 | 183,421 |
1982 | 291,973 | 291,929 | 169,851 | 182,364 |
1984 | 285,437 | 290,311 | 169,530 | 182,690 |
1986 | 277,515 | 284,915 | 166,544 | 181,374 |
1988 | 269,035 | 278,135 | 168,894 | 184,657 |
1990 | 256,314 | 268,531 | 169,250 | 185,855 |
1992 | 250,279 | 267,064 | 170,690 | 188,281 |
1994 | 251,400 | 273,808 | 174,340 | 192,774 |
1996 | 256,056 | 281,065 | 177,042 | 197,355 |
1998 | 260,919 | 288,781 | 177,485 | 201,155 |
2000 | 264,254 | 294,761 | 178,853 | 204,018 |
2002 | 267,808 | 298,298 | 182,791 | 208,170 |
2004 | 269,602 | 302,491 | 188,265 | 213,983 |
2006 | 273,120 | 307,464 | 193,961 | 220,882 |
2008 | 273,323 | 308,226 | 197,122 | 223,646 |
2010 | 276,509 | 314,597 | 198,033 | 225,602 |
Note: Average cumulative earnings are computed for workers who earned less than $10 million in a given year. Source: Statistics Canada, Longitudinal Worker File. |
Appendix: Data and methods
The study uses data from Statistics Canada’s Longitudinal Worker File (LWF). Three versions of the LWF are used: the 10% versions of: (a) the 1978–1989 LWF, (b) the 1983–2010 LWF, and (c) the 1989–2015 LWF.
Throughout the article, the LWF data are generated using a four-step procedure:
Step 1: In all three versions of the LWF, first restrict the sample to jobs that pay least $500 in 1989 constant dollars (in line with Morissette [2004]) or, equivalently, $846.26 in 2015 dollars (i.e., $500*(126.6/74.8)). Second, convert job-level annual wages into 2015 dollars.
Step 2: Using the resulting job-level samples obtained from Step 1, use the 1989–2015 LWF and the 1983–2010 LWF and anchor the 1983-to-1988 data of the 1983–2010 LWF onto the 1989–2015 LWF, using a rescaling factor obtained from the common year 1989.Note 13
Step 3: Anchor the 1978-to-1982 job-level data of the 1978–1989 LWF onto the anchored 1983-to-1988 job-level data of the 1983–2010 LWF (obtained after Step 2) using a rescaling factor obtained from the common year 1983.
Step 4: Once the job-level data have been made consistent through Steps 2 and 3, compute individual-level real wages and salaries (by summing T4 real earnings across all jobs held by a person in a given year).
To perform synthetic cohort analyses for workers aged 28 to 29 at the beginning of the time interval considered, the following samples are selected:
Using the anchored version of the 1978–1989 LWF, the study tracks the wages of individuals aged 28 to 29:
- In 1978 over the 1978-to-1989 period = cohort 1 (12 years).
- In 1980 over the 1980-to-1989 period = cohort 2 (10 years).
- In 1982 over the 1982-to-1989 period = cohort 3 (8 years).
Using the anchored version of the 1983–2010 LWF, the study tracks the wages of individuals aged 28 to 29:
- In 1984 over the 1984-to-1995 period = cohort 4 (12 years).
- In 1986 over the 1986-to-1997 period = cohort 5 (12 years).
- In 1988 over the 1988-to-1999 period = cohort 6 (12 years).
Using the 1989–2015 LWF, the study tracks the wages of individuals aged 28 to 29:
- In 1990 over the 1990-to-2001 period = cohort 7 (12 years).
- In 1992 over the 1992-to-2003 period = cohort 8 (12 years).
- In 1994 over the 1994-to-2005 period = cohort 9 (12 years).
- In 1996 over the 1996-to-2007 period = cohort 10 (12 years).
- In 1998 over the 1998-to-2009 period = cohort 11 (12 years).
- In 2000 over the 2000-to-2011 period = cohort 12 (12 years).
- In 2002 over the 2002-to-2013 period = cohort 13 (12 years).
- In 2004 over the 2004-to-2015 period = cohort 14 (12 years).
- In 2006 over the 2006-to-2015 period = cohort 15 (10 years).
- In 2008 over the 2008-to-2015 period = cohort 16 (8 years).
- In 2010 over the 2010-to-2015 period = cohort 17 (6 years).
For each gender, year and cohort considered, workers with no wages and salaries are excluded. The percentiles are obtained from the earnings distribution of a given gender, cohort and year.
This yields 186 cohort–year observations for each gender. All synthetic cohort analyses are performed separately for men and women.
References
Beaudry, P., and D.A. Green. 2000. "Cohort patterns in Canadian earnings: Assessing the role of skill premia in inequality trends." Canadian Journal of Economics 33 (4): 907−936.
Green, D.A., and J. Townsend. 2010. “Understanding the wage patterns of Canadian less skilled workers: The role of implicit contracts.” Canadian Journal of Economics 43 (1): 373−403.
Lemieux, T., and C.W. Riddell. 2015. “Who are Canada’s top 1 percent?” In Income Inequality: The Canadian Story, ed. D.A. Green, W.C. Riddell and F. St-Hilaire. Quebec: Institute of Research on Public Policy.
Morissette, R. 2004. Have permanent layoff rates increased in Canada? Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, no. 218. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11F0019M. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
Morissette, R., F. Hou and G. Schellenberg. 2015. Full-time employment, 1976-2014. Economic Insights, no. 049. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-626-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
Morissette, R. 2016. Perspectives on the youth labour market in Canada. A presentation series from Statistics Canada about the economy, environment and society. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-631-X. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Presentation to the National Statistics Council, April 2016.
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