Section 2: Selection of scenarios
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The purpose of the different projection scenarios is to reflect the uncertainty associated with the future. These scenarios are constructed by combining a number of assumptions regarding the future evolution of each of the components of population growth.
The four medium-growth scenarios (M1, M2, M3 and M4) were developed on the basis of assumptions reflecting the medium trends observed in the past. However, they differ from each other in the interprovincial migration assumption adopted. Each scenario puts forward a separate assumption to reflect the volatility of this component.
The low-growth (L) and high-growth (H) scenarios bring together assumptions that are consistent with either lower or higher growth than in the medium-growth scenarios. For example, assumptions such as those that entail high fertility, high life expectancy and strong immigration are the foundation for the high-growth scenario. Essentially, these two scenarios are intended to provide a plausible and sufficiently broad range of projected numbers to take account of the uncertainties inherent in any projection exercise. Note that in these two scenarios, the interprovincial migration assumption is the same, namely the assumption that is based on the period 1981/1982 to 2007/2008 and is used in medium-growth scenario M1.
As noted above, only one assumption was formulated for emigration, returning emigrants, persons temporarily abroad and non-permanent residents. The various projection scenarios therefore do not offer any variations for these components.
Combinations of the various assumptions yield a total of 108 different scenarios. The results of six of these scenarios are appended to this publication. However, the analysis of the results, presented in the section that follows, is basically limited to the low, medium and high-growth scenarios.
Finally, for the first time, the results of a new short-term scenario are now available. The analysis is presented separately in Section 4, and detailed results are also appended to this publication. Except for mortality, the assumptions in this scenario reflect the components observed during a single year, the most recent one for which data are available from Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program.
The projection horizon for this scenario is limited to five years so that behaviours observed for a single year are not reproduced over a long period. This short-term scenario enables users to picture how the Canadian population might evolve if recent demographic patterns were to persist.
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