Population growth: Subprovincial, 2010
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by Patrick Charbonneau, Geneviève Ouellet and Anne Milan
This section examines population growth at the subprovincial level. There was much variation in population growth at the subprovincial level between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010 with some areas growing more rapidly than others. Higher growth in some census divisions can be attributed to one or more factors such as urban sprawl around large metropolitan areas, net subprovincial migration as well as natural increase (Figure 1).
On July 1, 2010, 23,573,800 people, over two-thirds (69.1%) of the population, lived in one of Canada's census metropolitan areas (Table 1). Nearly 12 million people lived in three census metropolitan areas: Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver.
Table 1 Annual population estimates and demographic factors of growth by census metropolitan area, Canada, from July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010High population growth in Saskatchewan's census metropolitan areas
Between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010, the population growth rate was far higher in census metropolitan areas (14.7 per 1,000) than in non-census metropolitan areas (4.3 per 1,000). For Canada as a whole, the population growth rate was 11.5 per 1,000. Population growth varied widely across Canada's census metropolitan areas with some growing rapidly during the 2009/2010 period while others experienced negative growth. The Saskatoon (27.7 per 1,000), Vancouver (22.9 per 1,000) and Regina (22.3 per 1,000) census metropolitan areas had the highest growth rates in the country during the 2009/2010 period (Figure 2). The population of the Saskatoon census metropolitan area increased by 7,200 to a total of 265,300 on July 1, 2010 while the Regina census metropolitan area had a population of 215,100, up 4,800 from the previous year. Net international migration was responsible for the largest proportion of the growth in Saskatchewan's two census metropolitan areas. In fact, nearly half of the population increase was attributable to that factor (Figure 3). Saskatoon's international migration gain totalled 3,300. For the sake of comparison, that was higher than the international migration gains of census metropolitan areas that were much more populous than Saskatoon, such as Hamilton and Québec.
Figure 2 Population growth rates by census metropolitan area, Canada, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010
Figure 3 Factors of population growth by census metropolitan area, Canada, 2009/2010
While the population of Alberta's census metropolitan areas continued to grow, the pace of growth slowed slightly in 2009/2010. For example, Calgary's population increased by 22,300 last year, compared with just over 30,000 in each of the previous two periods. The same was true for Edmonton, as last year's increase of 19,900 was about one-third smaller than the previous year's growth. In 2009/2010, the two census metropolitan areas ranked fifth and seventh respectively on the list of Canada's fastest-growing census metropolitan areas. In contrast, between 2005 and 2009, Calgary and Edmonton were invariably in the top four. Even so, the growth rates of Alberta's census metropolitan areas (18.1 per 1,000 for Calgary and 17.0 per 1,000 for Edmonton) were above the average for Canada's census metropolitan areas (14.7 per 1,000). Although net international migration was down substantially compared with the previous year, it still accounted for an appreciable share of the Alberta census metropolitan areas' growth. Net international migration, the leading factor in Calgary's population growth, fell to second place in Edmonton, behind natural increase. Net interprovincial migration was sharply lower in 2009/2010. In both census metropolitan areas, it hovered around zero in 2009/2010, compared with nearly 5,000 in 2008/2009.
Some census metropolitan areas experienced decreases in their populations during the 2009/2010 period. That was the case for the Windsor (-3.4 per 1,000) and Greater Sudbury (-1.3 per 1,000) census metropolitan areas. The declines were due to net losses in internal migration exchanges. While there were population gains from natural increase and international migration, they were too small to offset the two census metropolitan areas' deficits in interprovincial and subprovincial exchanges.
Census metropolitan areas in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had population growth rates higher than the national average (11.5 per 1,000). Only the Kelowna (4.1 per 1,000) and Victoria (11.3 per 1,000) census metropolitan areas in British Columbia experienced more moderate growth than Canada as a whole.
In contrast, only eight of the 25 census metropolitan areas in Eastern and Central Canada (Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces) had growth rates above the national average. Even fewer census metropolitan areas in the eastern part of the country posted growth rates higher than the average for Canadian census metropolitan areas (14.7 per 1,000). Only the populations of the Toronto (18.8 per 1,000), Moncton (17.7 per 1,000) and Ottawa-Gatineau (16.8 per 1,000) census metropolitan areas increased faster than the Canadian census metropolitan area average. The high growth rates of the Moncton and Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan areas were due to a combination of natural increase and net gains in the three types of migration exchanges (international, interprovincial and subprovincial). Among eastern and central Canadian census metropolitan areas, the smallest growth rates were observed in those with populations of less than 500,000.
More than nine out of ten international migrants settle in a census metropolitan area
Last year, 92% of Canada's international migrants settled in census metropolitan areas. The remaining 8% went to non-census metropolitan areas even though these areas account for 31% of the Canadian population. While the proportion of immigrants who settled in non-census metropolitan areas remained small, it rose throughout the last decade. In the early 2000s, about 5% of immigrants decided to settle in non-census metropolitan areas. In 2009/2010, the proportion of international migrants who went to Calgary (6.0%), Winnipeg (3.8%) and Edmonton (3.5%) remained low compared with major centres such as Toronto (33.9%), Montréal (15.9%) and Vancouver (14.0%). Together, the latter census metropolitan areas took in nearly two-thirds of all new immigrants. However, that predominance masks the considerable increase for the census metropolitan areas in Western Canada. In some cases, the number of international migrants received each year doubled since the beginning of the 2000s. Ten years ago, some 9,000 international migrants settled in Calgary each year. The figure for the 2009/2010 period was 16,000. The Winnipeg and Edmonton census metropolitan areas each received about 3,000 to 4,000 immigrants at the beginning of the current decade. The most recent data for 2009/2010 show that nearly 10,000 newcomers chose to live in each census metropolitan area.
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