Demographic Changes in Canada from 1971 to 2001 Across an Urban-to-Rural Gradient

91F0015MWE

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Introduction

Recent trends in fertility, aging and immigration have not had a uniform impact on the growth and composition of the Canadian population. On the contrary, it would appear that the rhythm and sources of demographic growth have often been significantly different from one area to the next, which would suggest that the situation across Canada stems from the aggregation of different demographies, which are changeable from province to province, or from territory to territory, and sometimes even more significantly between urban and rural areas.

Beginning in the post-baby-boom period¹, fertility fell substantially and has remained below the replacement level for more than 30 years. But fertility continues to show significant variation between regions, with the average number of children per woman remaining above three in Nunavut, while remaining stable at 1.3 in Newfoundland and Labrador for nearly ten years (Statistics Canada, 2006A). We also know that fertility is lower overall in the census metropolitan areas (CMA) than in the rest of the country, even though it varies between CMAs (Statistics Canada, 2003A). To the extent that it plays a significant part in renewing the population and affects the age structure of populations, fertility is a key factor in the growth and dynamics of population aging.

Immigration, which has remained high since the end of the 1980s and has allowed Canada to experience one of the most significant population growths among G-8 countries, is also not uniform across the country. Newcomers are heavily concentrated in the country’s most urbanized areas. According to the 2001 Census, 94% of immigrants who came to Canada in the 1990s are living in CMAs, and close to three-quarters (73%) of them live in the Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver CMAs (Statistics Canada, 2003B). According to a recent study, immigrants who arrived in Canada in 2000-2001 most often give presence of family and friends as the explanation for choosing Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver as their place of residence. This is followed by employment opportunities for immigrants who chose Toronto, climate for those who settled in Vancouver and language for the newcomers who selected Montréal (Statistics Canada, 2003C). This uneven distribution of immigration (and, by consequence, of ethnocultural diversity) across Canada is a source of concern to government authorities (Citizenship and Immigration Canada, 2001).

To a large extent, demographic dynamics at the sub-national level are affected by internal migration and differential migration by age. It has been shown that, in general, rural areas with economies that depend on natural resources and with fewer employment opportunities have seen their populations decline as a result of migration to urban areas and other provinces (Beshiri and Bollman, 2001; Moore and Rosenberg, 1997). Internal migration appears to be more significant among young adults than other age groups (Audas and McDonald, 2004; Rothwell, Bollman, Tremblay, and Marshall, 2002; Tremblay, 2001). Pursuing their studies, employment and wanting to experience “city living” are also factors that foster the migration of young people from rural to urban areas.

On the other hand, rural areas that are located within commuting distances from urban employment centres could appear attractive, either because of the lower cost of housing or the quality of life associated with these areas. For instance, Nova Scotia has a strong growth rate in this regard because of the low cost of land, minimum controls on development and the prevalence of a rural culture (Millward, 2005). Areas adjoining the Vancouver and Victoria metropolitan centres are also growing based on the changes affecting their populations (Halseth, 2003). We have also seen retired people moving to rural areas that provide services and infrastructure as well as desirable climates and landscapes.

This document aims to analyze the differences between urban and rural areas that have occurred over Canada’s recent demographic history by answering the following three research questions. What have the respective growth patterns been in the different types of urban and rural areas over the past 30 years? How have immigration, fertility and internal migration contributed to differentiating between Canada’s urban and rural areas in terms of their demographic growth? What are the consequences of these different population growth patterns with respect to aging and ethnocultural diversity?

In order to answer these questions, we analyzed Census data from 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001, and applied a typology that classifies place of residence according to a gradient ranging from the largest metropolitan regions to the most rural. In order to allow historical comparisons, the geographic structure was kept constant over time, unless otherwise indicated.

Notes

1. The baby boom, a period of high fertility that occurred in most western countries following World War II, took place in Canada between 1946 and 1965.