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According to the July 1, 2009 population estimates, nine of the 10 census divisions (CDs) with the highest annual growth rates were in Alberta (3), Quebec (3) and Manitoba (3). The other was in British Columbia.
Alberta’s CDs continued to grow at a rapid pace. Division No. 16 in Alberta, which includes the towns of Fort MacKay and Wood Buffalo, was the fastest-growing CD between July 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009 (56.3 per thousand). The province’s other two CDs in the top 10 were Division No. 15 (Jasper and Banff) in fifth place (34.8 per thousand) and Division No. 6 (Calgary) in ninth (31.4 per thousand).
Migration played a major role in this growth. Division No. 16’s population growth was primarily due to interprovincial migration, as many young people in their twenties, mostly men, moved to the CD. The CD’s net interprovincial migration between 2006 and 2009 was 2,771 men and 1,420 women aged 20 to 29. For Division Nos. 6 and 15, net international migration was the biggest contributor to growth. Migration gains were concentrated in the 25-45 age range for Division No. 6 and in the 30-45 age range for Division No. 15.
The CD with the second-highest growth rate was Quebec’s Jacques-Cartier CD, with 46.1 per thousand. The other two Quebec CDs in the top 10 were Rouville (33.0 per thousand) in sixth place and Côte-De-Beaupré (31.6 per thousand) in eighth.
The Jacques-Cartier (Lac-Beauport and Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury) and Côte-De-Beaupré (Boischatel and Château-Richer) CDs owed much of their population growth to the urban sprawl of nearby Québec City.
Manitoba’s Division No. 19 (Peguis 1B and Fort Alexander 3) ranked third with a growth rate of 40.3 per thousand. The province’s other two CDs in the top 10 were Division No. 3 (Winkler) in seventh and Division No. 10 (Macdonald) in tenth, with population growth rates of 32.4 and 29.6 per thousand respectively.
Subprovincial migration and natural increase were major factors in the growth of Division Nos. 10 and 19. Much of Division No. 10’s growth was due to the urban sprawl of nearby Winnipeg.
The Squamish-Lillooet CD took fourth place with a growth rate of 34.9 per thousand between July 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009. Like the Quebec and Manitoba CDs, it benefited from urban sprawl, since it is close to Greater Vancouver.
Seven of the 10 CDs were also among the 10 fastest-growing CDs in 2007/2008. Quebec’s Rouville and Côte-De-Beaupré CDs and Manitoba’s Division No. 10 moved into the top 10 in 2008/2009, displacing Stikine, British Columbia (first place in 2007/2008), Mirabel, Quebec (fifth place in 2007/2008), and York, Ontario (ninth place in 2007/2008).
According to the July 1, 2009 population estimates, seven of the 10 CDs with the highest rates of population decrease in the previous year were in the Maritimes. The others were in British Columbia, Manitoba and the Northwest Territories. The majority of the CDs with high rates of decline were in rural or remote areas.
British Columbia’s Stikine CD (Liard River 3) experienced a higher rate of population decrease (-29.2 per thousand) than any other CD in Canada. Next on the list were Nova Scotia’s Guysborough and Digby CDs, both at -19.0 per thousand. Nova Scotia had two other CDs in the top 10: Shelburne (-15.3 per thousand) in fifth place and Yarmouth (-13.4 per thousand) in tenth.
Rounding out the list were Manitoba’s Division No. 20 (-16.8 per thousand) in fourth place and New Brunswick’s Victoria and Restigouche CDs (both -14.8 per thousand) in sixth and seventh, followed by Inuvik in the Northwest Territories (-14.5 per thousand) and Division No. 3 in Newfoundland and Labrador (-13.4 per thousand).
For the purposes of this article, median age will be used as an indicator of population aging. The median age is the age, “x”, that divides the population into two equal halves, one older than “x” and the other younger than “x”.
According to the July 1, 2009 population estimates, 86 CDs (29.9% of all CDs) had a population whose median age was below the national average (39.5). Nunavut and Manitoba each had three CDs on the list of the 10 youngest CDs.
Nunavut’s Keewatin CD was the youngest CD in Canada, with a median age of 22.0. Next on the list were Division No. 18 (La Loche and La Ronge) in Saskatchewan (23.3), the Kitikmeot CD in Nunavut (23.4), and Division Nos. 23 (Pukatawagan 198 and Leaf Rapids) and 22 (Thompson) in Manitoba (both 23.9).
Many of the CDs with the youngest populations had large Aboriginal populations. The Aboriginal population’s higher fertility rate may account for the fact that those CDs had median ages well below the Canadian average.
On July 1, 2009, 202 CDs (70.1%) had median ages that were higher than the Canadian average (39.5). Most of them were far from the major urban centres. Three of the 10 oldest CDs in Canada were in Ontario. The others were scattered across the country.
Ontario’s Haliburton CD was the oldest CD in Canada, with a median age of 50.7. The Haliburton CD, which had a total population of 16,904, posted net subprovincial migration of 529 in the 40-64 age range between 2006 and 2009, and -182 in the 20-34 age range. Those migration figures contributed to its high median age. The combination of net out-migration of younger people and net in-migration of older people probably boosted the rate of population aging in some CDs.
Next on the list, all with median ages greater than 50, were Quebec ’s Mékinac (50.5), British Columbia ’s Okanagan – Similkameen (50.5), Quebec ’s Les Basques (50.4) and Nova Scotia ’s Guysborough (50.3).