Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Northwest Territories

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  • The population of the Northwest Territories is projected to number between 43,900 (scenario M3) and 53,200 (scenario HG) by 2043. The territory counted 44,500 inhabitants in 2018.
  • Positive population growth in the territory is propelled entirely by international migratory increases and positive natural increase over the next 25 years.
  • The Northwest Territories is projected to sustain losses in interprovincial migration in all scenarios, remaining consistent with historical trends. In a situation of significant losses, the population of the Northwest Territories could decline, as suggested by scenario M3.
  • According to all projection scenarios, the Northwest Territories would remain the second-youngest population in Canada, after Nunavut. Nevertheless, over the next 25 years, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over would increase from 7.9% in 2018 to between 13.8% (scenario SA) and 17.0% (scenario FA) in 2043. From 34.8 years in 2018, the median age is projected to range between 35.3 years (scenario SA) and 39.0 years (scenario M5) in 2043, levels that would remain well below the projected Canadian average.

Figure 3-23 Population, historique (1994 à 2018) et projetée (2019 à 2043) selon les scénarios sélectionnés, Territoires du Nord-Ouest

Description for Figure 3.23 
Data table for Figure 3.23
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Northwest Territories

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M2 and M5, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M3 M5
in thousands
1994 40.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 41.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 41.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 41.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 40.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 40.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 40.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 40.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 41.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 42.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 43.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 43.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 43.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 43.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 43.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 43.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 43.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 43.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 43.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 43.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 43.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 44.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 44.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 44.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 44.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 44.8 44.6 45.0 44.9
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.0 45.1 44.7 45.4 45.2
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.1 45.3 44.8 45.8 45.5
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.3 45.6 44.9 46.2 45.9
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.5 45.9 44.9 46.6 46.3
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.6 46.1 45.0 47.0 46.6
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.7 46.4 45.1 47.4 47.0
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.8 46.6 45.1 47.8 47.4
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 46.8 45.2 48.1 47.8
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 47.0 45.2 48.5 48.2
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 47.2 45.2 48.8 48.6
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 46.0 47.4 45.2 49.2 48.9
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 47.6 45.2 49.5 49.3
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 47.8 45.1 49.8 49.7
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.9 47.9 45.1 50.1 50.1
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.8 48.1 45.1 50.4 50.4
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.8 48.2 45.0 50.7 50.8
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.7 48.3 44.9 51.0 51.1
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.6 48.4 44.8 51.3 51.5
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.5 48.5 44.7 51.5 51.8
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.3 48.5 44.6 51.8 52.1
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.2 48.6 44.4 52.0 52.4
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 45.0 48.6 44.3 52.2 52.7
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 48.6 44.1 52.4 52.9
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.7 48.6 43.9 52.6 53.2

Table 3.17
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1997/1998 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Northwest Territories
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-
migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-
migration
Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1997/1998 -17.4 13.1 16.4 3.3 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 -31.6 57.6 89.2
2017/2018 -8.8 8.5 14.1 5.5 3.0 5.7 1.0 -1.7 -20.3 36.7 57.0
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 3.3 6.3 12.2 5.9 7.5 8.3 0.8 0.0 -10.5 51.6 62.0
2032/2033 -0.8 4.2 11.6 7.4 6.4 7.1 0.7 0.1 -11.4 50.6 62.0
2042/2043 -4.4 3.3 12.0 8.7 4.3 5.0 0.8 0.1 -12.0 50.9 62.9
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 5.7 7.5 13.1 5.5 8.7 9.4 0.7 0.1 -10.6 51.6 62.1
2032/2033 3.2 6.4 12.9 6.5 8.2 8.7 0.7 0.1 -11.3 50.6 62.0
2042/2043 -0.1 5.8 13.4 7.6 5.9 6.4 0.7 0.1 -11.7 51.1 62.8
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 2.5 7.5 13.1 5.6 8.8 9.5 0.7 0.1 -13.8 51.9 65.6
2032/2033 0.2 6.1 12.8 6.8 8.5 9.1 0.7 0.1 -14.4 50.8 65.3
2042/2043 -3.2 5.2 13.3 8.2 6.4 6.9 0.7 0.2 -14.8 51.3 66.1
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 1.7 7.4 13.0 5.6 8.9 9.6 0.7 0.1 -14.6 48.3 62.9
2032/2033 -0.9 5.9 12.9 6.9 8.7 9.2 0.7 0.1 -15.5 47.3 62.8
2042/2043 -4.4 4.9 13.3 8.5 6.5 7.1 0.7 0.2 -15.8 47.7 63.5
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 6.6 7.5 13.1 5.6 8.7 9.4 0.7 0.1 -9.6 40.6 50.3
2032/2033 4.3 6.2 12.9 6.6 8.1 8.6 0.7 0.1 -10.0 39.6 49.5
2042/2043 1.3 5.4 13.2 7.8 5.7 6.3 0.7 0.1 -9.8 39.7 49.5
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 8.8 7.3 12.9 5.5 8.6 9.3 0.7 0.1 -7.2 39.7 46.9
2032/2033 6.2 6.0 12.5 6.5 7.8 8.4 0.7 0.1 -7.7 38.4 46.0
2042/2043 3.5 5.2 12.8 7.5 5.5 6.0 0.7 0.1 -7.2 38.3 45.5
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 8.0 8.7 14.0 5.2 9.9 10.4 0.7 0.2 -10.7 51.4 62.1
2032/2033 7.4 8.4 14.2 5.8 10.3 10.8 0.6 0.2 -11.3 50.5 61.8
2042/2043 4.8 8.1 15.0 6.8 8.1 8.5 0.6 0.2 -11.4 51.3 62.7
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 7.4 8.1 14.0 5.9 9.9 10.4 0.7 0.2 -10.6 51.5 62.1
2032/2033 6.4 7.3 14.4 7.0 10.3 10.7 0.7 0.2 -11.2 51.0 62.3
2042/2043 4.0 7.4 15.2 7.8 8.0 8.4 0.6 0.2 -11.4 52.2 63.6
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 3.9 6.9 12.2 5.3 7.5 8.3 0.8 0.0 -10.5 51.5 62.0
2032/2033 0.4 5.4 11.5 6.2 6.4 7.1 0.7 0.1 -11.5 50.1 61.5
2042/2043 -3.6 4.1 11.8 7.7 4.4 5.0 0.8 0.1 -12.0 49.9 61.9

Figure 3-24 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Northwest Territories

Description for Figure 3.24

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Northwest Territories populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 11, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It has a base that more or less rectangular between ages 0 and 55with a pointed apex between ages 55 and 100. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak than 2018. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades, a consequence of the aging population structure projected.


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