Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Alberta

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  • Alberta’s population would increase over the next 25 years according to all projection scenarios to reach between 6,027,800 (scenario LG) and 7,303,700 (scenario HG) by 2043, compared to 4,307,100 in 2018.
  • Alberta exhibits the highest average annual growth rates in Canada in all projection scenarios except one (M5). As is projected elsewhere in the country, growth rates decrease for the province over the course of the projection due mainly to a decline in the levels of natural increase, a situation related in part to population aging.
  • The demographic weight of Alberta within Canada is projected to increase in all scenarios, from 11.6% of the Canadian population in 2018 to between 12.7% (scenario M5) and 14.7% (scenario M3) in 2043.
  • Alberta’s population would surpass that of British Columbia by 2043 according to most scenarios (except M5). In contrast, in 2018, British Columbia’s population was about 685,000 persons larger than that of Alberta.
  • Alberta is projected to experience substantial population gains through interprovincial migration in almost all scenarios. This, along with substantial net international migration and positive natural increase in all scenarios, contributes to above-average population growth relative to the rest of the provinces and territories.
  • From 12.8% in 2018, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in Alberta would increase to between 17.0% (scenario SA) and 20.8% (scenario FA). The median age would reach between 38.8 years (scenario SA) and 42.3 years (scenario FA) in 2043, compared to 36.9 years in 2018.

Figure 3-17 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Alberta

Description for Figure 3.17 
Data table for Figure 3.17
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Alberta

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M2 and M4, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M5 M3
in thousands
1994 2,700.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 2,734.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 2,775.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 2,829.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 2,899.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 2,952.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 3,004.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 3,058.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 3,128.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 3,183.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 3,238.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 3,321.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 3,421.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 3,514.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 3,595.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 3,679.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 3,732.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 3,789.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 3,874.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 3,981.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 4,083.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 4,144.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 4,196.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 4,244.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 4,307.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,381.6 4,389.0 4,366.6 4,397.0 4,398.3
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,456.8 4,472.8 4,427.7 4,488.7 4,491.0
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,531.7 4,558.4 4,490.3 4,582.4 4,586.6
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,605.9 4,644.9 4,553.4 4,676.9 4,684.7
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,679.3 4,732.1 4,616.8 4,772.3 4,785.4
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,752.0 4,820.0 4,680.5 4,868.3 4,888.3
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,823.8 4,908.5 4,744.3 4,965.0 4,993.6
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,894.8 4,997.6 4,808.4 5,062.4 5,101.2
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 4,965.2 5,087.3 4,872.6 5,160.6 5,211.1
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,034.9 5,177.7 4,937.0 5,259.6 5,323.4
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,104.0 5,268.7 5,001.6 5,359.4 5,438.1
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,172.6 5,360.5 5,066.4 5,460.1 5,555.1
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,240.8 5,453.0 5,131.4 5,561.7 5,674.7
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,308.4 5,546.2 5,196.5 5,664.1 5,796.6
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,375.6 5,640.1 5,261.8 5,767.5 5,921.0
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,442.3 5,734.7 5,327.3 5,871.7 6,047.8
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,508.6 5,830.0 5,392.9 5,976.7 6,177.1
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,574.6 5,926.1 5,458.7 6,082.7 6,308.9
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,640.2 6,022.9 5,524.7 6,189.5 6,443.3
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,705.6 6,120.5 5,590.9 6,297.3 6,580.2
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,770.6 6,218.8 5,657.3 6,406.0 6,719.7
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,835.4 6,317.8 5,723.9 6,515.6 6,861.8
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,899.9 6,417.6 5,790.7 6,626.1 7,006.4
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 5,964.0 6,518.1 5,857.5 6,737.5 7,153.7
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 6,027.8 6,619.2 5,924.5 6,849.7 7,303.7

Table 3.14
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Alberta
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 32.0 11.7 17.8 6.1 3.6 6.0 2.2 -0.1 16.7 42.7 26.0
1997/1998 24.6 7.3 13.2 5.9 2.1 4.1 2.4 0.3 15.2 30.5 15.3
2017/2018 14.9 7.2 13.3 6.1 7.3 9.1 1.5 -0.3 0.3 14.7 14.4
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 15.9 4.6 11.1 6.5 7.1 9.2 2.0 -0.1 4.3 19.6 15.3
2032/2033 12.7 2.5 10.1 7.6 6.1 8.0 2.1 0.1 4.0 18.9 14.9
2042/2043 10.7 1.8 10.4 8.6 5.0 6.9 2.0 0.1 3.9 18.4 14.5
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 18.8 5.8 11.9 6.1 8.7 10.4 1.8 0.1 4.3 19.6 15.4
2032/2033 16.9 4.7 11.3 6.6 8.3 9.8 1.8 0.2 4.0 18.9 14.9
2042/2043 15.5 4.3 11.7 7.4 7.3 8.8 1.7 0.2 3.9 18.6 14.6
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 19.5 5.8 11.9 6.0 8.7 10.3 1.8 0.1 5.0 20.2 15.2
2032/2033 17.5 4.8 11.3 6.5 8.1 9.7 1.8 0.2 4.6 19.4 14.8
2042/2043 16.1 4.5 11.7 7.2 7.2 8.7 1.7 0.2 4.4 18.8 14.4
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 20.4 5.9 11.9 6.0 8.6 10.3 1.8 0.1 5.8 21.8 16.0
2032/2033 18.2 5.0 11.4 6.3 8.0 9.6 1.8 0.2 5.2 20.9 15.7
2042/2043 16.7 4.8 11.8 7.0 7.0 8.5 1.8 0.2 4.9 20.3 15.5
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 17.3 5.9 11.9 6.0 8.8 10.4 1.8 0.1 2.7 17.1 14.4
2032/2033 15.7 4.8 11.3 6.5 8.4 10.0 1.8 0.2 2.4 16.5 14.1
2042/2043 14.4 4.5 11.7 7.2 7.6 9.1 1.7 0.2 2.2 16.2 14.0
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 13.9 5.7 11.8 6.1 8.9 10.6 1.8 0.1 -0.7 14.8 15.5
2032/2033 12.6 4.4 11.1 6.7 8.9 10.5 1.8 0.2 -0.8 14.4 15.2
2042/2043 11.4 4.0 11.6 7.6 8.3 9.8 1.7 0.3 -0.9 14.3 15.2
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 21.5 7.0 12.7 5.7 10.3 11.5 1.7 0.5 4.2 19.6 15.4
2032/2033 21.5 6.7 12.6 5.9 10.9 12.1 1.6 0.4 3.9 18.9 15.0
2042/2043 21.0 6.7 13.3 6.6 10.3 11.5 1.5 0.4 4.0 18.8 14.8
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 20.8 6.3 12.8 6.4 10.3 11.5 1.7 0.5 4.2 19.6 15.4
2032/2033 20.4 5.6 12.7 7.1 10.8 12.0 1.6 0.4 4.0 19.1 15.1
2042/2043 20.2 5.9 13.4 7.6 10.3 11.4 1.5 0.4 4.0 19.0 14.9
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 16.6 5.2 11.1 5.8 7.1 9.2 2.0 -0.1 4.3 19.6 15.3
2032/2033 13.8 3.7 10.0 6.3 6.1 8.0 2.0 0.1 4.0 18.8 14.8
2042/2043 11.6 2.7 10.2 7.5 5.1 6.9 2.0 0.1 3.8 18.2 14.4

Figure 3-18 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Alberta

Description for Figure 3.18

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Alberta populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 10, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It has a narrow base, a wider zone at ages 25 to 40 and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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