Annex E
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Table E1
Comparison of quarterly net-migration based on Manitoba health
insurance data and preliminary Demography Division estimates
(CCTB-base) with
annual figures as of July 1, 0 to 17 age cohort
| Quarterly | In-migrants | Out-migrants | Net migrants (in-out) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | Medicare | Ratio1 | Estimate | Medicare | Ratio1 | Estimate | Medicare | |
| number | number | number | ||||||
| 2003/2004 | ||||||||
| July to September | 1,186 | 863 | 0.7 | 1,404 | 694 | 0.5 | -218 | 169 |
| October to December | 1,122 | 1,467 | 1.3 | 1,132 | 380 | 0.3 | -10 | 1,087 |
| January to March | 714 | 984 | 1.4 | 641 | 1,289 | 2 | 73 | -305 |
| April to June | 1,210 | 811 | 0.7 | 1,158 | 1,152 | 1 | 52 | -341 |
| Total | 4,232 | 4,125 | 1 | 4,335 | 3,515 | 0.8 | -103 | 610 |
| 2004/2005 | ||||||||
| July to September | 1,285 | 1,476 | 1.1 | 1,220 | 370 | 0.3 | 65 | 1,106 |
| October to December | 735 | 935 | 1.3 | 794 | 810 | 1 | -59 | 125 |
| January to March | 865 | 662 | 0.8 | 991 | 1,728 | 1.7 | -126 | -1,066 |
| April to June | 960 | 620 | 0.6 | 1,428 | 1,049 | 0.7 | -468 | -430 |
| Total | 3,845 | 3,693 | 1 | 4,433 | 3,957 | 0.9 | -588 | -264 |
| 2005/2006 | ||||||||
| July to September | 1,171 | 1,117 | 1 | 1,805 | 602 | 0.3 | -634 | 515 |
| October to December | 568 | 852 | 1.5 | 986 | 808 | 0.8 | -418 | 44 |
| January to March | 893 | 614 | 0.7 | 1,188 | 2,451 | 2.1 | -295 | -1,837 |
| April to June | 987 | 642 | 0.7 | 1,399 | 874 | 0.6 | -412 | -232 |
| Total | 3,619 | 3,225 | 0.9 | 5,378 | 4,735 | 0.9 | -1,759 | -1,510 |
Note:
1. The ratio is calculated by dividing the Medicare number over the estimate number.
The ratio of Manitoba's cancellations (=out-migrants) based on their health care files and compared to our own estimates of out migration varies greatly: 0.3 in July to September 2004 to 2.1 in January to March 2006.
Net migration figures based on the Manitoba records vary from 44 in October to December 2005 to -1,837 in January to March 2006.
In 7 cases, the quarterly net migration direction differs between Manitoba and the Demography Division estimates.
As stated earlier, into which month or quarter to put these provincially-based in- and, especially, out-migration figures into is based more on administrative or processing dates as opposed to when people actually arrived or left (See Annex F).
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