Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Nova Scotia

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  • Nova Scotia’s population could number between 916,900 (scenario LG) and 1,078,900 (scenario HG) by 2043 according to all projection scenarios, from 959,900 in 2018. Nova Scotia’s demographic weight within the country decreases slightly in every scenario, from 2.6% in 2018 to between 2.1% (scenarios M1, M2, M3, M4, HG and SA) and 2.2% (scenarios LG, M5 and FA) by 2043.
  • In all scenarios for Nova Scotia, crude death rates would increase considerably during the projection period, driven upward by its population age structure becoming older. This phenomenon, combined with generally falling or stagnant crude birth rates throughout the same period, contributes to the negative natural increase projected in all scenarios.
  • The combination of negative natural increase and negative net interprovincial migration would cause Nova Scotia to have a lower population in 2043 than in 2018, according to the LG and FA scenarios. Higher net international migration and more favourable rates of natural increase could lead to positive growth as indicated in the remaining scenarios.
  • In all scenarios, the median age of Nova Scotia’s population would increase during the 25-year projection period, from 45.1 years in 2018 to between 45.5 years (scenario SA) and 50.4 years (scenario FA). Similarly, the projected proportion of persons aged 65 and over would also increase according to all scenarios, to between 26.1% (scenario SA) and 31.3% (scenario FA), from 20.4% in 2018.

Figure 3-5 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Nova Scotia

Description for Figure 3.5 
Data table for Figure 3.5
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Nova Scotia

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M3 and M4, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M3 M5
in thousands
1994 926.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 928.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 931.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 932.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 931.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 933.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 933.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 932.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 935.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 937.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 939.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 937.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 937.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 935.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 935.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 938.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 942.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 944.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 943.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 940.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 938.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 936.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 942.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 950.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 959.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 961.8 963.5 962.2 964.6 966.0
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 963.5 967.1 964.4 969.1 971.7
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 965.0 970.6 966.6 973.6 977.5
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 966.2 974.1 968.8 978.1 983.3
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 967.2 977.5 970.9 982.5 989.2
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 967.8 980.8 972.9 986.7 995.1
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 968.2 983.9 974.7 990.8 1,001.1
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 968.2 986.8 976.3 994.7 1,007.0
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 967.9 989.5 977.7 998.4 1,012.8
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 967.2 992.0 978.9 1,001.8 1,018.6
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 966.1 994.2 979.8 1,005.0 1,024.2
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 964.7 996.1 980.5 1,008.0 1,029.7
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 962.9 997.8 980.8 1,010.6 1,034.9
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 960.8 999.1 980.8 1,013.0 1,040.0
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 958.3 1,000.1 980.5 1,015.0 1,044.9
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 955.4 1,000.8 979.9 1,016.8 1,049.5
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 952.2 1,001.2 979.0 1,018.3 1,053.9
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 948.7 1,001.3 977.7 1,019.4 1,058.0
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 944.9 1,001.1 976.2 1,020.2 1,061.8
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 940.9 1,000.6 974.3 1,020.8 1,065.4
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 936.5 999.8 972.2 1,021.0 1,068.7
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 931.9 998.7 969.7 1,021.0 1,071.7
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 927.1 997.4 967.0 1,020.7 1,074.4
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 922.1 995.7 964.0 1,020.1 1,076.8
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 916.9 993.8 960.7 1,019.2 1,078.9

Table 3.8
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Nova Scotia
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 7.2 6.6 14.7 8.1 1.0 1.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 23.9 24.4
1997/1998 1.3 1.9 10.6 8.6 2.2 2.8 1.0 0.4 -2.8 17.5 20.2
2017/2018 9.7 -0.9 8.9 9.8 7.8 5.4 0.7 3.1 2.8 17.5 14.7
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 1.0 -2.8 8.0 10.8 4.3 5.0 0.9 0.2 -0.5 15.0 15.4
2032/2033 -2.6 -5.6 7.3 12.9 3.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 -0.4 14.5 14.9
2042/2043 -5.7 -7.5 7.2 14.7 2.2 3.3 0.9 -0.1 -0.4 14.2 14.6
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 3.5 -1.5 8.6 10.1 5.5 5.7 0.8 0.6 -0.4 15.0 15.4
2032/2033 1.0 -3.3 8.1 11.4 4.7 5.4 0.8 0.1 -0.4 14.4 14.8
2042/2043 -1.9 -5.0 8.1 13.1 3.4 4.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.4 14.2 14.6
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 3.2 -1.5 8.6 10.1 5.5 5.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 14.9 15.6
2032/2033 0.8 -3.3 8.1 11.4 4.8 5.4 0.8 0.1 -0.6 14.4 15.0
2042/2043 -2.2 -5.0 8.1 13.1 3.4 4.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 14.1 14.7
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 2.2 -1.6 8.6 10.2 5.5 5.7 0.8 0.6 -1.7 15.1 16.8
2032/2033 -0.3 -3.6 8.0 11.6 4.9 5.5 0.8 0.1 -1.6 14.5 16.1
2042/2043 -3.4 -5.4 8.0 13.4 3.6 4.4 0.7 -0.1 -1.5 14.3 15.8
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 3.2 -1.6 8.6 10.1 5.5 5.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 14.6 15.3
2032/2033 0.8 -3.3 8.1 11.4 4.8 5.4 0.8 0.1 -0.6 14.2 14.8
2042/2043 -2.2 -5.0 8.1 13.1 3.4 4.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.6 14.0 14.6
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 4.5 -1.5 8.6 10.1 5.4 5.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 15.2 14.7
2032/2033 2.0 -3.1 8.2 11.3 4.7 5.3 0.8 0.1 0.5 14.7 14.3
2042/2043 -0.9 -4.6 8.3 12.9 3.3 4.1 0.8 -0.1 0.4 14.5 14.0
High-growth scenario (H)
2022/2023 6.0 -0.3 9.2 9.6 6.8 6.3 0.7 1.3 -0.4 14.9 15.4
2032/2033 4.7 -1.3 9.0 10.3 6.3 6.6 0.7 0.4 -0.4 14.4 14.8
2042/2043 2.0 -2.7 9.2 11.9 5.0 5.6 0.6 0.0 -0.4 14.2 14.6
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 4.9 -1.4 9.3 10.7 6.8 6.3 0.7 1.3 -0.5 14.9 15.4
2032/2033 2.9 -3.0 9.2 12.2 6.4 6.7 0.7 0.4 -0.5 14.5 15.0
2042/2043 0.8 -3.7 9.4 13.1 5.0 5.6 0.7 0.0 -0.5 14.4 14.9
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 2.1 -1.7 8.0 9.7 4.3 5.0 0.9 0.2 -0.4 15.0 15.4
2032/2033 -0.7 -3.8 7.2 10.9 3.4 4.3 0.9 0.0 -0.4 14.3 14.7
2042/2043 -4.3 -6.2 7.0 13.2 2.2 3.2 0.9 -0.1 -0.3 14.0 14.2

Figure 3-6 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Nova Scotia

Description for Figure 3.6

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Nova Scotia populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 10, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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