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Leading indicators

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March 2010 (Previous release)

The composite leading index rose 1.0% in March, matching its average monthly increase since July 2009. However, the sources of growth continued to shift away from housing to other sectors of consumer demand and manufacturing.

Composite leading indicator

The housing index rose by 0.2%, its smallest increase since its current upturn began in the spring of 2009. At its peak last summer, the housing index was rising over 5% a month. The recent slowdown originated in a retreat of existing home sales from their record posted late in 2009. Housing starts continued to increase.

Elsewhere, consumer spending was mixed. Furniture and appliance sale rose 1.3%, their largest advance since June 2006. Spending on other durable goods declined 0.5% after eight months of strong growth. Services employment increased 0.6% with strength evident in both the personal and business sectors.

Manufacturing demand continued to recover. New orders rose 3.2%, their third increase in four months. The increased ratio of shipments to inventories was driven mostly by higher sales. Export industries have led the rebound in sales, as demand for capital goods continued to languish. Factories remained restrained in hiring, and the average workweek fell again. The outlook for export demand was buoyed by further gains in the leading indicator for the United States.

Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.

This release will be reprinted in the May 2010 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 23, no. 5 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.

Table 1

Leading indicators
  October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 Last month of data available
              % change
Composite leading indicator (1992=100) 222.8 225.6 228.5 230.0 232.1 234.4 1.0
Housing index (1992=100)1 126.6 130.5 134.0 135.9 138.4 138.7 0.2
Business and personal services employment ('000) 2,874 2,884 2,906 2,917 2,931 2,949 0.6
S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 10,867 11,082 11,273 11,319 11,366 11,591 2.0
Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 202,959 205,641 207,903 209,751 211,630 212,863 0.6
US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 123.9 124.9 125.9 127.0 128.1 128.9 0.6
Manufacturing              
Average workweek (hours) 37.1 37.0 36.9 36.6 36.4 36.3 -0.3
New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 17,095 18,266 19,790 19,518 20,698 21,365 3.2
Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 1.60 1.63 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.77 0.045
Retail trade              
Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 2,826 2,848 2,860 2,867 2,902 2,939 1.3
Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 9,620 9,752 9,862 9,922 10,017 9,971 -0.5
Unsmoothed composite leading indicator 225.8 232.4 233.3 232.8 236.2 237.4 0.5
Composite index of housing starts (units) and house sales (multiple listing service).
Deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all items.
The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the month immediately preceding.
The figures in this row reflect data published in the month indicated, but the figures themselves refer to data for the second preceding month.
Difference from previous month.