Population Projections for Canada (2021 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2021 to 2043)

Release date: August 22, 2022

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Introduction

Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories are traditionally produced every five years, closely following the availability of adjusted population estimates based on the latest five-year census. However, this edition is ahead of the production of the adjusted estimates for the 2021 Census as it is a necessary update to reflect recent developments in Canadian demographics, including rising immigration targets and the COVID-19 pandemic. Partly repeating the assumptions of the previous edition, the Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043) (hereinafter CPPT2018) as well as the long-term targets collected in the 2018 Expert Survey of Future Demographic Trends, Note these projections have as their base population the 2021 population, as estimated by Statistics Canada's Population Estimates program.

This document summarizes the main results of the Population Projections for Canada (2021 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2021 to 2043). The numbers are available in two tables in the Common Exit Data Warehouse: 17-10-0057-01 (population counts) and 17-10-0058-01 (population growth components). They can also be accessed using a new interactive data visualization tool (Statistics Canada catalogue number 71-607-X-2022015). Finally, the publication Population Projections for Canada (2021 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2021 to 2043): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions provides information on the methods and assumptions underlying the projections.

Cautionary note

The population projections produced by Statistics Canada’s Demography Division are not intended to be interpreted as predictions about what will happen in the future. They should instead be understood as an exercise designed to investigate what the Canadian population might become in the years ahead according to various scenarios of possible future change. For this reason, Statistics Canada always publishes several scenarios and formulates several explicit assumptions regarding the main components of population growth. Accordingly, users are encouraged to consider several scenarios when they analyze the projection results. It is also worth noting that the accuracy of the projections produced depends on a number of factors. Various events—for example, economic crises, wars or natural catastrophes—are difficult (or impossible) to anticipate and can affect the growth and composition of the Canadian population. For this reason, Statistics Canada revises the population projections on a regular basis, so that the context in which they are developed is taken into account.

Assumptions and selection of scenarios

The purpose of having multiple projection scenarios is to reflect the uncertainty associated with the future. The projection scenarios are constructed by combining a number of assumptions regarding the future evolution of each of the components of population growth. The six medium-growth scenarios (M1, M2, M3, M4, M5 and M6) were developed on the basis of assumptions reflecting different internal migration patterns observed in the past. Each scenario puts forward a separate assumption to reflect the volatility of this component.

The low-growth (LG) and high-growth (HG) scenarios bring together assumptions that are consistent with either lower or higher population growth than in the medium-growth scenarios at the Canada level. For example, assumptions that entail high fertility, low mortality, high immigration, low emigration and high numbers of non-permanent residents are the foundation of the high-growth scenario.

The fast-aging (FA) and slow-aging (SA) scenarios bring together assumptions that are consistent with either faster or slower population aging than in the medium-growth scenarios. For example, assumptions that entail high fertility, high mortality, high immigration, low emigration and high numbers of non-permanent residents are the foundation of the slow-aging scenario.

The ten scenarios are intended to provide a plausible and sufficiently broad range of projected numbers to take account of the uncertainties inherent in any projection exercise. Note that the low-growth (LG), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios all use the same interprovincial migration assumption as the one used in the M1 scenario. The migration rates of assumption M1 over the first ten years consist of a linear interpolation of the average migration rates observed between 2018/2019 and 2020/2021 towards the average rates observed between 1991/1992 and 2016/2017, rates that remain constant thereafter (after 2030/2031)

Projection assumptions and scenarios are summarized in Table 1. In-depth descriptions of the projection assumptions and their rationale are provided in the technical report accompanying these projections, entitled Population Projections for Canada (2021 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2021 to 2043): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada catalogue number 91-620).


Table 1
Summary of long-term projection scenario assumptions
Table summary
This table displays the results of Summary of long-term projection scenario assumptions. The information is grouped by Component (appearing as row headers), Scenario, Low growth, Medium growth, High growth, Slow aging and Fast aging (appearing as column headers).
Component Scenario
Low growth Medium growth High growth Slow aging Fast aging
LG M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 HG SA FA
Fertility (period total fertility rate) (2042/2043) 1.40 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.79 1.79 1.40
Immigration (rate per thousand) (2042/2043) 6.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 12.0 12.0 6.5
Life expectancy at birth, males (2042/2043) 82.6 years 83.7 years 83.7 years 83.7 years 83.7 years 83.7 years 83.7 years 84.8 years 82.6 years 84.8 years
Life expectancy at birth, females (2042/2043) 86.6 years 87.4 years 87.4 years 87.4 years 87.4 years 87.4 years 87.4 years 88.2 years 86.6 years 88.2 years
Interprovincial migration (reference period) Recent trends (2018/2019 to 2020/2021) transitioning linearly in 10 years to long term trends (1991/1992 to 2016/2017) Recent trends (2018/2019 to 2020/2021) transitioning linearly in 10 years to long term trends (1991/1992 to 2016/2017) 1995/1996 to 2010/2011 2003/2004 to 2008/2009 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 2014/2015 to 2016/2017 2018/2019 to 2020/2021 Recent trends (2018/2019 to 2020/2021) transitioning linearly in 10 years to long term trends (1991/1992 to 2016/2017) Recent trends (2018/2019 to 2020/2021) transitioning linearly in 10 years to long term trends (1991/1992 to 2016/2017) Recent trends (2018/2019 to 2020/2021) transitioning linearly in 10 years to long term trends (1991/1992 to 2016/2017)
Non-permanent residents (cumulative change from 2022 to 2043) 0 536,500 536,500 536,500 536,500 536,500 536,500 926,800 926,800 0
Emigration (gross migraproduction rate per thousand) (2042/2043) 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.1 2.3
Return emigration (gross migraproduction rate per thousand) (2042/2043) 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.3
Net temporary emigration (gross migraproduction rate per thousand) (2042/2043) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Results at the Canada level, 2021 to 2068

Highlights - Canada

  • According to the various projection scenarios, the Canadian population, estimated at 38.2 million in 2021, would continue to increase over the next decades to between 44.9 million (low-growth (LG) scenario) and 74.0 million (high-growth (HG) scenario) by 2068. Under the medium-growth (M1) scenario, the Canadian population would reach 56.5 million in 2068.
  • From an average of 10.4 per thousand over the last 30 years, the annual rate of growth would slowly diminish to 7.1 per thousand by 2067/2068 according to the medium-growth (M1) scenario. In comparison, by 2067/2068, Canada’s annual growth rates would increase to 14.7 per thousand under the high-growth scenario (HG) and would decrease to 1.7 per thousand under the low-growth scenario (LG).
  • In all scenarios, migratory increase would be the main driver of population growth at the national level, continuing a pattern that began in the early 1990s.
  • The proportion of seniors (aged 65 and over) in the population would increase from 18.5% in 2021 to between 21.6% (slow-aging (SA) scenario) and 29.8% (fast-aging (FA) scenario) in 2068. The increase in the share of seniors would be less pronounced after 2030, year after which all members of the baby boom will have reached the age of 65.
  • The proportion of children (people aged between 0 and 14) in the Canadian population has greatly decreased since 1962, when it peaked at 34.0%. Estimated at 15.7% in 2021, the projected proportion of children decreases in all scenarios except in the slow aging (SA) and high-growth (HG) scenarios.
  • The number of older seniors (aged 85 and over) would continue to increase rapidly in the coming years, particularly between 2031 and 2050 as the baby-boom cohort enters this age group. According to the projection scenarios, the population aged 85 and over would increase from 871,400 in 2021 to between 2.8 million (scenario LG) and 3.6 million (scenario HG) by 2068.
  • The mean age of the Canadian population would fall between 42.2 years (scenario SA) and 47.9 years (scenario FA) in 2068, compared to 41.7 years in 2021.

Growth of the Canadian population from 2021 to 2068

The Canadian population has grown substantially in recent years, increasing from 30.7 million in 2000 to 38.2 million in 2021. The results of the various projection scenarios show that growth would continue over the next decades, albeit at a slower pace than that recently observed. According to the medium-growth (M1) scenario, the Canadian population would grow steadily, increasing from 38.2 million in 2021 to 56.5 million in 2068 (Chart 1). The annual rate of growth would slowly diminish and then plateau to around 7.1 per thousand by 2067/2068, considerably lower than the average rate recorded over the past 30 years (10.4 per thousand for the period 1991/1992 to 2020/2021).

Chart 1

Data table for Chart 1 
Chart 1
Population, historic (1971 to 2021) and projected (2022 to 2068) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1) and high-growth (HG) scenarios, Canada

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenario (M1) and High-growth scenario (HG), calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenario (M1) High-growth scenario (HG)
in thousands
1971 21,962.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1972 22,218.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1973 22,491.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1974 22,808.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1975 23,143.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1976 23,449.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1977 23,725.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1978 23,963.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1979 24,201.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1980 24,515.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1981 24,819.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1982 25,116.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1983 25,366.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1984 25,607.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1985 25,842.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1986 26,100.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1987 26,446.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1988 26,791.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1989 27,276.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1990 27,691.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1991 28,037.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1992 28,371.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1993 28,684.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1994 29,000.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 29,302.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 29,610.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 29,905.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 30,155.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 30,401.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 30,685.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 31,020.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 31,360.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 31,644.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 31,940.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 32,243.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 32,571.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 32,889.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 33,247.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 33,628.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 34,004.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 34,339.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 34,714.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 35,083.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 35,437.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 35,702.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 36,109.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 36,545.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 37,065.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 37,601.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2020 38,037.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2021 38,246.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 38,763.3 38,882.0 38,957.4
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 39,147.0 39,426.0 39,633.9
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 39,512.2 39,953.1 40,318.5
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 39,861.1 40,464.7 40,992.8
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40,163.9 40,964.6 41,653.6
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40,431.0 41,452.7 42,299.2
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40,676.1 41,928.3 42,929.5
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40,902.4 42,391.3 43,545.4
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41,111.9 42,840.8 44,150.0
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41,306.3 43,276.3 44,748.1
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41,487.2 43,697.3 45,346.0
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41,655.1 44,108.7 45,951.2
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41,811.7 44,509.9 46,563.7
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41,958.1 44,901.1 47,184.2
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,095.8 45,282.3 47,813.7
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,226.3 45,654.2 48,452.9
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,350.4 46,017.8 49,102.2
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,469.2 46,374.0 49,762.2
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,584.0 46,724.2 50,433.7
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,696.4 47,070.0 51,116.9
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,807.1 47,413.6 51,812.3
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42,916.7 47,757.0 52,521.0
2044 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,025.7 48,097.4 53,235.8
2045 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,129.8 48,435.0 53,956.6
2046 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,229.5 48,770.2 54,683.6
2047 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,325.2 49,103.1 55,417.4
2048 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,416.6 49,433.9 56,158.5
2049 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,503.7 49,763.0 56,907.6
2050 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,587.0 50,090.8 57,665.6
2051 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,667.1 50,418.1 58,433.3
2052 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,744.6 50,745.5 59,211.9
2053 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,819.8 51,073.7 60,003.1
2054 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,892.7 51,403.7 60,807.9
2055 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43,964.2 51,736.3 61,627.3
2056 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,034.5 52,072.2 62,463.4
2057 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,104.3 52,412.3 63,317.3
2058 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,173.8 52,757.2 64,189.5
2059 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,243.4 53,107.5 65,080.6
2060 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,314.2 53,463.4 65,991.8
2061 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,386.5 53,825.5 66,923.6
2062 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,459.7 54,193.7 67,876.0
2063 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,533.9 54,568.2 68,848.8
2064 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,609.1 54,948.6 69,842.1
2065 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,684.9 55,334.8 70,855.7
2066 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,760.7 55,726.4 71,889.7
2067 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,837.3 56,122.9 72,943.9
2068 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44,914.3 56,523.6 74,018.0

According to the high-growth (HG) scenario, the Canadian population would almost double to a little more than 74 million in 2068, mainly a result of rises in immigration, fertility and life expectancy. By 2067/2068, the annual growth rate would be 14.7 per thousand, higher than the average rate recorded over the past 30 years.

The low-growth (LG) scenario offers a different picture; Canada would still experience population growth, but the rate of growth would decline rapidly over the next decades. Under this scenario, the Canadian population would increase to 44.9 million in 2068, a growth of about 17.4% from its 2021 level. The pace of growth would decrease to 1.7 per thousand in 2067/2068.

Age structure of the Canadian population

Along with the size of the population, the age structure of the population has important consequences for society. For example, a high proportion of people of working age tends to be favourable to the economy and strong GDP, while high proportions of children and the elderly tend to put strong pressures on public spending.

Population aging has emerged as a defining demographic trend in most industrialized countries including Canada. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over has been slowly increasing since the early 20th century, a result of decreases in mortality as well as fertility. Projection results show that population aging in Canada will continue over the coming decades. According to all projection scenarios, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will continue at an accelerated pace over the next decade in particular: just as the baby-boom cohort temporarily interrupted population aging in the 1950s and 1960s, this cohort will accelerate the phenomenon over the next two decades. By 2030 (the year when the youngest baby boomers turn 65 years), the proportion of the total population aged 65 and over would increase to between 21.3% (slow-aging (SA) scenario) and 22.9% (fast-aging (FA) scenario), from 18.5% in 2021. In most projection scenarios, this proportion would continue to increase in the remaining years of the projections, but at a slower pace, reaching between 21.6% (scenario SA) and 29.8% (scenario FA) by 2068.

Under the medium growth (M1) scenario, Canada is expected to have 8.3 million children in 2068, a 37.4% increase from the estimated 6.0 million in 2021. The proportion of children reaches 14.6% in 2068, which represents a decrease from the estimated value of 15.7% in 2021. This is in fact a continuation of the historical trends observed globally since 1962, when the proportion of children in the population peaked at 34.0%. In the fast-aging (FA) scenario, the proportion of children decreases further to 12.5% in 2068. Only the slow-aging (SA) and the high-growth (HG) scenario  propose an increase in the proportion of children, reaching 17.0% and 16.8% in 2068, respectively.

The number of people aged 85 and over has been steadily increasing as a share of the total Canadian population over time. In 2021, the Canadian population had 871,400 persons aged 85 and over, more than six times as many as 50 years earlier in 1971 (139,000). The members of the baby-boom cohorts will enter this age group between the years 2031 and 2050. This phenomenon, and to a lesser extent, the anticipated gradual increase in life expectancy, would cause the number of people aged 85 and over to increase rapidly during this period in all scenarios, reaching between 2.5 million (scenario LG) and 3.0 million (scenario HG) by 2050 (Chart 2). In subsequent years, the population in this age group continues to increase, but at a much slower pace: by 2068, the number of people aged 85 and over would be between 2.8 million (scenario LG) and 3.6 million (scenario HG).

Older seniors would represent a growing share of the total population in the coming decades. From 2.3% of the total population in 2021, people aged 85 and over would represent a peak of 4.6% of the population in 2050 according to the slow-aging (SA) scenario. In contrast, under the fast-aging (FA) scenario, older seniors would continue to increase as a proportion of the total population throughout the projection, representing 7.2% of the population by 2068. People aged 85 and over would also represent a growing share of the senior population in the coming decades. From 12.3% in 2021, this share would reach a peak of 22.0% in 2050 under the slow-aging (SA) scenario and would reach a peak of 24.6% in 2051 under the fast-aging (FA) scenario.

Chart 2

Data table for Chart 2 
Chart 2
Number of persons aged 85 years and over, historic (1921 to 2021) and projected (2022 to 2068) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1) and high-growth (HG) scenarios, Canada

Table summary
This table displays the results of Number of persons aged 85 years and over. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenario (M1) and High-growth scenario (HG), calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenario (M1) High-growth scenario (HG)
number
1921 20,700 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1922 20,900 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1923 20,900 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1924 20,900 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1925 21,100 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1926 21,500 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1927 21,800 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1928 22,600 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1929 23,100 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1930 24,100 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1931 25,300 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1932 26,000 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1933 26,800 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1934 28,400 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1935 29,900 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1936 31,200 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1937 32,300 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1938 33,100 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1939 33,600 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1940 34,500 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1941 35,700 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1942 36,700 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1943 37,800 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1944 38,800 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1945 39,400 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1946 43,300 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1947 47,500 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1948 48,800 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1949 51,800 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1950 52,900 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1951 52,400 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1952 54,100 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1953 56,000 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1954 58,400 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1955 61,300 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1956 64,500 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1957 66,400 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1958 68,900 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1959 72,100 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1960 75,400 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1961 80,823 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1962 85,250 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1963 90,107 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1964 95,262 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1965 99,075 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1966 102,948 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1967 107,769 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1968 113,208 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1969 120,305 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1970 127,987 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1971 139,067 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1972 144,587 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1973 150,191 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1974 155,917 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1975 160,362 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1976 166,158 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1977 171,133 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1978 176,282 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1979 182,200 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1980 187,858 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1981 195,381 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1982 202,289 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1983 207,862 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1984 215,088 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1985 222,992 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1986 231,375 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1987 242,097 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1988 251,850 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1989 263,920 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1990 275,852 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1991 287,170 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1992 297,905 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1993 309,008 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1994 319,814 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 330,728 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 343,783 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 355,572 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 369,793 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 385,888 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 403,954 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 418,197 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 431,944 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 445,134 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 459,135 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 483,994 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 516,563 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 545,272 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 571,816 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 598,896 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 626,533 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 650,718 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 676,778 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 700,718 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 723,445 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 743,490 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 771,720 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 796,304 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 817,520 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 838,882 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2020 856,146 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2021 871,432 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 888,400 890,700 893,300
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 905,800 911,200 918,600
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 926,600 935,800 948,400
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 951,200 964,600 981,200
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 982,200 999,600 1,019,900
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,016,700 1,038,700 1,062,900
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,059,000 1,085,800 1,114,500
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,104,000 1,136,200 1,169,500
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,149,800 1,187,700 1,226,000
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,204,300 1,248,600 1,292,100
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,286,000 1,337,400 1,387,800
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,362,300 1,421,600 1,479,000
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,432,100 1,499,300 1,563,900
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,500,000 1,575,700 1,647,900
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,566,700 1,651,100 1,731,400
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,632,400 1,725,700 1,814,400
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,701,000 1,804,000 1,901,600
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,774,800 1,888,000 1,995,100
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,852,500 1,976,300 2,093,500
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 1,926,900 2,061,400 2,189,000
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,002,800 2,148,400 2,286,300
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,078,700 2,235,600 2,384,600
2044 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,151,400 2,319,700 2,480,000
2045 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,224,600 2,404,400 2,575,900
2046 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,295,400 2,486,800 2,669,900
2047 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,358,500 2,561,300 2,755,300
2048 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,423,400 2,637,500 2,843,000
2049 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,480,300 2,705,600 2,922,400
2050 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,523,200 2,758,900 2,986,400
2051 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,543,200 2,787,900 3,024,900
2052 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,546,100 2,798,300 3,043,600
2053 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,545,500 2,804,300 3,058,000
2054 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,546,900 2,812,400 3,074,300
2055 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,552,000 2,824,100 3,094,200
2056 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,558,300 2,836,700 3,115,400
2057 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,555,900 2,840,200 3,127,200
2058 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,551,800 2,842,000 3,137,400
2059 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,551,100 2,847,300 3,151,400
2060 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,559,800 2,862,500 3,176,100
2061 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,572,600 2,882,200 3,206,100
2062 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,590,000 2,907,100 3,241,700
2063 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,611,700 2,937,000 3,283,400
2064 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,642,400 2,977,200 3,336,100
2065 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,683,700 3,029,400 3,402,200
2066 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,730,900 3,089,000 3,476,900
2067 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,781,500 3,153,000 3,557,300
2068 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 2,836,900 3,222,700 3,644,700

Another indicator of the aging of Canada’s population is the increase in its mean age. Between 1921 and 2021, the mean age increased about 14 years, from 27.3 years to 41.7 years. Projection scenarios indicate that the mean age would continue to increase steadily at least until 2034. Later in the projection period, the mean age of the population would continue to rise gradually in the fast-aging (FA) scenario, would decrease slightly in the slow-aging (SA) scenario and would stabilize in the medium-growth (M1) scenario, reflecting in large part the various fertility assumptions across scenarios. According to the projection scenarios, the mean age of the Canadian population would fall between 42.2 years (scenario SA) and 47.9 years (scenario FA) in 2068 (Chart 3).

Chart 3

Data table for Chart 3 
Chart 3
Mean age, historic (1921 to 2021) and projected (2022 to 2068) according to the fast-aging (FA), medium-growth (M1) and slow-aging (SA) scenarios, Canada
Table summary
This table displays the results of Mean age. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Fast-aging scenario (FA), Medium-growth scenario (M1) and Slow-aging scenario (SA), calculated using in years units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Fast-aging scenario (FA) Medium-growth scenario (M1) Slow-aging scenario (SA)
in years
1921 27.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1922 27.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1923 27.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1924 27.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1925 27.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1926 27.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1927 28.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1928 28.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1929 28.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1930 28.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1931 28.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1932 28.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1933 28.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1934 29.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1935 29.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1936 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1937 29.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1938 29.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1939 30.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1940 30.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1941 30.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1942 30.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1943 30.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1944 30.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1945 30.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1946 30.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1947 30.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1948 30.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1949 30.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1950 30.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1951 30.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1952 30.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1953 30.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1954 30.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1955 29.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1956 29.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1957 29.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1958 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1959 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1960 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1961 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1962 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1963 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1964 29.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1965 29.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1966 29.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1967 29.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1968 30.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1969 30.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1970 30.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1971 30.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1972 31.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1973 31.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1974 31.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1975 31.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1976 31.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1977 32.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1978 32.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1979 32.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1980 32.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1981 33.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1982 33.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1983 33.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1984 33.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1985 34.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1986 34.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1987 34.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1988 34.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1989 34.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1990 35.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1991 35.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1992 35.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1993 35.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1994 35.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 36.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 36.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 36.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 36.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 37.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 37.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 37.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 37.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 38.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 38.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 38.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 38.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 39.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 39.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 39.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 39.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 39.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 40.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 40.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 40.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 40.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 40.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 41.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 41.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 41.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2020 41.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2021 41.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.9 41.8 41.8
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.1 41.9 41.8
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.3 42.1 41.9
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.5 42.2 41.9
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.7 42.3 42.0
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.9 42.5 42.1
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.1 42.6 42.1
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.4 42.8 42.2
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.6 42.9 42.2
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.8 43.0 42.3
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.0 43.1 42.4
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.2 43.3 42.4
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.5 43.4 42.5
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.7 43.5 42.5
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 43.6 42.5
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.0 43.7 42.5
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.2 43.8 42.5
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.4 43.9 42.5
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.5 43.9 42.5
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.6 44.0 42.5
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.8 44.1 42.5
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 44.1 42.4
2044 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.0 44.2 42.4
2045 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.1 44.2 42.4
2046 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.2 44.2 42.3
2047 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.3 44.3 42.3
2048 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.3 44.3 42.3
2049 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.4 44.3 42.2
2050 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.5 44.4 42.2
2051 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.6 44.4 42.2
2052 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.6 44.4 42.2
2053 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.7 44.5 42.1
2054 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.8 44.5 42.1
2055 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.9 44.5 42.1
2056 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.9 44.6 42.1
2057 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.0 44.6 42.1
2058 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.1 44.6 42.1
2059 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.2 44.7 42.1
2060 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.2 44.7 42.1
2061 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.3 44.8 42.1
2062 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.4 44.8 42.1
2063 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.5 44.9 42.1
2064 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.6 44.9 42.1
2065 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.7 45.0 42.2
2066 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.7 45.0 42.2
2067 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.8 45.1 42.2
2068 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.9 45.1 42.2

Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2021 to 2043

Highlights - Provinces and Territories

  • Continuing long-term trends, the population east of Ontario would continue to decrease as a share of the total Canadian population, according to all projection scenarios. Specifically, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec would experience a decrease in their demographic weight from 2021 to 2043. In contrast, under almost all scenarios, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta would experience an increase in their respective demographic weights.
  • In all scenarios, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populous provinces in Canada over the next 20 years, despite the fact that their combined demographic weight decreases.
  • Average annual growth rates would vary considerably among the provinces and territories. Some provinces and territories would experience population decrease in certain scenarios.
  • As population aging continues, all provinces and territories would see an increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in the coming years. The number of older seniors (aged 85 and over) is expected to increase rapidly in all provinces and territories, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador, in Alberta, in Yukon and the territories.

General results

The projections for the provinces and territories include an additional component compared to the projections for Canada as a whole: interprovincial migration. For several provinces, interprovincial migration can have a substantial impact on population growth. It is also one of the most volatile components, as it is largely influenced by many non-demographic factors such as differentials in wages and employment opportunities among the provinces and territories.

According to the projection scenarios, most provinces and territories would experience an increase in population between 2021 and 2043 (Table 2). However, some Atlantic provinces and the Northwest Territories would experience a population decrease during the period in certain projection scenarios.

With the exception of Prince Edward Island, provinces located east of Ontario show a growth rate below the national average, while the Prairie provinces are projected to experience growth above the Canadian average in almost all scenarios. As a result, the geographic distribution of the population within Canada could change over the next 20 years. Most scenarios indicate that the population share of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec would either decrease or remain constant, while the population of the Prairie provinces would account for an increased proportion of the national population.

In the coming decades, the aging population projected at the national level would also be experienced by each of the provinces and territories, although to varying degrees. The proportion of people aged 65 and over, as well as the proportion of people aged 85 and over, would increase in all regions of Canada (Table 3). The largest increases in the population aged 85 and over would be observed in the Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, Yukon and the territories. The Northwest Territories and Nunavut would have the lowest proportions of people aged 85 and over in 2043, as it was the case in 2021. Conversely, the highest proportions of older seniors (aged 85 and over) in Canada are expected to be in the Atlantic provinces, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick, as well as in Quebec and British Columbia.


Table 2
Total population, historic (2021) and projected (2043) according to ten scenarios, Canada, provinces and territories
Table summary
This table displays the results of Total population. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Historic (2021), Projected (2043), Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), Slow-aging scenario (SA), Fast-aging scenario (FA), M1, M2, M3, M4, M5 and M6, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Historic (2021) Projected (2043)
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG) Slow-aging scenario (SA) Fast-aging scenario (FA)
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
in thousands
Canada 38,246.1 42,916.7 47,757.0 47,767.9 47,766.2 47,769.4 47,748.4 47,741.3 52,521.0 51,709.3 43,659.5
Newfoundland and Labrador 520.6 444.2 477.9 467.8 482.7 517.1 501.0 471.7 509.5 489.6 463.7
Prince Edward Island 164.3 185.5 208.7 203.2 195.3 195.3 201.1 228.3 231.4 227.0 189.5
Nova Scotia 992.1 1,006.3 1,099.3 1,057.6 1,032.7 1,056.8 1,084.7 1,236.3 1,196.3 1,173.0 1,028.3
New Brunswick 789.2 791.1 857.0 842.1 828.9 826.2 830.1 915.1 917.8 900.5 807.5
Quebec 8,604.5 8,704.7 9,472.3 9,444.8 9,471.7 9,445.6 9,384.3 9,592.9 10,196.7 10,014.5 8,878.0
Ontario 14,826.3 16,982.3 19,065.3 19,056.5 18,694.5 19,022.5 19,269.1 19,128.9 21,147.2 20,846.2 17,252.2
Manitoba 1,383.8 1,535.0 1,730.0 1,744.1 1,724.4 1,756.7 1,744.7 1,673.7 1,944.4 1,899.1 1,576.7
Saskatchewan 1,179.8 1,348.4 1,527.4 1,548.8 1,593.7 1,635.7 1,545.9 1,412.9 1,696.7 1,653.0 1,388.9
Alberta 4,442.9 5,833.3 6,498.4 6,743.0 6,852.6 6,469.6 6,036.8 5,955.4 7,158.0 7,077.6 5,904.6
British Columbia 5,214.8 5,947.3 6,669.7 6,518.5 6,744.2 6,683.1 6,987.0 6,962.7 7,360.5 7,269.8 6,028.2
Yukon 43.0 46.9 51.3 46.3 52.2 57.4 59.8 61.1 55.6 54.7 47.8
Northwest Territories 45.5 45.7 50.4 46.5 45.5 50.9 53.2 52.8 55.3 54.0 47.0
Nunavut 39.4 46.1 49.2 48.7 47.8 52.4 50.8 49.4 51.7 50.5 47.2

Table 3
Number of persons aged 85 years and over, historic (2021) and projected (2043) according to five scenarios, Canada, provinces and territories
Table summary
This table displays the results of Number of persons aged 85 years and over. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Historic (2021), Projected (2043), Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenario (M1), High-growth scenario (HG), Slow-aging scenario (SA) and Fast-aging scenario (FA), calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Historic (2021) Projected (2043)
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenario (M1) High-growth scenario (HG) Slow-aging scenario (SA) Fast-aging scenario (FA)
in thousands
Canada 871.5 2,078.7 2,235.6 2,384.6 2,110.3 2,350.0
Newfoundland and Labrador 10.5 28.4 32.2 35.6 28.4 35.6
Prince Edward Island 3.6 8.6 9.4 10.1 8.7 10.0
Nova Scotia 23.3 56.0 60.2 64.4 56.1 64.3
New Brunswick 19.4 46.9 45.8 53.3 46.9 53.3
Quebec 216.0 486.2 523.1 559.0 489.1 556.0
Ontario 345.1 804.3 864.6 921.0 822.4 901.2
Manitoba 29.2 59.8 67.1 73.9 60.2 73.4
Saskatchewan 27.2 53.1 60.0 66.2 53.4 65.8
Alberta 73.0 218.7 233.1 246.4 221.4 243.5
British Columbia 123.5 313.9 333.2 351.4 320.9 343.9
Yukon 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7
Northwest Territories 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2
Nunavut 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3

Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories: interactive dashboard

For interactive insights on the most recent population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, see the interactive dashboard “Population projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories”


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