Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2023
Appendix C: Sources and remarks

Base population

May 11, 2021 Census of Population adjusted to July 1 and corrected for census net undercoverage (including incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements, and population reviews).

2021 Census: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 2021, Catalogue no. 98-304-X.

Census net undercoverage: See The Daily, September 27, 2023.

Incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements: See The Daily, September 27, 2023.

Births and deaths

Statistics Canada, Centre for Population Health Data. For Quebec, preliminary and updated births and deaths were provided by the Institut de la statistique du Québec.

Births adjustments

Births provided by the Centre for Population Health Data were incomplete for Nova Scotia for August to December 2021 and for Manitoba for all of 2021, 2022 and 2023. For these two places, birth counts were replaced by estimates based on the fertility rates from 2020. The distribution of births by gender for Manitoba for 2021, 2022 and 2023 were based on the gender breakdown of births in Manitoba from 2017/2018 to 2019/2020.

Immigration

Estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using the Global Case Management System (GCMS) files from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) received on August 15, 2023.

For methodological reasons, the estimates of immigrants released by the Demographic Estimates Program may differ from those released by IRCC. In the event of a discrepancy between the two sources, the official numbers of immigrants will continue to be those released by IRCC.

Non-permanent residents

Estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using the Global Case Management System (GCMS) files from the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) received on August 15, 2023. Further methodological adjustments derived from a linkage between censuses and IRCC data are then applied.

Since March 17, 2022, persons with the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel (CUAET) who are on Canadian soil are included.

Emigration and returning emigrants

For the subprovincial areas, the components (emigration and returning emigrants) are extracted from tax files by broad age groups and gender. They are calculated using the T1 Family File (T1FF) provided by the Centre for Income and Socioeconomic Well-being Statistics of Statistics Canada. The data is then broken down by single year of age and gender based on aggregated distributions of urban and rural areas. To ensure their consistency, the estimates are subsequently controlled to the provincial and territorial components.

Net temporary emigrants

Before July 2016, short-term emigrants and short-term returning emigrants were included in the “net temporary emigration” component. After this date, they are included in the emigrant and returning emigrant components, using a slightly different methodology. Due to this change, the net temporary emigration component is no longer calculated from July 2016 onwards.

Net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration

For the subprovincial areas, the components (in- and out-migrants for interprovincial and intraprovincial migration) are extracted from tax files by broad age groups and gender. They are calculated using the T1FF provided by the Centre for Income and Socioeconomic Well-being Statistics of Statistics Canada as well as data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada child benefit files (CCB) program. For years up to 2020/2021, the data is broken down by single year of age and gender based on the mobility information from Census. Starting in 2021/2022, the distribution by single year of age and gender is based solely on the T1FF. To ensure their consistency, the components for interprovincial migration are subsequently controlled to the provincial and territorial totals.

For Quebec, intraprovincial migration data were provided by the Institut de la statistique du Québec.


Date modified: