Table 2.1
Assumptions of fertility, mortality, immigration,
emigration, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migration
Archived Content
Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.
| Components | Number of assumptions | Assumptions | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Medium | High | ||
| Fertility 1 | 3 | 1.5 children per woman | 1.7 children per woman | 1.9 children per woman |
| Life expectancy in 2036 - Males | 3 | 82.3 years | 84.0 years | 85.4 years |
| Life expectancy in 2036 - Females | 3 | 86.0 years | 87.3 years | 88.4 years |
| Immigration rate 2,3 | 3 | 6.0 per 1,000 | 7.5 per 1,000 | 9.0 per 1,000 |
| Emigration rate | 1 | 1.53 per 1,000 | 1.53 per 1,000 | 1.53 per 1,000 |
| Returning emigrant rate | 1 | 44.5% | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| Net temporary emigration | 1 | Average (20,173) of the period 2005/2006 to 2007/2008 | Average (20,173) of the period 2005/2006 to 2007/2008 | Average (20,173) of the period 2005/2006 to 2007/2008 |
| Non-permanents residents | 1 | 2007/2008 (51,090) net reaching 0 in 10 years | 2007/2008 (51,090) net reaching 0 in 10 years | 2007/2008 (51,090) net reaching 0 in 10 years |
| Interprovincial migration 4 | 4 | --- | --- | --- |
Total fertility rate for low and high assumptions
will be reached in five years.
During the first three years of projections,
the assumptions are based on the number of immigrants provided in the Immigration
plan from Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
The denominator used to calculate the immigration
rate corresponds to the host population, that is the mean Canadian population
during a given period, and not the population at risk to immigrate to Canada.
For interprovincial migration, there are no
high or low assumptions for provinces and territories. The four assumptions
are based on different periods, that is, 1981 to 2008, 2006 to 2008, 1988 to 1996 and 2001 to 2006.
- Date modified: