Leading indicators

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September 2011 (Previous release)

The composite leading index was little changed in September for the fourth month in a row. In September, 6 of the 10 components continued to expand, the same number as in August. The weakness in the index was concentrated in the stock market and the manufacturing sector, largely offsetting the rebound in the housing sector.

Composite leading indicator

Composite leading indicator

Chart description: Composite leading indicator

All of the components related to household demand increased. Housing led the gains with a 1.2% increase, its largest monthly advance since the spring. The upturn in housing helped boost furniture and appliance sales by 0.4%. Demand for other durable goods increased for the third straight month. Consumer services were the leading component of the gain in services employment.

All three manufacturing components decreased, compared with two the month before. New orders fell 0.7%, after back-to-back gains of 3.4%. While sales rebounded after two straight declines, the ratio of shipments to inventories continued to fall, reflecting rising stocks of finished goods. The average workweek dipped for the fourth straight month.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the November 2011 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 24, no. 11 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.