Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2021
Appendices

Appendix A: Glossary

Age

1. Age as of July 1.

Aging (of a population)

1. An increase in the number of old persons as a percentage of the total population.

Average age

1. The average age of a population is the average age of all its members.

Census coverage

1. Census net undercoverage: Difference between undercoverage and overcoverage.
2. Overcoverage: Number of persons who should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once.
3. Undercoverage: Number of persons who were intended to be enumerated in a census but were not.

Cohort

1. Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given year. In the cast of births, persons born within a specified year are referred to as a generation.

Components of demographic growth

1. Any of the classes of events generating population movement variations. Births, deaths and migrations are the components responsible for the variation since they alter either the total population or the age and sex distribution of the population.

Demographic dependency ratio

1. The ratio of the combined population aged from 0 to 14 years old and the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged from 15 to 64 years old.

Emigrant

1. Canadian citizen or immigrant who has left Canada to establish a residence in another country, involving a change in usual place of residence. Emigration may be either temporary or permanent. Where the term is used alone, it references to a person's permanent emigration which involves severing residential ties with Canada and acquiring permanent residency in another country.

Error of closure

1. Difference between the postcensal estimate at the census date and the results of the census adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves).

Generation

1. Unless otherwise specified, refers here to a group of persons born within a given period. The 2001 generation represents people born during the year 2001.

Immigrant

1. Within the framework of this publication, the terms immigrant, landed immigrant and permanent resident are equivalent. An immigrant refers to a person who is or has ever been a landed immigrant (permanent resident) and who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Immigrants are either Canadian citizens by naturalization (the citizenship process) or permanent residents under Canadian legislation. Some immigrants have resided in Canada for a number of years, while others have arrived recently. Most immigrants are born outside Canada, but a small number are born in Canada. Also, children born in other countries to parents who are Canadian citizens that reside temporarily in another country are not included in the category as they become Canadian citizens at birth.

International migration

1. International migration represents movement of population between Canada and a foreign country which involves a change in the usual place of residence. A distinction is made with regard to immigrants, emigrants, returning emigrants, net temporary emigration and net non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

1. Interprovincial migration represents all movement from one province or territory to another involving a change in the usual place of residence. A person who takes up residence in another province or territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province or territory of origin and an in-migrant with reference to the province or territory of destination.

Median age

1. The median age is an age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".

Natural increase

1. Variation in the population size over a given period as a result of the difference between the numbers of births and deaths.

Net international migration

1. Net international migration is obtained according to the following formula: Immigrants + returning emigrants + net non-permanent residents - (emigrants + net temporary emigrants).

Net interprovincial migration

1. Net interprovincial migration represents the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province or territory.

Net non-permanent residents

1. Net non-permanent residents represent the variation in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates.

Non-permanent residents

1. A non-permanent resident is a person who is lawfully in Canada on a temporary basis and who holds a work, study or other (excluding visitor visas) permit issued for that person along with members of their family living with them. This group also includes individuals who seek refugee status upon or after their arrival in Canada and remain in the country pending the outcome of processes relative to their claim. Note that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada uses the term temporary resident rather than non-permanent resident.

Net temporary emigration

1. Net temporary emigration represents the variation in the number of temporary emigrants between two dates. Temporary emigration includes Canadian citizens and immigrants living temporarily abroad who have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada.

Population

1. Estimated population and population according to the census are both defined as being the number of Canadians whose usual place of residence is within that area, regardless of where they happened to be on Census Day. Also included are any Canadians staying in a dwelling in that area on Census Day and having no usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada, as well as those considered non-permanent residents.

Population estimate

1. Postcensal: Population estimate produced by using data from the most recent available census adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves) and estimate of the components of demographic growth since that last census. This estimate can be preliminary, updated or final.
2. Intercensal: Population estimate derived by using postcensal estimates and data adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves) of censuses preceding and following the year in question.

Population growth or total growth

1. Variation of population size between two dates. It can also be obtained by summing the natural increase, total net migration and if applicable, subtract residual deviation. It can be positive or negative.

Precocity error

1. Difference between preliminary and final estimate in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for either population estimates or components of population growth.

Rate

1. Refers to the ratio of the number of events estimated in a year (t, t+1) to the average populations at the beginning and the end of the period. In this regard, births, deaths, immigration rates, etc are calculated. Generally, the rates are expressed in per 1,000.
2. Census net undercoverage of population rate: Difference between the census undercoverage rate and the census overcoverage rate.
3. Demographic growth rate or population growth rate: Ratio of population growth between the year t and t+1, to the average population of both these years. The rate is generally expressed in per 1,000.
4. Overcoverage of population rate: The ratio of the number of persons who should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once to the total number of persons that should have been enumerated in the census. Generally, the rate is expressed in percentage.
5. Undercoverage of population rate: The ratio of the estimated number of persons not enumerated in the census (who were intended to have been enumerated) to the total number of persons that should have been enumerated in the census. Generally, the rate is expressed in percentage.

Residual deviation

1. Difference between demographic population growth calculated using intercensal estimates of population between two dates and that obtained by the sum of the components for the same period. This deviation results from the distribution of the error of closure (based on the number of days) over the months related to the five-year period.

Returning emigrant

1. Canadian citizen or immigrant having previously emigrated from Canada and subsequently returned to the country.

Sex ratio

1. The ratio of the number of men to the number of women. This is not to be confused with the sex ratio at birth, which is the ratio of the number of live-born boys to the number of live-born girls. This ratio is usually expressed as an index, with the number of females taken to be a base of 100.

Sprague coefficients

1. Series of factors which, when multiplied to a population distributed by multiples age groups, give a distribution of the same population by single years of age.

Total net migration

1. Sum of net international and net interprovincial migration.

Vital statistics

1. Includes all the demographic events (births, deaths, marriages and divorces) for which there are a legal requirement to inform the Provincial or Territorial Registrar's Office.

Year

1. Unless otherwise specified, the term “year” refers to the period beginning July 1 of a given year and ending June 30 of the following year.

Appendix B: Sources and remarks

Base population

May 10, 2016 Census of Population adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves.

2016 Census: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 2016, Catalogue no. 98-501-X.

Census net undercoverage: See The Daily, September 27, 2018.

Incompletely enumerated Indian reserves: See The Daily, September 27, 2018.

Births and deaths

Statistics Canada, the Centre for Population Health Data.

Statistics Canada, the Centre for Demography, Catalogue no. 91-215-X, annual.

Immigration

Estimates are based on the immigrant files provided by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) received on August 17, 2021.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method as IRCC data were received as usual and were of normal quality.

Emigration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada child benefit files (CCB) program. The last year of data used is 2018/2019
• tax data calculated using T1FF file provided by Statistics Canada Centre for Income and Socioeconomic Well-being Statistics. The last year of data used was 2018/2019
• data provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics. The last year of data used was 2018/2019
• data on the number of adult and children emigrants from T1FF file used for the provincial distribution of adults. The last year of data used was 2018/2019.

For estimates after 2018/2019, we:

• calculated the 2018/2019 emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to Canada’s population on July 1^st at the beginning of the period to be estimated
• distributed the number of emigrants for Canada by the province and territory according to the provincial distribution of 2018/2019
• distributed these data by month according to the provincial or territorial emigration seasonality of 2018/2019.

Note: An adjustment was made to the usual estimation method in order to take into account the travel restrictions, in Canada and in other countries, imposed within the COVID-19 context. The adjustment was applied from March 2020 to June 2021. It was calculated using the number of immigrant visas in the United States issued from U.S. consulates in Canada. The ratio between the number of immigrant visas from the United States and preliminary estimates of emigration for 2017, 2018 and 2019 was applied to the number of issued visas from March 2020 to June 2021. This adjustment resulted in lower estimates of emigration for March 2020 and a marked decrease from April to December 2020. Adjusted data show a relative recovery beginning in January 2021, especially in the second quarter.

Returning emigration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada child benefit files (CCB) program. The last year of data used was 2018/2019
• 2016 Census – 1 year mobility.

For estimates after 2018/2019, we:

• calculated the 2018/2019 returning emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to Canada’s population on July 1^st at the beginning of the period to be estimated
• distributed the number of returning emigrants for Canada by the province and territory according to the provincial distribution of 2018/2019
• distributed these data by month according to the provincial or territorial returning emigration seasonality of 2018/2019.

Note: Adjustments were made to the usual estimation method in order to take into account the travel restrictions, in Canada and in other countries, imposed within the COVID-19 context. The adjustments were applied from March 2020 to June 2021. It was calculated using two alternative sources: the number of entries in the country of Canadian citizens living abroad as given by the Frontier Counts data for Canadian airports with Primary Inspection Kiosks (PIK) and registered individuals in the Register of Canadians Abroad (ROCA). The adjustment was done in two parts. First, the monthly ratios between the number of PIK entries and preliminary estimates of returning emigration for 2018 and 2019 were applied to the number of entries of March 2020 to June 2021. Second, monthly ratios of the number of persons registered in ROCA returning to Canada and the number of entries from PIK from 2018 and 2019 were calculated. The monthly variations between the average ratios of 2018 and 2019 and those of 2020 were applied to the results of the first step. These adjustments resulted in a marked increase of the number of returning emigrants in March and April 2020 and a decrease in the following months.

Net temporary emigration

The intercensal estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• data from the Reverse Record Check (RRC) of the 2016 Census
• 2016 Census – question on the place of residence 5 years ago
• estimates of returning emigrants for 2011 to 2016 intercensal period.

For the postcensal estimates, we:

• calculated the 2015/2016 net temporary emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to Canada’s population on July 1^st at the beginning of the period to be estimated
• distributed the result for the year into monthly estimates using an applied seasonality that is an average between zero seasonality and the seasonality of emigration
• distributed by province and territory the monthly estimates according to the provincial distribution of the intercensal data.

Note: An adjustment was made to the usual estimation method in order to take into account the travel restrictions, in Canada and in other countries, imposed within the COVID-19 context. The adjustment was applied from March 2020 to June 2021. Temporary departures and returns were adjusted independently. Temporary departures were adjusted in the same way as emigration but using non-immigrant visas from the United States. Temporary returns were adjusted in a similar way as returning emigration but by using individuals who were abroad for 180 to 364 days in ROCA. This adjustment resulted in a strong decrease in the estimates of net temporary emigration for March and April 2020 and a diminution after. We observe some level of recovery beginning in autumn 2020.

Net non-permanent residents

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using the Global Case Management System (GCMS) files from IRCC. These files, received on August 17, 2021, document the number of permit holders and asylum claimants.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method as IRCC data were received as usual and were of normal quality.

Interprovincial migration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

1. adjusted migration data for children from Canada child benefit (CCB) program from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA)
2. factors (_jG) corresponding to the ratio of the migration rate of all children to the migration rate of who are registered to the CCB program children calculated using 2019/2020 tax file data
3. factors (_jkF) used to calculate adult migration and corresponding to the ratio of the adult to child migration rates, calculated on a three-year basis using tax file data for 2017/2018, 2018/2019 and 2019/2020.

Notes: Due to a change in methodology, we remind you that the in- and out- interprovincial migrants cannot be summed in order to obtain a different period (for example, the sum of the quarterly estimates is not equal to the annual estimates). This method has been applied starting with July 2011.

No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method.