Section 1: Census metropolitan areas
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On July 1, 2013, 24,517,700 people, or slightly more than two-thirds (69.7%) of the Canadian population, were living in a census metropolitan area (CMA). Canada’s three largest CMAs alone—Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver—were home to more than one in three Canadians (35.2%).
Between July 1, 2012 and July 1, 2013 (2012-2013 period), the population growth rate was far higher in CMAs (15.3 per thousand) than in non-CMAs (2.9 per thousand). For Canada, the population growth rate was 11.6 per thousand during this period. For a second consecutive year, the four fastest growing CMAs were in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Among Canada’s CMAs, Calgary recorded the strongest population growth (42.6 per thousand) during the 2012-2013 period. This was the highest population growth rate recorded by a CMA since 1996-1997. Between July 1, 2012 and July 1, 2013, Saint John was the only CMA to have lost population (-5.0 per thousand). Overall, the growth of CMAs was slightly lower during the 2012-2013 period (15.3 per thousand) than during the 2011-2012 period (16.1 per thousand).
For the rest of this analysis, a rate higher than -1 per thousand and lower than 1 per thousand is considered to be neutral or low. Rates are based on the average population during the period examined. Preliminary postcensal estimates are subject to revision. Future updates could affect trend analysis.
CMA growth unequal from east to west
In the Atlantic provinces, the highest population growth during the 2012-2013 period was recorded in the Moncton CMA (14.9 per thousand). The population of the St. John’s (N.L.) and Halifax CMAs also increased, with growth rates of 12.0 per thousand and 4.4 per thousand respectively. On the other hand, the only CMA that saw its population decline was located in the Atlantic provinces (Saint John, New Brunswick, with a decrease of 600).
In Quebec, the CMAs of Sherbrooke (12.2 per thousand) and the Quebec portion of Ottawa-Gatineau (11.9 per thousand) posted population growth rates that were slightly above the national average, while the rates for the CMAs of Montréal (11.3 per thousand) and Québec (8.6 per thousand) were slightly lower. The CMAs of Trois-Rivières (4.0 per thousand) and Saguenay (1.6 per thousand) had the most moderate increases in the province.
In Ontario, the population of five of the 15 CMAs grew at a rate exceeding the national average. The Oshawa CMA (16.4 per thousand) registered the strongest population growth in the province. The CMAs of Toronto (15.1 per thousand), Guelph (15.0 per thousand), the Ontario portion of Ottawa-Gatineau (13.0 per thousand) and Barrie (12.2 per thousand) also saw their populations grow at a rate above the national average.
The five CMAs in the Prairies posted population growth rates exceeding that of Canada. During the same period, the CMAs of Calgary (42.6 per thousand), Saskatoon (38.7 per thousand) and Edmonton (37.8 per thousand) posted population growth rates more than triple the Canadian average.
In British Columbia, the population of three of the province’s four CMAs grew at a slower rate than the Canadian average. The Vancouver CMA posted the province’s strongest population increase, with a rate of 14.3 per thousand.
Record increases in Alberta CMAs and sustained population growth in Saskatchewan CMAs
The Calgary and Edmonton CMAs both saw the largest increase in their population since 1996-1997. During the 2012-2013 period, Calgary was the top-ranking CMA for population growth and Edmonton ranked third. With an increase of 57,000, the population of the Calgary CMA on July 1, 2013 was 1,364,800. The population of the Edmonton CMA totaled 1,289,600 on the same date, up 47,800 from the previous year.
After reaching record levels during the 2011-2012 period, the population growth rates of the Saskatoon and Regina CMAs remained high between 2012 and 2013. The two Saskatchewan CMAs posted the second and fourth highest population growth rates respectively among Canada’s CMAs. Up by 11,100 since July 1, 2012, the population of the Saskatoon CMA reached 292,600 on July 1, 2013. In the Regina CMA, an increase of 7,100 during the same period brought the CMA’s total population to 232,100.
In every Alberta and Saskatchewan CMA, a sizable share of the population increase was attributable to international migration. Moreover, the CMAs of these two provinces were among the rare places where the net interprovincial migration rate exceeded 1.0 per thousand; the Victoria CMA was the only other CMA in Canada to exceed this threshold. In particular, the Calgary and Edmonton CMAs benefited from substantial gains in net interprovincial migration, with increases of 17,800 and 15,600 respectively.
Population declined in the non-CMAs of several provinces as well as in Saint John
Overall, Canada saw its population increase, as did almost all the CMAs. However, some regions of the country saw their population shrink.
Between 2012 and 2013, the population of the Saint John CMA declined by 600 (-5.0 per thousand) to 127,900 as of July 1, 2013. Gains due to natural increase (+200) and net international migration (+400) were not enough to offset net population losses due to interprovincial migration (-1,200).
In non-CMAs, population decreases were recorded in Newfoundland and Labrador (-2,600, or -8.2 per thousand), Nova Scotia (- 6,100, or -11.3 per thousand), New Brunswick (-2,400, or -5.0 per thousand), Ontario (-9,100, or -3.4 per thousand) and the Northwest Territories (-100, or -1.9 per thousand). These population decreases were mainly due to negative net interprovincial migration except in Newfoundland and Labrador, where intraprovincial migration was the main factor in the decrease.
Population growth rate in Canada’s three largest CMAs was close to the Canadian average
Of Canada’s three largest CMAs, Toronto posted the strongest population growth. In the past year, the population of the Toronto CMA grew by 89,600, reaching 5,959,500 on July 1, 2013. In the Montréal CMA during the same period, the population grew by 44,900, bringing the total to 3,981,800. Finally, the population of the Vancouver CMA totaled 2,443,300 on July 1, 2013, an increase of 34,600 compared with the previous year. The population growth rate for Canada’s three largest CMAs is very close to the rate for Canada as a whole. The CMAs of Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver grew by rates of 15.1 per thousand, 11.3 per thousand and 14.3 per thousand respectively.
Canada’s three largest CMAs had a combined population of 12.4 million on July 1, 2013. Slightly more than half of the Canadian population living in a CMA lived in one of these three.
In each of the three largest Canadian CMAs, international migration was the main engine of population growth. Net international migration generated gains of 80,500 in the Toronto CMA, 45,200 in Montréal and 31,700 in Vancouver. On the other hand, the Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver CMAs were notable for their negative net intraprovincial migration. These are the only three CMAs in Canada to have registered population losses owing to migration exchanges with the rest of their province. The net losses attributable to this factor were -20,400 for Toronto, -7,000 for Montréal and -3,100 for Vancouver.
CMAs have a younger population than the rest of Canada
On July 1, 2013, the median age of the population residing in a CMA was 39.0 years. By comparison, the median age of the non-CMA population was slightly higher at 43.4 years.
With regard to the proportion of persons aged 65 years and over, the non-CMA population was also older. The 65-and-over age group accounted for 17.9% of the non-CMA population, compared with 14.2% in CMAs. On July 1, 2013, the proportion under 15 years of age (16.0%) living in CMAs exceeded the proportion aged 65 years and over (14.2%). By contrast, since July 1, 2011, persons aged 65 years and over have outnumbered young persons under age 15 in Canada’s non-CMA population.
The age pyramid for CMAs is wider than that for non-CMAs between the ages of 20 and 49. This is due to young adults migrating from non-CMAs, as well as to a greater influx of immigrants. By the same token, there are proportionally more persons over 50 years of age in non-CMAs, for both men and women.
Figure 1.1: Population pyramid for CMA and non-CMA population for July 1, 2013
For the purposes of this article, various indicators will be used to measure the aging of a population. The distribution of the population aged 0 to 14 years and 65 years and over and the median age will be the indicators considered. The median age is an age “x,” such that exactly one-half of the population is older than “x” and the other half is younger than “x.”
The CMAs with the youngest populations are in Western Canada
On July 1, 2013, Canada’s four CMAs with the lowest median age were in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Saskatoon had the lowest figure, at 34.5 years. For purposes of comparison, this is 5.7 years less than the median age for Canada as a whole (40.2 years). The Abbotsford-Mission CMA in British Columbia also stood out for the youth of its population, which had the largest proportion of persons under age 15, at 18.4%. The Calgary CMA was also one of the youngest CMAs in Canada. In addition to having the third lowest median age (36.0 years), it was also the CMA with the lowest proportion of persons aged 65 years and over (9.9%) as well as a large proportion of young persons aged 0 to 14 years (17.7%).
The CMAs with the oldest populations are in Quebec and Ontario
With respect to median age, the oldest population was in the Trois-Rivières CMA (45.7 years). Of Canada’s 34 CMAs, Trois-Rivières also had the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and over, at 20.3%. The Peterborough CMA had the same proportion of persons aged 65 years and over as Trois-Rivières. The Saguenay and St. Catharines–Niagara CMAs were also among the oldest in Canada. The median age of their populations was respectively 45.1 and 44.6, and the proportion of persons aged 65 years and over was among the highest in Canada (18.5% and 20.0%).
The figure opposite shows the age pyramid for the Abbotsford-Mission CMA, where the proportion of young persons aged 0 to 14 years is the highest, along with the pyramid for Peterborough, which has the largest proportion of persons aged 65 years and over. The top of the pyramid, which is narrower for Abbotsford-Mission than for Peterborough, indicates how much more the aging of the population has advanced in the latter CMA. In addition to showing the size of the 0-to-14 age group for the Abbotsford-Mission CMA, a comparison of the two pyramids shows the relatively larger share of persons aged 30 to 45 in the same CMA. Contributing to the relative size of this age group are the recent arrival of immigrants and the gains owing to intraprovincial migration.
Persons 65 years and over outnumber those aged 0 to 14 years in more than one-third of CMAs
The aging of the population of CMAs can be seen in a number of ways. First, the median age of the population of CMAs rose by 1.8 years between July 1, 2003 and July 1, 2013. Also, the proportion of persons aged 65 years and over went from 12.1% to 14.2% during the same period, an increase of 2.1 percentage points. Additionally, the number of persons aged 65 years and over exceeded the number of persons aged 0 to 14 years in 13 of Canada’s 34 CMAs on July 1, 2013. In the past year, two new CMAs, Hamilton and Saint John, each saw their proportion of persons aged 65 years and over exceed the proportion of young persons.
An increase in the median age, combined with an increase in the proportion of persons aged 65 years and over, was seen in almost all of Canada’s CMAs. Saskatoon and Regina are the only CMAs where these two indicators remained stable between 2003 and 2013. During this period, the population aged nearly twice as fast in the CMAs of Windsor (+4.7 years), St. Catharines–Niagara (+4.3 years) and Saguenay (+4.1 years) than in Canada (+2.2 years) and in CMAs overall (+1.8 years).
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