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The Daily


Wednesday, January 10, 2007
November 2006

Canada's merchandise exports rose 2.8% in November, halting two consecutive declines, with increases in all sectors but agriculture and forestry. Imports inched up 0.4% for the month.

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Companies exported merchandise worth $38.1 billion in November while imports stood at $33.5 billion.

As a result, Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world widened to $4.7 billion from $3.8 billion in October.

Exports to the United States surged 3.6% to $29.4 billion, with gains in exports of energy and autos. This was in contrast to a downward trend in exports to the United States that has dominated the second half of 2006 in the wake of retreating energy prices and falling shipments of lumber and autos.


Note to readers

Merchandise trade is one component of the current account of Canada's balance of payments, which also includes trade in services.

International trade data for the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom are available on both a balance of payments basis as well as a customs basis. Trade data for all other individual countries are available on a customs basis only.

Starting with reference month September 2006, there will be a section in The Daily at the end of each quarter describing trends in trade between Canada and emerging economies, such as China. This section will discuss data which is on a customs basis and is not seasonally adjusted.

Please be advised that the International Trade Division is currently updating the base year for import and export price indices. This update will see the base year change from 1997 to 2002, and is being undertaken in collaboration with the System of National Accounts. Base year 2002 CANSIM tables will replace the current CANSIM tables 228-0035 to 228-0040 and 228-0044 to 228-0046 in mid-2007.

Revisions

In general, merchandise trade data are revised on an ongoing basis for each month of the current year. Customs basis data are revised for the previous data year each quarter.

Factors influencing revisions include late receipt of import and export documentation, incorrect information on customs forms, replacement of estimates with actual figures, changes in classification of merchandise based on more current information, and changes to seasonal adjustment factors.

Revised data are available in the appropriate CANSIM tables.


In fact, these second-half declines, combined with rising demand for metals, chemicals and aircraft from countries other than the United States, have changed the composition of Canada's exports.

The United States, our biggest trading partner, accounted for only 77% of all merchandise exports in November, compared with 82% a year ago and 84% in November 2002. Exports to the United States were 1.7% lower in the first 11 months of 2006 compared with the same period a year earlier.

On the other hand, exports to countries other than the United States were up 13% for this 11-month period.

Exports to the European Union were up 15.7% compared with January to November 2005, thanks to higher exports of gold, uranium and aircraft. In terms of other Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, Mexico is the leading destination for exports, registering increases in iron and steel, telecommunications equipment, as well as auto parts.

For the rest of the world, exports to India were also up, with wheat, aircraft and metal ores leading the way. Brazil and Russia have also shown large gains in 2006.

Exports to China have registered an increase over 2005 levels. Canada's exports of metals to China, such as nickel, have recorded a large jump. This has been partially offset by declines in agricultural materials, such as potash.

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Automotive products lead increase in exports

Exports of automotive products, after cooling for several months as a result of production slowdowns and plant retooling, showed strength in October and November. In contrast to October, when trucks alone pushed up auto export values, increases in cars, trucks and parts accounted for the rise in November.

Exports of industrial goods hit a record high of $8.5 billion in November, as a result of a 3.1% increase for the month. Metals and alloys accounted for most of the gain, rising 8.3% to $3.2 billion on the strength of nickel exports. Exports of uranium to the United States and United Kingdom also contributed to the advance.

The export story for 2006 has certainly been industrial goods and materials, specifically metals. Exports of industrial goods for the January to November period of 2006 are 11.3% greater than during the same period in 2005. Also, since June, industrial goods have been the highest value export sector, rising above machinery and equipment.

Energy and machinery and equipment also registered gains in November, with steady agricultural exports and declining forestry exports rounding out the export report card.

Energy export values were up 3.7% in November to $6.4 billion. An increase in exports of petroleum and coal products, specifically, ultra low sulphur diesel to the United States, secured the rise. Gas stations in the United States were mandated as of mid-October to make available this fuel, which has a sulphur content of less than 15 parts per million.

Natural gas values increased 1.8% for the month following two declines, while crude values remained unchanged after three consecutive decreases.

In machinery and equipment, a 7.2% rise in aerospace products exports assured the gain. For the year, aircraft exports are up with increased demand from the European Union and Asia compensating for a large drop in exports to the United States.

Exports of agricultural products remained at $2.7 billion, with a slight decline in wheat and fish exports being offset by an increase in barley, other cereal preparations and live animals.

Forestry exports were down 2.2% in November, continuing the downward trend that has dominated 2006.

Imports show slight gain

Energy imports, as well as automotive imports, were up in November, allowing total import values to edge up 0.4% despite a large drop in industrial goods and materials.

After reaching a record high level in October, industrial goods and materials were down 4.4% in November to $6.9 billion dollars. Imports of metals and metal ores declined 7.9% and chemicals and plastics fell 3.8% for the month, following large orders of zinc, copper, as well as chemicals for pharmaceutical manufacturing in October.

Imports of energy products registered gains of 8.3% in November to reach $2.6 billion, following large drops in September and October. Imports were up for crude petroleum, heating and diesel fuel, as well as natural gas, however, values remained well below the August record high for energy imports of $3.4 billion.

A 6.1% increase in imports of motor vehicle parts pushed imports of automotive products up for the month. Imports of parts have registered declines since July. Imports of passenger autos and trucks were down 0.7% and 1.3% respectively.

Imports of consumer goods inched up to a record high of $4.4 billion on the strength of toys and televisions. In contrast, imports of machinery and equipment were down 0.4% to $9.6 billion.

Imports of agricultural products were stable at $2.0 billion. Within agricultural products, coffee imports grew 7.4% to $348 million; however, this increase was offset by widespread declines in other agricultural products.

Available on CANSIM: tables 228-0001 to 228-0003 and 228-0033 to 228-0046.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 2201, 2202 and 2203.

The November 2006 issue of Canadian International Merchandise Trade, Vol. 60, no. 11 (65-001-XIB, free) is now available from the Publications module of our website. The publication includes tables by commodity and country on a customs basis. Current account data (which incorporate merchandise trade statistics, service transactions, investment income and transfers) are available quarterly in Canada's Balance of International Payments (67-001-XWE, free).

The publication is available free in PDF format on the morning of release.

For more information on products and services, contact Anne Couillard (toll-free 1-800-294-5583; 613-951-6867). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Diana Wyman (613-951-3116), International Trade Division.

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