Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Ontario

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  • Ontario’s population is projected to reach between 16,537,500 (scenario LG) and 20,354,500 (scenario HG) by 2043, up from 14,322,800 in 2018.
  • Ontario remains Canada’s most populous province in all scenarios. The province would account for between 38.4% (scenario M3) and 39.9% (scenario M5) of the Canadian population by 2043, compared with 38.6% in 2018.
  • Substantial losses in net interprovincial migration could cause the annual growth rate of Ontario to fall below the national average, thus slightly decreasing the province’s relative demographic weight (scenario M3).
  • In all scenarios, the main factor in Ontario’s population growth is international migratory increase. To a lesser extent, population growth would also be a result of positive natural increase which, although diminishing because of population aging, would remain positive throughout most projections scenarios.
  • From 16.9% in 2018, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Ontario is projected to reach between 21.2% (scenario SA) and 26.1% (scenario FA) by 2043. The median age is projected to increase in all scenarios from 40.6 years in 2018 to between 41.3 years (scenario SA) and 45.9 years (scenario FA) in 2043.

Figure 3-11 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Ontario

Description for Figure 3.11 
Data table for Figure 3.11
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Ontario

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M2 and M4, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M3 M5
in thousands
1994 10,819.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 10,950.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 11,082.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 11,227.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 11,365.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 11,504.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 11,683.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 11,897.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 12,094.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 12,245.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 12,391.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 12,528.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 12,661.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 12,764.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 12,883.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 12,998.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 13,135.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 13,261.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 13,390.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 13,510.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 13,617.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 13,707.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 13,875.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 14,071.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 14,322.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 14,464.3 14,501.1 14,488.1 14,509.7 14,555.5
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 14,604.6 14,677.9 14,651.6 14,695.3 14,779.3
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 14,741.9 14,856.2 14,816.3 14,882.4 15,004.8
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 14,874.9 15,033.7 14,980.2 15,069.0 15,233.1
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,003.4 15,210.6 15,143.0 15,255.0 15,464.6
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,127.4 15,386.6 15,304.8 15,440.3 15,699.2
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,246.8 15,561.6 15,465.4 15,624.7 15,937.0
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,361.6 15,735.3 15,624.4 15,808.0 16,177.4
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,471.6 15,907.5 15,781.7 15,989.9 16,420.2
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,576.7 16,077.8 15,936.9 16,170.1 16,665.1
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,676.7 16,245.9 16,089.7 16,348.2 16,911.5
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,771.7 16,411.6 16,239.8 16,524.0 17,159.1
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,861.4 16,574.5 16,387.1 16,697.2 17,407.5
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 15,945.8 16,734.5 16,531.1 16,867.6 17,656.4
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,024.8 16,891.4 16,671.9 17,035.1 17,905.4
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,098.6 17,044.9 16,809.1 17,199.5 18,154.3
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,167.1 17,195.1 16,942.7 17,360.7 18,402.9
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,230.5 17,341.7 17,072.6 17,518.6 18,650.9
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,288.7 17,484.8 17,198.8 17,673.2 18,898.1
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,342.0 17,624.2 17,321.1 17,824.4 19,144.3
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,390.4 17,759.9 17,439.5 17,972.2 19,389.3
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,434.0 17,892.0 17,554.0 18,116.4 19,633.1
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,473.0 18,020.2 17,664.5 18,257.1 19,875.3
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,507.5 18,144.6 17,771.0 18,394.2 20,115.8
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 16,537.5 18,265.2 17,873.5 18,527.6 20,354.5

Table 3.11
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Ontario
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 11.9 7.0 14.3 7.3 3.9 5.9 1.8 -0.2 1.0 11.5 10.5
1997/1998 12.5 4.7 11.9 7.1 7.0 9.5 2.3 -0.2 0.8 6.7 5.9
2017/2018 17.9 2.9 10.3 7.4 13.7 9.4 1.8 6.1 1.3 5.7 4.4
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 8.6 1.2 9.3 8.2 7.8 9.3 1.7 0.2 -0.4 4.8 5.2
2032/2033 5.0 -0.8 8.7 9.5 6.2 8.0 1.8 0.0 -0.4 4.7 5.0
2042/2043 1.8 -2.5 8.4 10.9 4.6 6.7 1.9 -0.2 -0.3 4.6 5.0
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 11.8 2.4 10.1 7.7 9.8 10.5 1.6 0.8 -0.4 4.8 5.2
2032/2033 9.4 1.4 9.7 8.3 8.4 9.8 1.6 0.2 -0.4 4.7 5.0
2042/2043 6.6 0.1 9.6 9.4 6.9 8.5 1.6 -0.1 -0.3 4.6 5.0
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 11.8 2.4 10.1 7.7 9.8 10.5 1.6 0.8 -0.3 4.8 5.1
2032/2033 9.4 1.4 9.7 8.3 8.4 9.8 1.6 0.2 -0.4 4.6 4.9
2042/2043 6.7 0.2 9.5 9.4 6.8 8.5 1.6 -0.1 -0.4 4.5 4.9
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 10.9 2.3 10.0 7.7 9.8 10.5 1.6 0.8 -1.3 4.3 5.6
2032/2033 8.5 1.3 9.7 8.4 8.5 9.9 1.6 0.2 -1.3 4.2 5.4
2042/2043 5.8 0.0 9.5 9.5 7.0 8.7 1.6 -0.1 -1.3 4.1 5.4
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 11.7 2.4 10.0 7.7 9.8 10.5 1.6 0.8 -0.4 4.4 4.8
2032/2033 9.3 1.4 9.7 8.3 8.4 9.8 1.6 0.2 -0.4 4.3 4.7
2042/2043 6.6 0.1 9.5 9.4 6.9 8.6 1.6 -0.1 -0.4 4.2 4.6
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 12.3 2.4 10.1 7.7 9.7 10.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 4.8 4.6
2032/2033 9.9 1.5 9.7 8.3 8.3 9.7 1.6 0.2 0.2 4.6 4.4
2042/2043 7.3 0.3 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.4 1.6 -0.1 0.2 4.5 4.3
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 15.2 3.7 10.8 7.2 11.9 11.6 1.5 1.8 -0.4 4.8 5.2
2032/2033 14.1 3.5 10.9 7.4 11.0 11.9 1.4 0.5 -0.4 4.6 5.0
2042/2043 11.9 2.5 10.9 8.4 9.7 11.0 1.4 0.1 -0.3 4.6 5.0
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 14.4 2.8 10.8 8.0 11.9 11.6 1.5 1.8 -0.4 4.8 5.2
2032/2033 12.8 2.2 11.0 8.8 11.0 11.9 1.4 0.5 -0.4 4.7 5.0
2042/2043 10.9 1.6 11.1 9.5 9.7 11.0 1.4 0.1 -0.4 4.7 5.0
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 9.5 2.0 9.3 7.3 7.8 9.3 1.7 0.2 -0.4 4.8 5.2
2032/2033 6.4 0.6 8.6 8.0 6.2 8.0 1.8 0.0 -0.4 4.6 5.0
2042/2043 2.9 -1.4 8.2 9.6 4.7 6.7 1.9 -0.2 -0.3 4.6 4.9

Figure 3-12 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Ontario

Description for Figure 3.12

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Ontario populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 9, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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