Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Quebec

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  • Quebec’s population experiences positive growth over the next 25 years in all projection scenarios. From 8,390,500 in 2018, the population would increase to between 8,707,100 (scenario LG) and 10,361,800 (scenario HG) by 2043.
  • The projected average annual growth rates for Quebec remain lower than the projected rates for Canada in all scenarios. As a result, Quebec’s demographic weight within the nation decreases in all scenarios over the next 25 years, ranging between 20.1% (scenarios HG and SA) and 20.6% (scenarios LG and FA) by 2043, compared to 22.6% in 2018. However, it would remain Canada’s second most populous province in all scenarios.
  • Net international migration is the main driver of population growth in Quebec in all scenarios. Positive net international migration would offset negative or diminishing natural increase (related to population aging) and interprovincial migration losses in all scenarios.
  • From 42.5 years in 2018, the projected median age of the Quebec population would range between 42.3 years (scenario SA) and 47.3 years (scenario FA) by 2043. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to be between 22.9% (scenario SA) and 28.0% (scenario FA) in 2043, higher than in 2018 (18.8%).

Figure 3-9 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Quebec

Description for Figure 3.9 
Data table for Figure 3.9
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Quebec

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M4 and M5, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M5 M3
in thousands
1994 7,192.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 7,219.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 7,246.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 7,274.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 7,295.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 7,323.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 7,357.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 7,396.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 7,441.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 7,485.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 7,535.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 7,581.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 7,632.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 7,692.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 7,761.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 7,843.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 7,929.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 8,005.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 8,061.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 8,110.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 8,150.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 8,175.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 8,226.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 8,297.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 8,390.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,428.3 8,443.2 8,441.2 8,444.8 8,464.2
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,463.9 8,494.5 8,490.5 8,497.7 8,534.2
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,496.9 8,545.3 8,539.1 8,550.1 8,604.2
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,527.3 8,595.0 8,586.6 8,601.5 8,674.7
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,555.0 8,643.8 8,633.0 8,651.8 8,745.9
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,580.2 8,691.6 8,678.5 8,701.2 8,817.9
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,602.9 8,738.5 8,723.0 8,749.7 8,890.7
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,623.2 8,784.5 8,766.6 8,797.2 8,964.2
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,641.3 8,829.5 8,809.2 8,843.7 9,038.4
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,657.0 8,873.6 8,850.9 8,889.3 9,113.3
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,670.6 8,916.7 8,891.6 8,934.0 9,188.8
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,682.0 8,958.9 8,931.3 8,977.7 9,265.0
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,691.5 9,000.3 8,970.3 9,020.5 9,341.9
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,699.0 9,040.8 9,008.4 9,062.6 9,419.6
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,704.8 9,080.7 9,045.8 9,103.9 9,498.2
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,709.0 9,120.1 9,082.7 9,144.7 9,577.8
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,711.9 9,159.1 9,119.1 9,185.1 9,658.5
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,713.7 9,197.8 9,155.2 9,225.2 9,740.6
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,714.5 9,236.5 9,191.2 9,265.1 9,824.1
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,714.4 9,275.2 9,227.2 9,305.1 9,909.2
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,713.8 9,314.0 9,263.3 9,345.1 9,996.0
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,712.6 9,353.1 9,299.6 9,385.4 10,084.5
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,711.0 9,392.5 9,336.1 9,425.9 10,175.0
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,709.2 9,432.2 9,372.9 9,466.7 10,267.4
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 8,707.1 9,472.4 9,410.2 9,507.9 10,361.8

Table 3.10
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Quebec
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 2.5 8.0 14.8 6.8 1.6 2.5 0.8 -0.1 -7.2 3.7 10.9
1997/1998 2.9 3.2 10.6 7.5 2.1 3.7 1.4 -0.2 -2.3 2.8 5.2
2017/2018 11.2 2.0 10.1 8.1 10.0 5.8 1.1 5.3 -0.8 2.7 3.5
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 3.2 0.1 9.1 9.0 4.3 5.2 1.1 0.1 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2032/2033 0.7 -2.4 8.4 10.8 4.2 5.3 1.1 0.0 -1.1 2.5 3.7
2042/2043 -0.2 -3.5 8.8 12.3 4.5 5.7 1.1 -0.1 -1.2 2.5 3.7
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 5.7 1.4 9.8 8.5 5.4 5.9 1.0 0.5 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2032/2033 4.4 -0.2 9.3 9.5 5.7 6.6 0.9 0.1 -1.2 2.5 3.7
2042/2043 4.3 -0.9 10.0 10.8 6.4 7.3 1.0 0.0 -1.2 2.5 3.7
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 5.7 1.4 9.8 8.4 5.4 5.9 1.0 0.5 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2032/2033 4.4 -0.2 9.3 9.5 5.7 6.6 0.9 0.1 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2042/2043 4.3 -0.9 10.0 10.8 6.4 7.3 1.0 0.0 -1.2 2.5 3.7
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 5.9 1.4 9.8 8.5 5.4 5.9 1.0 0.5 -1.0 2.6 3.6
2032/2033 4.6 -0.2 9.4 9.5 5.7 6.5 0.9 0.1 -1.0 2.5 3.5
2042/2043 4.3 -0.9 10.0 10.9 6.3 7.3 1.0 0.0 -1.1 2.5 3.6
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 5.7 1.4 9.8 8.5 5.4 5.9 1.0 0.5 -1.1 2.3 3.3
2032/2033 4.4 -0.2 9.3 9.6 5.7 6.6 0.9 0.1 -1.1 2.2 3.3
2042/2043 4.3 -0.9 9.9 10.9 6.4 7.3 1.0 0.0 -1.2 2.2 3.3
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 5.4 1.3 9.8 8.5 5.4 5.9 1.0 0.5 -1.4 2.2 3.6
2032/2033 4.2 -0.3 9.3 9.6 5.8 6.6 0.9 0.1 -1.3 2.2 3.5
2042/2043 4.0 -1.0 9.9 11.0 6.4 7.4 0.9 0.0 -1.4 2.1 3.5
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 8.2 2.6 10.6 7.9 6.7 6.5 0.9 1.1 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2032/2033 8.3 1.9 10.4 8.5 7.6 8.1 0.8 0.4 -1.2 2.5 3.7
2042/2043 9.2 1.5 11.3 9.8 8.9 9.7 0.8 0.1 -1.3 2.5 3.8
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 7.3 1.7 10.6 8.9 6.7 6.5 0.9 1.1 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2032/2033 6.8 0.4 10.6 10.2 7.6 8.1 0.9 0.4 -1.2 2.5 3.7
2042/2043 8.3 0.7 11.6 10.9 8.9 9.7 0.8 0.1 -1.3 2.5 3.8
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 4.2 1.1 9.1 8.0 4.3 5.2 1.1 0.1 -1.1 2.6 3.7
2032/2033 2.3 -0.8 8.2 9.1 4.2 5.3 1.1 0.0 -1.1 2.5 3.6
2042/2043 0.8 -2.4 8.6 11.0 4.5 5.7 1.1 -0.1 -1.2 2.4 3.6

Figure 3-10 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Quebec

Description for Figure 3.10

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Quebec populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 9, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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