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The composite leading index fell 1.3% in March following a 1.4% drop in February. The contraction in the manufacturing sector intensified as widespread cutbacks were implemented in the auto industry early in the new year. This was offset by a marked slowdown in the fall of the housing and stock markets.
All three manufacturing indicators fell in unison. The sharpest decline was for new orders, down a record 10.3% due to falling demand for autos. Falling shipments also lowered the ratio of shipments to inventories. Preliminary data for February on the number of auto assemblies point to a rebound of over one-quarter of output.
The financial indicators continued to improve. The money supply remained the only component to expand. The stock market continued its downward trend, dropping 2.3% in March, following five straight declines averaging nearly 8% a month.
The rate of decline of the housing index also moderated to 4.3% in March from 7.7% in February. Both housing starts and existing home sales saw improvements after several months of retreat. Sales of other durable goods also posted a much lower rate of decline of 0.6%, as the rapid drop in auto sales late in 2008 began to level off early in the new year.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the May 2009 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 22, no. 5 (11-010-XWE, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
Table 1
| October 2008 | November 2008 | December 2008 | January 2009 | February 2009 | March 2009 | Last month of data available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change | |||||||
| Composite leading indicator (1992=100) | 228.2 | 226.5 | 224.3 | 221.8 | 218.8 | 216.0 | -1.3 |
| Housing index (1992=100)1 | 130.2 | 123.1 | 117.7 | 109.5 | 101.1 | 96.8 | -4.3 |
| Business and personal services employment ('000) | 2,952 | 2,948 | 2,945 | 2,932 | 2,924 | 2,920 | -0.1 |
| S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) | 12,669 | 11,630 | 10,709 | 9,694 | 8,968 | 8,759 | -2.3 |
| Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)2 | 176,148 | 178,768 | 181,834 | 185,011 | 187,579 | 189,336 | 0.9 |
| US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)3 | 123.2 | 122.5 | 121.7 | 121.1 | 120.7 | 120.2 | -0.4 |
| Manufacturing | |||||||
| Average workweek (hours) | 37.6 | 37.5 | 37.0 | 36.9 | 36.7 | 36.6 | -0.3 |
| New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)4 | 27,679 | 27,821 | 28,826 | 27,807 | 26,535 | 23,811 | -10.3 |
| Shipments/inventories of finished goods4 | 1.76 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.63 | -0.065 |
| Retail trade | |||||||
| Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 2,936 | 2,950 | 2,949 | 2,953 | 2,938 | 2,912 | -0.9 |
| Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)4 | 9,654 | 9,666 | 9,660 | 9,621 | 9,444 | 9,392 | -0.6 |
| Unsmoothed composite leading indicator | 224.0 | 221.8 | 218.3 | 217.5 | 212.6 | 210.0 | -1.2 |
