Statistics Canada - Statistique Canada
Skip main navigation menuSkip secondary navigation menuHomeFrançaisContact UsHelpSearch the websiteCanada Site
The DailyCanadian StatisticsCommunity ProfilesProducts and servicesHome
CensusCanadian StatisticsCommunity ProfilesProducts and servicesOther links

Warning View the most recent version.

Archived Content

Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.

Publication's logo
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
91-547-XIE
Projections of the Aboriginal populations, Canada, provinces and territories
2001 to 2017


Chapter III : Analysis of the projections’ results

In this part of the report, we discuss the general results of the projections of the Aboriginal populations in Canada over 16 years according to the five scenarios. First, we present a plausible growth and composition of this population in 2017. Second, we consider selected issues related to projected changes in geographic concentration of the Aboriginal groups from 2001 to 2017.

Size and growth of the Aboriginal populations in Canada from 2001 to 2017

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Aboriginal population accounted for 3.4% of Canada’s total population. Compared with other selected countries, Canada’s proportion of the Aboriginal population ranked second, behind New Zealand, in which the Aboriginal population accounted for 14% of its total population 1. In Australia and the United States, the Aboriginal peoples’ share of their national population was 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively 2. The next three sections of the report describe the evolution over 16 years of the size of the Canadian Aboriginal population as given by five selected scenarios, discuss the projected composition of this population with respect to the three Aboriginal groups, and provide an insight into the possible change to the demographic profile of these groups.

Overall growth of the Aboriginal population

In 2001, 1,066,500 people identified themselves as Aboriginal, compared with 904,300 3 five years earlier (text table 3.1 ). From 1996 to 2001, the Aboriginal population increased 17.9%, while the total population of Canada rose by 4.8%. The high rate of growth among the Aboriginal population could be attributed, in part, to higher fertility rates compared with those of the Canadian population. Currently, the Aboriginal birth rate is about one and a half times the overall Canadian birth rate. Also, the Aboriginal death rate is lower than the Canadian rate by about 40%, as the younger age composition of the Aboriginal population compensates for their higher mortality. The remainder of the large growth could be a function of ethnic mobility. Ethnic mobility refers to people changing the reporting of their Aboriginal affiliation from one census to the next 4. The increased tendency of individuals to report having an Aboriginal identity contributed to the considerable growth from 1996 to 2001. Since the 1986 Census, the tendency to more often report Aboriginal origins or identity has been identified and judged to be the result of an increased awareness of Aboriginal issues. A similar trend in Aboriginality reporting was also observed in the censuses of Australia, the United States and New Zealand 5.

Text table 3.1
Projected total Aboriginal population according to different scenarios, Canada, selected years

Scenario                   Projected population
2006 2011 2017
  in thousands
Scenario A 1,169.5 1,282.8 1,431.8
Scenario B 1,168.6 1,278.4 1,420.0
Scenario C 1,168.9 1,280.8 1,427.9
Scenario D 1,166.6 1,268.5 1,390.2
Scenario S 1,182.1 1,308.2 1,471.7
Note: Census-adjusted Aboriginal population in 1996 and 2001 was estimated at 904,300 and 1,066,500, respectively.
Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

At the national level, the projected growth of the Aboriginal population was mainly the result of births and deaths, since the contribution of international migration was insignificant. The impact of internal migration could be felt at the regional and place of residence levels, but not directly at the national level. Net gain in migration to high-fertility regions could result in larger number of births, and vice versa, but the impact tended to counterbalance and was expected to be small. The influence of fertility on population growth and age structure was greater than mortality since the effect of mortality was mostly concentrated in the elderly population. In addition, it was assumed that the slower pace of mortality decrease observed since the 1990s would continue into the future, making its impact even smaller over the projection period. Yet, fertility among the Aboriginal population is still high, and above the replacement level.

The Aboriginal population in Canada was projected to continue growing within the 16-year projection period. Under the high-growth scenario (Scenario A), the Aboriginal population would reach around 1,431,800 if the fertility trend observed in 2001 continued into the future and Aboriginal mortality continued to decline during the projection period. If the Aboriginal population assumes a fast decline of fertility in the future years, the Aboriginal population would reach around 1,390,200 by 2017 (Scenario D).

Compared to the total Canadian population, the Aboriginal population is still very young and, therefore, likely to continue to grow much faster than the total population. Under the medium-growth scenario, the Aboriginal population was projected to reach 1,420,000 by 2017, which represents an average annual growth rate of 1.8% or a 16-year growth of 33.1%. The growth rate would be more than twice the rate projected for the total population of Canada (an average annual growth of 0.7%, or 12.0% for the same 16-year period).

If only demographic factors were taken into consideration, we would expect that the population would have a range of 41,600 between the high-growth (Scenario A) and low-growth (Scenario D) scenarios. The range was a function of fertility since mortality and internal migration were the same in both scenarios. Our special projection would provide further insights into the future growth of the Aboriginal population if a non-demographic factor, the transfer of identity from mother to children, was also considered (Scenario S). This transfer was assumed to happen at birth, thus the assumption had a direct impact on the number of births. According to this special projection, total Aboriginal population would increase by 405,200 or 38% in 16 years. In 2017, the Aboriginal population would reach 1,471,700 people - 39,900 more people than projections according to Scenario A, which assumed the perfect transferability. At the national level, this factor may account for about 10% in the overall increase of the Aboriginal population growth from 2001 to 2017.

The natural increase in the Aboriginal population was projected to grow, from 19,800 in 2001/02 to 23,000 in 2016/17, an increase of 16.5%, according to the medium-growth scenario (Scenario B). In the next 16 years, both births and deaths would increase, but the pace would be much faster for deaths (57.4%) than for births (24.1%) (see text table 3.1 ).

Net international migration is currently the main factor in Canada’s population growth, accounting for around 60% of its overall growth annually. Without international migration, the Canadian population would be growing much slower because of its aging population and its low fertility. The number of deaths has been rising steadily since the early 1980s and is bound to continue as the baby boomers move into the older ages. The number of births is decreasing. Would the high growth of the Aboriginal population compensate for the declining natural increase in Canada? During the course of the projection period, the natural increase of the Aboriginal population was projected to grow by almost 3,300. Its contribution to the overall growth of the Canadian population would increase from 7% in 2001/02 to 10% in 2016/17. Conversely, the natural increase of the non-Aboriginal population was projected to reduce by half, from around 97,000 in 2001/02 to 51,000 in 2016/17, thus its share of the total growth of the Canadian population would decline from 35% in the base year to 22% by the end of the projection period. The contribution of net international migration to the overall growth would increase by 10 percentage points from 2001/02 to 2016/17 6.

Composition of the Aboriginal population

Among the three Aboriginal groups, the Métis had the largest population gain from 1996 to 2001, an increase of 91,600 or 42.8% (chart 3.1 ). It would be expected that changes in ethnic identity contributed to the sizeable growth of the Métis population since, among the three Aboriginal groups, its fertility level is closest to the total Canadian population. The increase for the North American Indians and the Inuit was more moderate, 65,100 or 10.0% and 5,500 or 13.2%, respectively. This was still much larger than the 4.3% increase of the non-Aboriginal population in Canada during the 1996 to 2001 period 7.

In 2001, the majority of the Aboriginal population was North American Indians, representing 66.9% (713,100) of the total population (Chart 3.2 ). The Métis represented 28.7% (305,800) and the Inuit 4.5% (47,600). In 2017, according to the medium-growth scenario (B), the North American Indians would retain its majority status, at 68.4%, followed by the Métis, 26.8% and the Inuit, 4.8%.

Chart 3.1
Aboriginal population by group, Canada, 1996, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.1
Aboriginal population by group, Canada, 1996, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.2
Proportion of Aboriginal groups in the total Aboriginal population (%), Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.2
Proportion of Aboriginal groups in the total Aboriginal population
(%), Canada, 2001 and 2017

The North American Indian population was projected to reach 971,200 in 2017 from 713,100 in 2001, which represents a growth of 36.2% for the 16-year period or 1.9% annually (Scenario B). The projected North American Indian population by 2017 would range from 945,200 under the low-growth scenario (Scenario D) to 979,700 with the high-growth scenario (Scenario A). The Métis population would grow at the slowest rate of 24.4% or 1.4% annually, from 305,800 in 2001 to 380,500 in 2017. However, this is still two times faster than the projected growth rate of the non-Aboriginal population in Canada, 12.2% during the same period or 0.7% annually. The range in population by 2017 with the low- and high-growth scenarios was 3,800, between 379,300 (Scenario D) and 383,100 (Scenario A) for the Métis. The Inuit population is estimated to have the highest fertility rates among the three Aboriginal groups at around 3.3 children per woman in 2001. Thus, the Inuit population would grow the fastest to reach around 68,400 in 2017, from 47,600 in 2001, according to the medium-growth scenario. This represents a 16-year growth of 43.7% or an average annual rate of 2.3%. The range in projected growth was about 3,500 between a low projection of 65,600 (Scenario D) and a high projection of 69,100 (Scenario A). Since only demographic growth was considered in these projections, differential fertility among the three Aboriginal groups was the main cause for the dissimilar growth patterns (charts 3.3  and 3.4 ).

Chart 3.3
Annual rate of population growth by Aboriginal group, Canada, 2001-2006 to 2011-2017 (scenario B)

Chart 3.3
Annual rate of population growth by Aboriginal group, Canada, 2001-2006 to 2011-2017 (scenario
B)

Chart 3.4
Aboriginal population by group and scenario, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.4
Aboriginal population by group and scenario, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.5
Natural increase in the Aboriginal populations, Canada, 2001/02 to 2016/17

Chart 3.5
Natural increase in the Aboriginal populations, Canada, 2001/02 to 2016/17

Natural increase was the only component of annual growth for the total Aboriginal population at the national level and this was also true for individual groups. Among the three Aboriginal groups, the Métis was the only group that would experience a declining natural increase with the medium-growth scenario (-5.1%). The decline was the result of a substantial increase in the annual number of deaths, 64.6%, combined with a small increase in births, 10.0%. The annual natural increase of the North American Indians was projected to increase over the period (22.5%), as both the numbers of births and deaths would increase in the future, 28.3% and 56.2%, respectively. In the case of the Inuit, the natural increase would increase at a comparatively faster pace of 28.4% due to a slower increase in deaths (37.9%) combined with a relatively large increase in births, 30.3% (chart 3.5 ).

A comparison between the projections with different assumptions of Aboriginality transfer to children, Scenario S and Scenario A, showed that if the transferability trend from 2001 continued into the future, it would account for about 8% of the total growth of the North American Indians from 2001 to 2017. The overall increase in the North American Indian population was projected to be around 41% during the course of the projection period, according to the special projection (Scenario S). The contribution of Aboriginality transfers to the overall growth of the Métis from 2001 to 2017 was projected to be the largest of the Aboriginal groups, 16%, but for the Inuit, it would account for only 3% of the overall increase in size during the same period 8.

Demographic profile of the Aboriginal population

The Aboriginal population in 2001 was much younger than the Canadian population, due to a higher birth rate among the Aboriginal people (chart 3.6 ). The median age 9 of the total Aboriginal population was 12 years lower than that of the Canadian population in 2001. The median age of the Aboriginal population was 24.7 years, while that of the Canadian population was 37.1 years. Over the next 16 years, a trend toward aging was evident among the Aboriginal population, though it would be much slower than for the Canadian population. The main cause of this trend is the gradually increasing life expectancy and the declining fertility rates of the Aboriginal peoples. By 2017, the median age of the Aboriginal population would reach 27.8 years, compared to 41.3 years for the total Canadian population (medium-growth scenario).

In the Canadian population, the increasing median age reflects both the entry of the baby-boom cohorts into older age groups (the youngest baby boom cohort will be aged 45 years in 2011) and the continuing low-fertility level which results in fewer children. Because the Aboriginal fertility peaked in 1967, about ten years later than the Canadian population 10, considerable aging of the Aboriginal population would not be apparent within the projection period. The number of persons aged 65 years and older was around 42,400 in 2001, and was projected to double to 92,500 by 2017, according to the medium-growth scenario (Scenario B), but their proportion would only increase from around 4.0% in 2001 to 6.5% by 2017. Conversely, the number of seniors in the Canadian population would increase considerably in the next 16 years, from 3.9 million in 2001 to 5.8 million in 2017. The percentage of seniors in Canada was projected to increase to 16.6% in 2017 from 12.6% in 2001.

Chart 3.6
Distribution of the Canadian and Aboriginal population by age group, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.6
Distribution of the Canadian and Aboriginal population by age group, 2001 and 2017

Instead of tackling the impact of demographic aging that the Canadian population is embracing in the near future, the Aboriginal population will have to confront the challenge of having a large number of young adults entering the labour market. The growth of the young adult Aboriginal population (20 to 29 years) was projected to be 41.9% from 2001 to 2017, compared to a growth of 8.7% for the young adult population in Canada for the same period. The growth of the young Aboriginal adults was projected to be 71,400 over the next 16 years (medium-growth scenario), from 170,300 in 2001 to 241,700 in 2017 (chart 3.6 ).

In 2001, the largest age group was children aged 0 to 14 years, representing one-third of the total Aboriginal population (figure 3.1 ). In contrast, only 18.9% of the Canadian population was in this age group. Declining fertility in the Aboriginal population will result in smaller cohorts of children born in the future. By 2017, the proportion of the Aboriginal children would be lower, declining to around 28.6%, compared to 15.9% in the Canadian population.

Figure 3.1
Age pyramid for the total Aboriginal population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Age pyramid for the total Aboriginal population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

An indicator that shows the relation between the working-age and non-working-age subpopulations is the dependency ratio. This refers to the ratio of persons under the age of 15 years and persons 65 years and over to the 15 to 64 year-old population 11. Because of the increase in the working-age population among the Aboriginal peoples, the dependency ratio was projected to decrease from 58 in 2001 to 52 in 2011 (Scenario B). After that, the dependency ratio would rise slightly to 54 in 2017, mainly due to the larger increase in the number of seniors. In the Canadian population, the dependency ratio was projected to increase from 46 in 2001 to 48 in 2017 due largely to the increasing size of the elderly population.

Figure 3.2
Age pyramid for the North American Indian population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Age pyramid for the North American Indian population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

The Inuit population is the youngest of the three groups, with a median age of 20.9 years in 2001. The Métis have the lowest fertility level among the Aboriginal groups and, thus, the oldest median age of 27.0 years in 2001. The median age of the North American Indians trailed behind the Métis at 24.0 years. Because of an assumed declining fertility level and an improving mortality condition within the projection period, median ages of each Aboriginal group will continue to increase. The median age of the Métis would increase by 4.9 years, to reach 31.9 years by 2017, while those of the North American Indians and the Inuit would reach 26.6 years and 24.0 years, respectively.

Figure 3.3
Age pyramid for the Métis population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Age pyramid for the Métis population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Figure 3.4
Age pyramid for the Inuit population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Age pyramid for the Inuit population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

The projections for the population of children less than 15 years old are subject to high uncertainty as they are directly affected by future fertility and the transfer of Aboriginality. Slightly more than one-third of the North American Indians were less than 15 years old in 2001, and their proportion was projected to reduce to 30.1% by 2017 (figure 3.2 ). Because of their relatively lower fertility level, the proportion of children among the Métis was the lowest at 28.6% in 2001. They would represent less than one-quarter of the total population in 2017 (figure 3.3 ). Inuit children aged 14 years and under would continue to represent a large share of the total population in the next 16 years (figure 3.4 ). In 2001, their proportion was 38.4%, and although it would decline slightly by 2017, one out of every three Inuit would still be younger than 15 years.

Under the medium-growth scenario, for all the Aboriginal groups, the dependency ratio was projected to decrease until around 2011 and then increase thereafter. In 2001, the ratio was 62 for the North American Indians. It would decline to 55 in 2011 and increase slightly to 57 by the end of the projection period. Because of the smaller proportion of children among the Métis, they would have the lowest dependency ratio among Aboriginal groups. It was 49 in 2001, would decrease to 44 in 2011 and rise to 47 in the following 6 years. The large proportion of children in the Inuit population has an impact on the working-age population as reflected in its high dependency ratio. In 2001, there were 71 non-working-age people per 100 persons of working age. As the working-age population becomes larger in coming years together with the small increase in births, the dependency ratio was projected to drop to 59 in 2011; then, as the growth of the working-age population slows down, it would climb slightly to 60 in 2017.

Geographic distribution of the Aboriginal populations

The following discussions on the geographical distribution of the Aboriginal population are carried out with respect to two sub-national levels of geographical classification: provincial/territorial and place of residence (reserves, urban CMA areas, urban non-CMA areas and rural areas). At the sub-national level, internal migration has a significant impact on the projected population, though the role played by differential fertility and mortality by region cannot be ignored. There is a greater uncertainty in the projections at the provincial/territorial and place-of-residence levels due to the presence of an additional component, migrations, and the volatile nature of temporal evolution of this component.

In the following sections, we present the projected Aboriginal population in the provinces and territories and its relative importance over the projected period. Then, we elaborate on the possible evolution of geographic concentration of the three Aboriginal groups. Finally, we present the growth of the Aboriginal populations living on reserves and outside reserves, and in urban and rural areas. The presentation is based on projections according to the medium-growth scenario, Scenario B.

The provinces and territories and their Aboriginal populations

Data from past censuses indicated that interprovincial migration represented a fairly small factor in the changes to the geographical distribution of Canada’s Aboriginal population 12, however interprovincial flows have the potential, in the longer term, to contribute to significant distribution shifts in the population.

In 2001, the largest Aboriginal populations were in Ontario and the four western provinces with Ontario leading, followed by British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan (chart 3.7 ). By 2017, Ontario would continue to have the highest absolute number of the Aboriginal population, increasing to 267,700 from 214,600 in 2001 (Scenario B). If the interprovincial migration trends from the second-half of the 1990s continue, it would imply that Alberta would have the largest gain in net migrants while British Columbia would be one of the leading provinces with negative net migration, Alberta may overtake British Columbia and become the second largest by the end of the projection period. The Aboriginal population in Alberta was projected to grow by 38.6% in the next 16 years, to reach 232,600 in 2017. The size of the Aboriginal population in Manitoba (221,100) may also surpass that in British Columbia (219,400) due to lower net losses in migration and higher fertility in Manitoba.

The importance of the Aboriginal peoples for the provinces and territories can be measured by the absolute size of their population or by the proportional size in relation to the general population of the region. By using the latter measure, the picture described above changes.

Chart 3.7
Aboriginal population by province and territory, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.7
Aboriginal population by province and territory, 2001 and 2017

Though one in five Aboriginal people lived in Ontario, they represented only about 2% of the total provincial population 13,  according to Scenario B, and this proportion is expected to remain unchanged by 2017 (chart 3.8 ). The proportion of the Aboriginal people in the Eastern provinces (including Quebec) is comparable to that in Ontario, all under 3% with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador. Because of the concentration of the Inuit in this most eastern province, the Aboriginal people accounted for slightly less than 4% of the total provincial population in 2001; its proportion was projected to increase to almost 6% in 2017.

The highest concentration of the Aboriginal population in 2001 was in the North and on the Prairies - it was not expected to change during the projection period (Scenario B). The 23,700 Aboriginal people in Nunavut represented 84.3% of the territory’s total population in 2001, the highest concentration in the country. This proportion would remain relatively stable during the projection period. The Aboriginal people represented more than 50% of the population of the Northwest Territories (50.5%) and almost one-quarter of the population of the Yukon Territory (23.8%) in 2001. We assumed that the internal migration trends of 1996 to 2001 would continue, meaning that net interprovincial migration would remain negative during the projection period in the Northwest Territories and the Yukon Territory; thus the increase in the proportion of the Aboriginal population in the two territories, 57.7% in the Northwest Territories and 35.3% in the Yukon Territory, mainly reflected the high natural increase of the Aboriginal peoples.

Chart 3.8
Proportion of the Aboriginal population in the total population by province and territory, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.8
Proportion of the Aboriginal population in the total population by
province and territory, 2001 and 2017

Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the provinces with the largest proportions of Aboriginal people in their population (chart 3.8 ). In 2001, there were 159,400 and 138,300 Aboriginal people in Manitoba and Saskatchewan respectively, each representing about 14% of the province’s total population. The share of the Aboriginal population in Saskatchewan (20.8%) was projected to increase more than that in Manitoba (18.4%) as Saskatchewan was assumed to be one of the gainers in net interprovincial migration while Manitoba is to remain one of the losing provinces.

The regional concentration can also be considered from the perspective of the Aboriginal population, by recognizing the regions where the biggest proportions of Aboriginal peoples live (chart 3.9 ).

Chart 3.9
Regional distribution of the Aboriginal population (%), by province and territory, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.9
Regional distribution of the Aboriginal population (%), by province
and territory, 2001 and 2017

In 2001, over half of the Aboriginal population was located within three provinces, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta. The most populous province in Canada was also the main province of residence for the Aboriginal population, as about one in five Aboriginal peoples (20.1%) lived in Ontario in 2001. British Columbia was the second most important region of residence for the Aboriginal peoples in 2001 (17.0% of their total population). It was followed by Alberta with 15.7%. However, by the end of the projection period, British Columbia (15.4%) may become the fourth main province of residence, being overtaken by Alberta (16.4%) and Manitoba (15.6%). Most likely because of its booming economy, Alberta had the largest gain in migration of the Aboriginal peoples between 1996 and 2001; this was assumed to continue during the course of the projection period. To the contrary, British Columbia in the past has experienced a net loss in migration due to the large out-migration of Aboriginal peoples. In the next 16 years, Manitoba was assumed to have lower net losses in migration and higher fertility than British Columbia.

In 2001, over two out of ten Aboriginal peoples (22.0%) lived in Saskatchewan and Quebec, with Quebec’s proportion being smaller, at 9.0%. The importance of these two provinces as places of residence for the Aboriginal peoples was projected to be the same in 2017.

The three territories and the four Atlantic provinces combined were residences for only one out of ten Aboriginal peoples of Canada in 2001. According to our medium-growth projections this proportion would not change by 2017.

Representation of the North American Indian, the Métis and the Inuit in the regions

For the North American Indians, the largest concentration of its population was in Ontario (22.7%) and British Columbia (18.7%). Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan each shared from 13% to 14% of the population of this group (chart 3.10 ). With the medium-growth scenario (assuming the continuation of the migration patterns observed from 1996 to 2001, and declining fertility and mortality), more than 50% of the North American Indians were projected to live either in Ontario, British Columbia or Manitoba by 2017. In absolute numbers, 517,200 of the 971,200 North American Indians would live in these three provinces by the end of the projection period. Because Saskatchewan is one of the high-fertility regions and is a province with a net gain in interprovincial migration, its share was projected to increase the most, to 14.7% in 2017.

Chart 3.10
Regional distribution of the Aboriginal population by group and province/territory, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.10
Regional distribution of the Aboriginal population by group and province/territory, 2001 and 2017

Alberta is the main province of residence for the Métis - 22.4% lived there in 2001 and almost one-quarter were projected to take up residence in that province by 2017. Alberta was assumed to have the largest gain in net migration in the coming years. The Métis population in Alberta was projected to increase from 68,500 in 2001 to 93,100 in 2017. About one in five Métis lived in Manitoba in 2001, and its share is not expected to change during the projection period. The regional share was projected to remain relatively stable in Ontario, around 16%. The proportion of the Métis living in Saskatchewan was projected to surpass British Columbia’s, increasing from 14.9% in 2001 to 15.6% in 2017, while that of British Columbia was projected to decrease from 15.3% to 13.5% during the same period. This was mainly due to Saskatchewan experiencing smaller net losses in interprovincial migration than British Columbia.

The Inuit are concentrated in four regions: Nunavut, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories, where 90% of their population resided in 2001 (chart 3.10 ). The regional shares of the Inuit population were projected to remain relatively stable during the projection period since they are less mobile than the other two groups of Aboriginal peoples. Newfoundland and Labrador was the exception, as its share of the Inuit population would decrease from 10.2% in 2001 to 8.5% in 2017 due to a net loss in migration.

Aboriginal populations on-reserve and outside-reserve areas

Between 1996 and 2001, more than three-quarters (77.0%) of the Aboriginal population who migrated, did so within the same province or territory. According to the 2001 Census, the North American Indians and the Métis moved predominantly between census metropolitan areas (large cities), while migrations between rural communities represented the majority of migration among the Inuit. Contrary to common belief, the reserves were not losing population due to migration, but the North American Indian population living on reserves experienced small net gains of migrants from other locations, particularly rural areas.

In 2001, about one-third of all Aboriginal peoples lived on Indian reserves, while 27% lived in large cities, 21% in smaller cities, and 19% in rural areas outside reserves (chart 3.11 ). By extrapolating the patterns of the second-half of the 1990s into the projected period, we established that reserves would be gaining the North American Indian migrants, and its share of the Aboriginal population could rise to 40% by 2017 (Scenario B). The overall share of the Aboriginal population living outside reserves was expected to decline from 67% in 2001 to 60% by 2017. In 2001, almost one-half (48%) of the Aboriginal population lived in urban areas, and this percentage was projected to decrease to 44% by 2017.

Chart 3.11
Residential distribution of the Aboriginal population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.11
Residential distribution of the Aboriginal population, Canada, 2001 and 2017

Most of the North American Indians live on reserves or in urban areas. Of the 713,100 North American Indians in 2001 (adjusted population), 341,300 or 48% lived on reserves and 291,200 or 41% lived in urban areas. About 11% of the peoples from this group resided in rural areas outside reserves. The proportion of those living on reserves was projected to increase to 57% in the next 16 years mostly due to a net gain in migration from rural areas. The majority of the Métis lives in urban areas, and they are concentrated in larger cities. In 2001, the share of those living in urban areas was 68%, with 39% in CMAs and 29% outside CMAs but in urban areas. Their concentration in those places of residence was not expected to change much by 2017. The Inuit are concentrated in rural areas and this situation was expected to continue in the near future, as about seven in ten Inuit people would be living there.

The residential projections described in this section were based on the extrapolation of the residential migration patterns from the late 1990s. These patterns were at variance from those of the early 1990s. If we assume that the post-2001 period would experience a reversal of the migration patterns to those of the early 1990s, we would have a different picture of the residential distribution of the Aboriginal population in 2017 (Scenario C). The most important shift would be toward a higher proportion of the Aboriginal population with residence on reserves, by 3 percentage points, compared to Scenario B results. This shift would occur mostly at the expense of larger cities, whose share would decrease from 25% (Scenario B) to 22% (Scenario C). The populations of the Métis and the North American Indians in larger cities would be affected to the same degree.

Potential future growth of the Aboriginal population in high concentration regions

The Aboriginal population represents a large proportion of the total population in the five regions in Canada: the three territories of Yukon, Northwest and Nunavut, and the two provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In Nunavut, the largest proportion in the country was projected to remain high during the course of the projection period while the proportion in the other four regions was expected to increase in the next 16 years. What would be the implications of this differential growth in already high concentration regions of the Aboriginal population? Two segments of the population deserve special attention: children and young adults.

Although the Aboriginal population accounted for only 3% of the Canadian population, Aboriginal children aged 0 to 14 years represented 6% of all children in Canada in 2001. The proportion of Aboriginal children was expected to be much larger in the territories, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The Aboriginal population in Nunavut would represent 84% of the territory’s total population while their children would account for 85% of Nunavut’s children population by 2017 (chart 3.12 ). The number of Aboriginal children aged 14 years and under, in this territory, would increase from 9,700 in 2001 to 12,300 by 2017. In the case of the Yukon Territory, the increase in the share of the Aboriginal children population would be substantial, from 34% in 2001 to 56% by 2017.

At the end of the projection period, about seven in ten children under 15 years, living in the Northwest Territories, would be Aboriginal, an increase from 64% in 2001. At 14% each, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were the two provinces with the highest concentration of Aboriginal population among the ten provinces in 2001, but the proportion of children was much larger, at about 26% and 24% respectively. Because of the cumulative effect of the higher fertility of the Aboriginal population in both provinces, and migration gain for Saskatchewan, the proportion of Aboriginal children was projected to increase to 35% in Saskatchewan and 30% in Manitoba by 2017. Outside of these five regions, Newfoundland and Labrador was another region with very high projected growth in the population of Aboriginal children - from 6%, the average level in Canada, to over 11% in 2017.

Chart 3.12
Proportion of the Aboriginal population aged 0 to 14 years (%) of all children by territory, selected provinces and Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.12
Proportion of the Aboriginal population aged 0 to 14 years
(%) of all children by territory, selected provinces and Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.13
Proportion of the Aboriginal population aged 20 to 29 years (%) of all young adults, by territory, selected provinces and Canada, 2001 and 2017

Chart 3.13
Proportion of the Aboriginal population aged 20 to 29 years
(%) of all young adults, by territory, selected provinces and Canada, 2001 and 2017

The growing representation of Aboriginal children in these regions has important implications. It seems that early education could be a future pressure point, resulting from the high growth of the Aboriginal population in Canada, and specifically in these five regions.

Another pressure area in the regions with a high concentration of Aboriginal peoples is expected to come from the challenges related to the growing number of young adults (ages 20 to 29 years). Over the next 16 years, the proportion of the Aboriginal young adult population in the general young adult population will show a phenomenal increase, especially in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. It may almost double in Saskatchewan, reaching 30% in 2017, from 17% in 2001 (chart 3.13 ). The proportion of Aboriginal young adults in the general young adult population in Manitoba was 17% in 2001 and it was projected to go up to 23% by 2017.



Home | Search | Contact Us | Français Return to top of page
Date Modified: 2005-07-13 Important Notices