Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Newfoundland and Labrador

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  • According to the various projection scenarios, by 2043, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador would be between 429,400 (scenario LG) and 501,500 (scenario M4). In 2018, the province’s population was 525,400. In all scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador’s demographic weight within the total Canadian population would decrease to between 0.9% (scenarios HG and SA) and 1.1% (scenario M4) in 2043, from 1.4% in 2018.
  • In all scenarios but one (M4), Newfoundland and Labrador would experience both a negative natural increase and net losses in interprovincial migration over the next 25 years. Natural increase would become negative primarily because of the projected increase in the number of deaths, as the large baby-boom cohort reaches older ages where mortality rates are higher.
  • Even in a situation of interprovincial migratory increase (scenario M4), a low crude international migration rate relative to the rest of the provinces paired with consistently negative natural increase suggests the population of Newfoundland and Labrador would decrease.
  • In all scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador exhibits the highest median age and proportion of the population aged 65 and over across Canada in 2043. The median age would increase from 46.5 years in 2018 to between 50.2 years (scenario SA) and 54.3 years (scenario FA) in 2043. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over would reach between 30.9% (scenario SA) and 35.8% (scenario FA) in 2043, compared to 20.5% in 2018.

Figure 3-1 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador

Description for Figure 3.1 
Data table for Figure 3.1
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M2 and M3, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M2 M4
in thousands
1994 574.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 567.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 559.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 550.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 539.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 533.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 528.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 522.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 519.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 518.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 517.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 514.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 510.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 509.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 511.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 516.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 522.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 525.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 526.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 527.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 528.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 528.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 529.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 528.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 525.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 523.2 523.9 523.2 525.7 524.7
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 520.9 522.3 520.9 526.0 523.9
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 518.5 520.6 518.7 526.2 523.1
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 515.9 518.9 516.4 526.3 522.3
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 513.2 517.2 514.0 526.3 521.4
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 510.3 515.3 511.6 526.2 520.5
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 507.3 513.4 509.1 526.0 519.6
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 504.1 511.3 506.5 525.7 518.7
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 500.8 509.2 503.8 525.3 517.7
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 497.3 506.9 500.9 524.7 516.6
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 493.6 504.5 498.0 524.0 515.4
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 489.7 502.0 494.9 523.2 514.2
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 485.7 499.3 491.7 522.3 512.8
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 481.6 496.5 488.4 521.2 511.3
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 477.3 493.6 484.9 520.0 509.8
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 472.9 490.6 481.3 518.7 508.1
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 468.3 487.4 477.7 517.2 506.4
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 463.7 484.2 473.9 515.6 504.5
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 459.0 480.8 470.0 513.9 502.5
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 454.1 477.3 466.0 512.1 500.4
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 449.3 473.7 461.9 510.1 498.2
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 444.3 470.1 457.7 508.1 495.9
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 439.4 466.3 453.5 506.0 493.5
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 434.4 462.5 449.2 503.8 490.9
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 429.4 458.6 444.8 501.5 488.3

Table 3.6
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 6.6 13.7 19.3 5.6 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 -7.6 14.5 22.1
1997/1998 -16.0 1.6 9.5 7.9 -0.4 0.7 0.6 -0.5 -17.2 13.4 30.6
2017/2018 -6.1 -1.6 8.2 9.8 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.7 -6.9 10.7 17.6
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 -5.3 -4.7 6.7 11.3 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 -2.2 14.1 16.2
2032/2033 -8.9 -8.6 6.0 14.6 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 -1.7 13.7 15.5
2042/2043 -11.5 -11.3 6.0 17.3 1.0 1.8 0.7 -0.1 -1.3 13.7 15.0
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 -3.4 -3.4 7.2 10.6 2.2 2.5 0.6 0.3 -2.1 14.0 16.2
2032/2033 -5.9 -6.3 6.7 13.0 2.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 -1.6 13.8 15.4
2042/2043 -8.4 -8.9 6.7 15.7 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 -1.2 13.8 14.9
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 -4.6 -3.5 7.1 10.6 2.2 2.5 0.6 0.3 -3.2 15.0 18.3
2032/2033 -7.1 -6.7 6.5 13.2 2.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 -2.6 14.7 17.3
2042/2043 -9.7 -9.5 6.6 16.0 1.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 -2.1 14.8 16.8
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 -3.1 -3.4 7.2 10.6 2.2 2.5 0.6 0.3 -1.9 16.8 18.7
2032/2033 -5.8 -6.4 6.6 13.0 2.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 -1.4 16.5 17.9
2042/2043 -8.4 -9.0 6.7 15.7 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 -1.2 16.6 17.8
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 0.0 -3.2 7.3 10.5 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.3 1.1 13.6 12.5
2032/2033 -2.3 -5.6 7.0 12.5 1.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 13.4 12.1
2042/2043 -4.5 -7.6 7.1 14.7 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 1.6 13.5 11.9
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 -1.3 -3.3 7.2 10.5 2.1 2.5 0.6 0.3 -0.2 11.9 12.0
2032/2033 -3.7 -5.7 7.0 12.7 2.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 11.6 11.5
2042/2043 -6.0 -7.9 7.1 15.0 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.4 11.6 11.2
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 -1.6 -2.4 7.7 10.0 2.9 2.7 0.6 0.7 -2.1 14.0 16.1
2032/2033 -3.0 -4.5 7.4 11.9 3.0 3.2 0.5 0.3 -1.5 13.7 15.3
2042/2043 -5.3 -6.9 7.6 14.5 2.7 3.1 0.5 0.1 -1.1 13.8 15.0
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 -2.8 -3.5 7.7 11.2 2.9 2.7 0.6 0.7 -2.1 14.0 16.2
2032/2033 -5.2 -6.5 7.5 14.1 3.0 3.3 0.5 0.3 -1.6 13.8 15.5
2042/2043 -6.8 -8.1 7.9 16.0 2.8 3.2 0.5 0.1 -1.4 14.0 15.4
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 -4.1 -3.5 6.7 10.1 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 -2.1 14.0 16.2
2032/2033 -6.7 -6.4 5.9 12.3 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 -1.6 13.6 15.2
2042/2043 -9.9 -9.8 5.8 15.6 1.0 1.7 0.7 -0.1 -1.1 13.5 14.5

Figure 3-2 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Newfoundland and Labrador

Description for Figure 3.2

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Newfoundland and Labrador populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 10, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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