Section 3: Census divisions
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The census divisions (CDs) with the highest growth ratesin the past year
Between July 1, 2009 and July 1, 2010, nearly two thirds of CDs had an increase in their population. Specifically, 190 of the 288 CDs experienced positive demographic growth. Conversely, 98 CDs saw their population decline during the same period.
The highest growth rates were in CDs scattered across Canada. In fact, almost all of the major regions were represented among the 10 CDs with the highest annual growth rates. Only the Atlantic Provinces had no CDs in the top 10.
Two of the three fastest-growing CDs were in Quebec. At the top of the list, the La Jacques-Cartier CD was far ahead with a growth rate of 60.6 per thousand, followed by Mirabel (35.4 per thousand), in third place nationally. Both CDs are on the outskirts of major urban centres (the Québec and Montréal CMAs, respectively). Hence, a large portion of their growth was probably due to urban sprawl, as reflected in their large net subprovincial migration gains. Natural increase was also a major factor, since the CDs are home to many young people.
Four of the CDs with the highest growth rates are in Western Canada. Manitoba's Division No. 3 (Winkler) registered a growth rate of 36.0 per thousand, second on the national list. British Columbia had two CDs in the top 10: Northern Rockies (32.3 per thousand) and Squamish-Lillooet (27.5 per thousand). In Saskatchewan, Division No. 11 (Saskatoon) was the fastest-growing CD, with a growth rate of 27.8 per thousand. Alberta was absent from the 10 fastest-growing CDs, although it had two on the list last year. A slump in interprovincial migration prevented a number of Alberta CDs from growing as fast as they did in 2008/2009.
In Northern Canada, Nunavut's three CDs stood out because of their steady growth in the 2009/2010 period. The CDs of Kitikmeot (32.7 per thousand), Baffin (32.5 per thousand) and Keewatin (28.4 per thousand) all enjoyed their highest growth rate in the past five years.
The Halton CD was the only one in Ontario that made the list, with a growth rate of 27.1 per thousand.
The census divisions with the highest rates of decline inthe past year
In the 2009/2010 period, seven of the 10 CDs with the largest rates of decline were in the Atlantic Provinces. The other three CDs on the list were in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The biggest decrease was observed in British Columbia's Stikine CD (-26.8 per thousand). However, it is a small CD, with a population of only 1,213 on July 1, 2010. As a result, it is sensitive to even minor variations.
The Shelburne CD in Nova Scotia ranked second with a decline of -17.7 per thousand. The province also had two other CDs on the list: Guysborough (-15.2 per thousand) and Digby (-14.7 per thousand).
Two CDs in Manitoba and Saskatchewan took the third and fourth places on the list: Manitoba's Division No. 20 (Swan River), with a growth rate of -17.5 per thousand, and Saskatchewan's Division No. 3 (Assiniboia), with a rate of -17.4 per thousand.
Rounding out the list were four CDs in Eastern Canada: two in Newfoundland and Labrador and two in New Brunswick. In Newfoundland and Labrador, Division No. 9 (St. Anthony) posted a rate of -17.0 per thousand, while Division No. 3 (Channel-Port aux Basques) had a rate of -13.9 per thousand. The two CDs with the highest rates of decline in New Brunswick were Victoria (-16.7 per thousand) and Restigouche (-16.3 per thousand).
In general, CDs that registered a sharp decline in population tended to have a net loss in internal migration. In most cases, the deficit was due to a net loss in migration exchanges with the other CDs in the same province. In addition, in almost all the CDs with the highest rates of population decline, there were more deaths than births. Those CDs also did not benefit from international migration. Their net levels of international migration were generally close to zero.
The youngest census divisions
For the purposes of this article, median age was used as an indicator of the aging of a population. The median age is an age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".
On July 1, 2010, 86 of the 288 CDs had median ages below the national average (39.7 years). In all those CDs, the proportion of the population under 18 years was larger than the proportion aged 65 and over. Six of the seven youngest CDs were in Nunavut and Manitoba. Saskatchewan, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador each had one CD on the list of the 10 youngest CDs in Canada.
Nunavut's Keewatin CD was the youngest CD in the country, with a median age of 22.7 years. Next on the list were Division No. 18 (La Loche and La Ronge) in Saskatchewan (23.7 years), Division No. 23 (Churchill) in Manitoba (24.1 years), the Kitikmeot CD (24.1 years) and Division No. 22 (Thompson) in Manitoba (24.4 years).
Canada's youngest CDs generally had large Aboriginal populations. Because of the Aboriginal population's high fertility rate, young people accounted for a substantial share of the population, which kept the median age low. In the eight CDs with the lowest median age in Canada, the under-18 age group made up at least one third of the population. Conversely, people aged 65 years and over accounted for only about 5% of the population in those CDs.
The oldest census divisions
On July 1, 2010, 202 of the 288 CDs had median ages that were higher than the Canadian average (39.7 years). Four of the 10 oldest CDs were in Quebec. Ontario had three, British Columbia two, and Manitoba one.
The CD with the highest median age was Mékinac (Quebec), making it the oldest CD in Canada, with a median age of 51.9 years. Ontario's Haliburton CD came second with a median age of 51.5 years, followed by British Columbia's Okanagan-Similkameen CD (51.1 years). The fourth and fifth places went to Division No. 1 (Alexander) in Manitoba and Les Basques in Quebec, both with a median age of 50.9 years.
It is worth noting that the median age crossed the symbolic threshold of 50 years in 15 Canadian CDs.
The percentage distribution of the population among the broad age groups also reflected the impact of population aging. Specifically, the proportion of people aged 65 years and over exceeded the proportion of people under 18 years in 83 of the 288 CDs. The majority of the CDs in which seniors (65 years and over) outnumbered young people (under 18 years) were in eastern and central Canada.
The Atlantic Provinces were the region with the largest number of CDs in which there were more seniors than young people. In fact, seniors outnumbered young people in 40% of the CDs in the Atlantic provinces (19 out of 47 CDs). In Quebec, 38 of 98 CDs (39%) had more seniors than young people, compared with 11 out of 49 (22%) in Ontario. In the Prairie Provinces, it was much less common for CDs to have more seniors than young people. Only 7% of CDs were in that situation (4 out of 60). In Alberta, young people outnumbered the elderly in all 18 CDs. The number of people aged 65 years and over was greater than the number of people under 18 years in 39% of British Columbia's CDs (11 out of 28) and in none of the CDs in the three territories (0 out of 6).
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