Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Ontario
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- Ontario’s population is projected to reach between 16,537,500 (scenario LG) and 20,354,500 (scenario HG) by 2043, up from 14,322,800 in 2018.
- Ontario remains Canada’s most populous province in all scenarios. The province would account for between 38.4% (scenario M3) and 39.9% (scenario M5) of the Canadian population by 2043, compared with 38.6% in 2018.
- Substantial losses in net interprovincial migration could cause the annual growth rate of Ontario to fall below the national average, thus slightly decreasing the province’s relative demographic weight (scenario M3).
- In all scenarios, the main factor in Ontario’s population growth is international migratory increase. To a lesser extent, population growth would also be a result of positive natural increase which, although diminishing because of population aging, would remain positive throughout most projections scenarios.
- From 16.9% in 2018, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Ontario is projected to reach between 21.2% (scenario SA) and 26.1% (scenario FA) by 2043. The median age is projected to increase in all scenarios from 40.6 years in 2018 to between 41.3 years (scenario SA) and 45.9 years (scenario FA) in 2043.
Description for Figure 3.11
| Year | Historic | Projected | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | ||||
| M1 | M3 | M5 | ||||
| in thousands | ||||||
| 1994 | 10,819.1 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1995 | 10,950.1 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1996 | 11,082.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1997 | 11,227.7 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1998 | 11,365.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1999 | 11,504.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2000 | 11,683.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2001 | 11,897.5 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2002 | 12,094.2 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2003 | 12,245.0 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2004 | 12,391.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2005 | 12,528.7 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2006 | 12,661.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2007 | 12,764.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2008 | 12,883.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2009 | 12,998.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2010 | 13,135.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2011 | 13,261.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2012 | 13,390.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2013 | 13,510.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2014 | 13,617.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2015 | 13,707.1 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2016 | 13,875.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2017 | 14,071.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2018 | 14,322.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2019 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 14,464.3 | 14,501.1 | 14,488.1 | 14,509.7 | 14,555.5 |
| 2020 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 14,604.6 | 14,677.9 | 14,651.6 | 14,695.3 | 14,779.3 |
| 2021 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 14,741.9 | 14,856.2 | 14,816.3 | 14,882.4 | 15,004.8 |
| 2022 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 14,874.9 | 15,033.7 | 14,980.2 | 15,069.0 | 15,233.1 |
| 2023 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,003.4 | 15,210.6 | 15,143.0 | 15,255.0 | 15,464.6 |
| 2024 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,127.4 | 15,386.6 | 15,304.8 | 15,440.3 | 15,699.2 |
| 2025 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,246.8 | 15,561.6 | 15,465.4 | 15,624.7 | 15,937.0 |
| 2026 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,361.6 | 15,735.3 | 15,624.4 | 15,808.0 | 16,177.4 |
| 2027 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,471.6 | 15,907.5 | 15,781.7 | 15,989.9 | 16,420.2 |
| 2028 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,576.7 | 16,077.8 | 15,936.9 | 16,170.1 | 16,665.1 |
| 2029 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,676.7 | 16,245.9 | 16,089.7 | 16,348.2 | 16,911.5 |
| 2030 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,771.7 | 16,411.6 | 16,239.8 | 16,524.0 | 17,159.1 |
| 2031 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,861.4 | 16,574.5 | 16,387.1 | 16,697.2 | 17,407.5 |
| 2032 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 15,945.8 | 16,734.5 | 16,531.1 | 16,867.6 | 17,656.4 |
| 2033 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,024.8 | 16,891.4 | 16,671.9 | 17,035.1 | 17,905.4 |
| 2034 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,098.6 | 17,044.9 | 16,809.1 | 17,199.5 | 18,154.3 |
| 2035 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,167.1 | 17,195.1 | 16,942.7 | 17,360.7 | 18,402.9 |
| 2036 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,230.5 | 17,341.7 | 17,072.6 | 17,518.6 | 18,650.9 |
| 2037 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,288.7 | 17,484.8 | 17,198.8 | 17,673.2 | 18,898.1 |
| 2038 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,342.0 | 17,624.2 | 17,321.1 | 17,824.4 | 19,144.3 |
| 2039 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,390.4 | 17,759.9 | 17,439.5 | 17,972.2 | 19,389.3 |
| 2040 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,434.0 | 17,892.0 | 17,554.0 | 18,116.4 | 19,633.1 |
| 2041 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,473.0 | 18,020.2 | 17,664.5 | 18,257.1 | 19,875.3 |
| 2042 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,507.5 | 18,144.6 | 17,771.0 | 18,394.2 | 20,115.8 |
| 2043 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 16,537.5 | 18,265.2 | 17,873.5 | 18,527.6 | 20,354.5 |
|
.. not available for a specific reference period Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
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| Scenario / Period | Total growth | Natural increase | Net international migration | Net interprovincial migration | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Births | Deaths | Total | Immigration | Net emigration | Net non-permanent residents | Total | In-migration | Out-migration | ||
| crude rate per thousand | |||||||||||
| Historic | |||||||||||
| 1977/1978 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 14.3 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| 1997/1998 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 |
| 2017/2018 | 17.9 | 2.9 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 4.4 |
| Projected | |||||||||||
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 2032/2033 | 5.0 | -0.8 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 1.9 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M1) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 2032/2033 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M2) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| 2032/2033 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| 2042/2043 | 6.7 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M3) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 10.9 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 4.3 | 5.6 |
| 2032/2033 | 8.5 | 1.3 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| 2042/2043 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 4.1 | 5.4 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M4) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 11.7 | 2.4 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| 2032/2033 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| 2042/2043 | 6.6 | 0.1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 1.6 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M5) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| 2032/2033 | 9.9 | 1.5 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 2042/2043 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| High-growth scenario (HG) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 15.2 | 3.7 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 2032/2033 | 14.1 | 3.5 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 11.9 | 2.5 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| Slow-aging scenario (SA) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 2032/2033 | 12.8 | 2.2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 10.9 | 1.6 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Fast-aging scenario (FA) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 2032/2033 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 2.9 | -1.4 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 1.9 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
|
Notes: Crude rates are calculated over the total population and expressed per thousand persons in the total population at midyear. Crude rates are significantly affected by the age structure of the population. For example, most countries will eventually experience an increase in the crude death rate in the coming decades due to the aging of the population, in spite of continued declines in mortality at all ages. The crude rate of natural increase and the crude rate of net migration sum to the crude growth rate. The crude rate of natural increase equals the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. The crude rate of net migration equals the crude rate of immigration minus the crude rate of net emigration plus the crude rate of net non-permanent resident migration. Net emigration is the balance of emigrants, minus returning emigrants, plus net temporary emigrants. The rate of net interprovincial migration equals the crude rate of interprovincial in-migration minus the crude rate of interprovincial out-migration. Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
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Description for Figure 3.12
This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Ontario populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.
The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.
The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 9, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.
The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.
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