Quarterly Demographic Estimates
Appendices

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Table of contents

Glossary

Census coverage

Census net undercoverage: Difference between undercoverage and overcoverage.

Overcoverage: Number of persons who should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once.

Undercoverage: Number of persons who were intended to be enumerated in a census but were not.

Components of demographic growth

Any of the classes of events generating population movement variations. Births, deaths and migrations are the components responsible for the variation since they alter the total population.

Emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who has left Canada to establish a residence in another country, involving a change in usual place of residence. Emigration may be either temporary or permanent. Where the term is used alone, it references to a person's permanent emigration which involves severing residential ties with Canada and acquiring permanent residency in another country.

Error of closure

Difference between the postcensal estimate at the census date and the results of the census adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves).

Immigrant

Within the framework of this publication, the terms immigrant, landed immigrant and permanent resident are equivalent. An immigrant refers to a person who is or has ever been a landed immigrant (permanent resident) and who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Immigrants are either Canadian citizens by naturalization (the citizenship process) or permanent residents under Canadian legislation. Some immigrants have resided in Canada for a number of years, while others have arrived recently. Most immigrants are born outside Canada, but a small number are born in Canada. Also, children born in other countries to parents who are Canadian citizens that reside temporarily in another country are not included in the category as they become Canadian citizens at birth.

International migration

International migration represents movement of population between Canada and a foreign country which involves a change in the usual place of residence. A distinction is made with regard to immigrants, emigrants, returning emigrants, net temporary emigration and net non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration represents all movements from one province or territory to another involving a change in the usual place of residence. A person who takes up residence in another province or territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province or territory of origin and an in-migrant with reference to the province or territory of destination.

Natural increase

Variation in the population size over a given period as a result of the difference between the numbers of births and deaths.

Net international migration

Net international migration is obtained according to the following formula:

Immigrants + returning emigrants + net non-permanent residents– (emigrants + net temporary emigrants).

Net interprovincial migration

Net interprovincial migration represents the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province or territory.

Net non-permanent residents

Net non-permanent residents represent the variation in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates.

Non-permanent residents

A non-permanent resident is a person who is lawfully in Canada on a temporary basis and who holds a work, study or other (excluding visitor visas) permit issued for that person along with members of their family living with them. This group also includes individuals who seek refugee status upon or after their arrival in Canada and remain in the country pending the outcome of processes relative to their claim. Note that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada uses the term temporary resident rather than non-permanent resident.

Net temporary emigration

Net temporary emigration represents the variation in the number of temporary emigrants between two dates. Temporary emigration includes Canadian citizens and immigrants living temporarily abroad who have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada.

Population

Estimated population and population according to the census are both defined as being the number of Canadians whose usual place of residence is within that area, regardless of where they happened to be on Census Day. Also included are any Canadians staying in a dwelling in that area on Census Day and having no usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada, as well as those considered non-permanent residents.

Population estimate

  1. Postcensal: Population estimate produced by using data from the most recent available census adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves) and estimate of the components of demographic growth since that last census. This estimate can be preliminary, updated or final.
  2. Intercensal: Population estimate derived by using postcensal estimates and data adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves) of censuses preceding and following the year in question.

Population growth or total growth

Variation of population size between two dates. It can also be obtained by summing the natural increase, total net migration and if applicable, subtract residual deviation. It can be positive or negative.

Precocity error

Difference between preliminary and final estimate of a particular component in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for either population estimates or components of population growth.

Rate

Refers to the ratio of the number of events estimated in a year (t, t+i) to the average populations at the beginning and the end of the period. In this regard, births, deaths, immigration rates, etc. are calculated. Generally, the rates are expressed in per 1,000.

Census net undercoverage of population rate: Difference between the census undercoverage rate and the census overcoverage rate.

Demographic growth rate or population growth rate: Ratio of population growth between the year t and t+i, to the average population of both these years. The rate is generally expressed in per 1,000.

Overcoverage of population rate: The ratio of the number of persons who should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once to the total number of persons that should have been enumerated in the census. Generally, the rate is expressed in percentage.

Undercoverage of population rate: The ratio of the estimated number of persons not enumerated in the census (who were intended to have been enumerated) to the total number of persons that should have been enumerated in the census. Generally, the rate is expressed in percentage.

Residual deviation

Difference between demographic population growth calculated using intercensal estimates of population between two dates and that obtained by the sum of the components for the same period. This deviation results from the distribution of the error of closure between years within the quinquennial period. This distribution is calculated by taking into account the number of days within each month.

Returning emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant having previously emigrated from Canada and subsequently returned to the country.

Total net migration

Sum of net international and net interprovincial migration.

Vital statistics

Includes all the demographic events (births, deaths, marriages and divorces) for which there are a legal requirement to inform the Provincial or Territorial Registrar's Office.

Sources and remarks

Base population

May 10, 2016 Census of Population adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves.

2016 Census: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 2016, Catalogue no. 98-501-X.

Census net undercoverage: See The Daily, September 27, 2018.

Incompletely enumerated reserves: See The Daily, September 27, 2018.

Births and deaths

Statistics Canada, Centre for Population Heath Data.

Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography, Catalogue no. 91-002-X, Quarterly.

Births

Fertility rates for 2020 based on preliminary count of births by age group of the mother provided by the Centre for Population Health Data applied to the female population estimates by age group at the beginning of the quarter. Births for Quebec, British Columbia and Yukon were provided by their respective agencies.

Note: Following an assessment of unreleased data from the National Routing System (NRS) on births, it was decided not to make a systematic adjustment to the current method of estimating the number of births for the first quarter of 2022. From the information available, it was impossible to determine with certainty the existence of an impact strictly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We will continue to analyze the data over the coming months and revisit our decision in the next release.
Deaths

Mortality rates for 2019 based on preliminary count of deaths by age group and sex provided by the Centre for Population Health Data applied to the population estimates by age group and sex at the beginning of the quarter. Deaths for Quebec, British Columbia and Yukon were provided by their respective agencies.

Note: For the provinces and territories where the usual method was adjusted (data from Quebec, British Columbia and Yukon were not adjusted), the number of deaths was estimated from two sources: the provisional death counts from the Centre for Population Health Data (CPHD) when available, and the usual method with the addition of the number of COVID-19 deaths as published by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) when CPHD data were not available.

Immigration

Estimates are based on the immigrant files provided by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) according to information made available on May 17, 2022.

For methodological reasons, the total numbers of immigrants by province and territory released by the Demographic Estimates Program may differ from those released by IRCC. In the event of a discrepancy between the two sources, the official numbers of immigrants remain those released by IRCC.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method as IRCC data were received as usual and were of normal quality.

Emigration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

For estimates after 2018/2019, we:

Note: An adjustment was made to the usual estimation method in order to take into account the travel restrictions, in Canada and in other countries, imposed within the COVID-19 context. The adjustment was applied from March 2020 to March 2022. It was calculated using the number of immigrant visas in the United States issued from U.S. consulates in Canada. The ratio between the number of immigrant visas from the United States and preliminary estimates of emigration for 2017, 2018 and 2019 was applied to the number of issued visas from March 2020 to March 2022. This adjustment resulted in lower estimates of emigration for March 2020 and a marked decrease from April to December 2020. Adjusted data show a gradual recovery beginning in January 2021. The travel restrictions put in place have been relaxed or abolished over time and successive waves of COVID-19. These changes could indicate a return to emigration levels similar to those observed before the pandemic for the first quarter of 2022. To reflect this situation, another step of adjustment was used, which involved taking the average between the usual method and the adjusted method. These adjusted data also show a higher number of emigrants than the usual method for the first quarter of 2022.

Note that the estimates from March 2020 to December 2021 have not been revised.

Returning emigration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

For estimates after 2018/2019, we:

Note: Adjustments were made to the usual estimation method in order to take into account the travel restrictions, in Canada and in other countries, imposed within the COVID-19 context. The adjustments were applied from March 2020 to March 2022. It was calculated using two alternative sources: the number of entries in the country of Canadian citizens living abroad as given by the Frontier Counts data for Canadian airports with Primary Inspection Kiosks (PIK) and registered individuals in the Register of Canadians Abroad (ROCA). The adjustment was done in two parts. First, the monthly ratios between the number of PIK entries and preliminary estimates of returning emigration for 2018 and 2019 were applied to the number of entries of March 2020 to March 2022. Second, monthly ratios of the number of persons registered in ROCA returning to Canada and the number of entries from PIK from 2018 and 2019 were calculated. The monthly variations between the average ratios of 2018 and 2019 and those of 2020 were applied to the results of the first step. Note that only the first step of the adjustment (based on PIK data) was used since the third quarter of 2021. These adjustments resulted in a marked increase of the number of returning emigrants in March and April 2020 and a decrease in the following months.  The travel restrictions put in place have been relaxed or abolished over time and successive waves of COVID-19. These changes could indicate a return to levels of returning emigration similar to those observed before the pandemic for the first quarter of 2022. To reflect this situation, another step of adjustment was used, which involved taking the average between the method usual and the adjusted method. This adjusted data also shows a lower number of returning emigrants than the usual method for the first quarter of 2022.

Note that the estimates from March 2020 to December 2021 have not been revised.

Net temporary emigration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

For the postcensal estimates, we:

Note: An adjustment was made to the usual estimation method in order to take into account the travel restrictions, in Canada and in other countries, imposed within the COVID-19 context. The adjustment was applied from March 2020 to March 2022. Temporary departures and returns were adjusted independently. Temporary departures were adjusted in the same way as emigration but using non-immigrant visas from the United States. Temporary returns were adjusted in a similar way as returning emigration but by using individuals who were abroad for 180 to 364 days in ROCA. Similarly to the adjustment made for returning emigration, only the first step of the adjustment (based on PIK data) was used to estimate the number of temporary returns since the 3rd quarter of 2021.  The travel restrictions put in place have been relaxed or abolished over time and successive waves of COVID-19. These changes could indicate a return to temporary emigration levels similar to those observed before the pandemic for the first quarter of 2022. To reflect this situation, another step of adjustment was used, which involved taking the average between the usual method and the adjusted method. These adjusted data show a lower net temporary emigration than the usual method for the first quarter of 2022.

Note that the estimates from March 2020 to December 2021 have not been revised.

Non-permanent residents

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using the Global Case Management System (GCMS) from IRCC. These files, received on May 17, 2022, document the number of permit holders and asylum claimants.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method as IRCC data were received as usual and were of normal quality.

Interprovincial migration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

Notes: Due to a change in methodology, we remind you that the in- and out- interprovincial migrants cannot be summed in order to obtain a different period (for example, the sum of the quarterly estimates is not equal to the annual estimates). This method has been applied starting with July 2011.
No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method.



Table of contents

Acknowledgements
Notice to readers
Highlights - Main page
Data quality, concepts and methodology
Explanatory notes for the tables
Appendices
Related products

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