Base population and projection model

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This edition of Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada takes as a starting point the 2011 National Household Survey microdata file. These data were adjusted to reflect the institutional population, net undercoverage, and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and Indian settlements. Additional information, particularly on registration categories 6(1) and 6(2) for Registered Indians, was also added to this database through record linkage. Following these adjustments, the Demosim base population is estimated at 34,273,000, including 1,502,000 people with an Aboriginal identity (see Table 1).

The population projection was produced using Demosim. Demosim is a microsimulation model that has been used in the past to prepare the documents Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010) and Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2011). This model can simultaneously project a large number of population characteristics in addition to Aboriginal identity, registered Indian status and registration category. These characteristics notably include age, sex, place of residence, place of birth, visible minority group, religion, education and head-of-household status. However, this report addresses only those results relating to characteristics more specifically associated with Aboriginal populations.

To project these population characteristics, Demosim models a variety of demographic and non-demographic events. The projection process therefore considers not only fertility, mortality and migration (internal and international), but also registration on the Indian Register over an individual's lifetime, intergenerational transmission of registered Indian status as well as changes that can arise from one generation to the next or during a person's lifetime with regard to the Aboriginal group reported (also referred to as the "ethnic mobility of Aboriginal people"). The projection also takes into account marital status, changes in education level, religious mobility and linguistic mobility. These events are projected on the basis of characteristics relevant to their projection.

The data sources and methods used as a basis to project these components are described in a separate report, which accompanies this publication (see Box 1). The assumptions and scenarios selected for these projections are nonetheless described in this report (see section "Projection assumptions and scenarios") as they constitute a key element in interpreting and understanding the results.

Box 1For more information on the base population and methodology used in the Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036

Readers interested in learning more about Demosim and the methods and data sources used in Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 should refer to the publication Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources. This new publication includes a general description of how Demosim works, the data used to establish the base population for these projections, as well as the data sources and methods for each component of the model. It is the methodological complement to this report.

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