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Projections of the Aboriginal populations, Canada, provinces and territories: Projection model - Notes

1According to the 2001 Canadian Census, there were 6,600 immigrants who identified Aboriginal, with one-third of them arriving in Canada during the 10-year period prior to the census. The 2000 U.S. Census indicated that international emigration of Aboriginal peoples is also very small as it counted just over 8,000 people who declared to be American Indian or Alaskan native born in Northern America (2,400 of them entered the U.S. during the 10 years prior to the census).
2The 2001 Census asks if a person is a Treaty Indian or a Registered Indian as defined by the Indian Act of Canada. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada refer to Status Indians as people who are entitled to have their names included on the Indian Register. This paper uses the 2001 Census term.
3Aboriginal status can be defined using identity or using ancestry, also called ethnic origin. In the 2001 Census, there were 1,319,900 people who reported an Aboriginal ethnic origin.
4This is a significant decrease when compared to the 77 reserves incompletely enumerated in 1996. Their estimated total population was 43,600.
5We took full advantage of estimates of net undercoverage available from census coverage. For the reserve population, we used an estimate of 10.3% for the 2001 Census, which was down from 14.7% estimated for the 1996 Census. For Aboriginal populations living outside reserves, we used the same rate of net undercoverage as for the general population - 2.99% in 2001 (2.24% in 1996). Our choice was dictated by the lack of a specific estimate of net undercoverage for outside reserve populations.
6Estimates of fertility rates could be derived directly from the question on the number of children ever born by women. This question was asked only in decennial Censuses from 1961 to 1991. Since the 1991 Census this question was not asked; indirect techniques such as "own-children method" have to be used. This method is based on the assumption that children under the age of 5 years at the time of the census represent the survivors of all children born during the five years preceding the census.
7It has been demonstrated that these poorest neighbourhoods would have not only a lower average household income but scored lower on other measures of socio-economic conditions such as level of education, unemployment, professional hierarchy or residence ownership.
8Létourneau, E. 1994. Projections de la population des Inuit du Québec, 1991-2016. Direction des statistiques socio-démographiques, Institut de la statistique du Québec.