Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Nunavut

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  • In all projection scenarios, Nunavut experiences an annual growth rate that is positive over the next 25 years. From 38,400 in 2018, the population of Nunavut would increase to between 47,100 (scenario LG) and 54,000 (scenario M4) in 2043.
  • Fertility is the key driver of population growth in Nunavut, as its population would continue to increase despite losses in migration exchanges with the rest of Canada and almost no gains from international migration. All scenarios indicate strongly positive natural increase for the territory, a result of the fact that Nunavut would continue to hold the highest fertility rates in the country while also having a young age structure.
  • The population of Nunavut is projected to remain the youngest in Canada in all scenarios. The median age of the population of Nunavut could in fact decrease over the next 25 years, according to scenarios HG and SA. The projected median age ranges between 25.6 years (scenario SA) and 28.7 years (scenario M5) in 2043, in comparison to 26.1 years in 2018.
  • The proportion of persons aged 65 and over in Nunavut would more than double over the next 25 years according to all projection scenarios, from 3.9% in 2018 to between 8.4% (scenarios M4, M5 and HG) and 9.4% (scenario FA) in 2043. It would nevertheless remain by far the youngest population in the country.

Figure 3-25 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Nunavut

Description for Figure 3.25 
Data table for Figure 3.25
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Nunavut

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M4 and M5, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M3 M4
in thousands
1994 24.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 25.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 25.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 25.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 26.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 26.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 27.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 28.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 28.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 29.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 29.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 30.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 30.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 31.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 31.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 32.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 33.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 34.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 34.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 35.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 36.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 36.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 37.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 37.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 38.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 38.8 38.9 38.8 39.0 38.9
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 39.2 39.3 39.2 39.6 39.4
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 39.7 39.8 39.6 40.2 39.9
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40.0 40.2 40.1 40.8 40.4
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40.4 40.7 40.5 41.4 41.0
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40.8 41.2 40.9 42.0 41.5
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.2 41.6 41.3 42.6 42.0
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.5 42.1 41.6 43.2 42.6
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.9 42.5 42.0 43.8 43.2
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.2 43.0 42.5 44.4 43.7
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.6 43.4 42.9 44.9 44.3
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.9 43.9 43.3 45.6 44.9
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.3 44.4 43.7 46.2 45.5
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.6 44.9 44.1 46.8 46.2
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.9 45.4 44.6 47.4 46.8
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.3 45.9 45.0 48.1 47.4
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.6 46.4 45.4 48.7 48.1
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.0 46.8 45.9 49.4 48.7
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.3 47.3 46.3 50.0 49.4
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.6 47.8 46.7 50.7 50.1
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 48.3 47.1 51.3 50.7
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.2 48.8 47.6 52.0 51.4
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.6 49.3 48.0 52.6 52.1
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.8 49.8 48.4 53.3 52.9
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 47.1 50.3 48.9 54.0 53.6

Table 3.18
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1997/1998 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Nunavut
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-
migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-
migration
Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1997/1998 19.3 23.8 28.4 4.6 -0.3 0.6 1.0 0.1 -4.2 38.7 42.9
2017/2018 22.5 19.5 24.5 5.0 -0.1 0.8 0.8 -0.2 3.1 33.4 30.3
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 9.5 17.0 21.9 4.9 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 -7.6 26.6 34.3
2032/2033 7.9 16.5 22.1 5.6 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 -8.6 25.0 33.6
2042/2043 6.2 15.4 21.3 5.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 -9.2 24.3 33.6
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 11.3 18.7 23.3 4.6 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -7.7 26.6 34.3
2032/2033 10.9 19.0 24.0 5.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.5 24.9 33.4
2042/2043 10.0 18.5 23.6 5.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.8 24.2 33.0
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 10.8 18.5 23.2 4.7 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.1 27.4 35.5
2032/2033 10.7 18.8 24.0 5.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.5 25.4 33.9
2042/2043 9.9 18.1 23.6 5.5 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.6 24.4 33.0
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 10.1 18.3 23.0 4.7 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.5 24.5 33.1
2032/2033 9.8 18.3 23.7 5.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 -8.9 22.6 31.5
2042/2043 8.9 17.6 23.4 5.8 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 -9.0 21.6 30.6
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 14.7 18.3 23.0 4.7 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -3.9 22.3 26.2
2032/2033 13.5 18.3 23.3 5.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -5.1 20.9 26.0
2042/2043 12.5 17.4 22.7 5.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 -5.2 20.4 25.6
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 13.1 18.3 23.0 4.6 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -5.6 20.4 26.0
2032/2033 12.0 18.5 23.5 5.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -6.8 19.3 26.1
2042/2043 11.0 17.5 22.7 5.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 -6.9 18.9 25.7
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 13.1 20.4 24.8 4.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 -7.8 26.5 34.3
2032/2033 13.7 21.5 26.0 4.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 -8.3 24.8 33.1
2042/2043 13.8 21.4 26.0 4.6 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 -8.3 24.1 32.5
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 12.6 19.9 24.8 4.9 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 -7.7 26.5 34.3
2032/2033 13.1 20.6 26.1 5.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 -8.1 25.0 33.1
2042/2043 13.5 20.8 26.2 5.4 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 -8.0 24.5 32.5
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 9.9 17.4 21.8 4.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 -7.7 26.6 34.3
2032/2033 8.6 17.3 22.0 4.7 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 -8.9 24.7 33.6
2042/2043 6.5 16.1 21.1 5.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 -9.6 23.9 33.5

Figure 3-26 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Nunavut

Description for Figure 3.26

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Nunavut populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 16, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid has a wide base and a pointed apex, giving it a real pyramidal shape. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios also have a pyramidal shape similar to 2018.


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