The rise in prices for wheat-based food products, 2023
Description: The rise in prices for wheat-based food products, 2023
The food supply chain consists of many essential steps that move products from producers to consumers. Since March 2022, some costs along the supply chain have been falling, while others have remained high. Prices for bread, pasta and cereal at the grocery store continued to increase in 2023 but at a slower pace than in 2022.
Some costs along the food supply chain fell year over year
Production
Canadian famers felt some relief from lower input costs, which contributed to a 26.5% drop in the price of the wheat they produced (June 2023).
| Inputs | Year-over-year percentage change |
|---|---|
| Pesticides | +9.5% (Q2 2023) |
| Fertilizer | -21.1% (Q2 2023) |
| Machinery fuel | -32.8% (Q2 2023) |
| Agricultural wages | +12.9% (Oct. 2023) |
Processing and packaging
While food manufacturers paid 16.2% less for raw wheat (Sept. 2023), producer prices for some wheat-based products increased.
| Wheat-based products | Year-over-year percentage change (Sept. 2023) |
|---|---|
| Bread, rolls and flatbreads | +10.3% |
| Flour mixes, dough and dry pasta | +0.4% |
| Breakfast cereal and other cereal products | -2.7% |
| Inputs | Year-over-year percentage change |
|---|---|
| Paperboard containers | +14.1% (Sept. 2023) |
| Manufacturing wages | +6.9% (Oct. 2023) |
Transportation
| Inputs | Year-over-year percentage change |
|---|---|
| Diesel fuel | -4.9% (Sept. 2023) |
| Truck transportation | -7.5% (June 2023) |
| Freight rail (grain and fertilizer) | +2.3% (Oct. 2023) |
Wholesale and retail
| Inputs | Year-over-year percentage change |
|---|---|
| Wholesale food margins | +7.5% (Q2 2023) |
| Retail grocery store margins | +9.9% (Q2 2023) |
| Wholesale and retail trade wages | +4.7% (Oct. 2023) |
Consumer prices
Although prices fell for some inputs, prices for wheat-based food products at the grocery store continued to rise, though at a slower pace year over year.
| Date | Year-over-year percentage change | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bread, rolls and buns | Breakfast cereal and other cereal products (excluding baby food) | Dry or fresh pasta | |
| Jan-21 | -3.2% | +1.0% | +0.7% |
| Feb-21 | +2.0% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| Mar-21 | -0.5% | -0.7% | -2.5% |
| Apr-21 | +0.2% | -2.8% | -9.2% |
| May‑21 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -13.7% |
| Jun-21 | -0.2% | -0.6% | -11.2% |
| Jul-21 | -0.1% | +1.0% | -2.0% |
| Aug-21 | -0.4% | +0.9% | -6.1% |
| Sep-21 | +1.1% | +3.0% | +5.2% |
| Oct-21 | +1.0% | +3.3% | -6.4% |
| Nov-21 | +3.0% | +7.8% | +6.0% |
| Dec-21 | +5.1% | +6.8% | +6.7% |
| Jan-22 | +7.5% | +6.7% | +12.6% |
| Feb-22 | +3.7% | +8.5% | +12.0% |
| Mar-22 | +9.1% | +12.3% | +25.8% |
| Apr-22 | +12.2% | +15.0% | +30.1% |
| May‑22 | +11.1% | +13.1% | +25.3% |
| Jun-22 | +11.9% | +11.3% | +31.7% |
| Jul-22 | +15.4% | +11.0% | +29.9% |
| Aug-22 | +17.6% | +12.9% | +32.4% |
| Sep-22 | +17.0% | +16.7% | +29.7% |
| Oct-22 | +17.0% | +17.8% | +44.8% |
| Nov-22 | +18.2% | +14.4% | +27.9% |
| Dec-22 | +14.6% | +14.9% | +29.3% |
| Jan-23 | +18.1% | +10.5% | +26.0% |
| Feb-23 | +15.5% | +11.8% | +29.1% |
| Mar-23 | +13.5% | +12.0% | +16.2% |
| Apr-23 | +11.5% | +8.8% | +19.1% |
| May‑23 | +13.3% | +12.7% | +24.0% |
| Jun-23 | +11.6% | +14.8% | +7.7% |
| Jul-23 | +8.1% | +14.6% | +20.2% |
| Aug-23 | +5.9% | +10.3% | +16.5% |
| Sep-23 | +4.7% | +4.4% | +14.9% |
External factors
Weather
Extreme weather events have become more and more frequent and severe over the past few years, impacting global wheat supply and production. Reduced supply amid ongoing demand results in higher prices for consumers.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
With both countries being major wheat producers, this conflict continues to create uncertainty in the global wheat market.
Sources: Statistics Canada. Employee wages by industry (average hourly wage rate), Farm Product Price Index, Farm Input Price Index, Industrial Product Price Index, Raw Materials Price Index, Wholesale Services Price Index, Retail Services Price Index, For-Hire Motor Carrier Freight Services Price Index, Freight Rail Services Price Index, and the Consumer Price Index.
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