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The aim of this report was to describe possible changes in Aboriginal populations and households in Canada and selected regions in the country between 2011 and 2036. The report was also designed to measure the sensitivity of those changes to various components of population growth, such as fertility, intragenerational ethnic mobility and internal migration. The scenarios developed showed that the Aboriginal identity population as a whole could increase more rapidly than the rest of the population and that their growth rate could be more strongly tied to whether or not intragenerational ethnic mobility continues than to a potential change in fertility.

The number of households composed of at least one person with an Aboriginal identity would also increase more quickly than other households.

Among Aboriginal identity groups, Registered Indians, Non-Status Indians, Métis and Inuit would see their numbers rise over the next 25 years, albeit at differing paces that would vary depending on the scenario. All of these populations are likely to age but would remain younger than the non-Aboriginal population.

The profile revealed by this report nonetheless changes from region to region. Among the provinces, Ontario would continue to record the highest number of Aboriginal people, but Manitoba and Saskatchewan would continue to have the higher proportions of Aboriginal people in their population. Overall, however, the proportions would remain highest in the territories. For its part, the population living on Indian reserves would continue to increase, particularly if internal migration continues to sustain its growth, as it has in recent decades.

Although these projections were prepared using a sophisticated projection model, they are subject to various sources of uncertainty associated with data sources, component estimates and assumptions about the future evolution of the components considered. While the assumptions are based on the most recent databases, incorporate suggestions from literature and were the subject of various consultations, they should not be interpreted as predictions. The proposed scenarios provide, at the time of their development, a plausible range of future evolution based on current knowledge. However, by its very nature, the future remains unknown. That is why projection users should consider the full range of results from all scenarios presented in this report, rather than search for one scenario that seems more probable than others.

The data in this report provide researchers, planners and the general public with a tool to look at issues related to Aboriginal populations in Canada within a range of plausible demographic contexts. These issues—housing, education, labour force participation, etc.—will evolve within a context of population growth and continued aging in the coming years.