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• 1. Postsecondary Enrolment Trends to 2031: Three Scenarios Archived

  Table: 81-595-M2007058

  Geography: Canada

  Description:

  This report applies various assumptions regarding future participation rates in postsecondary education to projected demographic trends to create three scenarios that estimate the potential future population of students in postsecondary institutions in Canada and the provinces. Projections are provided separately for enrolments at the college and the university levels for three age cohorts: 17 to 19 year-olds, 20 to 24 year-olds and 25 to 29 year-olds. Demographic trends and participation rates in college and in university both vary widely across provinces. To reflect these differences, the analysis is presented at both a national level and for each of the ten provinces. At the national level, the sample size is large enough to allow analysis of trends in both full- and part-time enrolment at the national level; at the provincial level, we constrain our enquiry to full-time only. Demographic data on historical and projected population trends for each of the three age cohorts was provided by Demography Division, Statistics Canada, for the 1990 to 2031 period. Historical college and university participation rates were calculated as the ratio of enrolment to population for the three age cohorts as reported by the Labour Force Survey (LFS). We capture enrolments for the academic year through averaging enrolments over the eight-month period between September and April, for the academic years from 1990/1991 to 2005/2006. Because of the coverage of the LFS, the population considered is that of the ten provinces. Projections of possible future enrolment levels are provided based on three sets of assumptions or 'what if' scenarios: Scenario 1: Maintaining the status quo What if college and university participation rates remain at the average level over the 2003/2004 to 2005/2006 period? Scenario 2: Growth in line with historical trends What if national postsecondary participation rates were to maintain historical trends observed over the 1990/1991 to 2005/2006 period until 2016/2017, remaining constant thereafter? Scenario 3: Closing the gender gap What if, in future, male participation rates in postsecondary education matched the higher rates observed for females over the 2002/2003 to 2005/2006 period?

  Release date: 2007-11-21

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• 2. Demographic Changes in Canada from 1971 to 2001 Across an Urban-to-Rural Gradient Archived

  Articles and reports: 91F0015M2007008

  Geography: Canada

  Description:

  If low fertility, aging, demographic growth and ethnocultural diversity are phenomena that accurately describe Canada overall, the same patterns may not necessarily hold true for urban and rural areas. The rhythm and sources of demographic growth have often been significantly different from one area to the next, which would suggest that the situation across Canada stems from the aggregation of different demographies, which are variable between types of regions.

  The objective of this study is to examine demographic differences between urban and rural areas in Canada by analyzing communities along a gradient ranging from the largest metropolitan regions to the most rural areas. Applying a geographic structure to Census data from 1971 to 2001 that maintains constant borders over time, the authors analyze population growth across eight types of urban and rural regions; as well as the contribution of immigration, fertility and internal migration to growth differentials; and the consequences of these observed demographic differences in terms of aging and ethnocultural diversity.

  The study finds that growth is concentrated in the most metropolitan areas in the country and in the rural areas on which they have a strong influence, and diminished as the degree of rurality increases. Internal migration between the different types of areas has largely contributed to this differential growth: the most urbanized areas-with the exception of Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver-underwent significant migratory gains as well as strong growth. This was also the case with the rural regions that had a strong metropolitan influence. The most rural regions experienced a weak demographic growth, in some cases a decline, despite having higher fertility than other regions. The strong growth in the three largest urban areas in Canada-Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver-is largely attributed to the high numbers of international immigrants who decided to settle there. The concentration of newcomers in these regions helped increase the gap between these three areas and the rest of the country in terms of ethnocultural diversity.

  Release date: 2007-04-26

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• 1. Postsecondary Enrolment Trends to 2031: Three Scenarios Archived

  Table: 81-595-M2007058

  Geography: Canada

  Description:

  This report applies various assumptions regarding future participation rates in postsecondary education to projected demographic trends to create three scenarios that estimate the potential future population of students in postsecondary institutions in Canada and the provinces. Projections are provided separately for enrolments at the college and the university levels for three age cohorts: 17 to 19 year-olds, 20 to 24 year-olds and 25 to 29 year-olds. Demographic trends and participation rates in college and in university both vary widely across provinces. To reflect these differences, the analysis is presented at both a national level and for each of the ten provinces. At the national level, the sample size is large enough to allow analysis of trends in both full- and part-time enrolment at the national level; at the provincial level, we constrain our enquiry to full-time only. Demographic data on historical and projected population trends for each of the three age cohorts was provided by Demography Division, Statistics Canada, for the 1990 to 2031 period. Historical college and university participation rates were calculated as the ratio of enrolment to population for the three age cohorts as reported by the Labour Force Survey (LFS). We capture enrolments for the academic year through averaging enrolments over the eight-month period between September and April, for the academic years from 1990/1991 to 2005/2006. Because of the coverage of the LFS, the population considered is that of the ten provinces. Projections of possible future enrolment levels are provided based on three sets of assumptions or 'what if' scenarios: Scenario 1: Maintaining the status quo What if college and university participation rates remain at the average level over the 2003/2004 to 2005/2006 period? Scenario 2: Growth in line with historical trends What if national postsecondary participation rates were to maintain historical trends observed over the 1990/1991 to 2005/2006 period until 2016/2017, remaining constant thereafter? Scenario 3: Closing the gender gap What if, in future, male participation rates in postsecondary education matched the higher rates observed for females over the 2002/2003 to 2005/2006 period?

  Release date: 2007-11-21

Analysis (1) ((1 result))

• 1. Demographic Changes in Canada from 1971 to 2001 Across an Urban-to-Rural Gradient Archived

  Articles and reports: 91F0015M2007008

  Geography: Canada

  Description:

  If low fertility, aging, demographic growth and ethnocultural diversity are phenomena that accurately describe Canada overall, the same patterns may not necessarily hold true for urban and rural areas. The rhythm and sources of demographic growth have often been significantly different from one area to the next, which would suggest that the situation across Canada stems from the aggregation of different demographies, which are variable between types of regions.

  The objective of this study is to examine demographic differences between urban and rural areas in Canada by analyzing communities along a gradient ranging from the largest metropolitan regions to the most rural areas. Applying a geographic structure to Census data from 1971 to 2001 that maintains constant borders over time, the authors analyze population growth across eight types of urban and rural regions; as well as the contribution of immigration, fertility and internal migration to growth differentials; and the consequences of these observed demographic differences in terms of aging and ethnocultural diversity.

  The study finds that growth is concentrated in the most metropolitan areas in the country and in the rural areas on which they have a strong influence, and diminished as the degree of rurality increases. Internal migration between the different types of areas has largely contributed to this differential growth: the most urbanized areas-with the exception of Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver-underwent significant migratory gains as well as strong growth. This was also the case with the rural regions that had a strong metropolitan influence. The most rural regions experienced a weak demographic growth, in some cases a decline, despite having higher fertility than other regions. The strong growth in the three largest urban areas in Canada-Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver-is largely attributed to the high numbers of international immigrants who decided to settle there. The concentration of newcomers in these regions helped increase the gap between these three areas and the rest of the country in terms of ethnocultural diversity.

  Release date: 2007-04-26

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