Section 3: Census divisions
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Census divisions (CDs) with the highest growth rates in the past year
Between July 1, 2012 and July 1, 2013 (2012/2013), approximately 57% of the CDs recorded an increase in their population. More specifically, 167 out of 293 CDs experienced positive demographic growth, and fifteen of the CDs remained stable.
Seven of the ten CDs with the highest growth rates in 2012/2013 were in the Prairies, with six of the CDs located in Alberta. As in the previous two periods, the fastest growing CD was Division No. 16 (Wood Buffalo) in Alberta with a growth rate of 65.6 per thousand, compared to the national average of 11.6 per thousand. The other five fast-growing CDs in Alberta included: Division No. 6 (Calgary), ranking third (41.4 per thousand), Division No. 19 (Grande Prairie), ranking fourth (40.6 per thousand), Division No. 11 (Edmonton), ranking seventh (35.8 per thousand), Division No. 8 (Red Deer), ranking eighth (33.4 per thousand), and Division No. 15 (Canmore), ranking ninth (32.2 per thousand). The only other Western CD that made it to the top ten for highest growth for a second year in a row was Saskatchewan’s Division No. 11 (Saskatoon), ranking sixth, with a growth rate of 36.2 per thousand.
Two Quebec CDs had some of the highest growth rates including: Mirabel, ranking second (42.7 per thousand) and La Jacques-Cartier, ranking fifth (38.4 per thousand). Finally, the tenth ranked CD, Keewatin, Nunavut, had a growth rate of 30.4 per thousand.
For the rest of this analysis, a rate higher than -1 per thousand and lower than 1 per thousand is considered to be neutral or low. Rates are based on the average population during the period examined. Preliminary postcensal estimates are subject to revision. Future updates could affect trend analysis.
Census divisions with the highest rates of decline in the past year
During the period 2012/2013, half of the CDs with the lowest growth rate were found in Atlantic Canada, with Victoria, Nova Scotia holding the number one spot for greatest rate of decline at -29.3 per thousand. Nova Scotia was home to three other CDs that experienced high rates of decline including: Digby, ranking fourth (-24.5 per thousand), Inverness, ranking fifth (-22.4 per thousand), and Guysborough, ranking eighth (-20.7 per thousand).
PEI’s Kings CD made it to the list for a second year in a row, this time achieving a growth rate of -25.5 per thousand, moving it up from 6th to 3rd place. Rainy River, located in Western Ontario, saw a decline of -19.1 per thousand of its population, ranking it tenth.
In Western Canada, the CD with the highest decline was Saskatchewan’s Division No. 10 (Wynyard), ranking second place, with a growth rate of -26.0 per thousand. Ranking sixth was Alberta’s Division No.4 (-21.1 per thousand) followed by British Columbia’s Kootenay Boundary (-20.9 per thousand) and Skeena-Queen Charlotte (-20.6 per thousand), ranking seventh and ninth, respectively.
Overall, eight of the ten CDs experiencing the highest population decreases tended to have net losses in either and/or both interprovincial and intraprovincial migration. For the most part, CDs in Western Canada (Saskatchewan’s Division No.10, Alberta’s Division No.4, and British Columbia’s Skeena-Queen Charlotte) experienced much of their decrease through intraprovincial migration, Nova Scotia’s Inverness saw most of its decreases through interprovincial migration, while Nova Soctia’s Victoria and Digby, PEI’s Kings, and Ontario’s Rainy River saw decreases through a combination of both interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration. Finally, British Columbia’s Kootenay Boundary and Nova Scotia’s Guysborough can attribute a large proportion of their negative growth to a natural population decrease, resulting from a greater number of deaths than births.
The youngest census divisions
On July 1st, 2013, 88 of Canada’s 293 CDs had median ages that were below the national average (40.2 years). In all but four of those 88 CDs, the proportion of the population under 15 years was larger than the proportion aged 65 and over. Six of the ten youngest CDs were located in Nunavut and Manitoba, with three CDs found in each province/territory, while the remaining 4 CDs belong to Saskatchewan, Northwest Territories, Alberta and Quebec.
For the purposes of this article, various indicators will be used to measure the aging of a population. The distribution of the population under 15 years and 65 years and over and the median age will be the indicators considered. The median age is an age “x,” such that exactly one-half of the population is older than “x” and the other half is younger than “x.”
In the table showing the 10 youngest CDs, the CDs are ranked in decreasing order with the highest proportions of people under 15 years appearing first. In the table showing the 10 oldest CDs, the CDs are ranked in decreasing order with the highest proportions of people aged 65 years and over appearing first. Although median age is not used to rank the CDs, this indicator will be discussed in the text.
All of the youngest CDs in Canada on July 1, 2013, were also part of the youngest CDs on July 1 of the previous year with minor changes in ranking and median age. Keewatin, Nunavut maintained first rank, with a median age of 23.3 years. The next three ranks were home to Manitoba’s Division No.23 (Pukatawagan 198), Division No. 22 (Thompson) and Division No.19 with median ages of 24.0, 24.7 and 25.0 years respectively.
The oldest census divisions
On July 1, 2013, 205 of Canada’s 293 CDs had median ages that were greater or equal to the Canadian average (40.2 years). Seven of the oldest CDs were located in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia with three belonging to Quebec, two to Ontario and two to British Columbia. The remaining three CDS were located in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Manitoba.
Haliburton, Ontario was the oldest CD in Canada on July 1, 2013, a trend continuing from the previous year, this time with a slightly higher median age of 54.7 years. The next four oldest CDs included British Columbia’s Okanagan-Similkameen (52.5 years), Quebec’s Les Basques (53.7 years), Nova Scotia’s Guysborough (53.4 years) and Ontario’s Prince Edward (52.4 years).
It can be noted that the median age reached the symbolic threshold of 50 years in 30 Canadian CDs, an additional eight CDs than what was noted last year. Half (15) of these CDs were located in Quebec.
Population aging can also be reflected by the distribution of the population among age groups. For example, the proportion of people aged 65 years and over exceeded the proportion of people under 15 years in 175 of the 293 CDs. The majority of these CDS were located in Eastern and Central Canada.
Atlantic Canada continued to have the largest proportion of CDs where the 65 years and over population outnumbered the under 15 population (40/47, or 85%). In Quebec, about three quarters of the CDs (71/98) had a population with a greater proportion of seniors compared to just under two thirds of the CDs (31/49) in Ontario. Meanwhile, in the Prairies, one quarter of the CDs (15/60) had more seniors in comparison to young persons. In fact, all of Alberta’s 19 CDs consisted of a higher proportion of young people suggesting that only Manitoba and Saskatchewan had CDs with higher proportions of seniors. A similar trend was noted in the territories where all CDs held higher proportions of young persons. Finally, the population of persons 65 years and older was greater than the number of persons under 15 years of age in 62% of the CDs (18/29) in British Columbia.
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