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- 1. Small area estimation of the number of firms' recruits by using multivariate models for count data ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201000211379Description:
The number of people recruited by firms in Local Labour Market Areas provides an important indicator of the reorganisation of the local productive processes. In Italy, this parameter can be estimated using the information collected in the Excelsior survey, although it does not provide reliable estimates for the domains of interest. In this paper we propose a multivariate small area estimation approach for count data based on the Multivariate Poisson-Log Normal distribution. This approach will be used to estimate the number of firm recruits both replacing departing employees and filling new positions. In the small area estimation framework, it is customary to assume that sampling variances and covariances are known. However, both they and the direct point estimates suffer from instability. Due to the rare nature of the phenomenon we are analysing, counts in some domains are equal to zero, and this produces estimates of sampling error covariances equal to zero. To account for the extra variability due to the estimated sampling covariance matrix, and to deal with the problem of unreasonable estimated variances and covariances in some domains, we propose an "integrated" approach where we jointly model the parameters of interest and the sampling error covariance matrices. We suggest a solution based again on the Poisson-Log Normal distribution to smooth variances and covariances. The results we obtain are encouraging: the proposed small area estimation model shows a better fit when compared to the Multivariate Normal-Normal (MNN) small area model, and it allows for a non-negligible increase in efficiency.
Release date: 2010-12-21 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M2006280Geography: Province or territoryDescription:
Before 1989, childless social assistance recipients in Quebec under age 30 received much lower benefits than recipients over age 30. We use this sharp discontinuity in policy to estimate the effects of social assistance on various labour market outcomes using a regression discontinuity approach. We find strong evidence that more generous social assistance benefits reduce employment. The estimates exhibit little sensitivity to the degree of flexibility in the specification, and perform very well when we control for unobserved heterogeneity using a first difference specification. Finally, we show that commonly used difference-in-differences estimators may perform poorly with inappropriately chosen control groups.
Release date: 2006-06-14 - Articles and reports: 11-522-X20020016739Description:
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) was not designed to be a longitudinal survey. However, given that respondent households typically remain in the sample for six consecutive months, it is possible to reconstruct six-month fragments of longitudinal data from the monthly records of household members. Such longitudinal data (altogether consisting of millions of person-months of individual- and family-level data) is useful for analyses of monthly labour market dynamics over relatively long periods of time, 20 years and more.
We make use of these data to estimate hazard functions describing transitions among the labour market states: self-employed, paid employee and not employed. Data on job tenure for the employed, and data on the date last worked for the not employed - together with the date of survey responses - permit the estimated models to include terms reflecting seasonality and macro-economic cycles, as well as the duration dependence of each type of transition. In addition, the LFS data permit spouse labour market activity and family composition variables to be included in the hazard models as time-varying covariates. The estimated hazard equations have been included in the LifePaths socio-economic microsimulation model. In this setting, the equations may be used to simulate lifetime employment activity from past, present and future birth cohorts. Cross-sectional simulation results have been used to validate these models by comparisons with census data from the period 1971 to 1996.
Release date: 2004-09-13 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X20030016613Description:
The Illinois Department of Employment Security is using small domain estimation techniques to estimate employment at the county or industry divisional level. The estimator is a standard synthetic estimator, based on the ability to match Current Employment Statistics sample data to ES202 administrative records and an assumed model relationship between the two data sources. This paper is a case study that reviews the steps taken to evaluate the appropriateness of the model and the difficulties encountered in linking the two data sources.
Release date: 2003-07-31 - Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19980015023Description:
The study of social mobility, between labour market statuses or between income levels, for example, is often based on the analysis of mobility matrices. When comparing these transition matrices, with a view to evaluating behavioural changes, one often forgets that the data derive from a sample survey and are therefore affected by sampling variances. Similarly, it is assumed that the responses collected correspond to the ' true value.'
Release date: 1999-10-22
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- 1. Small area estimation of the number of firms' recruits by using multivariate models for count data ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201000211379Description:
The number of people recruited by firms in Local Labour Market Areas provides an important indicator of the reorganisation of the local productive processes. In Italy, this parameter can be estimated using the information collected in the Excelsior survey, although it does not provide reliable estimates for the domains of interest. In this paper we propose a multivariate small area estimation approach for count data based on the Multivariate Poisson-Log Normal distribution. This approach will be used to estimate the number of firm recruits both replacing departing employees and filling new positions. In the small area estimation framework, it is customary to assume that sampling variances and covariances are known. However, both they and the direct point estimates suffer from instability. Due to the rare nature of the phenomenon we are analysing, counts in some domains are equal to zero, and this produces estimates of sampling error covariances equal to zero. To account for the extra variability due to the estimated sampling covariance matrix, and to deal with the problem of unreasonable estimated variances and covariances in some domains, we propose an "integrated" approach where we jointly model the parameters of interest and the sampling error covariance matrices. We suggest a solution based again on the Poisson-Log Normal distribution to smooth variances and covariances. The results we obtain are encouraging: the proposed small area estimation model shows a better fit when compared to the Multivariate Normal-Normal (MNN) small area model, and it allows for a non-negligible increase in efficiency.
Release date: 2010-12-21 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M2006280Geography: Province or territoryDescription:
Before 1989, childless social assistance recipients in Quebec under age 30 received much lower benefits than recipients over age 30. We use this sharp discontinuity in policy to estimate the effects of social assistance on various labour market outcomes using a regression discontinuity approach. We find strong evidence that more generous social assistance benefits reduce employment. The estimates exhibit little sensitivity to the degree of flexibility in the specification, and perform very well when we control for unobserved heterogeneity using a first difference specification. Finally, we show that commonly used difference-in-differences estimators may perform poorly with inappropriately chosen control groups.
Release date: 2006-06-14 - Articles and reports: 11-522-X20020016739Description:
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) was not designed to be a longitudinal survey. However, given that respondent households typically remain in the sample for six consecutive months, it is possible to reconstruct six-month fragments of longitudinal data from the monthly records of household members. Such longitudinal data (altogether consisting of millions of person-months of individual- and family-level data) is useful for analyses of monthly labour market dynamics over relatively long periods of time, 20 years and more.
We make use of these data to estimate hazard functions describing transitions among the labour market states: self-employed, paid employee and not employed. Data on job tenure for the employed, and data on the date last worked for the not employed - together with the date of survey responses - permit the estimated models to include terms reflecting seasonality and macro-economic cycles, as well as the duration dependence of each type of transition. In addition, the LFS data permit spouse labour market activity and family composition variables to be included in the hazard models as time-varying covariates. The estimated hazard equations have been included in the LifePaths socio-economic microsimulation model. In this setting, the equations may be used to simulate lifetime employment activity from past, present and future birth cohorts. Cross-sectional simulation results have been used to validate these models by comparisons with census data from the period 1971 to 1996.
Release date: 2004-09-13 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X20030016613Description:
The Illinois Department of Employment Security is using small domain estimation techniques to estimate employment at the county or industry divisional level. The estimator is a standard synthetic estimator, based on the ability to match Current Employment Statistics sample data to ES202 administrative records and an assumed model relationship between the two data sources. This paper is a case study that reviews the steps taken to evaluate the appropriateness of the model and the difficulties encountered in linking the two data sources.
Release date: 2003-07-31
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- Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19980015023Description:
The study of social mobility, between labour market statuses or between income levels, for example, is often based on the analysis of mobility matrices. When comparing these transition matrices, with a view to evaluating behavioural changes, one often forgets that the data derive from a sample survey and are therefore affected by sampling variances. Similarly, it is assumed that the responses collected correspond to the ' true value.'
Release date: 1999-10-22
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