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The composite leading index rose 0.9% in January, about equal to its average increase over the previous eight months but less than the 1.5% gain in December. Overall, 8 of the 10 components rose, while the 2 that declined were related to manufacturing.
Household spending remained the leading source of growth in the overall index. The housing index advanced another 1.3%, with solid gains in both existing home sales and housing starts. Spending on durable goods continued to increase, despite a temporary deceleration in auto sales. Personal and business services contributed about equally to the growth in the services employment component.
The leading indicator for the United States rose about 1% for the fifth straight month. Real gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter hit a six-year high. These gains in Canada's primary export market were reflected in the largest hike in the ratio of shipments to inventories since April 2002. The increase was driven by both a strengthening upturn in sales and steady declines in inventories. However, new orders for manufactured goods remained highly volatile, as consecutive gains of 7% were followed by a 1% decline. Most of this volatility originated in aerospace.
The stock market rally slowed, from a peak rate increase of over 5% in the trend to 0.4% in January.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the March 2010 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 23, no. 3 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| August 2009 | September 2009 | October 2009 | November 2009 | December 2009 | January 2010 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 218.5 | 221.2 | 222.8 | 225.7 | 229.0 | 231.1 | 0.9 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 113.3 | 120.0 | 126.9 | 130.9 | 134.7 | 136.4 | 1.3 |
| Business and personal services employment ('000) | 2,893 | 2,883 | 2,873 | 2,884 | 2,906 | 2,916 | 0.3 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 10,345 | 10,759 | 10,867 | 11,082 | 11,273 | 11,319 | 0.4 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 198,200 | 200,282 | 202,960 | 205,766 | 208,111 | 209,835 | 0.8 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 121.5 | 122.7 | 123.9 | 124.9 | 125.9 | 127.0 | 0.9 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 36.9 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.1 | 37.0 | -0.3 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 18,473 | 17,908 | 17,097 | 18,300 | 19,707 | 19,518 | -1.0 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.69 | 0.045 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,807 | 2,811 | 2,826 | 2,847 | 2,862 | 2,871 | 0.3 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,445 | 9,546 | 9,620 | 9,749 | 9,886 | 9,987 | 1.0 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 225.1 | 225.6 | 225.9 | 232.8 | 235.4 | 235.6 | 0.1 |
