Section 4: Analysis of the results of the short-term projections
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The assumptions in the short-term scenario are based on the most recent data available when the projections were produced. For fertility, the parameters are based on births in 2007. For mortality, the parameters are exactly the same as in the long-term medium-growth scenarios, and they therefore project the same gains in life expectancy. Lastly, for the other components 1 , preliminary data for the 2008/2009 period of the Demographic Estimates Program were used (Table 4.1). Since it is unlikely that the situation observed over a single year will continue over a long period, the projection horizon for this scenario is limited to five years.
According to the short-term scenario, Canada's population could reach 35.9 million in 2014, up 2.1 million from 2009. This represents an average annual growth rate of 12.4 per thousand (Table 4.2). About two-thirds of this growth would come from migratory increase, while the remaining one-third would result from natural increase.
All the provinces and territories would see their population grow during the next five years, except for the Northwest Territories. For the Western provinces, Yukon and Nunavut, the growth of the population would be above the Canadian average. Alberta would lead with an average annual growth rate of 24.4 per thousand. Saskatchewan, Nunavut and British Columbia would follow, with growth rates of 16.9, 16.5 and 16.3 per thousand, respectively.
In absolute numbers, over the five-year period, Ontario would have the largest population increase (702,600), followed by Alberta (471,900), British Columbia (374,800) and Quebec (356,900).
The total migratory increase (the sum of net international migration and net interprovincial migration) would be the primary factor contributing to population growth, except in Nunavut and Northwest Territories where the migratory increase is negative and the fertility levels are higher than elsewhere in the country.
The Northwest Territories would be the only region of Canada to see its population decline during the five-year period, with natural increase and immigration not offsetting the losses from interprovincial migration. The Northwest Territories would therefore face a modest decline of 723 (-16.6 per thousand) during the period.
Growth, while positive, would be modest in the Atlantic provinces. New Brunswick would experience the lowest average annual growth with a change of only 2.7 per thousand, followed by Nova Scotia (3.6 per thousand) and Newfoundland and Labrador (5.8 per thousand). Within this group, Newfoundland and Labrador would be the only province to experience negative natural increase, mainly due to low fertility. Its growth would be heavily dependent on positive net interprovincial migration. This latter component was not inconsiderable in 2008/2009, and is reflected in the short-term scenario. As for Prince Edward Island, it would experience an average annual growth of 11.6 per thousand, much of it from international migration. Note that this province saw its share of immigrants increase considerably during the period 2008/2009.
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